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Title: Trends and opportunities for dairy in foodservice IDFA, Las Vegas March 2006


1
Trends and opportunities for dairy in
foodserviceIDFA, Las Vegas March 2006
  • Presented by Amanda Archibald, RD
  • Mintel International

2
Todays presentation
  • Trends impacting the broader menu
  • Ethnic impact
  • Customization options
  • Marketing claims with impact
  • Trending and opportunities for dairy in
    foodservice
  • Cheese
  • Butter
  • Yogurt
  • Cream
  • Milk
  • Ice-cream
  • Children and the menu opportunity

3
Ethnicity is defining the future of dining
Includes American Indian, native Hawaiian and
other Pacific Islander, and people of multiple
races
Source Mintels American Lifestyles Report, 2004
4
U.S. Foreign-born population
Source Mintels American Lifestyles Report, 2004
5
Hispanic population drives restaurant sales
  • Hispanic Population Expenditures for Food Away
    from home
  • 1997-2002

Source Restaurant Business Oct. 2004
Source Restaurant Business, Oct 2004
6
Growth on menu by cuisine type 2005
7
Asian Cuisine
Asian Style Operators in Restaurant
Institutions Top 400 Rankings Chains U.S.
Average Unit Volume 3.7 million (burgers 1.1
million avg)
Avg. unit volume 1.0 million
Pei Wei ranked 2 in fast casual sales growth for
2004
Source Nations Restaurant News/Brandweek
(adapted)
8
The Cheesecake Factory
The large menu featuring 14 cuisine type makes it
easy to find something for everyone
  • 14 cuisine types
  • 188 menu items

9
The Cheesecake Factory success strategy
  • The first restaurant brand to reach revenues of
    1 billion with less than 100 restaurants
  • Average earnings growth rate 20. 2005 sales
    estimates1.2 billion

10
Customization - Build-a-Meal
  • Restaurants are making it easier for the customer
    to choose multiple menu items for one price.
  • Build-a-Meal
  • 3 Course Combos
  • Ethnic Theme Meal Combinations
  • Participating Restaurants
  • T.G.I. Fridays
  • Applebees
  • Chilis

11
3-Course Combo Menu Highlights
Guilt Free Options
Indulgent Options
  • Appetizer
  • Zen Chicken Potstickers
  • (grilled)
  • Atkins Green Salad
  • Entrée
  • Bruschetta Tilapia
  • Atkins Key West Shrimp
  • Dessert
  • Atkins New York Cheesecake
  • Beverage
  • Ultimate Mango Berry Margarita
  • Appetizer
  • Chipotle Queso Dip Chips
  • Potstickers (pan-fried)
  • Entrée
  • Cheesy Bacon Cheeseburger
  • Jack Daniels Pulled Pork Sandwich
  • Dessert
  • Cinnabon Cheesecake
  • Beverage
  • Espresso Martini

12
Customization Cold Stone Creamery
  • If you let them build it, they will come
  • Growth from 74 stores in 1999 to 1000 in 2005,
    with an additional 1000 franchise agreements
    awarded
  • Average unit volume of 405,000
  • 2004 system-wide sales grew 86 over 2003

13
Marketing claims with impact - natural and organic
Menu Items Featuring Natural or Organic
Ingredients
300
250
200
Natural
Menu Items
150
Organic
100
50
0
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
14
Marketing claims with impact - natural and QSR
  • Burgerville OR, WA
  • Burger buns, cheese and beef from Northwest
    companies
  • Seasonal menu featuring locally grown ingredients
  • Good Times Burger
  • Burgers made with all natural Coleman beef
  • Arbys
  • 100 all natural chicken in all chicken menu
    items.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill
  • Largest purchaser of naturally raised pork in the
    US.
  • 2004 revenues 470 million and 44 growth
  • Projected 100 unit growth 2006. Avg sales 1.3
    million/unit

15
The Specialty Foods Shopper
Base 1,526 adults aged 18 and older
  • In the past 6 months, have you purchased any
    natural foods?
  • In the past 6 months, have you purchased any
    organic foods?

Source The NASFT State of the Industry Report -
The Consumer - US - June 2005 - The Specialty
Food Consumer/Mintel
16
Why Natural Organic Choices?
  • When it comes to food products, consumers are
    growing more concerned with the integrity of the
    food supply, seeking out products that are grown
    and processed safely and are safe to eat. Many
    consumers believe that turning to natural and
    organic foods provides a safety net.

