Comprehensive Particulate Matter Modeling: A One Atmosphere Approach

1
Emission Sensitivities for VISTAS
Jim Boylan Georgia Department of Natural
Resources VISTAS Technical Lead for Air Quality
Modeling VISTAS STAD Meeting Charleston,
SC December 15, 2004
2
Outline

• Background
• Status of Sensitivity Runs
• Sensitivity Results for Class I Areas
• Mountain Sites
• Southern and Coastal Sites
• Non-VISTAS Sites
• Summary of Results

3
Background
4
Introduction

• Georgia Tech has been performing emission
  sensitivities using CMAQ on the VISTAS 12 km
  modeling domain
• Model simulations for two episodes
• July 13-27, 2001 and January 1-20, 2002
• 2018 OTB and 2018 OTW
• Episode days are weighted using CART to best
  represent 20 best and worst days
• Can only use days with measurements (1 of 3)
• Each site will use 1 5 days to represent each
  metric

5
CART Weights (20 Best)
6
CART Weights (20 Worst)
7
CART Weights (20 Worst) - July
8
Approach

• Brute-force sensitivities performed by reducing
  specific emissions by 30
• Modeling results used in a relative fashion
  rather than absolute fashion
• Goal is to perform a PRELIMINARY evaluation of
  the reasonable progress goals at each Class I
  area and evaluate the relative importance of
  various emission reductions

9
Evaluation of Reasonable Progress
20 Haziest Days


RRF1
dV
20 Cleanest Days


RRF2
Natural Background
2000 2018 Year
2064

• RRF calculations are based on 2002 typical
  emissions
• Must convert from dV to light extinction (bext)

10
Status of Sensitivity Runs
11
Emission Sensitivities

• Actual Typical Baseyear (36 km and 12 km)
• 2018 OTB OTW (36 km and 12 km)
• All SO2 (OTB OTW)
• All Point SO2 (OTB OTW)
• VISTAS Coal Power Plants (OTB OTW)
• VISTAS Other Power Plants (OTB OTW)
• VISTAS Non Power Plants (OTB OTW)
• Non-VISTAS Point (OTB OTW)
• All Ground SO2 (OTB OTW)
• All Boundary SO2 (OTB OTW)
• All Boundary SO4 (OTB OTW)

12
Other Emission Sensitivities

• All NH3 (OTB OTW)
• All NOx (OTB OTW)
• All Primary Carbon (OTB)
• All Man-Made VOCs (OTB)
• All Biogenic VOCs (OTB)
• All SO2/NOx (OTB)
• All SO2/NH3 (OTB)
• All NOx/NH3 (OTB OTW)
• All SO2/NOx/NH3 (OTB)

13
Geographic Sensitivities

• Emission reductions on a state-by-state basis for
  each of the 10 VISTAS states
• Coal Fired Power Plant SO2 Emissions
• Largest source category contributing to regional
  haze
• Non-Power Plant SO2 Emissions
• Second largest source category and can be used to
  determine maximum benefit from non-EGU BART
  sources
• Will not be presented today

14
Level 1 Sensitivity Acronyms

• OTB-TYP ? 2018 OTB 2002 Typical
• OTW-OTB ? 2018 OTW 2018 OTB
• ASO2 ? 30 reduction in all SO2 domain-wide
• ANOX ? 30 reduction in all NOX domain-wide
• ANH3 ? 30 reduction in all NH3 domain-wide
• ASO2NOXNH3 ? 30 reduction in all SO2/NOX/NH3
  domain-wide
• AMVOC ? 30 reduction in all Anthropogenic VOCs
  domain-wide
• ABVOC ? 30 reduction in all Biogenic VOCs
  domain-wide
• APRIC ? 30 reduction in all Primary Carbon
  domain-wide

15
Level 23 Sensitivity Acronyms

• GSO2ALL? 30 reduction in all ground SO2
  domain-wide
• ESO2ALL? 30 reduction in all point SO2
  domain-wide
• ESO2VCPP (CPP) ? 30 reduction in all VISTAS
  point coal-fired power plant SO2
• ESO2VNPP (NPP) ? 30 reduction in all VISTAS
  point non power plant SO2
• ESO2VOPP (OPP) ? 30 reduction in all VISTAS
  point non coal-fired power plant SO2
• ESO2nonV ? 30 reduction in all non VISTAS point
  SO2
• BCSO2 ? 30 reduction in all SO2 boundary
  conditions
• BCSO4 ? 30 reduction in all SO4 boundary
  conditions

