Real-Time Applications of a CMAQ-Related Photochemical Model Community Modeling and Analysis System Workshop, US EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC Oct 21-23, 2002 by John N. McHenry, Jeff Vukovich, Carlie Coats, Ted Smith, Don Olerud, and Aaron Sims

1
Real-Time Applications of a CMAQ-Related
Photochemical ModelCommunity Modeling and
Analysis System Workshop, US EPA, Research
Triangle Park, NCOct 21-23, 2002byJohn N.
McHenry, Jeff Vukovich, Carlie Coats, Ted Smith,
Don Olerud, and Aaron Sims The Environmental
Modeling Center at MCNC_at_ the North Carolina
Supercomputing CenterResearch Triangle Park, NC
27709-2889Contact mchenry_at_emc.mcnc.org
2
Outline

• Abstract
• History of Air Quality Prediction at MCNC
• Operational Model Overview
• Computational Forecast Domains
• Forecast Product Overview
• New England Air Quality Study 2002
• Preliminary Results for the SE US
• Highlights from Operational MM5 Evaluation
• Conclusions

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Abstract

• For the 5th year, MCNCs Environmental Modeling
  Center (EMC) has run an operational numerical air
  quality prediction (NAQP) system in real-time.
• The forecast system uses the Multiscale Air
  Quality Simulation PlatformReal Time (MAQSIP-RT)
  air quality model.
• MAQSIP-RT derives from the original CMAQ
  prototype co-developed by MCNC and EPA/NOAA-ORD
  in the 1990s.
• Forecasts were produced in support of NOAA-based
  research toward an operational air quality
  forecast system the New England Air Quality
  Study (NEAQS).
• Forecasts were also produced for a variety of
  state-based operational forecast clients (North
  Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas)
• Preliminary results are encouraging and suggest
  that MAQSIP-RT is an important new tool in
  understanding the evolution of real-time air
  quality.

4
A Little History Environmental Modeling at MCNC

• MCNC began as the Microelectronics Center of
  North Carolina in Research Triangle Park, NC
• MCNC is a private, non-profit institution
  bridging the worlds of science and commerce,
  providing concepts and transferring research
  ideas into the marketplace
• Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) staff of 25
  meteorologists, atmospheric chemists, and HPCC
  experts
• The EMC is housed at the North Carolina
  Supercomputing Center, which is on the MCNC
  campus
• The EMC historically maintains a close working
  relationship with EPA RD/NOAA-ORD, RTP Office,
  especially in the area of photochemical model
  development, application, analysis, and
  evaluation (e.g. CMAQ and MAQSIP)

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A Little History EMC at MCNC (cont)

• Environmental Modeling Center Staff and Hardware
  located in the Supercomputing Building

6
A Little History EMC at MCNC (cont)

• Supercomputing Building (North Carolina
  Supercomputing Center)

7
Operational Model Overview

• Models used
• MAQSIP-RT Photochemical Model
• New in 2002 Corrected earlier tendency toward
  ozone over-prediction on marginal air quality
  days, where partly cloudy skies have a
  significant influence, by improving treatment of
  cloud attenuation effects.
• New in 2002 Activated AIRNOW ozone monitor data
  assimilation system to initialize MAQSIP-RT
• Sparse-Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)
• BEIS-3,NET-99 Point/Area, Mobile-5
• All emissions online including point-source
  specific plume rise
• PSU/NCAR MM5V3.4 initialized with NCEP/Eta
  Analysis
• Computing dedicated 24p O3800 expansion planned
  in Spring 2003

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Operational Model Overview

• How MAQSIP-RT differs from CMAQ System Aspects
• Ozone data-assimilation using AIRNOW monitor data
• Robust/redundant model initialization in
  real-time
• Automated generation of analysis/forecast
  products
• Fast enough to meet operational forecast
  deadlines
• Automated error-recovery
• High-temporal resolution input of meteorological
  forecast data using the MCPL output module (see
  Coats, Section 7, Paper 4 MCPL An I/O API
  Output Module for MM5, Wednesday, October 23,
  930AM)
• Highly configurable nesting strategy

