Changing Demographics of College Students: Implications for Our Field

1
Changing Demographics of College Students
Implications for Our Field

• Russ Hodges, Ed.D.
• Texas State University-San Marcos

Minnesota Association for Developmental Education
(MNADE) Creating Academic Communities Promoting
Student Connections Thursday, September 27, 2007
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Overview

• Population Trends
• U.S. Postsecondary Enrollment Trends
• Participation in Learning Assistance / DE
• Implications for the Field

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World Population Estimates

• September 21, 2007 6,619,724,367
• December 29, 2006 6,566,433,779
• October 12, 1999 Day of 6 Billion
• 1900 1.6 Billion

U.S. Census Bureau International Programs
Center, 2007.

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U.S. Population

• September 21, 2007 302 Million
• One birth every...................................
  ............ 7 seconds
• One death every...................................
  ........ 13 seconds
• One international migrant (net) every............
  26 seconds
• Net gain of one person every......................
  .. 10 seconds
• 2000 - 281 Million
• 1990 - 249 Million

U.S. Census Bureau, 2007. U.S. PopClock
Projection. U.S. Census Bureau, 2007. American
Fact Finder.
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10 Fastest Growing States Between 1990 2000
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Anderson, 2003
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U.S. Population by Race-Ethnicity 1990 2000
Percent of total population
Anderson, 2003
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U.S. Population Growth for Hispanics

• 44 states had over a 40 rate of growth among
  Hispanics from 1990 to 2000.
• The Hispanic population is projected by the
  Census Bureau to rise from 22.5 million in 1990
  to just under 90 million by 2050.

Anderson, 2003

U.S. Census Bureau, 2007. American Fact Finder.
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U.S. PostsecondaryEnrollment Trends
Snyder Tan, 2005
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National Demographics of Students
Enrollment by Race
Percentage distribution of students enrolled in
degree-granting institutions, by race/ethnicity
in Fall 2002
Snyder, Tan, Hoffman, 2006.
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Minority EnrollmentPast 20 Year Trend

• Total minority enrollment at the nations
  postsecondary institutions surged by 122 over
  the past 20 years (1980-2000).
• 1980-81 - 2 million minorities
• 2000-01 - 4.3 million minorities (15.3 Million
  Total)

American Council of Education, 2003
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Degree Completion by Race
(11.9 enrollment)
(10.0 enrolment)
Percentage distribution of students who earned a
degree of associates or higher, by race/ethnicity
in 2002-2003
Knapp, et al., 2005
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Faculty and Staff by Race

• In 2003, about 15 of faculty in colleges and
  universities were minorities
• Caucasians - 83 (males 47 females
  36)
• Blacks - 6
• Asian/Pacific Islanders - 5
• Hispanics - 4
• American Indians/Alaska Natives - .5
• About 17 of professional staff were minorities,
  compared to about 31 of nonprofessional staff.

• Snyder, Tan, Hoffman, 2006.

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Bachelors Degree Completion1999-2000

• Students starting at a 4-year public or private
  institution - Mean time to completion is 55
  months.
• Attending 1 institution - 51 Months (4.25 years)
• Attending 2 institutions - 59 Months (4.9 years)
• Attending 3 or more - 67 Months (5.6 years)
• Students starting at 2-year institutions and then
  transferring to 4-year institutions - Mean time
  to completions is 71 months (year and a half
  longer).

Wirt, et al., 2003
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Community Colleges

• Today, community colleges educate more than half
  the nation's undergraduates.
• Since 1901, at least 100 million people have
  attended community colleges.
• Enrollment 10.4 million students
• 5.4 million for credit
• 5 million noncredit
• 44 of all U.S. undergraduates
• 45 of first-time freshmen
• 58 women, 42 men
• 63 part time 37 full time (12 credit hours)

Phillippe, 2000
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Community College Students Transferring to 4-Year
Institutions

• Before 1995, between 21.5 - 23.7
• 1995, 25.1
• Transfer rate definition by the center
• All students entering the 2-year college in a
  given year who have no prior college experience
  and who complete at least 12 college credit units
  with four years, divided into the number of that
  group who take one or more classes at a public,
  in-state university within four years.
• Note 42 of beginning 2-year students aspire to
  obtain a bachelors degree.