16
(No Transcript)
17
Mountain Sites
18
Mammoth Cave (KY) 4 days
Red line indicates the additional reductions in
light extinction beyond 2018 OTB required to
reach the Reasonable Progress Goals (Goal OTB)
19
Mammoth Cave (KY) - 4 days
20
Great Smoky Mtns (TN) 2 days
21
Great Smoky Mtns (TN) 2 days
22
Linville Gorge (NC) 2 days
23
Linville Gorge (NC) 2 days
24
Shining Rock (NC) 2 days
25
Shining Rock (NC) 2 days
26
Cohutta (GA) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
27
Cohutta (GA) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
28
Sipsey (AL) 3 days
29
Sipsey (AL) 3 days
30
James River Face (VA) 1 day
31
James River Face (VA) 1 day
32
Shenandoah (VA) 3 days
33
Shenandoah (VA) 3 days
34
Dolly Sods (WV) 3 days
35
Dolly Sods (WV) 3 days
36
Dolly Sods (WV) 3 days
37
Southern and Coastal Sites
38
Okefenokee (GA) 4 days
39
Okefenokee (GA) 3 days
40
Wolf Island 4 days
41
Wolf Island 4 days
42
Cape Romain (SC) 2 days
43
Cape Romain (SC) 1 day
44
Chassahowitzka (FL) 2 days
45
Chassahowitzka (FL) 1 day
46
Swanquarter (NC) 3 days
47
Swanquarter (NC) 2 days
48
St. Marks (FL) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
49
St. Marks (FL) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
50
Everglades (FL) 1 day
51
Everglades (FL) 1 day
52
Non-VISTAS Sites
53
Upper Buffalo (AR) 5 days
54
Upper Buffalo (AR) 5 days
55
Breton (LA) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
56
Breton (LA) 2 days
No data available to calculate glide slope.
57
Hercules Glades (MO) 5 days
58
Hercules Glades (MO) 4 days
59
Mingo (MO) 2 days
60
Mingo (MO) 1 day
61
Caney Creek (AR) 5 days
62
Caney Creek (AR) 5 days
63
Caney Creek (AR) 5 days
64
Brigantine (NJ) 2 days
65
Brigantine (NJ) 1 day
66
20 Best Days
67
20 Best Days (OTB)
Mountain Coastal
Non-VISTAS
68
20 Best Days (OTW)
Mountain Coastal
Non-VISTAS
69
Coal-Fired Power Plant SO2 Geographic
Sensitivities
70
Geographic CPP SO2 Emissions
Mountain Coastal
Non-VISTAS
4
( of days in red)
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
5
1
5
4
4
4
3
3
1
2
0
71
Preliminary Observations and Conclusions
72
20 Best Days

• There is an overall improvement in visibility at
  most sites when the 2018 OTB is compared to the
  2002 Typical
• GSM, Linville, Breton, Dolly Sods, Mingo,
  Okefenokee, and Wolf Island have slight
  degradation
• 2018 OTW does not show degradation in visibility
  at any sites

73
20 Worst Days

• SO2 reductions showed the largest benefits at all
  sites
• NOx and Primary Carbon sensitivities show the
  second largest benefits at most sites
• NH3 sensitivities had significantly smaller
  impacts on visibility
• Manmade and biogenic VOC sensitivities showed
  negligible changes in visibility

74
20 Worst Days

• Reductions in elevated SO2 point sources were
  significantly more effective than ground level
  SO2 sources
• Of these elevated SO2 sources, VISTAS coal fired
  power plants (CPP) showed the most benefit
• VISTAS non-power plant (NPP) SO2 and non-VISTAS
  Elevated Point SO2 each showed about 25 of the
  VISTAS CPP response
• Can only draw preliminary conclusions for CPP and
  NPP geographic influences since not all key
  meteorological conditions were represented

75
2018 OTW Summary

• Will VISTAS Class I areas meet the reasonable
  progress goals in 2018 with CAIR?
• YES (gt5 Mm-1 above goal)
• MACA, GRSM, LIGO, SHRO, JARI, SIPS, COHU, OKEF,
  WOLF, SAMA, UPBU, BRET
• NO (gt5 Mm-1 below goal)
• DOSO (?), EVER (?)
• MAYBE (within 5 Mm-1 of the goal)
• SHEN, CHAS, HEGL, CACR
• UNDETERMINED (due to conflicting information)
• ROMA, SWAN, MING, BRIG (?)
• These conclusions are based on a limited data set
  (sometimes as few as 1 day) and should be viewed
  as very PRELIMINARY and subject to change once
  the annual 2018 simulation is completed.