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Operational Model Overview

• How MAQSIP-RT differs from CMAQ Model Aspects
• Sophisticated optimized cloud package (KF-deep,
  McHenry-shallow, resolved, sub-grid-layer all
  interacting simultaneously)
• Sophisticated photolysis
• Online spectral calculation of clear-sky J
• Advanced cloud-optics interactions with J
• Online calculation of fractional land-cover-based
  dry deposition velocities
• Specialized treatment of shoreline-grid-cell PBL
  characteristics
• Optimized advection, diffusion, and QSSA chemical
  solvers
• Fully parallelized using OpenMP
• Latitude/elevation/month lateral BCs for
  coarse-most grid
• High Temporal Resolution Time-stepped BCs for
  all nests
• Latitude/month diffusive top boundary condition
  for all nests

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Computational Forecast Domains

• MM5 Domains 45/15/5 km

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Computational Forecast Domains

• MAQSIP-RT grids windows into MM5 domains
• Example 45km East-of-Rockies Grid Showing
  Terrain Height

45km MAQSIP East-of-Rockies Grid
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Computational Forecast Domains

• MAQSIP-RT grids windows into MM5 domains
• Example 15km NE Corridor Grid Showing Terrain
  Height

15km MAQSIP NE Corridor Grid
13
Computational Forecast Domains

• MAQSIP-RT grids windows into MM5 domains
• Example 15km SE US Grid Showing Terrain Height

15km MAQSIP SE US Grid
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Forecast Product Overview

• Forecast Products (Website Delivered)
• MAQSIP-RT Nested Model Runs
• 48-hour 45km-scale forecasts (Eastern 2/3 of US)
• 24-hour 15km-scale forecasts (NE, SE, Texas)
• 14- or 24-hour 5km-scale forecasts (NH,
  Birmingham,Houston)
• Animated Forecast Maps
• Chemical (MAQSIP-RT) Parameters
• Surface with Wind Vectors
• Ozone
• CO
• NOx, NOy
• Upper Air with Wind Vectors
• Ozone

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Forecast Product Overview

• Forecast Products (Continued)
• Animated Forecast Maps MM5
• Meteorological (60hr fcsts twice daily)
• Surface
• Precip (Convective/Non-convective)
• Isotachs/Vectors
• RH/T/Vectors
• MSLP 2m Td, T
• UPA
• 300/500/850mb heights/vectors/isotachs
• 500mb Abs Vort
• 700mb Height/RH
• Other
• Convective Cloud Tops PBL Height
• SkewTs at various stations

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Forecast Product Overview

• Forecast Products (Continued)
• Static Forecast Maps MAQSIP-RT
• Peak 1-hour Average Ozone colored according to
  EPA categorical forecast codes (green/yellow/orang
  e/red/purple)
• Peak 8-hour Average Ozone colored according to
  EPA categorical forecast codes (green/yellow/orang
  e/red/purple)
• Delivery Schedule
• 12z, 45/15km grids Peak 1-hour/8-hour maps
  complete by 115pm EDT animations later
• 00z, 45/15/5km grids All products by 430am EDT

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New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS)
Operational MM5 Forecasts

• MM5 results extracted at selected profiler sites
  were supplied to Jim Wilczak at NOAA/FSL for
  incorporation into experimental ensemble
  temperature forecast product(s). MCNCs version
  of the MM5 was run at 3 resolutions, depicted
  above. The outer domain was typically run for
  60-hours at 45km, twice daily. The large interior
  (15km) domain was run for 48(36) hrs at 12z(00z),
  and the highest resolution (5km) domains were run
  for either 14hrs (Birmingham/Houston) or 24hrs
  (New England) at 00z. The MCNC MM5 was
  initialized with the Eta-EDAS AWIP3D (40km)
  dataset and used a 6-hour dynamic initialization
  based on gridded Eta forecast data. The 12z run
  utilized 06z AVN (GFS) large-scale boundary
  conditions, whereas the 00z run used 00z Eta
  boundary conditions. No special meteorological
  data was incorporated. The MCNC MM5 was
  configured with the OSU-LSM using Eta-based
  soil-moisture/soil-temperature fields, with
  adjustments to account for differences in
  soil-texture maps between the Eta and MM5
  versions of the LSM. The MRF PBL scheme was used,
  along with the KF deep convection scheme, the
  RRTM long-wave scheme, the Dudhia short-wave
  scheme, and the Reisner-1 microphysics scheme.
  Output was provided in real-time through an
  ftp-server to FSL in Boulder, CO.

