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Critical Citizens and Political Participation in Latin America

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What kinds of citizens enrich and sustain democracy? Research Questions ... A/D: 'Democracy may have problems but it is still the best form of government' ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Critical Citizens and Political Participation in Latin America


1
Critical Citizens and Political Participation in
Latin America
  • Ryan Carlin
  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

2
Overarching Concern
  • What kinds of citizens enrich and sustain
    democracy?

3
Research Questions
  • How can we identify democratic citizens?
  • Does democratic support (or lack thereof)
    influence political participation? If so, how?

4
Critical Citizens
  • Support for Democracy
  • Distrust in Political Institutions
  • Political Participation

Norris 1999, Pharr Putnam 2000 Cain, Norris
2002, Dalton Scarrow 2003, Dalton 2004
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Outline
  • New Measurement Approach
  • Analyses
  • Cluster Analysis Profiles of Democratic Support
  • Model Protest Activism
  • Model Electoral Participation
  • Theoretical Contributions
  • Future Payoffs

8
Case Selection Chile
  • Like Europe
  • Like Latin America
  • Quality of Democracy high for Latin America, low
    for Europe

9
Profiles of Democratic Support
  • Procedural Democracy, Polyarchy Dahl 1971
  • Objects of Support
  • Democratic Governance
  • Political Rights Procedures
  • Civil Liberties
  • Orientations of Support
  • Democratic vs. Authoritarian
  • Democratic vs. Contingent

10
Data
  • AmericasBarometer 2006 (LAPOP)
  • Highest quality national sample (n 1517)
  • Rich Multiple Measures

11
Operationalization
12
Democratic vs. Authoritarian
  • Democratic Governance
  • A/D Democracy may have problems but it is still
    the best form of government
  • Political Rights Procedures a.91
  • A/D Do you think people who speak poorly of the
    government should be able to (1) vote, (2) run
    for office, (3) express political views in
    peaceful protests, (4) voice political views on
    TV
  • Civil Liberties a.84
  • A/D Would you support a law?
  • (1) banning all public protests,
  • (2) prohibiting dissenters from associating
  • (3) censoring (a) TV programs, (b) library
    books, (c) media criticizing the government

13
Democratic vs. Contingent
  • Democratic Governance a.81
  • A/D Would a military coup be justified under
    high levels of Unemployment, social protests,
    crime, inflation, corruption?
  • Political Rights Procedures a.86
  • Would support a government that?
  • ½ unemployment but suspends elections
  • ½ crime but suspends elections
  • ½ unemployment but disregards congress
    judiciary
  • ½ crime but disregards congress judiciary
  • Civil Liberties
  • (a) Our president must have the necessary power
    to act in the national interest
  • (b) Our presidents power must be limited so as
    not to put our liberties at risk

14
Profiles of Democratic Support
  • Cluster Analysis classify data on multiple
    dimensions
  • Agglomerative Hierarchical CA, Wards Method
  • Max similarity within, max dissimilarity between
    clusters
  • ANOVA minimizes SS difference any 2 (potential)
    clusters
  • 5-cluster solution
  • Validity checks

Squared Euclidean distance(x,y)
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Results
  • Cluster means (s.d.s) across
  • 3 objects
  • Democratic vs. Authoritarian Orientations
  • Democratic vs. Contingent Orientations
  • Coding
  • Higher scores more democratic
  • Standardized, mean 0
  • Contingent civil liberties 0/1

17
Liberals
18
Hyper-Presidentials
19
Delegatives
20
Instrumentals
21
Authoritarians
22
Research Questions
  • How do we identify democratic citizens?
  • How does democratic support (or lack thereof)
    influence political participation?

