Great Game in Central Asia and Implications for the U.S. Policy Symposia Series: Global Competition

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Great Game in Central Asia and Implications for
the U.S. Policy Symposia Series Global
Competition for Energy Wyoming and the World

• Ahad Abdurahmonov
• March 5th, 2009 Sheridan, WY

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Great Game

• Rivalry and competition between the British
  Empire and the Russian Empire to colonize Central
  Asia 19th and 20th centuries
• The Russian Empire won this competition because
  it had direct land routes to the region
• Controlling Central Asia was desirable for the
  British Empire, but the region was too remote and
  it was difficult and expensive to control the
  area.

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The New Great Game

• It is widely speculated that there is a new Great
  Game among world powers over Central Asia
  particularly because it has huge energy
  resources.
• However
• The current super-powers of the world are too
  much interconnected and interdependent with each
  other that makes direct competition and rivalry
  unattractive choice
• The states of Central Asia also have some choices
  and leverages and they are not stationary objects
  to vie for.

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Central Asias Role in the Global Energy Market

• Energy resources as strategic commodity and the
  new wealth
• Oil in Central Asia accounts for 2-3 of the
  worlds known resources
• Gas in Central Asia accounts for 4-5 of the
  worlds known resources
• Limited options for alternative routes of export
• They can play big powers off each other in
  order to pursue their own agendas

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Map of Central Asia and Russia
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Major Stakeholders Russia

• Virtually all of the Central Asian oil and gas
  exports goes to (or through) Russia via
  still-functioning Soviet-era pipeline systems
• The Russian oil and gas companies have large
  shares in oil and gas reserves of Central Asia
• The Russian oil and gas companies have big and
  long term energy contracts with their Central
  Asia partners.
• Due to the common Soviet past, Russia and Central
  Asia share a common transportation and
  communication infrastructure.

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Major Stakeholders The European Union

• The European Union is the largest natural gas
  market in the world that accounts for 46 of the
  worlds total natural gas imports.
• The EU relies on Russian supply for about 40 of
  its natural gas supply
• Needs to diversify suppliers in order to create
  competition among them for the EU gas market, but
  not to get rid of the Russian gas, because it is
  impossible to entirely replace the Russian
  supply.
• Nabucco pipeline project that would bring
  additional sources of natural gas (and oil) from
  the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
  is currently seen as the way of diversification.

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Nabucco Diversification for the EU
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Major Stakeholders United States

• The U.S. itself has about the same amount of
  natural gas 7 bcm (vs. 8.3 bcm)
• Political and economic feasibility of importing
  oil and gas from Central Asia are low (location,
  difficulty of extraction, transportation, and
  limited amount of resources)
• Russia, EU, and Chinas access to Central Asian
  energy resources is not a loss for the U.S.
• Open competition for energy resources in the
  region can jeopardize the United States policies
  directed towards fighting terrorism and drug
  trafficking in the region as well as promoting
  democracy.

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Conclusion

• Russia, EU, and Chinas access to Central Asian
  energy resources is not a loss for the U.S.
• Russia and Central Asia have natural and
  pre-existing conditions that encourage
  cooperation among them.
• It is impossible for one player to have full
  control over the region without huge political
  and financial commitments and worsening its
  relations with the rest of the world.
• EU (and Chinas) involvement as new importers of
  Central Asian energy resources can create
  additional options them all and diversify energy
  import-export routes.
• United States should have limited engagement and
  mainly support the policies directed towards
  diversification of energy exports and imports.