Taking the Pulse: Polling Citizen Opinion on Tax and Bond Questions

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Taking the PulsePolling Citizen Opinionon Tax
and Bond Questions

• Presented to the North Carolina Association of
  County Commissioners
• 24 January 2008
• By Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D.

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Contents

• Why Poll?
• How Polling is Done
• Questionnaire Development
• Sampling and Sampling Error
• Fielding Interviewing and Quality Control
• Post-Fielding Topline Results, Reporting, and
  Public Release
• Two Examples Durham County 2007
• Last Thoughts

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Why Poll?

• Show your citizens that you care what they think
  by asking them.
• Nothing provokes more citizen objections in a
  referendum campaign than the feeling they are not
  being consulted.
• Test-drive potential tax and bond issues.
• Certain measures may pass easily, while others
  will encounter strong opposition.
• Anticipate Citizen Concerns
• Find out underlying voter concerns and
  objections, so you can address them, either by
  adjusting the proposal to meet them, or answering
  them in your campaign.
• Track Campaign Progress
• Periodic tracking studies can show your citizen
  advocacy group how the campaign is doing, and
  what effect (if any) news reports, advertising
  and endorsements for both sides, and other issues
  are affecting voter attitudes and likelihood to
  vote.

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Questionnaire Development

• Basic Construction
• Done in direct consultation with sponsors.
• Consists of both closed-ended responses
  (yes/no, ratings on a scale, etc.) and
  open-ended verbatim responses.
• Includes essential demographic questions, as well
  as attitudinal and behavioral ones.
• Final draft is programmed into a
  computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI)
  system.
• Research house will manually test the survey
  program multiple times, to find bugs and get them
  corrected.
• Automated testing then is done with
  computer-generated mock data prior to final
  approval.
• IMPORTANT Assume 5 business days from final
  approval of the questionnaire to the start of
  interviewing.

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Questionnaire Development

• Sponsor Identification
• Questionnaire either identifies the sponsor
  (e.g., the Durham County government), or is
  blindedthat is, the polling company is
  identified, but not the sponsor.
• If the county is sponsoring the poll, identifying
  the sponsor is more likely to encourage
  cooperation.
• If a citizen group is sponsoring the poll, it may
  be better to blind the survey, so as not to
  prejudice the respondents answers.
• Rules of thumb
• Need to be brief and to the point to maximize
  responses.
• Ideally 10 minutes or less.
• Response categories should be appropriate to the
  question asked.
• Questions must not lead respondents to a right
  answer.

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Sampling and Sampling Error

• Sampling
• Best source of sample voter registration lists.
• A randomized subset of these are selected to
  obtain telephone number matches from a commercial
  vendor.
• Calls are made from the subset with phone
  numbers.
• If voter registration lists arent available, use
  random-digit dialing (RDD) to residential phone
  numbers, plus screening questions.
• How Many Interviews?
• Minimum is 384 to obtain a sampling error of no
  more than /- 5 overall.
• Comparisons between two or more subsets of voters
  will have higher sampling errors.
• To reduce sampling error to /- 4, need 625
  interviews.

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Sampling and Sampling Error

• Assuring the Sample Looks Like the Electorate
• Essential criterion Talk to registered voters
  who are at least somewhat likely to vote.
• Use stratified random sampling that is, set
  minimum or maximum limits (quotas) of interviews
  from specific demographic categories, based on
  previous turnout and current voter registration.
• State Board of Elections breaks out voters in
  recent elections by gender, race, age cluster,
  and precinct.
• Voter registration lists include additional
  demographics age in years, zip code,
  municipality (if any)

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Fielding

• Briefing/Training
• Once the CATI-programmed questionnaire is
  finalized and the sample is loaded into the
  system, interviewer training and a client
  briefing are held.
• You and the project manager brief the
  interviewers on the locality, the issues theyll
  be asking about, important things to know about
  the community that respondents are likely to
  mention during an interview, and correct
  pronunciation of proper names.
• The interviewers then read through the
  questionnaire aloud, and anything that needs
  correction can be pointed out.
• Interviewing and QA
• After the client briefing, interviewing
  commences.
• During the interviewing period
• Quality assurance monitors from the fielding
  house listen in regularly on the interviewers and
  provide coaching.
• The account manager and research associate also
  perform periodic monitoring to assure our quality
  standards are being met.

