Verification of 2005 Hurricane Forecasts and 2006 Hurricane Forecast

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Verification of 2005 Hurricane Forecasts and 2006
Hurricane Forecast
Phil Klotzbach Bahamas Weather
Conference 3/10/2006
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2005 Atlantic Basin Activity Summary
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2005 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
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Source http//weather.unisys.com
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2005 United States Landfalls
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2005 United States Major Hurricane Landfalls
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2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast
Verification
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2005 ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS
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AUGUST 2005 FORECAST VERIFICATION
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SEPTEMBER 2005 FORECAST VERIFICATION
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OCTOBER 2005 FORECAST VERIFICATION
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2006 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast
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December Forecast Predictors
November 500 mb Geopotential Height
October-November SLP
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September 500 mb Geopotential Height
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September-November SLP
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QBO
6
4
EQ.
November SLP
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2006 FORECAST AS OF 6 DECEMBER 2005
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The number of years that our tropical cyclone
forecasts issued at various lead times have
correctly predicted above- or below-average
activity for each predictand over the past seven
years (1999-2005)
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2006 Updates Forecasts
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Current Tools Used to Issue U.S. Landfall
Probability Forecasts

• Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Activity Forecast
• Measure of North Atlantic Sea Surface
  Temperatures (SSTA)

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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY
3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2006

• Entire U.S. coastline 81 (average for last
  century is 52)
• 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida -
  64 (average for last century is 31)
• 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle
  westward to Brownsville - 47 (average for last
  century is 30)
• 4) Expected above-average major hurricane
  landfall risk in the Caribbean

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Revised 1 June Landfall Probability Forecasts

• Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Activity Forecast
• 500 MB Ht. and SLP Predictors

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East Coast Landfall Predictors
April - May 500 MB Ht.
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April - May 500 MB Ht.
EQ.
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April - May SLP
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Gulf Coast Landfall Predictors
May 500 MB Ht.
3
EQ.
1
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May 500 MB Ht.
April-May 500 MB Ht.
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Landfalling Hurricane Prediction Skill
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New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

• Currently Available at the following URL

http//www.e-transit.org/hurricane
In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory
Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA
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Recent Updates

• Historical Database Updated Through 2004 Season
• Historical Database Extended Back to 1851 with
  Revision of the HURDAT Database

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Areas for which Landfall Probabilities are Issued
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REGION 2 - TEXAS LOUISIANA
H
A
J
C
L
O
C
J
V
C
(c)
(b)
(a)
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Future Work

• Monthly Probabilities
• User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly
  Periods)
• Potential Damage

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We must stop GLOBAL WARMING!
LANDFALLINGHURRICANES
MACK