23
Political Participation
  • Citizen voice Hirschman 1970
  • Protest Activism
  • Social Accountability Smulovitz Peruzotti 2000
    watch-dog role
  • Electoral Participation
  • Vertical Accountability ODonnell 1999
  • throw the rascals out

24
Institutional Trust
  • Independent Variable
  • To what extent do you have confianza in
    political parties?
  • confianza trust confidence
  • Coded 1 Nada to 7 Mucha

25
Model Protest Activism
  • Base Model Norris 1999
  • Ordered Logit
  • DV Protest Activism
  • (3) Frequent participation in last year
  • (2) Infrequent participation in last year
  • (1) Participation ever
  • (0) Participation never
  • IVs Party Trust, Support Profile Dummies,
    Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
    Dummies)
  • Controls Education, income, woman, married, age
    children, interpersonal trust, political
    interest, Left-Right, civic participation

26
Protest Activism
Liberals
Hyper-Presidentials
27
Protest Activism
Liberals
Instrumentals
28
Regression Results Protest
29
Model Electoral Participation
  • Base Model Carlin 2006
  • Multinomial Logit
  • DV Electoral Participation
  • (base) Voted for a Candidate
  • (2) Not Registered to VoteReported
  • (3) Abstained
  • (4) Cast Blank/Null Ballot
  • IVs Party Trust, Support Profile Dummies,
    Interactions (Party TrustSupport Profile
    Dummies)
  • Controls Education, income, woman, married, age
    cohorts, children, interpersonal trust, political
    interest, Left-Right, civic participation

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Electoral Participation
Liberals
Delegatives
32
Regression Results Voting
33
Theoretical Contributions
  • Substantive Democratic Support Conditional
    effect on Political Participation
  • Liberal Support Party Distrust Protest
  • Hyper-Presidential Instrumental Support
  • Party Trust Protest
  • Liberal Support Party Trust Vote
  • Delegative Support Party Distrust Vote
  • Methodological Profiles of Democratic Support
  • Hypothesis Generating Case Study

34
Future Payoff
  • Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Quality
  • Micro-Macro linkages Democratic Stability

35
Thank you
36
Implications
  • Implications for Quality of Democracy
  • Electoral reform, Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
  • Issues Preferences Development Welfare state
  • Bulwark against candidate-centered politics

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Socialization
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Citizens Democracy
  • Psychopathology and Politics Lasswell 1930
  • Political Man Lipset 1961
  • The American Voter Campbell et al. 1961, 1980
  • The Civic Culture Almond Verba 1963
  • The Crisis of Democracy Crozier, Huntington
    Watanuki 1975
  • Political Action Study Barnes Kaase 1979
  • Making Democracy Work Putnam 1993
  • Beliefs in Government Kaase Newton 1995
  • Modernization Postmodernization Inglehart 1997

44
Case Selection Chile
  • Pinochets 1980 Constitution
  • modern and protected democracy
  • demobilize, de-polarize, neoliberalism
  • Authoritarian enclaves
  • Binomial Majoritarian Electoral System (M2)
  • 1 seat for each of top-2 lists
  • Representation, cleavage
  • Voluntary registration, Compulsory voting

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Measurement
  • Single survey items the d-word
  • Vacuous conceptions of democracy
  • Social desirability
  • Contested conceptions of democracy
  • Conflicting values norms
  • Uni-dimensional scales of survey items
  • Compound problems
  • Multidimensional concept
  • Drop d-word, focus on democratic values

48
Measurement
  • Advantages of Definition
  • Combats contested vacuous conceptions
  • Embraces conflicting values norms
  • Matches indicators at regime level (FH)
  • Distinguishes outright conditional support
  • Disadvantages of Definition
  • Democracy essentially contested Gallie 1959
  • More relevant conceptualization?
  • Indifference

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Insignificant Means
Measures Tukey Fishers LSD
51
Liberal Support
  • Clearly prefer democratic governance
  • Most unwavering support for political rights
  • Champion checking presidential power to preserve
    civil liberties
  • 16.5 of respondents, smallest cluster

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Hyper-Presidential Support
  • Prefer democratic governance (highest)
  • Score democratically on political rights
  • But would accept President acting in national
    interest at expense of civil liberties
  • 17.3 of respondents