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Post-Fielding

• Preliminary Topline Report
• Once the last interview is complete, you can
  receive a preliminary report of the topline
  results.
• Data Management
• Verbatim responses are read and assigned
  numerical codes for quantitative analysis.
• Corrections are made to occasional miskeyed
  responses.
• Data are formatted for analysis and tabulated.
• Data Analysis and Reporting
• The project manager analyzes the results,
  breaking out statistically significant
  differences between demographic groups.
• A full report/presentation is prepared.

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Release (or Not) of Results

• How results are released
• Public meetings, such as County Commission
  sessions, or open meetings of your citizen
  advocacy group.
• Press releases (accompanied if desired by a news
  conference).
• Internet publication.
• When You Must Release Results
• If the county is the identified sponsor of the
  survey.
• Advantage of having a citizen group sponsor your
  poll You dont have to release results.
• Disadvantage of having a citizen group sponsor
  your poll You dont have to release results.
• If a survey is being taken, the local press,
  bloggers, and opposition campaigners will get
  wind of it.
• You can hang on to results that would affect how
  you run your campaign.
• However, releasing data selectively undermines
  the credibility of the results.
• Releases must never be done out of context.

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What You Get from a PollExample 1Durham
County, May 2007
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Durham County, May 2007

• Situation
• Durham County was considering two amounts for a
  school bond the preferred amount, 195 million,
  and a lesser amount, 150 million.
• It also wanted to float three smaller bond
  issues.
• Before the General Assembly session, it also
  wanted to evaluate support for alternative tax
  measures.
• Method
• Hertzog Research adapted a study design another
  research house had used for the county four years
  before.
• Essential to that was stating, in the question,
  the estimated cost of each bond issue in property
  taxes on a 200,000 house.

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Durham County, May 2007

• Result
• Surprisingly, support was equally strong for a
  school bond at 195 million, and at 150 million.
• Those who supported it at 150 million, also did
  so at 195 million.
• Likewise, those who opposed it at 195 million
  also opposed it at 150 million.
• Two of the three smaller bond issues had wide
  support one did not.
• Voters were amenable to a prepared-food tax, but
  not to a 1 land-transfer tax.
• County Action
• The 195 million school bond was placed on the
  ballot.
• The two smaller bonds that had strong majority
  support were also placed on the ballot the one
  with less support was not.

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Executive Summary
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150 Million School BondQ4. Another
possibility is a Durham Public Schools bond issue
with fewer projects, but for a smaller amount, at
the 150 million level. This COULD increase the
property tax on a 200,000 home by 100 per year.
Considering this possibility, how would you vote
on a Durham Public Schools bond issue for 150
million? Q4A. Would you say you lean more
toward voting yes, or toward voting no, on
the school bond issue, or are you really not
sure?Q5. (Asked only of respondents who
answered no or lean no) What would your
reasons be for voting no on the school bond
referendum?
Question Wording Example
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Durham Public Schools 150 Million Bond
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Durham Public Schools 150 Million Bond

• Q4 School bond at 150 million
• Whites were somewhat more likely than blacks to
  give dont know responses.
• As age increases, likelihood to vote for the bond
  decreases the yes vote diminishes from 77
  among those 25 to 34, down to 38 among those 65
  or older.
• Those with children under 18 at home are
  significantly more likely to vote yes.
• Those with children enrolled in the DPS system
  are significantly more likely to vote yes.
• Those who said they definitely will vote were
  less likely to be undecided than were those who
  said they just probably will vote.
• A plurality of those who said they are well
  informed about DPS construction projects were no
  voters, while those who said they were somewhat
  informed supported the bonds nearly two-to-one.