Mintel Organic Food BeveragesU.S., consumer
intelligence, August 2004
17
The specialty consumer is most likely to buy
  • From mainstream stores
  • Coffee/tea
  • Cheese
  • Chocolate
  • From specialty food stores
  • Coffee/tea
  • Chocolate
  • Cheese

Source The NASFT State of the Industry Report -
The Consumer - US - June 2005 - The Specialty
Food Consumer/Mintel
18
Marketing claims with impact - fresh
Growth of Fresh
7200
7000
6800
6600
menu items
6400
6200
6000
5800
5600
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Family/Midscale is the clear leader in menuing
fresh items Family/midscale 10, 929 Casual
7,486 Upscale 4,452 QSR 1,953 Fast Casual
1,802
19
Leading ingredients in new menu introductions
20
Paninis storm ahead in the hot sandwich category
Changes in U.S. Hot Sandwich Sales 2004-2005
Source FreshLook Marketing Group LLC/National
Provisioners Meat Deli retailer (adapted)
Figures represent52 weeks ending 5/29/05
21
The days of basic white or wheat may be over
Source Mintels Menu Insights
22
Cheese on the menu
23
Most popular menu items featuring cheese
24
Growth in specialty cheese segment
  • Source Dairy Foods, Jan 2005

25
Cheese plates and growth in artisan cheeses
  • With assorted fruits in season, toasted nuts and
    warm fig bread. Cheese - Holly Springs, Bermuda
    Triangle, Pleasant Ridge, Great Hill
  • (Hawthorne Lane)
  • Cheese and Fruit Platter  Fruits in season,
    toasted nuts and warm fig and grain bread nut.
    St. Agur, Kaltbach, Lingot , St Andre
  • (Hawthorne Lane)
  • Selection from the Cheese Tray  soft goat,
    Gruyere, Parmesan, Oregon Blue cheese. served
    with fig jam, pear
  • (Beacon Bar Grill)

26
Cheese Course changing with the season
  • Selections from Aqua/upscale Q 4 2005
  • Ardrahan - Washed-rind, cow's milk, fruity, clean
    acidity, pungent rind. Produced in County Cork,
    Ireland
  • Tarentaise - Organic raw cow's milk aged five
    months. Produced by Thisle Hill Farm, Vermont
  • Clisson - Pasteurized goat's milk washed with
    Sauternes. Produced in Bordeaux, France
  • Panache D'Aramits - Pasteurized Sheep's milk,
    dense texture, smooth and nutty. Produced in
    Aquitaine, France

27
The Cheese Course changing with the season
  • Selections from Aqua/upscale Q 1 2006
  • Pierce Point - Pasteurized organic cow's milk,
    soft, bloomy, topped in herbs. Produced in Point
    Reyes, Northern California
  • St. Vrain - Pasteurized cow and goat's milk,
    creamy center. Produced in Longmont, Colorado
  • Fiorito - Pasteurized goat's milk, semi-firm.
    Produced in Piedmont, Italy
  • Roncal - Raw Sheep's milk, firm, and elastic.
    Produced in Navarro, Spain

28
Leading flavors in new menu items 05-06
29
Smoked flavor rises on menu
30
But smoked cheese declines on menu
31
Cream cheese on the menu
32
Trending with cream cheese
  • 2005 growth in cream cheese in sweet offerings
  • Carrot cake
  • Cherry Supreme Pie, Carmel Chocolate Cream Pie
  • Bob Evans/midscale
  • Cream cheese crème brulée
  • Magnolias Restaurant/upscale

33
Mascarpone shows a savory flair with new menu
introductions
  • Spinach Artichoke Dip  Creamy mascarpone,
    mozzarella, parmesan, fresh spinach, artichokes
    and crispy pepperoni, served with grilled garlic
    bread Johnny Carinos/midscale
  • Spring Vegetable Tart "A la Mode"  Savory Pie
    Crust, Warm Baby Spring Vegetables, Wild
    Mushrooms, Caramelized Onion, Mascarpone, Goat
    Cheese Ice Cream, Micro Greens, Pistachio
    Vinaigrette Viognier/upscale
  • Risotto with smoked chicken, leeks, fresh thyme
    and Mascarpone cheese - Cicada/upscale
  • BUT Tiramisu remains the most frequently menued
    item featuring mascarpone cheese

34
Ricotta ramps up ravioli in upscale
  • Butternut Squash Ravioli  Homemade ricotta
    cheese and butternut squash ravioli served with a
    light "burro and salvia" sauce Primavera
  • Cardoon and fresh ricotta ravioli  with fennel,
    walnuts, grapes and verjus - March Restaurant
  • Ricotta Leek Ravioli  Black pepper pasta, baby
    squash lemon verbena nage Anzu
  • Braised fennel and ricotta ravioli in black
    truffle vegetable broth - Viognier

35
Growth in menued items featuring goat milk
36
Menued items featuring goat milk by dining type
37
Leading uses of goat cheese on menu
38
Innovative uses of goat milk
  • Cheesecake
  • Chevre cheesecake with whiskey spiked Medjool
    dates 
  • Rialto/upscale
  • Capriole Farms Goat Cheesecake 
  • Made with goats milk cheese and a Walnut crust
    with compotes of black mission and Calimyrna
    figs, Black walnut pralines and caramel
  • The English Grill/upscale
  • Ricotta
  • Goat ricotta gelato, mission figs poached in red
    wine candied walnuts
  • Otto Pizzeria/casual