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Delegative Support
  • Little respect for democratic governance,
    political rights, civil liberties
  • Delegate power to president to act in national
    interest at expense of individual liberties
  • Neither pro- nor anti-military intervention
  • 27.4 of respondents, largest category

56
Instrumental Support
  • Democracy not necessarily the best form of
    government
  • Support status quo political rights/procedures
    civil liberties
  • Military intervention justifiable (closer to min.
    than mean)
  • Waver on granting President more power
  • 17.1 of respondents

57
Instrumental Support
58
Authoritarian Support
  • Weak rejection of democracy
  • Support limiting political rights/procedures
    civil liberties
  • Hold no contingencies
  • Authoritarian logic different under democracy
  • Maintain voting rights
  • Restrict presidential power
  • 21.8 of respondents

59
Authoritarian Support
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Regression Results Protest
  • Operationalization
  • Political PartiesReported
  • Congress
  • Political Institutions index a.86
  • Political Parties, Congress, National Government,
    Municipal Government, Supreme Court, Civil
    Service
  • Distrust in parties drives protest among
    liberals
  • No consistent relationship among other profiles
  • No consistent relationship among common measures
    of democratic support

62
Parallel Regression Assumption
  • Proportional odds assumption
  • A change in IV has same effect on the odds of
    answering each of the ordered categories (m) of
    the DV (Frequent, Infrequent, Ever, Never)
  • Wald test Brant 1990
  • Overall test that ßms are equal
  • Individual test that ßms are equal for IVs

63
Brant Test
64
Regression Results Voting
  • Distrust in parties drives democrats away from
    electoral politics
  • No consistent relationship among other profiles
  • No consistent relationship among common measures
    of democratic support

65
Trust Distrust in Parties
  • Domain of trust Representation
  • Trust Citizen As belief that political parties
    B1n will represent As interests X1n
  • Distrust Citizen As belief that political
    parties B1n will not represent As interests
    X1n
  • GSS-style measure captures lack of trust

Cleary Stokes 2006
66
Party Trust Participation Delegative (N/S)
67
Party Trust Protest Activism Authoritarian
(z1.67)
68
Regression Results Protest
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Regression Results Voting
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Linzian Support for Democracy
  • With which of the following phrases do you most
    agree?
  • (a) Democracy is always the best form of
    government
  • (b) In certain circumstances, an Authoritarian
    government may be preferable to a democratic one
  • (c) It doesnt make any difference to me
  • 61 agree with (a)

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What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change? Participate in protest
movements and demand change directly
Latinobarómetro 2006, n 20,234
76
What is the most effective way you can influence
how things change? Vote for a party that defends
my position Latinobarómetro 2006, n 20,234
77
Democracy creates conditions so people like me
can prosper by way of my own efforts
AgreeStrong Agree Latinobarómetro 2006, n
20,234
78
How democratic is this country? Latinobarómetro
2006, n 20,234
79
How would you evaluate the job that the national
congress is doing? Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006, n 20,234
80
How would you evaluate the job that the
political parties are doing? Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006, n 20,234
81
How would you evaluate the job that the
judiciary is doing? Good Very Good
Latinobarómetro 2006, n 20,234
82
Inter-Correlation Reliability
p .001, p .01
83
Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
84
Robustness ChecksAlternative Linkages
85
Polyarchy
  • Control over government policy decisions is
    constitutionally vested in elected officials
  • Elected officials chosen in frequent fair
    election in which coercion is uncommon
  • All adults have rights to vote run for office
  • Right to expression on political matters without
    fear of severe punishment
  • Right to seek alternative information sources
    must exist and be protected by law
  • Right to form relatively independent associations
    or organizations, including independent political
    parties and interest groups

Dahl 1971
86
Measurement
  • Cluster Analysis Exploratory Factor Analysis
  • Similarities
  • Exploratory
  • Insight into data structure
  • Cannot confirm a priori defined data structure
  • Differences
  • FA assume continuous underlying dimensions
  • CA assume categorical underlying dimensions
  • FAs linearity obscures meaningful combinations
  • Alternative linkages for robustness, face valid

