1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – 1 PowerPoint presentation | free to view - id: 9bea-YzEyY



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

1

Description:

Girl. Boy. P(B) Diff. Girl. Boy. P(B) Combo. China 2000. China 1990 ... Girl. Decision 1. Having a 2nd Child. GG. GG. GGB. Boy. GGG. Decision 3. Having a 3rd Child ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:59
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 53
Provided by: avrahame
Category:
Tags: girl

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: 1


1
Fertility and Sex Selection Analysis and Policy
in Asia
  • Avi Ebenstein
  • UC-Berkeley
  • Practice Job Talk
  • December 8th, 2006

2
Overview
  • Motivating Topic The Missing Girls of Asia
  • Preview of Results
  • Evidence of Sex Selection in Census Data
  • Background on Fertility Policy in China
  • Theoretical Model of Sex Selection Decision
  • Empirical Results from Estimation of Model
  • Policy Implications

3
Preview of Results
  • Sex ratios in Asia are historically high due to
    sex selection following daughters
  • Sex ratio in Asia is rising due to
  • Declining allowed/desired fertility
  • Persistent preference for at least 1 son
  • Using a matched sample of Chinese census data and
    fines in China for extra births, I present and
    estimate a simple model of the sex selection
    decision. I find that a son is worth roughly 2.9
    years of peasant income.
  • Proposed subsidy to mothers who fail to ever have
    a son can reduce sex selection and out of plan
    fertility in rural areas.

4
Literature Review
  • Sen (1990) - Missing Girls
  • Coale and Bannister (1994)
  • Zeng et al. (1993), Junhong (2001)
  • Jha (2006)
  • Oster (2006)

Identified Problem
Fertility surveys indicate some sex-selective
abortion
Biology?
5
Section 1Evidence of Sex Selection
6
Chinese Births following Girls
One Child Policy
7
Declining Fertility, Rising Sex Ratio
Key Fact in China Number of Sons falls by 6
million. Number of Daughters falls by 16
million!
US ? No Change
8
In Asia mothers without a son more likely to have
a son In US, mothers without a daughter more
likely to have a son
9
In Asia mothers without a son MUCH more likely to
have a child In US, mothers without 1 of each
slightly more likely to have a child
10
Boys arrive Late
Fewer Female Births ? More Abortions/Infanticide
? Later Arriving Boys
11
Section 2Background on Chinas Fertility Policy
12
Fertility Policy in China
  • Pronatalist Policy 1949-1969
  • Two is Enough 1970-1979
  • Strict One Child Policy 1979-1983
  • Opening Small Holes, Close Large Ones 1984
  • Today Federalism

13
Fertility Policy in China
  • One Child Policy (35)
  • Urban residents, population near cities
  • 1.5 Child Policy (54)
  • Rural areas in inner provinces
  • Two Child Policy (10)
  • Rural areas in outer provinces
  • Three Child Policy (1)
  • Residents in very remote areas

83 of Missing Girls
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
Fertility Policy in China
Source Fujian Province Regulations (1.5 Child
Policy Region)
17
Enforcement of Policy
First, we employ reasoning and education. Then,
we order a pregnancy fine and forced abortion.
For persons with above-quota births, we mete out
fines for those with many births, we confiscate
land and revoke household registration.
Chinese 1995 Survey on birth control practices
Scharping 2003, p. 147
18
(No Transcript)
19
Lower Fertility ? Higher Sex Ratios
20
Low Fertility, High Sex Ratios
High Fertility, Low Sex Ratios
21
More Education ? Lower Fertility ? Higher Sex
Ratios
First Births Similar, Undistorted
22
Section 3Motivation for Structural Model
23
Note province fixed effects and other
demographic controls included.
24
Section 4Sequential Modelof a Mothers Decision
25
Features of the Model
  • Mothers place a value of ? on a first-born son.
  • Mothers want a son but face a fertility limit
  • that is enforced by dollar fines F1 and F2
  • for 1st and 2nd extra children. (2nd and 3rd
    Births)
  • 3. Mothers have access to a sex selection
    technology that is 100 effective and costs A.
  • 4. Mothers with a son never have another child.

26
Decision 1 Having a 2nd Child
Stop
G
G
Boy
Girl
Decision 2 Sex Selection
GB
G(G)
Abort
Decision 3 Having a 3rd Child
Stop
GG
GG
Boy
Girl
GGB
GG(G)
Decision 4 Sex Selection
Abort
GGG
27
Decision 1 Having a 2nd Child
Stop
G
G
Boy
Girl
Decision 2 Sex Selection
GB
G(G)
Abort
Decision 3 Having a 3rd Child
Stop
GG
GG
Boy
Girl
GGB
GG(G)
Decision 4 Sex Selection
Abort
GGG
28
4th Decision Abort or Stop
  • Abortion Payoff
  • Dont Abort Payoff

