Comparing Methods to Inform Public Opinion: A MultiInstitution Study on Options to Meet Electricity

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Comparing Methods to Inform Public Opinion A
Multi-Institution Study on Options to Meet
Electricity Demand in Idaho Energy Policy
InstituteJune 12, 2009Presenter Mike Louis
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Purpose of Research

• Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
• Assist Policy Makers
• Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
  Public
• Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge

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Research Team

• University of Idaho
• Patrick Wilson, Associate Professor of Natural
  Resource Policy,
• Paulina Starkey, Graduate Assistant
• Idaho State University
• Ann Hunter, Professor of Sociology, Social Work,
  and Criminal Justice
• Steven Sorenson, Graduate Assistant
• Idaho National Laboratory
• Steven Piet, Nuclear Research Engineer
• Jeffrey Joe, Human Factors Research Scientist
• Boise State University
• John Freemuth, Professor of Public Policy
• Carole Nemnich, Project Manager, Social Science
  Research Center
• Michael Louis, Assistant Director, Energy Policy
  Institute
• Eileen DeShazo, Graduate Assistant, Energy Policy
  Institute

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Purpose of Research

• Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
• Assist Policy Makers
• Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
  Public
• Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge

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Idahos Current Electricity Situation

• Idaho is one of the fastest growing states in
  population.
• 80 of in-state generation comes from
  non-expandable Hydropower sources.
• Idaho has little or no coal, oil, or natural gas.
• Idaho imports over 50 of its electricity.
• Most comes from coal generation, subject to
  potentially future federal carbon legislation
  higher prices.
• Out-of-state contracts due to expire.

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Purpose of Research

• Demonstrate Collaboration for new Organization
• Assist Policy Makers
• Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
  Public
• Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge

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Purpose of Research

• Demonstrate Collaboration for New Organization
• Assist Policy Makers
• Help Experts Understand Better Ways to Engage
  Public
• Contribute to Public Engagement Body of Knowledge

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Typical Deliberative Poll Experimental Design
Given Oz Observation z 1 pre-survey
z 2 post-survey Xa Briefing Document
Treatment a 0 no briefing documents a
1 briefing documents. Yb Public Discourse
Treatment b 0 no discourse b 1
deliberation (presentation, group, panel)
Pre-test Treatments Post-test
O1 X0 Y0 O2
Randomized
O1 X1 Y1 O2
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Primary Research Question

• What effect do different types of public
  discourse and information (treatments) have on
  the publics preference and support for different
  options to meet electricity demand?

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EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Pre-test Treatments Post-test
Given Oz Observation z 1 pre-survey
z 2 post-survey Xa Briefing Document
Treatment a 0 no briefing documents a
1 briefing documents. Yb Public Discourse
Treatment b 0 no discourse b 1
conference (presentation, panel) b 2
deliberation (presentation, group, panel)
O1 X0 Y0 O2
O1 X0 Y1 O2
O1 X0 Y2 O2
Randomized
O1 X1 Y0 O2
O1 X1 Y1 O2
O1 X1 Y2 O2
O1 X1 Y2 O2
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Theoretical Constructs
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj

• Options (j)
• Conservation and Efficiency
• Nuclear Generation
• Fossil Fuel Generation
• Renewable Generation
• Hydropower Generation

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Measurement
(Reflective Preference for electricity option j)
(Reflective Support for electricity option j)
Yj
Zj
bj
Ej
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj

• Options (j)
• Conservation and Efficiency
• Nuclear Generation
• Fossil Fuel Generation
• Renewable Generation
• Hydropower Generation

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Measurement Path Analysis
(Reflective Preference for electricity option j)
(Reflective Support for electricity option j)
Zj
Yj
bj
Ej
WjPreference for electricity option j
TjSupport for electricity option j
Dj

• Factors (i)
• Safety
• Predictability
• Trust
• Environmental Impact
• Cost
• Adaptability
• Aesthetics
• Extra Benefits

W4
W5
W3
W2
W1
W7
W6
W8
X7j
X8j
X1j
X2j
X6j
X3j
X4j
X5j
(Formative Preference for electricity option j
given factor i)
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Preliminary Results Level of Support
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Participants Experience
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Demonstrated Learning
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Participant Experience
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Participant Experience
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Participant Experience
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Preliminary Results Citizen Involvement in
Policy Process
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Lessons Learned - Collaboration

• End product is more comprehensive and thorough.
• Time consuming and resource intensive.
• Be willing to accommodate individual values,
  standards, and differences
• Use formal methods to make BIG decisions
• Research objectives, design, and questions.
• decision matrices, multi-voting, weighted
  criteria, affinity, etc.
• Pay attention to differences in institutional
  culture and politics.
• Collaboration technology is big enabler.
• Soft skills and team dynamics are important.

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Lessons Learned Research Plan

• Develop over-arching research objectives first.
  
• Know what you are measuring
• Identify research questions and theoretical
  constructs.
• Provides a basis for everything (briefing doc,
  survey questions, population, sampling plan, etc.
  )
• Develop a working research plan to document
  different levels of detail.
• Dont get too ambitious. Balance with money,
  time, and practicality constraints.

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Lessons Learned Project Management

• Embrace project management tools and processes
• Co-develop a scoping document to focus project.
• Co-develop a detailed project plan to coordinate
  activities.
• Hold weekly status update meetings with agenda
  and minutes.
• Perfection not a good goal - be willing to put
  stakes in ground.
• Have a project manager/leader.

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Lessons Learned Implementation

• Expert Panel selection is non-trivial Balanced
  or Neutral?
• Briefing Document development is non-trivial -
  Balanced or Neutral?
• Panel certification of neutral briefing document
  is near impossible be willing to own document
  with expert input
• Dont underestimate recruiting effort needed
• Amount of stipend generally unimportant
• Schedule event during poor weather

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Student Takeaways

• Learned the value of coordinating a project using
  Project Management methods and tools
• Learned research methods
• Learned the value of collaboration and team work
• Learned value of engaging the public
• Learned how personal involvement can make a
  difference in societys problems.