Cohen Brawer, 2003
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U.S. Postsecondary Enrollment by Sex Actual
2002-03 and Projected 2013-14

• Total enrollments for men will undergo a 12
  increase.
• Total enrollments for women will undergo a 20
  increase.

Hussar, 2005
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U.S. Postsecondary Degrees Earned by Sex

• The number of men earning associates will
  undergo a 9 increase.
• The number of women earning associates will
  undergo a 20 increase.
• The number of men earning bachelors will undergo
  a 10 increase.
• The number of women earning bachelors will
  undergo a 22 increase.

Hussar, 2005
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Where Are The Guys?

• Between 1967 and 2000, college enrollment of
• Female high school graduates aged 18-24 increased
  from 25.1 to 45.6
• Male high school graduates age 18-24 decreased
  from 44.7 to 40.9
• From 1975 -2001 the number of Bachelors Degrees
  awarded increased by 321,238. Of this increase,
• Males earned 8
• Females 92

Mortenson, 2003
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Enrollment by Age

• The number of young students has been growing
  more rapidly than the number of older students,
  but this pattern is expected to shift.
• Between 1990 and 2004
• the enrollment of students under age 25 increased
  by 31.
• The enrollment of persons 25 and over rose by 17
  
• From 2004 to 2014, NCES projects a rise of 11 in
  enrollments of persons under 25, and an increase
  of 15 in the number 25 and over.

Snyder, Dillow, Hoffman, 2007
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Most popular majors (2004-2005)

• Of approximately 1.5 million bachelors degrees
  conferred, the largest numbers conferred in
• Business
• Social sciences and History
• Education
• Masters degrees
• Education
• Business

• Doctors degrees
• Education
• Engineering
• Health professions
• Biological / biomedical sciences
• Psychology

Snyder, Dillow, Hoffman, 2007
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Mean Earnings by Degree Level
McGuinnes Jones, 2003
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Leaky Educational Pipeline

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Predicted Educational Progression of 2020 Young
Americans in Preparation for 21-Century
Employment
McCabe, 2000
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Participation in Developmental Courses

• Fall 2000 - 28 of entering freshmen enrolled in
  one or more developmental course at all
  postsecondary institutions (approximately 40 at
  CC).
• Proportion of Entering Freshmen
• Math - 22
• Writing - 14
• Reading - 11

Lewis Basmat, 2003
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Entering Freshmen Enrolled in Developmental
Courses (1995 and 2000).
Snyder Tan, 2005
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Percent of Students Successfully Completing
Developmental Courses
Too few cases for reliable estimate of reading
course completion at private 2-year institutions
Lewis et al., 2006
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Percent of Students Passing Highest Level
Developmental Course and Taking and Passing First
College-Level Course in that Subject
Boylan, 2002
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Educational Attainment of Remedial
Coursetakers Among 1992 12th-graders who
enrolled in postsecondary education who earned a
specific degree or certificate, by type and
intensity of postsecondary coursework 2000
30
41
41
56
67
Adelman, 2004
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CC Faculty Teaching Developmental and College
Level Courses
Shults, 2001
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Minnesota Developmental Education

• High School Graduating Class of 1999
• 33 took one or more DE course
• High School Graduating Classes of 2001 2002
• 36 took one or more DE course
• More high school graduates, especially those who
  had not planned to go to college, are enrolling
  in postsecondary education.

