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Update on Pandemic Threat

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Avian Influenza. Illness in birds. Domestic and wild (migratory) ... Avian Influenza. Humans rarely can get infected/ill: ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Update on Pandemic Threat


1
Update on Pandemic Threat
  • Cort Lohff, MD, MPH
  • State Epidemiologist

2
Present Threats
  • The introduction of the H5N1 virus (avian
    influenza virus bird flu) into North America
  • An influenza pandemic

3
Avian Influenza
  • Illness in birds
  • Domestic and wild (migratory)
  • Usually with different strains of the virus than
    what are found in humans
  • High and low-pathogenic strains

4
Avian Influenza
  • Humans rarely can get infected/ill
  • Risk associated with close contact to infected
    birds or their contaminated environments
  • H5N1 one example

5
H5N1 Update
  • 333 human cases/204 deaths (October 31, 2007)
  • 12 countries
  • Almost all cases had close contact with infected
    poultry or contaminated environments

6
H5N1 Update
  • Human infections continue to be rare despite
  • Increasingly wide geographic range
  • High number of human exposures to infected birds
    or their contaminated environments
  • Suggests the virus has not adapted itself to be
    easily transmitted to humans

7
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8
How Might H5N1 Enter the U.S.?
  • Major risk pathways
  • Illegal movement of poultry
  • Illegal movement of birds, pets
  • Lower risk pathways
  • Migratory birds
  • Ill humans

9
Pandemic - Definition
  • Global disease outbreak
  • For an influenza pandemic to occur
  • A new type of the influenza virus must emerge
  • Most or all of the population susceptible
  • Virus easily spread person to person
  • Widespread illness and death
  • Note the first two conditions are met with H5N1

10
20th Century Pandemics
  • 1918 Spanish Flu
  • 20-100 million deaths worldwide
  • 500,000 U.S.
  • 1957 Asian Flu
  • 1968 Hong Kong Flu

11
Potential Impacts
  • Simultaneous and sustained impact across U.S. and
    globally
  • Unlike other emergencies
  • Disruptions in essential services
  • Up to 40 workforce out

12
Potential Impacts
  • Shortages of vaccine and antiviral medications
  • Overwhelming number of ill people, demand for
    health care resources, and deaths
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