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EXPORT PROMOTION BUREAU LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGY

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Textile & Garment Foreign Trade 'stable' since 1997 ... Markets will be more of the 'garment assembly countries' Home textiles in EU and USA. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: EXPORT PROMOTION BUREAU LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGY


1
EXPORT PROMOTION BUREAULAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGY
ANALYSIS OF THE POST-QUOTA 2004 TEXTILE
SCENARIO 27 MAY 2003 Keith STUART-SMITH Gherzi
Textil Organisation, Zurich, Switzerland
2
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYENTER THE BRAVE NEW WORLD
31 December 2004 1 January 2005
MULTI FIBRE ARRANGEMENT (- MFA / ATC )
LIBERALIZED TRADE (- WTO / GATT)
ESTABLISHED MARKET ENVIRONMENT 30 YEARS
NEW MARKET ENVIRONMENT BRAVE NEW WORLD
3
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYMFA
to WTO THE NEW REGIME
31 December 2004 1 January 2005
MULTI FIBRE ARRANGEMENT (- MFA / ATC )
LIBERALIZED TRADE (- WTO / GATT)
  • RESIDUAL DUTIES
  • REGIONAL TRADE PACTS
  • - RTP
  • FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
  • -FTA
  • SOCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY
  • LABOUR SAFEGUARDS
  • RETAILERS REQUIREMENTS
  • PREFERRED SUPPLIERS
  • QUANTITATIVE QUOTAS
  • IMPORT DUTIES
  • BILATERAL AGREEMENTS

4
LAHORE, PAKISTAN - SEMINAR, 27 MAY 2003.
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYCONSEQUENCES OF
CHANGE MFA to WTO
5
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYTEXTILE / GARMENT
EXPORTS 1980 2001(US bn)
  • Textile Garment Foreign Trade stable since
    1997
  • Period since 1998 - financial crisis in Far East,
    recession in several markets- Japan, Germany,
    Italy
  • Garment exports in majority, expected to grow
    fastest
  • Textiles, includes yarns, woven and knitted
    fabrics and home textiles
  • Garments includes woven and knitted garments
  • Source WTO

6
LAHOREE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYTEXTILE
IMPORTS and EXPORTS MAJOR MARKETS (US bn)
  • TEXTILE EXPORTS
  • 1990 2001
  • World 104 147
  • EU 50.8 50.5
  • USA 5.0 10.5
  • China 7.2 16.8
  • S. Korea 6.1 10.9
  • Taiwan 6.1 9.9
  • Turkey 1.4 3.9
  • Switzerland 2.6 1.4
  • PAKISTAN 2.7 4.5
  • India 2.2 6.2
  • And Indonesia, Japan, Thailand, Canada, etc
  • Source WTO
  • TEXTILE IMPORTS
  • 1990 2001
  • World 104 147
  • EU 50.4 45.6
  • USA 6.7 15.4
  • China 5.3 12.6
  • Mexico 1.0 6.0
  • S. Korea 1.9 3.1
  • Canada 2.3 3.8
  • Morocco 0.4 1.5
  • Poland 0.3 1.5
  • Russia - 1.3
  • And Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Laos, Lesotho,
    Madagascar, Mauritius, etc

7
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYGARMENT IMPORTS and EXPORTS MAJOR
MARKETS (US bn)
  • GARMENT EXPORTS
  • 1990 2001
  • World 108.1 195
  • EU 40.8 47.1
  • USA 2.6 6.0
  • Mexico 0.6 8.0
  • China 9.7 36.7
  • Hong Kong 9.3 9.3
  • Turkey 3.3 6.6
  • PAKISTAN 1.0 2.1
  • India 2.5 6.5
  • Bangladesh 0.6 5.1
  • And Magreb, E. Europe, etc
  • GARMENT IMPORTS
  • 1990 2001
  • World 108.1 195
  • EU 56.8 79.3
  • USA 27.0 66.4 Canada 2.4
    3.9
  • China -
    1.3
  • Hong Kong 0.8 1.9
  • Japan 8.7 19.1
    Switzerland 3.4 3.2
  • S. Korea 0.2 1.6
  • Mexico 0.6 3.8
  • Also Russia, Singapore, Dubai, Norway,etc
  • Source WTO

8
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR
EPB
EXPORT LED STRATEGY
GROWTHWORLD TEXTILE GARMENT EXPORTS
19902006 projected (US bn)
  • KEY TEXTILES- yarn,
  • fabrics, home
  • textiles
  • CLOTHING
  • TEXTILE EXPORTS small increase projected in
    coming 3 years
  • CLOTHING EXPORTS growth projected to 2006 as
    high cost country capacities close
  • Source WTO, Gherzi

9
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYFABRICS
BY TYPE 1980 2001(mn tons)
  • MILL FIBRE USAGE UP 10 X SINCE 1950
  • KNITTED WOVEN FABRICS IN 2001
  • TECHNICAL TEXTILES FAST GROWING SINCE 1990
  • Source Gherzi

