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Wilderness, Water and Climate Change

• Randy Bramer
• USDA Office of the General Counsel
• Golden, CO

June 12, 2008
3
Issues

• What are the potential effects of climate change
  on water?
• How will these changes affect wilderness?
• What can you do?

4
Water Is A Scarce Resource
5
Water Is A Scarce Resource In High Demand

• Today, in some areas of the West, existing
  water supplies are, or will be, inadequate to
  meet the water demands of people, cities, farms,
  and the environment even under normal water
  supply conditions.
• U.S. Department of the Interior, Water 2025
  Preventing Crisis and Conflict in the West
  (2003)

6
While the U.S. is relatively water rich, the
western part of the nation -- where most National
Forests are located -- is water poor.
7
Demand For Water Will IncreasePopulation of
the West has increased 50 in the last 20 years
and is expected to increase another 300 by 2040.

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What are the Potential Impacts of Climate Change
on Water?
10
Climate Change
Overall temperatures in the Rockies and around
the world are rising dramatically. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports
that global mean surface temperature increased by
0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit)
over the 20th century. In the Western Hemisphere,
the warming was greater than in any other century
for the last 1,000 years, and the 1990s were the
warmest decade of the entire millennium. The
IPCC, which issued its most recent assessment
report in 2001, now predicts that global mean
temperatures will rise anywhere from 1.5 to 5.8
degrees Celsius (2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit)
between 1990 and 2100 a rate of warming very
likely without precedent in the last 10,000
years.
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Climate Change and Water

• What do you really need to tell people about
  climate change and water? Its getting hotter.
  Well get less snow. The snow will melt earlier.
  Thats all you need to say.
• Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water
  Resources, Southwest Hydrology , January/
  February 2007

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Climate Change Water - The Global Picture
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• Climate change means that
• creeping deserts may
• eventually drive 135 million
• people off their land, the
• United Nations estimates.
• Most of them are in the
• developing world. But
• Southern Europe is
• experiencing the problem
• now, its climate drying to the
• point that it is becoming more
• like Africas, scientists say.
• In Spain, Water Is a New Battleground, NY Times,
  June 3, 2008

15
Water Is Likely to Get Scarcer Due to Climate
Change North America

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  concludes that climate change will strain many of
  North Americas water resources, increasing the
  competition for water.
• A warmer climate will affect the seasonable
  availability of water by increasing evaporation
  and reducing snowpacks.
• The Columbia River and other heavily used water
  systems of western North America are expected to
  be particularly vulnerable.
• Groundwater-based systems in the Southwest are
  also likely to be stressed by climate change.
• Heavier precipitation will very likely increase
  waterborne diseases and affect water quality, and
  higher variability of precipitation will make
  water management more difficult.
• Possible Water Resources Impacts in North
  America, Climate Change Health and
• Environmental Effects, EPA, December 20, 2007

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Impacts of Climate Change on Waterin the West

• More heat
• Smaller snowpacks
• Earlier snowmelt
• More evaporation and dryness
• More flood-control releases
• Less groundwater
• More legal restrictions
• More droughts
• Less Snow, Less Water Climate Disruption in the
  West, September 2005, Stephen Saunders and
  Maureen Maxwell, The Rocky Mountain Climate
  Organization.

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West and Southwest

• Likely reduction in snowpacks and seasonal shifts
  in runoff patterns
• Possible declines in groundwater recharge -
  reduced water supplies
• Increased water temperatures - further stress on
  aquatic species
• Increased frequency of intense precipitation
  events - increased risk of flash floods
• Possible summer salinity increase in San
  Francisco Bay and Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001,
  2007

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Portage Glacier

• Alaska

Photos NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch
WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org
19

• The entire Jackson-Blackfoot Glacier Basin in
  Glacier National Park was covered in a single
  glacier as recently as 1920.
• Scientists predict both will be gone by 2030.