29
Intuition of 4th Decision
  • Abortion when value of a son is large relative
    to cost of abortion

30
Decision 1 Having a 2nd Child
Stop
G
G
Boy
Girl
Decision 2 Sex Selection
GB
G(G)
Abort
Decision 3 Having a 3rd Child
Stop
GG
GG
Boy
Girl
GGB
GG(G)
Decision 4 Sex Selection
Abort
GGG
31
3rd Decision Kid or Stop
  • Have a kid
  • Dont

Payoff of Abortion
Payoff of Stoppingexp(0)
32
Intuition of 3rd Decision
  • Have a kid when son preference is large relative
    to fine.
  • Have a kid when payoff in round 4 is large, which
    happens when son preference exceeds abortion cost

33
Decision 1 Having a 2nd Child
Stop
G
G
Boy
Girl
Decision 2 Sex Selection
GB
G(G)
Abort
Decision 3 Having a 3rd Child
Stop
GG
GG
Boy
Girl
GGB
GG(G)
Decision 4 Sex Selection
Abort
GGG
34
2nd Decision Abort or Keep
  • Abort
  • Keep

Payoff of 3rd Kid
Payoff of Stoppingexp(0)
35
Intuition of 2nd Decision
  • Abort when ? A E(V3)
  • E(V3) .51? F2 .49 E(V4)
  • Abort if third fine is large!

Extreme case Mother will never die without son.
Now or Later scenario ? Abort when F2 .49A
36
Decision 1 Having a 2nd Child
Stop
G
G
Boy
Girl
Decision 2 Sex Selection
GB
G(G)
Abort
Decision 3 Having a 3rd Child
Stop
GG
GG
Boy
Girl
GGB
GG(G)
Decision 4 Sex Selection
Abort
GGG
37
1st Decision Kid or Quit
  • Abort
  • Keep

Payoff of 3rd Kid
Payoff of Stopping
38
Heterogeneity
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Choose optimal
ß1-ß7 given observed data
39
Basic Intuition of the Model
  • Abort 3rd Girl if Value of Son Exceeds Cost of
    Sex Selection (?A)
  • Have 3rd Child if Value of Natural or Augmented
    chance of having a son exceeds the fine.
  • Implication Those who wont abort more likely
    to stop.
  • Abort 2nd Girl to Avoid a 3rd Child! Fine is
    expensive.
  • Simple Case For mothers who know they will
    abort eventually, the decision is Now or
    Later.
  • When the (3rd Child Fine 49 of Abortion
    cost),
  • abort the second child.

40
Section 5Empirical Calibration of the Model
41
Sample Means for Calibration
42
Question Is the fit good? Yes, reasonably good
in-sample forecasting.
43
Question Who really wants a son in
China? Answer Less educated women, farmers.
44
Section 6Current Proposed Fertility Policy
45
Welfare Implications of Sex Selection
  • Marriage market
  • Among those who marry, women do relatively better
    and men do relatively worse. Men lose, women win.
  • Increase in unmatched men. Men lose.
  • 23 million boys will not find Chinese brides
  • The guang gun Bare Branches
  • It wont fix itself!
  • Parents prefer a potentially unmarried son to a
    married daughter.

Poston and Glover (2000)
46
Policy Current Proposed in China
  • Care for Girls campaign
  • Outlawing sex selection
  • Black Market for ultrasound
  • 3. Raise fertility limits???

At best, slow process
Price is 6-40 - Cheap
Original Problem!
4. Social Insurance for those fail to have a son
Thought experiment. If sons provide a dollar
value ?, one could tax those with a son ½ of ?
and reward those with daughters with ½ of ?
47
Policy Simulations
  • Q What if you could reduce ? by subsidizing
    those who fail to have a daughter? How much would
    that cost?
  • A A lot. But as I will show, it will accomplish
    the dual objective of lowering fertility and
    reducing the sex ratio.

48
Smaller Deficit
Indirect cost
Direct cost
Declining Efficiency
Falling Fertility
49
Summary of Findings
  • Sex selection responsible for rising SR
  • Declining fertility and son preference yield high
    Sex Ratio in Asia
  • Policy suggestion subsidize those who fail to
    have a son. Only way to address dual concern of
    fertility rates and sex ratio.
  • Chinas history, Indias future?

50
THE END
51
Acknowledgements
  • Ron Lee, David Card, Bill Lavely, Ken Chay, Raj
    Chetty, Susan Greenhalgh, Michael Greenstone,
    Jonathan Gruber, David Levine, David Romer, Ken
    Wachter, Feng Wang, Gretchen Donehower, Danzhen
    You, Kevin Stange, Kenneth Train, Jerome Adda,
    Damon Jones, Claudia Sitgraves

52
Hepatitis?
  • Claim Hepatitis B is a partial explanation for
    missing girls
  • (Oster, Journal of Political Economy 2006)
  • Facts
  • Male fraction of first births is about 51.
  • Sex ratio at birth rising throughout vaccination
    window.
  • Tibetans and other minorities have higher
    hepatitis rates, but lower sex ratios.
  • Possible Explanation for Osters findings
  • Result driven by correlation between hepatitis
    and son preference (e.g. Guangdong).
About PowerShow.com