Title: Climate Change Mitigation: The need to include Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
1 Climate Change Mitigation The need to include
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
2Scope
- Introduction
- What science says about AFOLU
- CDM a missed opportunity
- The inequity under CDM
- The economics of AFOLU
- Barriers
- Opportunities to overcome the barriers
- Framework for African Biocarbon Facility
- Conclusion and Key Messages
3Introduction
- Africa will be hardest hit by climate with large
effects on agriculture. - Poor farmers and other vulnerable groups will
need help adapting to climate change. - Today agriculture contributes 14 percent of
annual GHG emissions and land use change,
including forest loss contributes another 19
percent. - Agriculture, forestry and other land use have a
huge potential to cost effectively mitigate GHGs
through changes in agricultural technologies,
avoided deforestation and management practices. - Need to tackle the drivers of deforestation that
lie outside the forestry sector.
4What science says about AFOLU
- GHG emissions from agriculture and other land use
changes are expected to increase in the future
given increasing demand for agricultural products
and changing food preferences. - The potential for mitigation thro agriculture in
Africa has been estimated at 970mtCO2e per year
by 2030 accounting for 17 of the global total
with additional 14 from forestry. - Africa has significant potential in AFOLU to
deliver on carbon sequestration and co-benefits
such as food security, biodiversity conservation
and poverty reduction.
5CDM A Missed Opportunity for Africa
3
Registered CDM projects by Region
Africa accounts for less than 3 of total CDM
projects 90 of those projects are in South
Africa
2.6
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
33.00
63.90
Asia and the Pacific
5
Source http//cdm.unfccc.int
6The inequity under CDM
- CDM excludes in non-annex 1 countries the
following - Forest conservation
- Avoided deforestation
- Sustainable forest management
- Renewable biomass
- Agriculture and soil carbon
- Yet, all the above and A/R are credited in annex
1 countries!
7The Economics of AFOLU
- More than any other region Africa depends on
agriculture and other land uses for food and
economic security. - African terrestrial mitigation can be evenly
split between agriculture, avoided deforestation
and reforestation - Potential annual payments to Africa from
terrestrial carbon - From REDD 500,000,000 mt _at_ X/mt X billion
- From A/R 500,000,000 mt _at_ X/mt X billion
- From agriculture 500,000,000 _at_ X/mt X
billion - Total 3X billion
- This is about 2.5 times average annual aid to
Africa. - Source McKinsey Analysis
8Barriers
- Exclusion of soil carbon sequestration and
avoided deforestation. - Methodological issues Monitoring, Reportable
and Verifiable (MRVs) - Defining the baseline
- Additionality
- Leakages
- Permanence
- Cost effectiveness
- High transaction costs
9Opportunities to overcome the barriers
- Simplify the rules of CDM.
- Broaden the CDM definition of afforestation and
reforestation to include agroforestry and forest
rehabilitation. - Allow soil carbon sequestration and REDD plus
under CDM. - Increase participation in voluntary markets.
- Establish an African Biocarbon Facility to
harness both public and private funds for AFOLU.
10African BioCarbon Facility
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
of credits sold after generated
Buyer
of credits sold under long term forward
contracts
Buyer
Credits
Buyer
BioCarbon Fund
ODA, Countries, other Investors
Carbon credits
, tech assistance
Feb, 2009
Climate Change Workshop Nairobi, Kenya
10
11Conclusion and Key Messages
- Across Africa, the fate of the poor and
vulnerable groups are closely tied to agriculture
as sources of food and economic security. - Africa must optimize the full climate change
mitigation and adaptation potential by ensuring
that AFOLU and REDD are included in the Post 2012
climate change regime. - A programme of work for REDD/AFOLU readiness.
- Broaden and simply CDM to include REDD, A/R and
agriculture and other land uses. - Pursue the establishment of an African BioCarbon
Facility to support climate change mitigation and
adaptation in Africa.
12Thank youMerci