39
Trends in butter - butter sauces
40
Butter sauce flavoring
41
Use of butter sauce by dining type
42
Butter sauce pairings
  • Seafood dominates pairings with butter sauce
  • Lemon butter sauces is most frequently menued
  • Pastas feature a variety of butter sauce options
  • Garlic, garlic and herb, roasted garlic, white
    wine
  • Chicken offers butter sauce options
  • Basil lemon butter
  • Roasted garlic
  • Steak butter sauce pairings
  • Garlic, herb, Gorgonzola, bleu cheese, basil

43
Butter versus margarine
  • 116 margarine mentions versus 11,000 butter
  • Margarine offered as a brand Promise or
    Trans-fat free
  • Margarine most frequently paired with potatoes,
    vegetables or bread
  • Butter most frequently paired with seafood or
    beef (steak)
  • Butter flavor pairings include garlic,
    gorgonzola, lemon (pepper), herb, herb varietals
    (rosemary, tarragon, cilantro, parsley)

44
Yogurt use by cuisine type
  • Greek cuisine has shown growth trend in 2005
  • IRI 2005 sales increase for yogurt6.5/unit
    sales 8 (through first 3 quarters 2005)

Source Dairy Foods, Dec 30, 2005
45
Yogurt rising as a sauce
  • Baja Fish Taco  Beer battered cod, mixed cheese,
    red cabbage, roma tomato, yogurt sauce, cilantro
  • K38 Baja Grill/casual
  • Falafel Salmon  with a chick pea crust served on
    hummus and cucumber yogurt sauce with a choice of
    one side
  • Legal Seafoods/casual
  • Crispy Skin Wild King Salmon  Chilled Israeli
    couscous and spring vegetable pilaf tarragon
    yogurt sauce and tomato-fennel-galangal relish
  • Blue Ginger/upscale
  • Tandoori Wings  Indian spiced chicken wings baked
    and served with lemon yogurt sauce
  • Green Mill/midscale

46
Yogurt salad and dressing
  • Gingered Organic Breast of Chicken Paillard 
    -grilled and topped with cumin scented carrot,
    honey and yogurt salad dressing, mint essence
  • - Rattlesnake Club/upscale
  • Lobster Salad with Citrus, avocado, sumac and
    yogurt dressing 
  • Gary Danko/upscale

47
Yogurt and soup
  • Spicy Moroccan Roasted Eggplant Soup  with minted
    yogurt, roasted olives and almonds
  • Magnolia Grill/upscale
  • Leek, Parsnip, and Ginger Soup  Leek and parsnip
    cooked with ginger and vegetable stock pureed and
    finished with yogurt
  • 34 New Street/midscale
  • Smooth carrot soup with mint, yogurt and dukkah
  • Rialto/upscale
  • Elderflower Consommé  with summer fruits and
    frozen lemon yogurt parfait
  • Chimney Park Bistro/upscale

48
Opportunities with yogurt revitalize the parfait
  • Most look alike, taste alike and are alike
  • Revitalizing the parfait
  • Yogurt parfait  with ginger and mango, milk
    chocolate mousse
  • Café Boulud/upscale
  • Not yogurt based but flavor concepts translate
    to yogurt
  • Coconut Tapioca Parfait  Old fashioned coconut
    tapioca pudding layered with mango mousse,
    finished with raspberry sorbet Ola Miami/upscale
  • Orange Cream Berry Parfait  - locally harvested
    berries, layered with orange cream flavored
    silken tofu and our granola to bring you a
    dessert you'd never guess was dairy-free Casa
    Nueva/casual

49
Cream on the menu
50
Pairing cream with the menu
51
Milk vs other
  • Top 5 kids drinks in restaurants (ages 6-12)
  • CSD 36.6
  • Milk 6.8
  • Non carbonated soft drinks 6.5
  • Juice 5.4
  • Water 4.5
  • Source NPD Group Oct 2005/NRN Jan 2, 06

52
Milk vs other
  • Todays adolescents tend to choose bottled
    water, fruit juice, tap water and milk before
    they choose soft drinks
  • Source Teen Health Survey 2005 BuzzBack Market
    Research/Beverage Industry July 4 2005

53
Milk and the meal occasion
  • 40 milk ordered in QSR is for adult consumption
  • 53 teens and 61 adults prefer it for breakfast
  • Teens and women prefer milk at the breakfast meal
    occasion
  • Teens like milk as a mid-afternoon snack
  • Source RI, October1, 2005