20
Climate change has been linked to declining
snowpacks, retreating glaciers, and changing
patterns of precipitation and runoff. The
evidence shows that we are entering a period of
water scarcity not seen in our history. The
national forests were created in part for
securing favorable conditions of water flows,
the importance of which has grown as populations
have grown. We can make a difference by managing
national forests and grasslands to restore
ecological processes and functions that support
clean and healthy streams, lakes, and
aquifers. Forest Service Chief Gail Kimbell
21
The New War?

• The battles of yesterday were fought over
• land. Those of the present center
• on oil. But those of the future a future
• made hotter and drier by climate change in much
• of the world seem likely to focus on water.
• In Spain, Water Is a New Battleground, NY
• Times, June 3, 2008

22
How Might Climate Change Affect Wilderness?

• The change that is having the biggest and most
  obvious biological impact is the early arrival of
  spring. This could cause entire ecosystems to
  become unbalanced if species respond to the
  warmer weather at different rates.
• Worldwide, effects were also apparent in the
  ecosystems of oceans, lakes and rivers. Changes
  to the migration patterns of fish have led to
  them invading waters that were once too cold.
• Other important impacts include an increase in
  the extent of forest fires each year in Canada.
• Nature 453, 353-357 (15 May 2008 )

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• By mid-century, the main pulse of the spring
  snowmelt runoff in the Upper Colorado River Basin
  is expected to come approximately two weeks
  earlier than at the present. By the end of the
  century, snowmelt runoff is expected four weeks
  earlier in virtually all of the six southwestern
  states. Run off is also expected to decrease, in
  part due to higher evaporation rates that come
  with higher temperatures.
• Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water
  Resources, Southwest Hydrology , January/
  February 2007

24
Impacts on High Alpine Vegetation

• Climate change could make major changes in the
  character of our mountains and in the abundance
  and variety of life they support.
• The Rocky Mountains' famous wildflowers, meadows,
  and expanses of mountain-top tundra could all be
  greatly reduced, or perhaps almost vanish, as a
  result of climate change. So could many alpine
  species of animals and plants.

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• We're projecting, from these experiments,
  there's going to be a tremendous decline in the
  abundance of the flowers. You think of meadows
  strewn with gorgeous flowers. Many of those
  flowering plants are going to be decimated.'
• Dr. John Harte, Professor of Environmental
  Science

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Impacts on Trees

• Under most climate-change scenarios, forest types
  are predicted to shift uphill, implying that the
  forest that regenerates after a modern-day beetle
  kill may look very different from the one that
  came before it.

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• For a forest, climate change means two things --
  bigger fires,
• and lots more of them.
• High-elevation forests will have a tough time
  coming back if
• they burn, Cronn says. The conditions necessary
  for
• seedling survival just arent there. That means
  unless
• something unforeseen happens, the entire
  high-country
• ecosystem in the West is going to undergo radical
  change,
• including the dislocation of thousands of
  wildlife species for
• whom these forests are home. If and when the
  island forests of
• Conifers are lost to fire, theyre not going to
  reseed.
• Grasslands will quickly move up in elevation and
  take over.
• Devanter, P., High Country News, September 24,
  2007

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The White Bark Pine

• Whitebark pines form the roofbeam of our mountain
  landscapes.
• In the past it was too cold for mountain pine
  beetles to survive at higher elevations.
• When temperatures are increased by as little as
  two degree Celsius the beetles have been found to
  race thorugh a one year life cycle at higher
  elevations.