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Durham Public Schools No Vote Reasons

• Q5. Reasons for responses of no or lean no
  on school bond
• White women were more likely than other groups to
  cite the fact that they did not have children in
  the Durham Public Schools as a reason for voting
  no.
• Those who said they were somewhat informed about
  DPS construction projects were more likely to
  cite the cost to taxpayers than were either those
  who said they were well informed, or those who
  said they were not well informed.

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Alternative Tax Proposals
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Alternative Tax Proposals

• Q9 Prepared food tax
• Majorities of black and white voters support the
  proposed tax, while a majority of the other-races
  respondents oppose it.
• Support is strongest in zip codes 27703 and
  27705, and weakest in zips 27712 and 27713 while
  the dont know share is significant in zips
  27701 and 27707.
• Q10 Land transfer tax
• Homeowners and renters differ drastically.
  Homeowners, the huge majority of respondents,
  oppose a land transfer tax by 25-66, with 9
  undecided. Most renters favor the land transfer
  tax, 56-31, with 13 undecided. (In contrast,
  views on the prepared food tax were almost
  identical among both homeowners and renters.)
• African-Americans are significantly more likely
  to support the tax than are whites and other-race
  respondents. This appears to be directly related
  to the higher share of home renters among black
  respondents compared with white and other-race
  respondents.
• Support is weakest in zip code 27713, where 17
  are in favor, 65 opposed, and 18 not sure. The
  smallest share of no votes is in zip 27701,
  where 32 are in favor, 48 opposed, and 19 not
  sure.

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Alternative Tax Proposals
Q11. Now lets suppose the bond issues weve
discussed were financed largely by a prepared
food tax, or a land transfer tax, or both, rather
than higher property taxes. Would this make you
more likely, or less likely, to vote for the bond
issues, or would it make no difference in your
vote?
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Preferences between the Proposals

• After being asked their opinions on each of the
  two tax proposals, we asked the respondents this
  question Under North Carolina law, even if the
  voters pass both of these tax proposals, the
  County could levy only one EITHER the sales tax
  increase, OR the land transfer tax, BUT NOT BOTH.
  Regardless of how you would vote on these
  proposals, if you HAD to choose between them,
  which one would you rather see enactedthe
  one-quarter of 1 sales tax increase on non-food
  items, OR the four-tenths of 1 land transfer tax
  paid by sellers of real estate?
• The answers appear at right.

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Demographic Check Sample v. Self-Report
Just as occurred in the May survey, about 2-3 of
all voters, who are classified in voter
registration records as black, categorize
themselves otherwise in the survey, most often
multiracial or some other race. If voter
registration records are used, rather than
self-categorization, then 30.4 of respondents
are black, and 2.7 belong to all other racial
categories.
This table compares the survey respondents to the
turnout by race in Durham County in the November
2006 general election, and to the Durham County
voter registration rolls as of 18 April 2007.
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What You Get from a PollExample 2Durham
County, August 2007
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Durham County, August 2007

• Situation
• After the General Assembly session, Durham County
  wanted to evaluate support for the two
  alternative tax measures the 0.25 sales tax on
  non-food items, and the 0.4 land transfer tax.
• It also wanted to see what effect placing an
  alternative tax measure on the ballot would have
  on support for the three bond issues.
• Method
• Hertzog Research adapted the study design from
  the May survey.
• Essential to that was stating, in the question,
  the estimated cost of each bond issue in property
  taxes on a 200,000 house.

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Durham County, August 2007

• The Before Sequence
• After establishing that they qualified to be
  interviewed, respondents were first asked how
  they would vote on each of the three bond issues
  on the November ballot.
• Question wording was similar to that in the May
  bond survey, and specified the estimated cost per
  year in property taxes on a 200,000 home.
• The order in which each bond was asked about was
  randomized.
• The alternative tax questions
• Respondents were then asked about the two
  alternative tax proposals the 0.25 sales tax
  increase on non-food items, and the 0.4 land
  transfer tax.
• Each question specified the estimated first-year
  revenue, and the estimated effect on the property
  taxes on a 200,000 home.
• Following this, they were asked, regardless of
  how they stood on either tax proposal, to name
  which one they would prefer if they had to choose
  one.
• The After Sequence
• Finally, respondents were asked again how they
  would vote on each of the three bond issues, if
  either the sales tax increase or the land
  transfer tax (or both) were also on the November
  ballot.
• The order in which each bond was asked about was
  again randomized