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2005
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Minnesota Developmental Education

• Mathematics is the most frequent development
  course taken

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2005
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Minnesota Developmental Education
Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2005
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Implications For The Field

• Projected percent of changes in the number of
  public high school graduates, by state, 2002-03
  through 2015-16
• Increases are projected for 20 states
• Arizona 71.5
• Nevada 67.5
• Florida 21.1
• Georgia 20.4
• North Carolina 18.4
• Texas 15.5
• Decreases are projected for 30 states
• Minnesota -11.7
• West Virginia -11.9
• District of Columbia -12.7
• Maine -13.8
• South Dakota -21.1

Hussar Bailey, 2006
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Implications For The Field

• U.S. College Enrollment Will Increase for Some
  States and Decrease for Others
• In Texas, Between 2000 and 2040, from 792,000 to
  1,936,000 students
• 1,144,000 more students (145 change)
• Community College will absorb a large proportion
  of these students.
• In Texas, Between 2000 and 2040, from 421, 000 to
  1,275,000 (203 change)
• Enrollments in Texas CC have skyrocketed over the
  past four years--up an average of about 29,000
  students annually,

Murdock, White, Hoque, Pecotte, You, Balkan,
2003
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Implications For The Field

• In the Metro Alliance of the Minnesota State
  Colleges and Universities and the University of
  Minnesota-Twin cities enrollment has increased by
  24.7 from 1999-2005.
• The age distribution of students has changed,
  with fewer students starting college straight
  from high school.

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2005
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Implications For Our Field

• More Diverse Student Population
• In Texas by 2040, 67 of the states population
  is projected to be Hispanic.
• Texas College Enrollment Predictions

Murdock, White, Hoque, Pecotte, You, Balkan,
2003
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Minnesota Predictions

• More diverse student population
• Although there was little change in the diversity
  of post-secondary enrollment from 2001-2005, the
  change in enrollment during the same period for
  public school indicates a trend that will extend
  to postsecondary enrollment.

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2007
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Implications For Our Field

• More Diverse Student Population
• Public school enrollment in the 11 County Twin
  Cities Area for 2001-2006

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2007
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Implications For Our Field

• We will need more tutors and faculty
• In Texas by 2015
• 17,754 additional faculty will be needed
• 10,190 for community colleges
• 7,564 for universities
• Nationwide, we will need additional faculty
  specializing in learning assistance and DE.

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2004
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Implications For Our Field

• We are likely to see new graduate programs emerge
  and additional professional development
  opportunities specializing in developmental
  education and learning assistance.
• In Texas, Texas State University-San Marcos is
  currently developing a new doctoral program in
  DE.
• CRLA is developing individual certification.
• We are likely to see more coordination and
  collaboration between our national organizations
  offering professional development opportunities.
  One possible recommendation is to create a new
  organization. (Blue Ribbon Commission Home Page
  http//www.tc.umn.edu/arend011/brc.htm)

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Implications For Our Field

• Our learning centers and tutoring programs will
  need to assist with distance learning.
• Currently, more than 68 of institutions offer
  some form of distance education and this figure
  is expected to grow.

Waits Lewis 2003

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Largest Degree-granting College and University
Campuses 2005
Snyder, Dillow, Hoffman, 2007
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Implications For The Future

• Online Resources
• Minnesota Online, a two year consortium of
  colleges, offers thousands of online credit and
  non-credit courses and over 200 online degree,
  certificate, and diploma programs.
• Minnesota Online also offers a host of online
  student resources.
• These accredited online programs and online
  student services are offered by the Minnesota
  State Colleges and Universities.
• The enrollment growth for Minnesota Online
  increased 44 from 2005-2006 and 25 from
  2006-2007.
• Most students are those who do not live within
  metropolitan areas.

Minnesota Online. (n.d.) C. Roberts (personal
communication, September 21, 2007
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Implications For Our Field

• We must continue to improve our student success
  rates.
• In Texas, less than 30 of the students entering
  existing developmental courses successfully
  complete them within two years.

Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, 2004
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Implications For Our Field

• Minnesota is doing well!
• 84 of the Minnesota high school class of 2002
  who enrolled in college developmental education
  classes had earned a GPA of 2.0 or better within
  two years.
• Of these, 28 had a GPA of 3.0 or better

Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
University of Minnesota, 2005
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Implications For Our Field

• Future trends in the job market will require more
  postsecondary education.