30
Impacts on Animals The Amphibians

• Researchers looked at amphibian survey records
  from about 50 different sites in Central and
  South America, charting the timing of extinction
  for about 70 different species of harlequin
  frogs. They found that these disappearances
  occurred in lockstep with warming global
  temperatures.
• "Disease is the bullet killing frogs, but climate
  change is pulling the trigger," ecologist Alan
  Pounds
• Biologists have long argued that amphibians, with
  their delicate, porous skins, are the proverbial
  canaries in the coal mine, the species most
  sensitive to global environmental change.
• Climate Change is Pulling the Trigger, High
  Country News, January 23, 2006

31
Impacts on Animals

• Pika, a cool-weather-loving mountain rodent, is
  vanishing from the Sierra Nevada

32
Natural Preservation and Global Warming

• In the age of global warming, public-land
  managers face a stark choice They can let
  national parks and other wildlands lose their
  most cherished wildlife. Or they can become
  gardeners and zookeepers.
• Unnatural Preservation, High Country News,
  February 4, 2008

33
The Choices?

• Do we rush to rescue climate-imperiled species
  before it's too late? or
• Do we let nature take its course, quietly
  watching the disappearance of species that we
  have spent decades restoring and protecting?
• Unnatural Preservation, High Country News,
  February 4, 2008

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• So professional preservationists, and the
  environmental
• movement as a whole, are left with unnatural
  choices They
• can intervene aggressively to maintain habitat
  threatened by
• planetary warming installing sprinkler systems
  around
• California's giant sequoias, to name one
  suggestion floated by
• scientists. In the process they would become
  something akin
• to farmers and pet fanciers. They can intervene
  aggressively to
• provide huge migration paths northward for
  heat-threatened
• plants and animals. Because this would require
  them to help
• dramatically change existing ecosystems, it would
  turn the
• current conservation ethic on its head. Or they
  can decide to
• continue to use the traditional hands-off
  approach - and
• thereby allow millennia old ecosystems to die off
  and be
• replaced in ways that would never have happened
  naturally, if
• not for global warming.
• Unnatural Preservation, High Country News,
  February 4, 2008

35
How Will Climate Change Affect Water Uses In
Wilderness?
36
Impacts

• Climate change is likely to decrease water
  quantity due to decreased snowpacks and seasonal
  shifts in runoff patterns and possible declines
  in groundwater recharge resulting in reduced
  water supplies.
• Climate change will also impact water quality
  through increased water temperatures and
  increased rainfall.

37
Impacts on Water Allocation

• Competition for the use of limited and declining
  water resources in the West continues to
  increase. This competition will likely increase
  as climate change continues.
• With this increased competition and a
  corresponding increase in administrative
  enforcement by States, there is likely to be more
  pressure for water removal from federal lands on
  or near wilderness
• Decreased water availability and changes in the
  seasonal availability of water will directly
  affect how these water rights are defined and
  subsequently administered.

38
Impacts on Uses of Water in or Near Wilderness
39
Ski Areas

• There will likely be an increase in requests for
  snowmaking on NFS land. Water for these uses may
  come from NFS land adjacent to wildernesses.

40
Recreation

• Potential increases in camping, hiking, and
  fishing would draw different outdoor recreation
  enthusiasts to the area and those activities
  might be available for a longer period of time
  during the year.
• US National Assessment of the Potential
  Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
  Educational Resources Regional Paper Rocky
  Mountain /Great Basin Region, US Climate Change
  Science Program / US Global Change Research
  Program

41
Impacts on Grazing

• Changes in availability of water and timing of
  runoff caused by climate change may change the
  locations of allotments as well as the season of
  use.

42
Impacts on Water Storage Facilities

• The snow pack is our major reservoir, and we
  dont have artificial reservoirs sufficient in
  size to manage it in a way that nature manages
  it for us
• Kathleen Miller, National Center for Atmospheric
  Research and author of the book Climate Change
  and Water Resources A primer for Municipal
  Water Providers.

43
Impacts on Water Storage Facilities

• Overall, temperature increases are expected to
  decrease the ability of our mountain water
  towers to reliably deliver water in the
  quantities we have come to expect and when we
  need it most.
• Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water
  Resources, Southwest Hydrology , January/
  February 2007

44
Water Storage

• Likely to be increased pressure to store and
  divert more water in existing facilities.