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Durham County, August 2007

• Result
• There was majority support for a sales tax
  increase.
• The land transfer tax was deeply unpopular.
• Surprisingly, support was just as strong for the
  195 million school bond even if the sales tax
  increase were put on the ballot at the same time.
• However, there was a decrease in support for the
  smaller bond issues if the sales tax were also to
  be placed on the ballot.
• Both smaller bond issues still had majority
  support.
• County Action
• The sales tax measure was not placed on the
  ballot.
• No serious public opposition arose to the bond
  issues.
• The bond issues, as a result, passed with more
  than 80 of the vote in November.
• Note that the dollar amounts of property tax
  effects on the average 200,000 home were not
  included on the ballotas they were in our
  survey, in anticipation of opposition.

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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
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Alternative Tax Proposals
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Alternative Tax Proposals

• Q4 0.25 Sales tax increase on non-food items
• Men are significantly more likely to support the
  sales tax increase, while women are more likely
  than men to be undecided on this question.
• Voters aged 35-44 are somewhat more likely to
  oppose the tax than other age groupsbut the tax
  enjoys majority support among this age group as
  well.
• Remarkably, there are no other significant
  differences on this tax by respondent segment.
• Q5 0.4 Land transfer tax
• This measure does not receive more than 36
  support from any demographic segment.
• Women are more likely than men to say they are
  not sure about how they would vote on the land
  transfer tax, while men are more likely to be
  firmly opposed.
• Opposition is greatest in zip 27707 and 27712,
  and least intense in zips 27704 and 27705.

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Durham Public Schools 195 Million Bond

• NOTE On this chart and those that follow, the
  term Before means the initial stand on the bond
  when the question is first asked, before any
  mention of the alternative tax proposals.
  After means the voters stands after the tax
  measures were asked about. We specifically ask
  how they would vote on each bond measure if
  either the sales tax increase or the land
  transfer tax, or both, should also appear on the
  November ballot.

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Durham Technical Community College Bond
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N.C. Museum of Life Science Bond
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Last Thoughts
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Last Thoughts Polling Challenges

• Message overload
• Many voters screen all calls, or refuse to answer
  calls from numbers they do not recognize, in
  order to avoid solicitation calls.
• The cell phone challenge
• An increasing number of people, estimated at 7
  today, use (unlisted) cell phones as their
  primary phones, rather than a land line or
  internet-based phone.
• However, these are predominantly more transient
  populations students, immigrants, and newcomers
  to an area.
• Dislike or distrust of polls
• The proliferation of bogus polls, the
  misreporting or misuse of legitimate polls and
  politicians and media, and the belief that public
  officials use polls to determine their stands on
  issues, lead many in the public to have a bad
  attitude toward all opinion research.

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Last Thoughts When You Poll

• Use the phone. Internet polls arent
  representative.
• Internet usage is tilted heavily toward younger,
  higher-income people.
• You lose those who arent online regularlywho
  often are among the most likely to vote.
• Sample is self-selected. In a telephone poll
  using probability sampling, any registered voter
  is far more likely to be included.
• Choose a research partner that cares as much
  about your project as you do.
• Large research houses are geared toward ongoing
  relationships with very large commercial clients.
  
• Your county may be large, but your polling needs
  are not.
• Therefore, you will be treated as a small,
  one-off client, and your needs will fall through
  the cracks.
• Choose a smaller house that specializes in custom
  research, and that understands the needs of your
  community.

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Conclusion

• Questions and comments regarding this
  presentation may be directed to
• Mark Wm. Hertzog, Ph.D., Principal
• Hertzog Research, LLC
• 601 Jones Ferry Road, Suite N7
• Carrboro, NC 27510
• [phone]
• mark_at_hertzogresearch.com