54
Milk in other ways
  • Non-dairy milk accompanies changes in consumer
    demand and ethnic cuisine
  • Non-dairy alternative beverages not prevalent on
    menu
  • Summer Berry Medley  fresh and candied, almond
    milk swirl
  • Aqua/upscale
  • Grilled Red Curry Shrimp  Lobster-Thai curry,
    coconut milk and lime, basmati rice
  • Evans Street Station
  • Tangerine and Coconut Sorbets - with mint and
    lime coconut milk soup
  • Janos/upscale

55
Ice-cream paradigm shifts
  • Savory ice cream
  • White pepper
  • Goat cheese ice cream - served with Summer Berry
    Gazpacho and balsamic dressed berries
  • Unique flavors
  • Apricot carmel
  • Butterscotch pecan
  • Macadamia nut brittle ice cream and rhum flamed
    bananas
  • Spicy squash ice cream and Warm Bourbon Sauce
  • Matching flavors
  • Pairing of fruit tarts with same flavored
    ice-cream cream (rhubarb tart rhubarb
    ice-cream)

56
Leading menu items on kids menus
  • Chicken fingers
  • Grilled cheese sandwich
  • Burger
  • Macaroni and cheese
  • Cheeseburger
  • Hot dog
  • Corn dog
  • Cheese pizza
  • Pizza
  • Spaghetti

57
Most popular kids menu preparation techniques
Base 350 chains / 150 independents / 50 Top
Chefs. Search criteria Menu Type/CourseChild/Top
10 Ingredient Prep
58
Similarities in Childrens Menus Across Dining
Types
Top 5 childrens menu offerings
Dining type
Base 350 chains / 150 independents / 50 Top
Chefs. Search criteria Menu Type/CourseChild/Men
u Item Name/Top 5
59
What is the opportunity with kids?
  • We can try to improve diets all we want by
    making school lunches more nutritious and by
    getting vending machines out of the hallways, but
    that gets us only partway there. For example, New
    York City has just banned whole milk in its
    public schoolsbut how can we be sure students
    will drink healthier milk just because it's
    offered to them, let alone understand what
    lifelong nourishment is all about
  • Alice Waters, New York Times Feb 24 2006

60
The Jamba Juice concept
  • Founded in 1990 and opened its 500th store in
    2005
  • Operating in 26 states
  • 2005 sales showed a 21 gain over 2004
  • 345 million from 532 units
  • 80 new store locations opened in 2005 and 80 more
    planned in 2006 to include operations in airports

61
Why Jamba works
  • Health-centric concept combining
  • Convenience
  • Portability
  • Customization
  • Healthful ingredients representing current and
    cutting edge ideas that resonate with todays
    consumer
  • Examples
  • The enlightened smoothie low cal, low sugar
  • Tea infusions featuring vogue passion-mango and
    pomegranate pear flavors
  • Hot and cold menu

62
Cheeburger Cheeburger
  • Ranked the burger restaurant by Entrepreneur
    magazine 2003
  • A Zillion Shake Flavors
  • Raspberry Truffle, Blackberry Cobbler and
    Chocolate Amaretto are just a few of the newest
    shake flavors at Cheeburger .
  • The least number of flavors any Cheeburger
    Cheeburger offers is 40

63
Can Jamba and Cheeburger work for kids?
  • Convenience
  • Portability
  • Healthful options
  • The opportunity to experiment and
  • Expand healthful flavorful horizons
  • Benchmark a flavor-varied palette
  • Get kids interested in expanding food and flavor
    horizons and thoroughly enjoy eating good food
    for its intrinsic goodness

64
Why Jamba-style concepts will appeal to kids
  • A drink that contains 5 servings of fruits and
    vegetables
  • A smoothie where you could get all the nutrients
    you need, that tastes good, helps you stay in
    shape, and is good for you
  • A breakfast shake.not necessarily for dieters.
    Something to balance you off in the morning
  • - Comments from teens about drinks that would
    appeal

SourceBuzzBack Market Research 2005/Beverage
Industry, July 2005
65
Caution - kids and the push back
  • Kid-friendly touch screen ordering systems
    (Sheetz)
  • point to a photo if they are too young to read
    a menu
  • This is mine and they made this for me
  • It might be a little gross for us as parents,
    but kids dont want mom and dad eating their
    food.
  • Kids have to go in a store and search around for
    everything they want.
  • make kids a customer for life

66
Take home points
  • Understand the ethnic opportunity and where dairy
    fits
  • Positioning around claims that are resonating
    with consumers is critical
  • fresh, natural, organic, artisan
  • Paradigm shifts with dairy ingredients are taking
    place both in applications and flavor
    combinations
  • Children remain the largest opportunity on menu

67
  • Contact Amanda Archibald
  • amandaarchibald_at_earthlink.net
  • Direct 301.865.4607
  • Mintel Group International Ltd 312.932.0400
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