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Case Study Emerald Lake
48
Colorado Wilderness
49
Emerald Lake

• Second largest natural lake in Colorado.
• Over 10, 000 feet in elevation.
• Completely within the Weminuche Wilderness.

50
Emerald Lake

• An irrigation district is proposing to build a
  dam and reservoir on Emerald Lake.
• Must show
• authorization to occupy NFS land
• right of access
• water right

51
The Wilderness Act and Reservoirs

• (4) Water resources, reservoirs, and other
  facilities grazing. Within wilderness areas in
  the national forests designated by this chapter,
  (1) the President may, within a specific area and
  in accordance with such regulations as he may
  deem desirable, authorize prospecting for water
  resources, the establishment and maintenance of
  reservoirs, water-conservation works, power
  projects, transmission lines, and other
  facilities needed in the public interest,
  including the road construction and maintenance
  essential to development and use thereof, upon
  his determination that such use or uses in the
  specific area will better serve the interests of
  the United States and the people thereof than
  will its denial... 16 USC 1133 (4)(a).

52
Emerald Lake

• Small dam constructed in 1895-96 maintained
  until 1930s.
• Dam fell into disrepair abandoned .
• If authorization were found to be valid under the
  1891 Act, FS may have to provide access as the
  Secretary deems adequate to secure to the owner
  the reasonable use and enjoyment of its right of
  way.

53
What are the Scientists Doing in Wilderness Areas?
54
What are the Scientists Doing in Wilderness Areas?

• Looking at long term changes in wilderness lake
  chemistry
• Monitor ozone at high elevation in Colorado near
  wildernesses.
• Examining spatial variability in wilderness lake
  chemistry
• Water chemistry of high elevation Colorado
  wilderness lakes
• Robert C. Musselman and William L. Slauson,
  Biogeochemistry 71 387414, 2004.

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What Can Wilderness Staff Do?
57
The Need for Field Data

• Although there are reams of conclusive science on
  the whether of global warmingit is definitely
  occurringtheres very little precise information
  on when, and where, and what will happen
  next.Such science is scarceAnd though theres
  been vast observational research on the effects
  of global warming, theres not much
  experiment-derived knowledge about what a warmer
  planet will do to particular habitats
• Unnatural Preservation, Missoula Independent ,
  May 15 2008

58
Importance of Field Data

• Field observations are most valuable from
  wilderness rangers that have made these
  observations for many years, or perhaps they can
  talk to old-timers on the trails who might have
  observations on these points.
• Take notes and photographs.

59
Monitor Flows

• Some mountain streams stop flowing mid-late
  summer when snowmelt ceases, and how early in the
  season this happens is important.
• Write down and photograph any observations on
  changes in baseline flow (lowest flow of the
  year, usually Sept).

60
Monitor Snowmelt

• Researchers believe that snowmelt is beginning
  sooner and happening more quickly.
• Field observations on when snowmelt begins and
  ends would be useful.

61
Monitor Snowfields

• Researchers believe that some snowfields that
  have not been melted out completely for decades
  may now be melting.
• Look for minimum size of permanent snowfields and
  keep records including photographs from year to
  year.

62
Monitor Lake Ice-Out and Freeze Up

• Identification and documentation of the date of
  ice-out and freeze up of wilderness lakes is also
  important.
• A 15-20 year record of these dates is extremely
  valuable.

63
Help the Researchers in the Field

• Collect water samples of selected wilderness
  lakes for long term monitoring of water chemistry
  of these lakes.
• Monitor ozone at high elevation in Colorado near
  wildernesses.

64
Conclusion

• Climate change is ongoing and is likely to affect
  water in wilderness.
• Given the likelihood of decreased water
  availability as time progresses wilderness staff
  needs to
• Monitor changes in ecological conditions through
  field visits.
• Assist in researchers conducting studies
  concerning effects of climate change.

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