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Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change MACC Issue Paper DRAFT Climate Change in the Caribbean: W

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Title: Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change MACC Issue Paper DRAFT Climate Change in the Caribbean: W


1
Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change
(MACC)Issue Paper (DRAFT)Climate Change in
the CaribbeanWater, Agriculture, Forestry
  • Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty
  • University of Colorado and
  • NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
  • Boulder CO 80305

2
  • Background
  • Water Resources in the Caribbean an overview
  • Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the
    Caribbean
  • Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate
    Change in the Caribbean
  • Impacts on Water Resources
  • Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security
  • Approaches to Adaptation Integrating climate and
  • natural resources assessments under a
    decision-oriented framework

3
Appendices
  • APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A Water and
    Climate Dialogue Summary Statements
  • Food Security Implications for Research and
    Policy
  • APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements
  • APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications
    in the Caribbean A case study of climate
    information use in sugar production in Trinidad
    (summary)

4
Three questions under the MACC framework
  • Are planning strategies for water, agricultural
    and forest resources in the Caribbean
    supported by the climate record?
  • What additional pressures will be placed on
    these resources as a result of projected
    climatic variability and change?
  • (3) What practical strategies may be engaged to
    reduce vulnerability and enhance social,
    economic and ecological resilience?

5
Characteristics of small island environments
  • Ecological/environmental
  • Geographical
  • Socio-economic
  • Historical and political

6
Climate change projections for the Caribbean
region
  • Trends
  • Avg. annual air temp 1 F
  • Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs
  • Generally drier conditions
  • Scenarios for Future Climate
  • 2-3 C
  • Drier mid-year, wetter end of year
  • Ocean surface warming
  • Salt water intrusion into freshwater
  • Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like
    conditions and less but more intense more
    intense tropical storms (5-10 windspeed)

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  • Changes in the total amount of precipitation and
    in its frequency and
  • intensity directly affect the magnitude and
    timing of runoff and the
  • intensity of floods and droughts however, at
    present, specific
  • regional effects are uncertain
  • The impacts of climate change will depend on the
    baseline conditions
  • of the water supply system and the ability of
    water resource
  • managers to respond not only to climate change
    but also to
  • population growth and changes in demands,
    technology, and
  • economic, social and legislative conditions
  • Note the latter are also baseline conditions

9
Where does climate variability come from?
  • NAO
  • TA
  • ENSO

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13
Sugar-industry operations chain
Cane cultivation
  • Planting schedule
  • Pesticide and
  • herbicide applications
  • IPM application
  • Irrigation timing
  • Runoff/erosion control
  • Fire management

Harvest operations and transport
Milling and Sugar production
  • Initiation of harvest
  • Completion of harvest
  • Selective harvesting
  • Road repair
  • Soil compaction and
  • field conditions
  • Fire management

Marketing and Shipping
  • Milling initiation
  • Cane and
  • sugar storage
  • Likelihood of
  • meeting quota
  • Shipping timing
  • (delays etc)
  • storage
  • requirement
  • Secondary economies impact, minimizing
    environmental impacts,
    land-use/settlements

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19
Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of
global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000.
(A) spatial correlations between first EOF and
Atlantic SSTs (B) temporal reconstruction of
variability averaged over the rectangle in A
(Goldenberg et all 2001)
20
Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during
(A) warm and (B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes
21
  • The question remains Can we produce reliable
    baselines for planning give the large amount of
    year to year and decade to decade variations in
    the Caribbean?
  • Need for careful monitoring and inventory of
    critical variables and indicators (available and
    gaps)
  • Need for upscaling local climate/met./hydro
    data and experience as well as downscaling
    models (precision vs. accuracy)

22
viewed from Sectors
Mineral Fossil Fuel Extraction
Agriculture silviculture
Urban Development
Water Sustainability
Ecosystem Land Use Management
Conservation Biodiversity
Health Disease
and more
Recreation
23
  • Integrated Water Resource Assessments
  • Assessment of biophysical impacts on
  • hydrologic resources,
  • water quality, and
  • aquatic ecosystem integrity.
  • Assessment of socio-economic impacts on
  • demand from market water use sectors, and
  • water resources management systems

24
  • Water resources adaptations
  • Supply adaptation
  • modification of existing physical infrastructure
  • construction of new infrastructure and
  • alternative management of the existing water
    supply systems
  • Demand adaptation
  • conservation and improved efficiency
  • technological change and
  • market/price-driven transfers to other
    activities.

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27
Trends and conditioning factors
  • Unit(s) of analysis Upstream-downstream,
  • watershed, urban
  • Relevant hydro-climatic variables data,qc,
    uncertainties
  • Demands Scale, trends and criticality
  • Reliability of supply and distribution
  • Separation of regulatory and operational
    responsibilities
  • Integration of water quantity and quality
  • Security of rights
  • Incorporation of climate issues in existing
    networks priorities and policies
  • Post-audits of past events and technical
    interventions
  • - if we did or are doing everything possible
    why did it work or not work?

