Climate Change Mitigation: The need to include Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)

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Climate Change Mitigation The need to include
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
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Scope

• Introduction
• What science says about AFOLU
• CDM a missed opportunity
• The inequity under CDM
• The economics of AFOLU
• Barriers
• Opportunities to overcome the barriers
• Framework for African Biocarbon Facility
• Conclusion and Key Messages

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Introduction

• Africa will be hardest hit by climate with large
  effects on agriculture.
• Poor farmers and other vulnerable groups will
  need help adapting to climate change.
• Today agriculture contributes 14 percent of
  annual GHG emissions and land use change,
  including forest loss contributes another 19
  percent.
• Agriculture, forestry and other land use have a
  huge potential to cost effectively mitigate GHGs
  through changes in agricultural technologies,
  avoided deforestation and management practices.
• Need to tackle the drivers of deforestation that
  lie outside the forestry sector.

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What science says about AFOLU

• GHG emissions from agriculture and other land use
  changes are expected to increase in the future
  given increasing demand for agricultural products
  and changing food preferences.
• The potential for mitigation thro agriculture in
  Africa has been estimated at 970mtCO2e per year
  by 2030 accounting for 17 of the global total
  with additional 14 from forestry.
• Africa has significant potential in AFOLU to
  deliver on carbon sequestration and co-benefits
  such as food security, biodiversity conservation
  and poverty reduction.

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CDM A Missed Opportunity for Africa
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Registered CDM projects by Region
Africa accounts for less than 3 of total CDM
projects 90 of those projects are in South
Africa
2.6
Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
33.00
63.90
Asia and the Pacific
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Source http//cdm.unfccc.int
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The inequity under CDM

• CDM excludes in non-annex 1 countries the
  following
• Forest conservation
• Avoided deforestation
• Sustainable forest management
• Renewable biomass
• Agriculture and soil carbon
• Yet, all the above and A/R are credited in annex
  1 countries!

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The Economics of AFOLU

• More than any other region Africa depends on
  agriculture and other land uses for food and
  economic security.
• African terrestrial mitigation can be evenly
  split between agriculture, avoided deforestation
  and reforestation
• Potential annual payments to Africa from
  terrestrial carbon
• From REDD 500,000,000 mt _at_ X/mt X billion
• From A/R 500,000,000 mt _at_ X/mt X billion
• From agriculture 500,000,000 _at_ X/mt X
  billion
• Total 3X billion
• This is about 2.5 times average annual aid to
  Africa.
• Source McKinsey Analysis

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Barriers

• Exclusion of soil carbon sequestration and
  avoided deforestation.
• Methodological issues Monitoring, Reportable
  and Verifiable (MRVs)
• Defining the baseline
• Additionality
• Leakages
• Permanence
• Cost effectiveness
• High transaction costs

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Opportunities to overcome the barriers

• Simplify the rules of CDM.
• Broaden the CDM definition of afforestation and
  reforestation to include agroforestry and forest
  rehabilitation.
• Allow soil carbon sequestration and REDD plus
  under CDM.
• Increase participation in voluntary markets.
• Establish an African Biocarbon Facility to
  harness both public and private funds for AFOLU.

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African BioCarbon Facility
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
of credits sold after generated
Buyer
of credits sold under long term forward
contracts
Buyer
Credits
Buyer
BioCarbon Fund

ODA, Countries, other Investors

Carbon credits
, tech assistance
Feb, 2009
Climate Change Workshop Nairobi, Kenya
10
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Conclusion and Key Messages

• Across Africa, the fate of the poor and
  vulnerable groups are closely tied to agriculture
  as sources of food and economic security.
• Africa must optimize the full climate change
  mitigation and adaptation potential by ensuring
  that AFOLU and REDD are included in the Post 2012
  climate change regime.
• A programme of work for REDD/AFOLU readiness.
• Broaden and simply CDM to include REDD, A/R and
  agriculture and other land uses.
• Pursue the establishment of an African BioCarbon
  Facility to support climate change mitigation and
  adaptation in Africa.

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Thank youMerci