87
Quality of Democracy
  • We consider a quality democracy to be one that
    provides its citizens a high degree of freedom,
    political equality, and popular control over
    public policies and policy makers through the
    legitimate and lawful functioning of stable
    institutions.
  • Diamond Morlino 2005, xi

88
Distrusting Hyper-Presidential Quote
  • Las cosas se van a poner graves en Chile a la
    larga si la Concertación o el presidente de turno
    no da un golpe fuerte presidencial y termina con
    estas amarras perversas. La derecha política que
    representa un 40 por ciento, con suerte, en el
    Parlamento está sobre representada. Esa es la
    tranca por la que no se pueden hacer los cambios
    que el país quiere, requiere y exige. Estamos
    viendo protestas, huelgas y cada vez el problema
    social se va a ir agravando, en la medida que no
    se le dé solución a esto.

Roberto Thieme, 9-10-07 www.terra.cl
89
Delegative Quote
  • Since the days of the Conquest we Chileans have
    been a subjugated race. And culturally speaking,
    frankly, you get used to it! We Chileans are a
    people who respond to strictness! (Somos los
    chilenos gente de rigor!) We need order and rules
    to keep us in check. Sometimes it is necessary
    for a few people to suffer so that a country can
    move forward and not live in fear. Thanks to
    Pinochet, today I can ride the subway without
    worrying that some extremist revolutionary is
    going to plant a bomb and kill me.

Carlos, 50 yrs, Las Condes
90
Citizen Participation Initiated from above
  • 1980 Constitution
  • Separates political rights civil liberties from
    social rights
  • Individualistic, no class actions suspicious of
    collective rights action
  • Aylwin
  • National agencies for women, indigenous,
    environment
  • Decentralization

Rindefjäll 2005
91
Citizen Participation Initiated from above
  • Lagos 2001 IADB funding (15 million) Program
    for Strengthening partnerships between civil
    society and the state
  • Promote citizen participation in public admin
  • Stimulate civil society
  • Rights-based language from consumers
    beneficiaries to citizens users
  • Vague Increase quality of democracy, i.e.
    accountability, deepening rights

92
Citizen Participation Initiated from above
  • Citizen Council for the Strengthening of Civil
    Society
  • Elaborate proposals to strengthen civil society
    promote citizen participation
  • Restricted role of Citizen Council consultation
    not decision-making
  • Lacked legitimacy b/c could not address all ideas
    and concerns pre-determined spaces
  • Bordered on encroachment of autonomy

93
Citizen Participation Initiated from above
  • Citizen Participation Law 2004
  • inform, discuss and consult leaders and
    representatives from civil society organizations
    from all over the country with regard to the
    legislative initiatives elaborated by the
    government (DOS 2003)
  • Capacity building of core groups, which in turn
    capacitated other smaller groups
  • 6000 leaders from 5000 groups
  • 5 dimensions legal changes on freedoms of
    association establish fund to strengthen
    public interest organizations legal framework
    for voluntary work changes in wording in legal
    norms

94
Protest Activism Full Model w/Interactions
95
Protest Activism Liberal Interaction
96
Protest Activism Linz Interaction
97
Protest Activism Churchill Interaction
98
Electoral Participation Full Model w/Interactions
99
Electoral Participation Linz Democrat Interaction
100
Electoral Participation Churchill Democrat
Interaction
101
Implications
  • What if Distrusting Liberals
  • (a) maintain protest pressure
  • (b) enter the electorate ?
  • Electoral reform, Moral Cleavage Hagopian 2004
  • Issues Preferences
  • Development
  • Welfare state
  • Bulwark against candidate-centered politics

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Cited in Kurtz 2004. Source International Labor
Organization (strikes), Morley, Machado
Pettinato (economic liberalization)
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Q-Sort, 36 Items
Disagree Agree
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
3 4 5
113
Q-Sorts Liberal
114
Q-Sorts Delegative
115
Q-Sorts Instrumental
116
Q-Sorts Authoritarian
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