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New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS)
Operational MM5 and SMOKE Forecasts

• In support of the ARL hybridized air quality
  forecasting system, MCNC supplied meteorological
  and emissions data to Ariel Stein at ARL. A
  baseline data-stream was developed in the
  May/June timeframe and operational datasets were
  made available beginning July 1. These continued
  through the end of the NEAQS. The meteorological
  data was derived from the operational MM5
  forecasts produced at MCNC. The emissions data
  resulted from operational runs of the SMOKE
  emissions processing/modeling system, driven by
  outputs from the MM5 forecasts. (This allows
  meteorologically sensitive emissions rates to be
  affected by forecast meteorology.) Output was
  provided via an ftp-server to ARL in Silver
  Spring, MD. Because the same meteorological data
  was used to drive the MCNC MAQSIP-RT model in
  real-time, a direct comparison of the hybrid
  model results and the MAQSIP-RT model results is
  possible.

19
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS)
Operational MAQSIP-RT Forecasts

• A continuous archive of forecasts was produced
  beginning July 1 and extends through Sept 30,
  2002. Forecasts were run twice daily, at 00z and
  12z. MCNC provided merged datasets at all three
  scales to Stu McKeen at FSL for real-time plots
  against NEAQS field data being collected at
  surface locations and aboard the NOAA ship Ron
  Brown.
• Further, forecast maps and animations were made
  available over the MCNC Web-site located at
  http//emc.mcnc.org/ SECMEP/projects, under the
  heading NOAA New England AIRMAP Field Study, for
  any NOAA investigator. These maps were used by
  Wayne Angevine (Aeronomy Lab), who directed a
  profiler site near Durham, NH, and provided
  forecasts to the Ron Brown. An example of this
  type of plot is shown in Figure 3, compared
  against verification as depicted by the gridded
  surface-monitor-based observations disseminated
  through EPAs AIRNOW Web-site (http//www.epa.gov/
  airnow).
• MCNC conducted the 00z 45km runs in parallel,
  using (or not) surface monitor-based data
  assimilation. In the data-assimilation algorithm
  currently available at MCNC, hourly data from
  more than 1000 surface ozone monitors east of the
  Rockies is retrieved shortly after 7PM EDT. These
  data are processed and error-checked before being
  supplied to a Lagrangian transport model. The
  Lagrangian model utilizes the 12z MM5 forecast
  meteorological winds and daytime mixing depths to
  advect the ratio of observed-to-forecast (from
  the 12z run) ozone values each hour from each
  monitor, starting at 10AM LDT. Each ratio-event
  results in a downstream trajectory envelope which
  is allowed to have a vertical extent consistent
  with the forecast mixed layer depth. At the end
  of the assimilation cycle, the mean ratio along
  each trajectory envelope, including all
  intersecting envelopes, is calculated, and then
  applied to the first-guess ozone field at 00z
  from the 12z forecast run. The resulting values
  at 00z are used to initialize the forecasts.

