RURAL HOUSEHOLDS AND DROUGHT IN THE SAHEL REGION OF WEST AFRICA: VULNERABILITY AND EFFECTIVE MITIGATION MEASURES.

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RURAL HOUSEHOLDS AND DROUGHT IN THE SAHEL REGION
OF WEST AFRICA VULNERABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
MITIGATION MEASURES.
An AIACC Funded Project (AF 92)
Principal Investigator Dr. A. A. Adepetu, CERHR,
University of Jos, Nigeria Mali Country
Coordinator Dr. Abou Berthe, Institut dEconomie
Rurale, Mali
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Study Area

• A transition between the southern margin of the
  Sahara desert and the savanna regions to the
  south.
• A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with
  a few shrubs and trees, that receives a mean
  annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm
• A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from
  south to north, with an increase in inter-annual
  and spatial variability.

• A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic
  culture from the north mingles with the
  traditional cultures of the south.
• North-south stratification of social systems,
  northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism,
  southerly cultures largely practice sedentary
  agriculture.

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Aim of Study
To identify vulnerable groups and determine the
factors that shape their vulnerability and
adaptive capacities in the face of climate
change.
Focus of Study
Sustainable Livelihood in Selected Rural
Communities in Nigeria and Mali. Places can
only be ascribed a vulnerability ranking in the
context of the people who occupy them
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Why Sustainable Livelihood?

• Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective
  on drought vulnerability results in a
  fundamental shift in focus away from the resource
  itself to people, the impact of drought on their
  livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.
• Will ensure that projects tackling drought
  mitigation and adaptation become problem-led
  rather than discipline-led.
• Will lead to a greater understanding of the
  multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability.
  Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon
  related to a human value system.

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Project Framework
Key Climatic Variables
Selection of Study Sites
IPCC AIACC
Non Climatic Variables
Adaptation Strategies
Scenarios
Capacity Building
Stakeholders
Vulnerability Model
Risk Assessment
Sensitivity Analysis
Coping Threshold
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Major Publication
Determinants of Household Vulnerability and
Adaptation to Drought in the Sahel
Other Possible Publications Local knowledge and
perception of droughts Vulnerability pathways
who escapes and who remains Gender differences in
drought vulnerability in the Sahel Spatial
Dynamics of vulnerability using GIS
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Data Collection

• Types of Data
• Climatic
• Socioeconomic
• Environmental/Ecological
• Sources of Data
• Secondary Sources
• Participatory Rural Appraisal
• Questionnaire Survey

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Key Analyses

• Define Current Vulnerability Using a
  combination of indicator approaches.

• Ecosystem indicators i.e., agro-ecological zones
  climatic variables including rainfall patterns
  and major droughts soils status extent of
  desertification siltation rates vegetation
  types and cover, etc.
• Socio-economic indicators i.e., the nature of
  enterprises income sources and their
  distribution migration and other demographic
  factors employment human health indicators
  (e.g., mortality rates) animal health
  indicators rights, including grazing,
  land-tenure, tree tenure and land-use.
• Political indicators i.e., the nature of
  government the extent of centralization and
  decentralization of political authority (i.e.
  local self-government) system of procurement of
  goods and services including trade, and financial
  flows to communities.

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• Rank Households and individuals into
  vulnerability classes based on their degree of
  vulnerability.

• Variables considered to build the vulnerability
  indicators are labeled xj, the subscript j
  representing the household, and x the variable.
• First, we have to define x, the acceptable value
  for variable x obtained from the communities
  using ethnographic survey methods.
• Second, we define an indicator of success in
  obtaining, for variable x, the level defined for
  x.  
• Third, we compute cxj an index of failure in
  obtaining x for household j,

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• The Cx are normalized between 1 and 1 to
  allow comparison. To obtain this ideal range for
  the Cxj, each variable is normalized between its
  minimum and maximum value (for all households and
  subgroups).
• Put in other terms, one can interpret the Cxj
  as a distance between current conditions and the
  desired future condition defined by x.
• Households and groups will then be ranked in
  terms of their degree of vulnerability as highly
  vulnerable, vulnerable and not vulnerable.

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• Develop a vulnerability model based on a spatial
  ordered logit specification. The ordered logit
  model is used when the outcome variable is
  categorized on an ordinal scale as in our case.

This estimates the contributions of independent
variables to the probability of belonging to each
class of vulnerability as well as the probability
of a person belonging to each class of probability
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• Project future vulnerabilities using
  trajectories and transition probabilities

• The Markov chain framework allow investigators to
  answer different questions about the dynamics of
  systems
• If the system is in state , what are the
  chances that it will be in some state after
  some time ?
• How much time does the system will spend in each
  state, in average?
• Are there any possibilities, that while going
  from a state to, it transits through another
  state ?

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V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
Transitional Probability - Example
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• From model parameters and from stakeholder
  analysis, evaluate adaptation options.
• Empirical and Qualitative models of Adaptation

Fertilizer use
Vulnerability
Access to resources
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Issues to Incorporate from Workshop

• Strong Stakeholder Involvement
• Use of GIS in Vulnerability analyses and mapping
• Autonomous and Planned Adaptation

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Indicators of Livelihood Vulnerabilities

• Ecosystem indicators i.e., agro-ecological zones
  climatic variables including rainfall patterns
  and major droughts soils status extent of
  desertification siltation rates vegetation
  types and cover, etc.
• Socio-economic indicators i.e., the nature of
  enterprises income sources and their
  distribution migration and other demographic
  factors employment human health indicators
  (e.g., mortality rates) animal health
  indicators rights, including grazing,
  land-tenure, tree tenure and land-use.
• Political indicators i.e., the nature of
  government the extent of centralization and
  decentralization of political authority (i.e.
  local self-government) system of procurement of
  goods and services including trade, and financial
  flows to communities.

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Selection of Study Sites

• To be done using Participatory Approaches
  involving sample criteria
• multiple vulnerability (ecological, political,
  economic, social, etc.)
• a community that is representative of communities
  in arid and semi-arid lands, for example,
  population density relative to resource base and
  socio-economic variation
• communities that have experienced significant
  internal and external changes in the recent past
  (10 - 15 years) and have adapted.

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Adaptive Capacity

• Ecosystem
• biomass, species and water availability and
  access
• (Biomass availability is a function of herd
  species composition, i.e. mix of cattle, sheep,
  and goats. Is herd mix a survival strategy? Is
  the strategy sustainable? What about the
  composition of human diet as an indication of
  ecosystem stress?)
• indicator species
• vegetative cover - note seasonal variations
• water quality and availability as indicators of
  ecosystem health

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• Socio-economic
• infrastructure, credit, labor
• incidence of animal disease
• commodity markets - links to foreign markets,
  procurement, zoning and other restrictions