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Pilot HiringRecruiting Trends

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2009/2010 Trend 'The economy always comes back' ... Trend Final thought. If we accept the concept there will be another pilot shortage ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Pilot HiringRecruiting Trends


1
Pilot Hiring/Recruiting Trends
  • April 2009

2
Regional Airline Hiring
  • Past
  • Present
  • Future

3
Todays market
  • The market today has many experienced pilots
  • At ASA we have applicants with 7,000 plus hours
    and CRJ type ratings.

4
BUT!
  • Lets take a quick look at the past.

5
  • In 2007 and early 2008 most regional airlines had
    difficulty filling new hire classes!

6
2007 ASA Statistics
  • Only filled 9 of 25 classes in 2007
  • Why?
  • Not enough pilots
  • Why?
  • All regional airlines were hiring
  • Most were growing
  • Upgrade time

7
Great Screening Process
  • 96 screening questions related to what we are
    looking for in an applicant

8
In spite of our screening
  • 35 of the applicants cancelled, rescheduled or
    no showed the interview
  • 33 were rejected in the interview process

9
Results of low supply
  • Some regionals had a 50 failure rate
  • ASA had a 2.5 failure rate until Sept 07
  • Filled classes in fall 07 and spring 08 but made
    mistakes
  • Failure rate increased to 4

10
Last 6 classes
  • Average
  • Total hours Multi-engine hours
  • 1017 149
  • 969 360
  • 825 157
  • 918 119
  • 729 193
  • 476 58

11
Next Hiring Spree
  • Incredibly important to hire
  • A great employee
  • A great pilot

12
RFP World
  • Contract with majors
  • Many up for renewal within the next 5 years
  • To win a RFP
  • Run a good airline - CF, D0, A0, A14
  • Passenger survey
  • Cost competitive
  • Must hire a great employee

13
2009/2010 Trend
  • The economy always comes back
  • Expect last half of 2009 to see some
    improvement
  • Unheard of government intervention in US and
    around the world to help the economies
  • Fuel prices are down from last summer
  • Capacity reduced
  • Capacity cuts due to fuel prices came at perfect
    timing for falling ticket demand
  • Even with an 8 12 revenue decline some
    airlines will turn a profit in 2009

14
Trend - Continued
  • Will continue at a slow pace
  • some companies are still hiring
  • Improve as year goes on
  • Majors could be hiring in 2010
  • But
  • Watch for another pilot shortage

15
Possible Pilot Shortage?
  • Am I nuts?

16
Commercial License VS Hired
17
10 year summary
18
Shortfall
  • 19,000

19
Error 1
  • How many of the 89,600 pilots obtaining their
    commercial license were from foreign countries
    and will never fly in the US?

20
Error 2
  • How many pilots of the 108,600 pilots hired were
    counted twice or possibility three times?
  • Suggest errors cancel out

21
Error 3
  • How many pilots were hired by corporations that
    are not counted?

22
Age 65 Rule
  • By December 2012 well start seeing the effects
    of age 65.
  • preliminary results show
  • 15,000 in 10 years reach age 65
  • Additional ? will be lost due to medicals
  • How many retire at age 60?
  • Add regional airline pilot retirements

23
Next 10 Years
  • There is no reason to believe the industry will
    not average hiring 10,000 pilots a year over the
    next decade.

24
Prediction!
  • Within 2 years of the time the major airlines
    start hiring well have another pilot shortage.
  • Another key reason for shortage new student
    starts!

25
Student starts?
  • Have you checked with major aviation universities
    and flight schools in America today?
  • How many new students do they have?
  • How many students will fly in America when
    finished with training?
  • Flight schools out of business in the last few
    years?

26
Why the drastic decline?
  • Exaggerated negative news
  • Cost of flight training
  • Ability to obtain a loan start or complete
    training
  • 1st year pay
  • Repay student loans 10 to 30 yr pay out
  • House payment
  • Chance of furlough

27
What we need to do?
  • Encourage young pilots high schools, work as
    team with majors
  • Visit and encourage Aviation Universities
  • Visit and encourage Major Flight Schools
  • Work with OBAP and ACE program
  • Work with Women in Aviation
  • Down time now

28
Share good news
  • Some airlines still hiring
  • Economy runs in cycles
  • Growth after down cycle
  • Estimated number of pilots to be hired in next
    decade
  • Equipment they will fly in the future

29
  • What a great job we have in the airline industry.
  • Seniority system
  • Days off
  • Travel
  • Salaries
  • Fun

30
Encourage students!
  • Study hard
  • Stay away from drinking and driving
  • Stay away from drugs
  • Be a cut above
  • Dont blow a million dollar chance to be an
    airline pilot

31
More we can do
  • Improving selection system in our down time
  • Are we wasting money on selection procedures that
    are not working?
  • How do we know they are working?
  • Do we have a solid feedback loop?
  • Do we have predictive validity at every decision
    point in your selection process?
  • Decisions subjective or objective?

32
Wasting ?
  • How much money is being wasted hiring the wrong
    employee and/or wrong pilot?
  • How much does it cost the airline over a pilots
    career when you hire someone who is constantly
    failing checkrides?
  • What does it cost when you hire someone with a
    poor work ethic?

33
Trends - Flight time VS FTDs
  • Schools are using more time in FTDs to reduce
    training cost/lower education cost
  • Will industry stick with straight flight hours
    requirements for hiring?
  • Interns at ASA
  • Middle ground!

34
Trend Final thought
  • If we accept the concept there will be another
    pilot shortage
  • We in America need to be looking at MPL
  • Has been accepted and proven overseas.

35
Help
  • Any figures or thoughts you have related to
  • Age 65
  • Hiring
  • Failures in training
  • MPL
  • Encouraging young pilots
  • Direction of the industry

36
Questions?
  • Captain Dan Robertson (retired)
  • dan.robertson_at_flyasa.com
  • 404-856-1723
  • 404-702-0574
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