20
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 5

• Aug 5 1st day forecast vs. AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

21
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 10 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs
  (right)
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

22
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 11 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

23
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 12 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

24
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 13 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

25
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 13 1st day forecast (left) versus vs. AIRNOW
  obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

26
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 14 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

27
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 New England Air
Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary Results Aug
10-18

• Aug 14 1st day forecast (left) vs AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

28
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 15 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

29
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 15 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

30
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 16 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

31
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 16 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

32
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 17 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

33
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 17 1st day forecast vs. AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

34
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 18 2nd day forecast (left) versus 1st day
  forecast (right) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

35
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 18 1st day forecast (left) AIRNOW obs
• 15km NE MAQSIP-RT

36
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• Aug 19 1st day forecast (left) vs. AIRNOW obs
• 45km MAQSIP-RT

37
New England Air Quality Study Real-Time Forecast
Time-Series Example

• Example FSL-generated plot of multiple MCNC
  MAQSIP-RT 15km forecasts versus measurement data
  collected at the Harvard Forest Surface Site on
  August 9-10, 2002 during the New England Air
  Quality Study.

38
New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) Preliminary
Results MAQSIP-RT Forecasts Aug 10-18

• MAQSIP-RT shows good skill for many days
• Forecast patterns tend to improve with more
  recent forecasts
• Forecast time-series at NEAQS ground sites are
  encouraging.
• MM5 seems to overdo the sea-breeze on several
  occasions

39
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 2

40
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 3

41
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 4

42
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 5

43
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 6

44
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 7

45
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 8

46
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 9

47
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Aug 2-10 SE US

• 15km SE Day 2 Fcst vs Obs Aug 10

48
RTOFS 2002 Early September Case Study
RTOFS Max 8-Hour Forecast (00Z Run)
Max 8-Hour Observations
RTOFS to Obs Comparison Max 8-Hour
Slide 11
49
MAQSIP-RT SE 15km Grid, 2002 Preliminary
Conclusions

• MAQSIP-RT shows good regional skill, but is
  biased somewhat high on some days near and
  downwind of both Atlanta and Birmingham and
  biased somewhat low on some days in NC and TN.
  These urban-corridor biases tend to occur
  simultaneously, suggesting either meteorological
  or emissions inventory issues.
• Urban and downwind urban corridor emissions
  inventories, especially Ga, Alabama, NC and TN
  may need improvement.
• In general
• Subtle effects (presence/absence of shallow
  convection, weak synoptic transitions, persistent
  moisture pools at mid-layers) are significant if
  not dominant in the SE for any given summer
• SE US forecasting may be more challenging due to
  largely mesoscale nature of the weather in
  summertime

50
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 7-10 Dallas

51
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 7-10 Dallas

52
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 7-10 Dallas

53
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 7-10 Dallas

54
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 7 SW 15km Grid Day 1 Fcst

55
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 8 SW 15km Grid Day 1 Fcst

56
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 9 SW 15km Grid Day 1 Fcst

57
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• July 10 SW 15km Grid Day 2 Fcst

58
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• July 12 Day 1 Fcst

59
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• July 14 Day 1 Fcst

60
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• July 15 Day 1 Fcst

61
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Aug 8 Day 1 Fcst

62
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Aug 9 Day 1 Fcst

63
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Aug 10 Day 1 Fcst

64
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Aug 11 Day 1 Fcst

65
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Sept 10 Day 1 Fcst

66
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Sept 11 Day 1 Fcst

67
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Sept 12 Day 1 Fcst

68
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Sept 13 Day 1 Fcst

69
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)

• Sept 14 Day 1 Fcst

70
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• Houston Sept 10-14,2002

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MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• Houston Sept 10-14,2002

72
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• Houston Sept 10-14,2002

73
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• Houston Sept 10-14,2002

74
MAQSIP-RT Forecasts, 2002 Texas, (Arkansas,
Oklahoma)Parts of July and September

• Houston Sept 10-14,2002

75
MAQSIP-RT SW 15km (Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas) Grid,
2002 Preliminary Conclusions

• MAQSIP-RT shows very good regional skill in the
  SW plains
• Forecast for Dallas July 7-10 event outstanding
• Forecast for Houston Sept 11-14 event quite good
• Results for Arkansas and Oklahoma encouraging

