The science of climate change the need for a global response - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 30
About This Presentation
Title:

The science of climate change the need for a global response

Description:

A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the ... Amazon rainforest could ... convert the majority of the Amazon rainforest into savannah ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:64
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 31
Provided by: mbi1
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: The science of climate change the need for a global response


1
The science of climate change - the need for a
global response
  • Sir David King
  • Chief Scientific Adviser to
  • HM Government
  • Linnean Society
  • 19 February 2007

2
21st Century Challenges
  • Population growth
  • Resources
  • Environment
  • Infectious diseases
  • Climate Change

3
Earths Atmosphere
Source Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program, A Report by the Climate
Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on
Global Change Research (July 2003) figure 3.1
4
Carbon cycles
5
The earths energy budget
6

383ppm (2006)
Fedorov et al, Science 312 (2006) 1485
7

Source Hadley Centre
8
Understanding impacts
Source Hadley Centre
Source Stern Review
9
Greenland ice sheet
Source Met Office
10
Surface Melt on Greenland
Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft
carrying water to ice sheet base
Source Roger Braithwaite, University of
Manchester
11
Difficult non linear feedbackphenomena
  • Deep sea methane clathrates
  • Weakening the Atlantic Overturning
    Circulation-Thermohaline Gulf Stream, global heat
    conveyor
  • Equatorial forest switch from CO2 net absorption
    to net emission
  • Change in Earths net albedo, including global
    ice and cloud cover

12
Resources Ecosystem services
13
Unprecedented change Biogeochemical Cycles
  • Since 1960
  • Flows of biologically available nitrogen in
    terrestrial ecosystems doubled
  • Flows of phosphorus tripled
  • More than 50 of all the synthetic nitrogen
    fertilizer ever used has been used since 1985

Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen
Humans produce as much biologically available N
as all natural pathways and this may grow a
further 65 by 2050
Source Millennium Ecosystems Assessment
14
Degradation of ecosystem services often causes
significant harm to human well-being
  • The total economic value associated with managing
    ecosystems more sustainably is often higher than
    the value associated with conversion
  • Conversion may still occur because private
    economic benefits are often greater for the
    converted system

Source Millennium Ecosystems Assessment
15
Biodiversity loss
Living Planet Index 1970-2000
  • Causes
  • habitat destruction and fragmentation
  • over-exploitation and bad management
  • invasive alien species
  • pollution
  • climate change

Source WWF Living Planet Report, 2002
16
Significant and largely irreversible changes to
species diversity
  • The distribution of species on Earth is becoming
    more homogenous
  • Humans have increased the species extinction rate
    by as much as 1,000 times over background rates
    typical over the planets history (medium
    certainty)
  • 1030 of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are
    currently threatened with extinction (medium to
    high certainty))

Source Millennium Ecosystems Assessment
17
Climate Change and Biodiversity
  • By the end of the century, climate change and its
    impacts may be the dominant direct driver of
    biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem
    services globally.

The golden toad of Costa Rica has the dubious
distinction of being the first species to have
become extinct due to climate change (RSPB).

18
Changes in distribution of zooplankton groups in
the N E Atlantic, 1958 - 2002
From Beaugrand et al. (2002). Science. 296
19
Changes in plankton have implications
for higher trophic levels e.g fish
From Beaugrand et al. (2003) Nature 426
20
Committed to extinction?
From Chris Thomas et al (2004) Nature
21
Amazon rainforest could turn to savannah
  • Climate change and deforestation could convert
    the majority of the Amazon rainforest into
    savannah
  • massive impacts on the world's biodiversity and
    climate

22
Adapt and Mitigate
  • We must adapt in preparation for the significant
    changes ahead and manage the risks country by
    country.
  • We have to actively mitigate against the
    production of greenhouse gases by
  • Switching to low carbon energy sources
  • Energy efficiency

23
Biodiversity and mitigation
  • Exploit synergies Avoiding deforestation, can
    have substantial biodiversity benefits and tackle
    mitigation (deforestation - 18 global CO2
    emissions)
  • Avoid conflicts Need to understand implications
    of biofuels for biodiversity and ecosystem
    services

24
Biodiversity and biofuels
  • Ongoing research on benefits of biodiversity over
    monocultures

Source Tilman et al, (2006) Science 314, p1598
25
Global dimensions of the mitigation problem
Source Carbon Trust
26
Emissions path to stabilisation
Global emissions (gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
gases per year)
Source Stern Review
27
G8 Gleneagles, UK 2005
  • Climate change UK government priority
  • Agreement to take forward Dialogue on Climate
    Change
  • G8 countries and other (developing) countries
    need to be involved

28
Second Gleneagles Dialogue, Mexico October 2006
  • Science and economic analysis (Stern) is now
    accepted
  • Cost of inaction to global economies is huge
  • Need to both adapt and mitigate
  • Energy efficiency carbon capture storage new
    low carbon sources all require investment now.

29
  • Energy Technologies Institute
  • Public-Private partnership between UK Government
    and industry
  • BP, Shell, EDF, EOn, Caterpillar Inc, Rolls
    Royce, SSEG all core partners
  • Will invest over 1bn in energy research, design,
    demonstration and development over 10 years
  • Looking to develop links with other countries

30
Conclusion
  • Climate change is a global problem which needs a
    global solution
  • UK is developing a robust and coherent strategy
  • Need to address both transport and the built
    environment as well as decentralised energy
    issues
  • Action is affordable Inaction is not!
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com