Title: Comparing Methods to Inform Public Opinion: A MultiInstitution Study on Options to Meet Electricity
1Comparing Methods to Inform Public Opinion A
Multi-Institution Study on Options to Meet
Electricity Demand in Idaho Energy Policy
InstituteJune 12, 2009Presenter Mike Louis
2Purpose of Research
- Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
- Assist Policy Makers
- Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
Public - Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge
3Research Team
- University of Idaho
- Patrick Wilson, Associate Professor of Natural
Resource Policy, - Paulina Starkey, Graduate Assistant
- Idaho State University
- Ann Hunter, Professor of Sociology, Social Work,
and Criminal Justice - Steven Sorenson, Graduate Assistant
- Idaho National Laboratory
- Steven Piet, Nuclear Research Engineer
- Jeffrey Joe, Human Factors Research Scientist
- Boise State University
- John Freemuth, Professor of Public Policy
- Carole Nemnich, Project Manager, Social Science
Research Center - Michael Louis, Assistant Director, Energy Policy
Institute - Eileen DeShazo, Graduate Assistant, Energy Policy
Institute
4Purpose of Research
- Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
- Assist Policy Makers
- Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
Public - Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge
5Idahos Current Electricity Situation
- Idaho is one of the fastest growing states in
population. - 80 of in-state generation comes from
non-expandable Hydropower sources. - Idaho has little or no coal, oil, or natural gas.
- Idaho imports over 50 of its electricity.
- Most comes from coal generation, subject to
potentially future federal carbon legislation
higher prices. - Out-of-state contracts due to expire.
6Purpose of Research
- Demonstrate Collaboration for new Organization
- Assist Policy Makers
- Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
Public - Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge
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8Purpose of Research
- Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
- Assist Policy Makers
- Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
Public - Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge
9Typical Deliberative Poll Experimental Design
Given Oz Observation z 1 pre-survey
z 2 post-survey Xa Briefing Document
Treatment a 0 no briefing documents a
1 briefing documents. Yb Public Discourse
Treatment b 0 no discourse b 1
deliberation (presentation, group, panel)
Pre-test Treatments Post-test
O1 X0 Y0 O2
Randomized
O1 X1 Y1 O2
10Primary Research Question
- What effect do different types of public
discourse and information (treatments) have on
the publics preference and support for different
options to meet electricity demand?
11EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Pre-test Treatments Post-test
Given Oz Observation z 1 pre-survey
z 2 post-survey Xa Briefing Document
Treatment a 0 no briefing documents a
1 briefing documents. Yb Public Discourse
Treatment b 0 no discourse b 1
conference (presentation, panel) b 2
deliberation (presentation, group, panel)
O1 X0 Y0 O2
O1 X0 Y1 O2
O1 X0 Y2 O2
Randomized
O1 X1 Y0 O2
O1 X1 Y1 O2
O1 X1 Y2 O2
O1 X1 Y2 O2
12Theoretical Constructs
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj
- Options (j)
- Conservation and Efficiency
- Nuclear Generation
- Fossil Fuel Generation
- Renewable Generation
- Hydropower Generation
13Measurement
(Reflective Preference for electricity option j)
(Reflective Support for electricity option j)
Yj
Zj
bj
Ej
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj
- Options (j)
- Conservation and Efficiency
- Nuclear Generation
- Fossil Fuel Generation
- Renewable Generation
- Hydropower Generation
14Measurement Path Analysis
(Reflective Preference for electricity option j)
(Reflective Support for electricity option j)
Zj
Yj
bj
Ej
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj
- Factors (i)
- Safety
- Predictability
- Trust
- Environmental Impact
- Cost
- Adaptability
- Aesthetics
- Extra Benefits
W4
W5
W3
W2
W1
W7
W6
W8
X7j
X8j
X1j
X2j
X6j
X3j
X4j
X5j
(Formative Preference for electricity option j
given factor i)
15Preliminary Results Level of Support
16Participants Experience
17Demonstrated Learning
18Participant Experience
19Participant Experience
20Participant Experience
21Preliminary Results Citizen Involvement in
Policy Process
22Lessons Learned - Collaboration
- End product is more comprehensive and thorough.
- Time consuming and resource intensive.
- Be willing to accommodate individual values,
standards, and differences - Use formal methods to make BIG decisions
- Research objectives, design, and questions.
- decision matrices, multi-voting, weighted
criteria, affinity, etc. - Pay attention to differences in institutional
culture and politics. - Collaboration technology is big enabler.
- Soft skills and team dynamics are important.
23Lessons Learned Research Plan
- Develop over-arching research objectives first.
- Know what you are measuring
- Identify research questions and theoretical
constructs. - Provides a basis for everything (briefing doc,
survey questions, population, sampling plan, etc.
) - Develop a working research plan to document
different levels of detail. - Dont get too ambitious. Balance with money,
time, and practicality constraints.
24Lessons Learned Project Management
- Embrace project management tools and processes
- Co-develop a scoping document to focus project.
- Co-develop a detailed project plan to coordinate
activities. - Hold weekly status update meetings with agenda
and minutes. - Perfection not a good goal - be willing to put
stakes in ground. - Have a project manager/leader.
25Lessons Learned Implementation
- Expert Panel selection is non-trivial Balanced
or Neutral? - Briefing Document development is non-trivial -
Balanced or Neutral? - Panel certification of neutral briefing document
is near impossible be willing to own document
with expert input - Dont underestimate recruiting effort needed
- Amount of stipend generally unimportant
- Schedule event during poor weather
26Student Takeaways
- Learned the value of coordinating a project using
Project Management methods and tools - Learned research methods
- Learned the value of collaboration and team work
- Learned value of engaging the public
- Learned how personal involvement can make a
difference in societys problems.