10
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYCHANGES IN EU TEXTILE IMPORT SOURCES
(US bn)
  • Textile imports declined progressively thru the
    1990s, as production capacity for fabric/
    garments declined
  • Inter EU imports declined
  • Extra EU imports increased their market shares
    although volume was constant in real terms
  • Source WTO

11
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYCHANGES
IN EU GARMENT IMPORT SOURCES (US bn)
  • EU imports fell slightly after 1999
  • Extra EU imports increased from E. Europe and
    from Magreb countries
  • Intra EU imports fell
  • Source WTO

12
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYMAJOR
GARMENT IMPORTERS HOLD 88 SHARE OF WORLD TRADE
(US bn)
  • GLOBAL GARMENT IMPORTS
  • 2001
  • EU 53 41
  • USA 25 34
  • JAPAN 8 10
  • MEXICO 0.6 2
  • CANADA 2 2
  • Total 88.3 88.5
  • Other countries Australia, New Zealand, Norway,
    Russia, Singapore, S. Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan
  • Source WTO.

2001
13
LAHORE, PAKISTAN - SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003.
EPB
POST MFA GROWTH
STRATEGYPAKISTAN TEXTILE and GARMENT EXPORTS
2001 (US mn)
  • PAKISTAN TEXTILE EXPORTS 2001
  • Market Total Imports ex
    imports Pakistan imports
  • Canada 3811 84 2.2
  • USA 15429 1057 6.8
  • EU 32020 995 3.1
  • Japan 4747 109
    2.5
  • Others 90993 3280
    3.6
  • Total 147000 4525
    3.1
  • 72 exports to others markets. This share will
    probably continue.
  • Markets will be more of the garment assembly
    countries Home textiles in EU and USA.
  • Source WTO
  • PAKISTAN GARMENT EXPORTS 2001
  • Market Total Imports ex
  • imports Pakistan
    imports
  • Canada 3922 70 1.8
  • USA 66391 1101 1.7
  • EU 79263 834 1.1
  • Japan 19148 16 0.1
  • Others 26276 3280 3.6
  • Total 195000 2136 1.1
  • 1.1 of garment exports to others markets.
    Share should grow as WTO member countries open up
    to garment imports
  • Main markets to continue to dominate. Japan will
    be a difficult market
  • Source WTO

14
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYCOMPETING
GARMENT SUPPLIERS BALUE OF RTP, FTA and FDI
ASIA Bangladesh Cambodia, China Hong Kong,
India Indonesia, Laos Macau (Malaysia) Philippines
(S.Korea), Sri Lanka (Taiwan) Thailand, Vietnam
E. EUROPE Hungary Poland Romania Turkey
CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN Dominican Rep El
Salvador Guatemala Honduras (Mexico) Caribbean
MAGREB Morocco Tunisia
AGOA 34 Sub-Saharan African countries
OTHERS Brazil, Russia, Egypt
15
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003.
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYREGIONAL
TRADE PACTS - IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE
NAFTA Canada, Mexico, USA
EU 15 W. European countries 25 plus Associates
ASEAN 15 countries
OCE Turkey,Pakistan Iran, 6 CIS
CARICOM 14
APEC- 18 Asia Pacific countries
EFTA 3 countries
SAARC Pakistan India Bangladesh Buthan Sri
Lanka Maldives
ANDEAN PACT 4 countries
VISEGRAD. 5 East European countries
CIS
MERCOSUL Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
SAPTA
AFRICAN COMESA, IOC ECOWAS, SACU CEEAC, SADC
16
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYFREE TRADE
AGREEMENTS IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE
Typically, several Free Trade Pacts are in force
others under discussion, e.g.
COTONOU replaced LOMÉ TREATY - ACP countries-
duty free/ quota free access to EU
AGOA privileged market access to USA for 34
Sub-Saharan African countries. Country of origin
rules ...next slide
GSP MARKET ACCESS for LDCS,, e.g. Bangladesh to
EU, Canada
Bi-lateral Agreementse.g. EU and Chile, BD and EU
Under discussion ASEAN China, Japan, Korea
Under discussion India to become Associate
member of ASEAN
And others ........
17
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGY
AGOA RESULTS and ADVANTAGES
  • GARMENT EXPORTS 2001
  • (US mn)
  • US Total
  • Kenya 64.6 79.0
  • Lesotho 214.5 215.0
  • Mauritius 238.2 607.8
  • Madagascar 178.0 382.0
  • S. Africa 175.2 174.8
  • Source US Statistics
  • ADVANTAGES
  • Foreign direct investment
  • Export processing zones
  • Competitive labour costs
  • Tax free operations
  • Lomé / Cotonou Agreement (APC)
  • AGOA