28
Established frameworks for water
allocationnational level
  • Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory
    framework
  • Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt.
    Mandates,responsibilities and practices
  • Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision
    support modeling
  • Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pric
    ing trading
  • Participation
  • Structural and development base-water supply and
    operations, users

29
If so
So what
30
  • Optimizing the net social benefit
  • Difficulty in dealing with all related social
    aims of water/natural resource uses
  • Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for
    program evaluation
  • Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated
    management and in coordinating watersheds plans
  • Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and
    initiatives

31
  • Sufficient, reliable data are not available or
    shared at present to undertake a thorough
    analysis of the multiple threats to water
    resources, forestry, or food security

e.g. water consumption rates (availability per
capita) and access to network water and
sanitation facilities changing levels of
domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped
water, tourism, costs of obtaining water
32
IWCAM
  • Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at
    the national and regional level, to undertake the
    regular dissemination of user-friendly
    information on such technologies as well as to
    assist with the training of nationals in the use
    of such technology
  • Introduction of incentives to encourage the use
    of appropriate
  • What does capacity building mean in this
    context?

33
.viewed from Information chain
34
Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of
water-related Ministries and organizations to
identify pathwaysfor decision-making
  • 1. Establishing and consolidate a viable
    scientific basis for water resources management
    sector and for (inter)national (water) policies
  • Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that
    builds the knowledge to cope with climate
    variability and change.
  • Building and share knowledge and information by
    bridging climate variability/change and water
    communities
  • 4. Raising awareness of the issues relating
    climate and water, and broaden scientific,
    political and water managers participation in the
    discussion

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36
Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends
  • Effects Related to Altered Resources
  • Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and
    Review Past and Potential Responses
  • National Food Balance
  • Institutional Development
  • Household Food Poverty
  • Income Components
  • Cultural Preferences
  • Demography
  • Individual Food Deprivation
  • Nutritional Status
  • Health Status
  • Social Status Three pillars of food security
    food production, economic access to available
    food, and nutritional security
  • Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?

37
Developing effective decision environments (a
role for C5)
  • Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources
    Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing)
  • Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting,
    initiating and facilitating climate change
    programs and policies
  • Review national strategies for enhancing the
    objectives of the UN Framework Convention on
    Climate Change and advising government on the way
    forward
  • Such Roundtables should
  • Evaluate options, information, and technology and
    to examine the sectors that will most benefit
    from these inputs among existing institutions
  • Explore the feasibility of establishing a
    regional plan of action to identify and adapt,
    where appropriate, successful examples of water
    conservation and watershed programs
  • Identify entry points for information at
    different levels of governance
  • (not just information provision)

38
Indeterminate
Climate and cross-scale watershed issues
Linear vs. Adaptive management
Long-term
Decade
Year
Seasonal
Monthly Daily
Hourly
Household-municipal-
National
Global
Parish/County
Regional
39
Developing prototypes or pilot studies for
climate impacts assessments
  • Select the exposure unit (usually at the
    watershed)
  • Define the study area and critical issue
  • Determine general data availability and adequacy
  • Select a time horizon
  • Identify trends and influences on trend for
    critical issues
  • Identify a preliminary range of adaptations
  • Determine the need for integration across sectors
  • Problem-orientation
  • Do we really know how we adjust to drought
    condtions?

40
How do we effectively integrate these two?
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42
Approaches to risk communication and associated
assumptions
  • __________________________________________________
    _________________________
  • Approach Assumptions and actions
  • Development and From the risk expert to the
    public--finite and
  • delivery of a risk message uni-directional
  • Aimed at bringing public views into line with
    expert views
  • Assumes expert view has more validity for
    decision- making
  • Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk
    information--continuous
  • Aimed at balancing the content of risk
    message
  • Assumes both views contribute to
    decision-making
  • Social processes Engage in a process that
    addresses concerns about risk
  • of risk communication Aimed at enhancing
    understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE
    AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as
    important as the product
  • __________________________________________________
    ___________________________
  • i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street

43
Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms
Realizing implementation
  • Past recommendations and interventions How
    effective were they? What criteria are used for
    evaluation?
  • Not simply communicating after project is over
  • Involving local organizations in planning and
  • implementation
  • Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)
  • How is the common interest pursued and secured?
    Where and why have particular local organizations
    been successful and sustained?

44
Mainstreaming..
  • What partnerships need to be engaged? What
    activities already exist?
  • Goals of participants What is being valued?
  • (by experts and role of experts, state
    agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda
    are we agreeing on?
  • Trends Robustness choice, inventory and
    baselines
  • Conditioning factors reconstructing influences
    on events, past interventions
  • Projections (scenarios and uncertainties)
  • Alternatives acting under uncertain information
  • Pathways to decision-making ,data, methods,Entry
    points salience, legitimacy, acceptability,
    context

45
How does innovation occur?Rate of adoption of
knowledge-based innovation in water resources
agenciesY f(Xi)
  • Xi (compatibility of innovation with needs
    and values
  • .capacity and characteristics
  • .1/complexity of innovation
  • .communicability within agency
  • .communication networks outside
  • (incl. other resources and other
  • national water agencies)
  • . of initial innovators
  • .investment in innovation

46
Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y
f(Xi)
  • Xi
  • .observability in practicewho is else is
    involved?
  • .evaluation of support toolsDSS,pricing
    (transfer of tested and untested approaches)
  • .respect conferred)
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