76
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation Highlights

• Evaluation by MOS Region
• Evaluation over whole Domain

77
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation
Highlights Max Temperature
Eta/MM5 statistical plots for maximum
temperatures. The left plots represent Eta/MM5
(45-km) coincident sites, while the right plots
represent Eta/MM5 (15-km) coincident sites. The
center legend applies to both the left and right
plots.
78
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation
Highlights Min Temperature
Eta/MM5 statistical plots for minimum
temperatures. The left plots represent Eta/MM5
(45-km) coincident sites, while the right plots
represent Eta/MM5 (15-km) coincident sites. The
center legend applies to both the left and right
plots.
79
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation
Highlights QPF
Eta/MM5 statistical plots for six-hourly
precipitation. The left plots represent Eta/MM5
(45-km) coincident sites, while the right plots
represent Eta/MM5 (15-km) coincident sites. The
center legend applies to both the left and right
plots. In the legend, "ets" represents equitable
threat scores, and HK represents the Hanssen and
Kuipers ("true skill') score.
80
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation
Highlights QPF
Number of sites in which the amount of observed
precipitation was more closely predicted by Eta
or MM5 for the first eight months of 2002. Note
that we polled a limited number of Eta forecasts
for January and February, most of which were
located in the region surrounding the Carolinas.
The bolded numbers indicate a closer match to
observations.
81
Operational MM5 Statistical Evaluation
Highlights QPF
Average accumulated precipitation totals for each
analyzed month in 2002. The calculation was made
using all valid 6-hourly values for which MM5,
Eta, and observations were available. Note that
we polled a limited number of Eta forecasts for
January and February, thus the extremely low
averages. The bolded numbers indicate a closer
match to observations.
82
MM5 Statistical Evaluation Highlights

• For the key forecast variables (i.e. max/min
  temperature, precipitation), the EMCMM5 either
  outperforms or performs comparably to the
  NCEP-Eta model. Daily maximum temperature
  prediction skill is essentially equivalent,
  evaluated for both the 45km and 15-km EMC MM5
  models and their domains. The EMC-MM5 is better
  able to capture nocturnal temperature minima,
  thus providing better minimum temperature
  guidance to an operational forecaster.

83
MM5 Statistical Evaluation Highlights

• Though the Eta categorical six-hourly (rain
  versus no-rain) skill scores are marginally
  better than the EMC-MM5, these scores do not
  reflect the quantitative bias present in the Eta
  model. The NCEP-Eta model is significantly worse
  at predicting accumulated precipitation at the
  12km scale than is the EMC-MM5 at 45km, being
  biased high in amounts by about 29, as compared
  to 21 for the EMC-MM5. The NCEP-Eta model also
  over-precipitates when compared to the 15-km EMC
  MM5, as reflected in a better overall bias score
  for the EMC 15-km MM5.

84
MAQSIP-RT User Testimonies

• George Bridgers (NC-DENR) Im just now getting
  all the data into the office from around the
  state yesterday, but the model has done an
  outstanding job the past several daysreally all
  year. July 31, 2002
• Bill Ryan (PSU) For future reference, the NAQP
  performed excellently this week. It killed my
  forecast 4 of 5 days. July 19, 2002
• Bryan Lambeth (TCEQ) Overall, the model
  performance looks qualitatively good this year.
  July 29, 2002
• Emily Harris (ADEQ) This is a wonderful tool
  for our at-risk populations to assist in planning
  their outdoor activities during ozone season.
  Oct 7, 2002

85
Overall Conclusions

• The MCNC operational MM5 is as good or better
  than the NCEP Eta model in daily max/min
  temperature forecasts for the entire year 2002
  (to present).
• The MCNC operational MM5 produces more reliable
  amounts of quantitative precipitation than does
  the Eta model for the entire year 2002 (to
  present).
• The MCNC operational MAQSIP-RT has become a
  reliable numerical ozone forecast tool over much
  of the nation east of the Rockies during summer
  2002.
• Subscriptions are available to any state or
  agency involved in ozone forecasting.

86
Contacts and Web Address

• Web address and Contact Information
• http//emc.mcnc.org/projects/SECMEP/index.html
• Multiscale MAQSIP-RT Forecasting Products
• Email mchenry_at_emc.mcnc.org
• Voice [phone]