18
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYCONSTRAINTS
FACING (MANY) PAKISTAN EXPORTERS
19
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH STRATEGYAVERAGE EXPORT
UNIT PRICE REALIZATION - LOW
  • Example
  • UK MARKET- MENS COTTON TROUSERS
  • market Av. unit price
  • All imports 100 5.97
  • -intra EU 16
    11.15
  • .extra EU 84
    4.99
  • -PAKISTAN 5.8
    3.07
  • -Bangladesh 8.1
    4.54
  • -Sri Lanka 4.4
    4.88
  • -Indonesia 1.9
    5.41
  • -Hong Kong 13.4
    5.14
  • -China 2.5
    3.95
  • Source UK National Statistics
  • Example
  • GERMAN MARKET- COTTON T-SHIRTS
  • market Av. unit
    price DM
  • All imports 100 5.31
  • -intra EU 15.5 8.65
  • -extra EU 84.5 4.69
  • -PAKISTAN 1.4 3.02
  • -Turkey 24.4 6.10
  • -India 3.7 6.04
  • -Bangladesh 17.8
    3.27
  • -Hong Kong 2.1 7.53
  • -China 1.4 8.15
  • Source German National Statistics

20
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYTEXTILE and GARMENT EXPORTS TARGET
MARKETS
1. TEXTILES
  • YARNS
  • China
  • Bangladesh
  • Mauritius
  • Madagascar
  • Vietnam
  • EU (reducing)
  • Mexico
  • Morocco
  • Russia
  • others
  • GREY FABRICS
  • China
  • Hong Kong
  • Bangladesh
  • Mexico
  • Malaysia
  • Russia
  • Canada
  • Poland
  • Korea
  • others
  • Dyed/Print Fabrics
  • Garmenting lands - Bangladesh, Laos, Cambodia,
    Dubai, Bahrain, S. Africa, China, Mauritius,
    Lesotho, Kenya, Madagascar, Sri Lanka,
  • 2. Furnishings EU, EFTA, USA, Norway, Australia,
    Russia, New Zealand, Others
  • HOME TEXTILES
  • EU/ EFTA
  • USA, Japan
  • Norway
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • Russia
  • Others
  • 2003 gt US 1 bn !!! Bed linen

21
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYTEXTILE and GARMENT EXPORTS TARGET
MARKETS
  • 2. GARMENTS
  • TRADITIONAL GARMENT IMPORTING COUNTRIES
    (HIGHER COST
  • COUNTRIES) EU, EFTA, USA, JAPAN,
    NORWAY, AUSTRALIA, NEW
  • ZEALAND
  • NEWER GARMENT IMPORTING COUNTRIES S. KOREA,
    TAIWAN,
  • MALAYSIA, RUSSIA, CHINA,
  • LOWER COST COUNTRIES / WTO MEMBERS INDIA,
    INDONESIA,
  • BANGLADESH, NIGERIA, etc

22
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYGOVERNMENT POLICY FRAMEWORK AREAS TO
BE ADDRESSED
NATIONAL POLICY 5 year/ 1 year plans, Export
markets, Domestic market needs, Competitive
positioning, Strategies
FISCAL POLICY Import duties, Production taxes,
Sales taxes, Income/ other taxes, Exemptions,
Sector taxes, Location taxes, Price support
controls
INVESTMENT POLICY Incentives, Tax concessions,
Promotions, Machines/ spares/ Raw materials,
other inputs
GOVERNMENT POLICY FRAMEWORK
FINANCIAL POLICY Credits, Natioanl Banks,
Interest Rates, Inflation, Exchange rates, Sector
taxes, Export Financing,
MAN POWER PLANNING Education, Training, Skills
development, Welfare, Labour code, Unions,
Language skills
INFRASTRUCTURE Dry/ Wet ports, Containers,
Airports, Road and Rail networks,
Telecommunications, Power/Gas/Water costs and
supplies, Effluent standards, Ecology
IMPORT / EXPORT REGIME Import/ Export regimes,
MFA/WTO, anti-dumping, reference prices,
bilateral agreements, export permits
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT Quality control,
Productivity, Standarization, ISO, Packaging,
23
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYSTRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
GOVERNMENT
  • BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS with MAJOR and LESSER
    MARKETS
  • HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT jointly with
    Industry for
  • MANAGEMENT (technical, commercial and
    general) and TRAINING of
  • TRAINERS workshops and courses
  • EXPORT TRADE PROMOTION Assistance for
    companies to become
  • MARKET ORIENTED workshops and short
    courses
  • BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES minimize
  • INTEREST RATES for BMRE and GREEN ISSUES
    Consider special rates
  • INFRA-STRUCTURE Improve

24
LAHORE, PAKISTAN SEMINAR 27 MAY 2003
EPB
EXPORT LED GROWTH
STRATEGYSTRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS TEXTILE and
GARMENT COMPANIES
  • CORPORATE BUSINESS STRATEGIES- formalize on
    basis of present
  • strengths and weaknesses, opportunities
    and threats
  • MARKET ORIENTATIONS Know Buyers personally
  • SELL PRO-ACTIVELY
  • HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT Attain correct
    commercial,
  • technical and general Management Skills
  • MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS- introduce
  • EFFICIENCIES /PRODUCTIVITY use Trained
    Trainers, reduce costs
  • PRICES- increase unit selling prices
  • LEAD TIMES- minimze
  • MARKETS- serve NEW PRODUCTS- develop
    (lifeline)
  • QUALITY CONSISTENCY- to specifications
  • SOCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY / LABOUR SAFEGUARDS-
    match
  • buyers needs
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