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Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied Palestinian Territory oPt

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Rights to the small territory of pre-1948 Palestine has been disputed for generations ... Trends in Israel and Palestine: Prospects and Policy Implications. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied Palestinian Territory oPt


1
Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied
Palestinian Territory (oPt)
  • Allan G. Hill PhD
  • Andelot Professor of Demography
  • Harvard School of Public Health

2
Main points
  • Everywhere there are close links between
    population and politics but these reach extreme
    levels in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian
    Territory (oPt)
  • Special features of the demography of the oPt
    include a) relative high fertility and hence
    growth rates and b) high density and thus
    propensities to migrate high
  • Intense competition for resources in crowded,
    rapidly growing communities exacerbated by
    absence of a strong state and institutions able
    to referee attempts by sub-groups to seize
    power/resources by force

3
The area of Israel the oPt is very small
4
Politics and population
  • Rights to the small territory of pre-1948
    Palestine has been disputed for generations
  • Israels growth and security has been built on
    immigration, never more rapid than in the 1990s
  • Longer term displacement of the Palestinian
    population well established but now more recently
    replaced by enclosure

5
Immigration to Israel was very high in 1990-91,
sustaining growth in many development towns
putting pressure on resources for all
Source Aliya and Klita Dept, Jewish Agency for
Israel Ministry of Immigration Absorption.
6
Population in Thousands
Source S DellaPergola American Jewish Year
Book, 103, 2003, 3-68 and Statistical Abstract of
Palestine no. 6
7
Source Statistical Abstract of Palestine 2005
8
Population density in the oPt is already much
higher than elsewhere in the region
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
9
Mortality levels in the oPt are good as measured
by the under 5 mortality rate
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
10
Fertility trends and projections for the oPt are
higher than neighboring Arab countries
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
11
The percentage of the population under age 15 is
second only to Yemen
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
12
Balkanisation of the oPt prevents development
13
Bethlehem and Jerusalem cut off from each other
by the Wall, new settlement in background
14
(No Transcript)
15
Gaza Strip Shrinking Resources
  • Environment
  • 50 land habitable
  • 38.5 agricultural
  • Security zone 17
  • Primary Water Source
  • Coastal aquifer wasted in next 10 years
  • Net annual deficit 31 million m3
  • Three wastewater treatment plants
  • Two functioning partly
  • 70-80 domestic wastewater discharged into
    environment untreated
  • Projected wastewater to increase fourfold between
    by 2025

16
Gaza Strip Increasing pressure on employment
and poverty
  • 159,000 new jobs required by 2010
  • Assuming current labor force participation rate
    36.5
  • Household poverty increasing
  • 75 (2001) 79 (2006)
  • Definition Below the poverty line based on
  • reported income taking into consideration family
    size
  • Unemployment increasing
  • 17 (1999) 36 (2006)
  • ILO Definition

17
Special Challenges for Gaza Strip
  • Lack of clarity of the residual status of the
    Gaza Strip disputed territory, foreign
    territory, entity, occupied territory,
    treated as international border by Israeli
    domestic law
  • Question of the status of the Oslo agreements and
    its impact on the unity of the Gaza Strip and
    West Bank
  • Lack of clarity within international donor
    community and humanitarian organizations (efforts
    by international community to increase passage of
    goods and people through Rafah Crossing and Karni
    Crossing)
  • Proliferation of agreements and coordination
    mechanisms
  • Lack of clear legal framework for governance,
    internal security, donor development schemes,
    trade and foreign relations
  • Absence of clarity of the responsibilities of the
    international community for the welfare of the
    population of Gaza

18
The Population Politics Framework
  • Constant deterioration
  • Human security undermined further by population
    pressure
  • Key rules disputed, consistent policies lacking
  • Legitimacy of authority contested
  • Constant low-level violence
  • Competing frames of reference
  • Multiplicity and simultaneity of different
    initiatives ambitions
  • Obstruction by local, regional, and international
    actors
  • Breakdown of conflict resolution efforts
  • Paralysis of local policy practice and
    initiatives
  • Self-imposed constraints on international and
    multilateral action
  • Denial of the socio-economic impact of
    demographic challenges

19
Conclusions and recommendations
  • Given past growth, even with a sudden drop in
    fertility, rapid rates of natural increase for
    years to come
  • Immigration to Israel and possible return
    migration of Palestinian exiles only adds to
    these pressures
  • Closure and other barriers to emigration and
    migration exacerbate already dire situation
  • No amount of development assistance can create
    development without addressing basic human
    security issues and normal pre-conditions for
    development
  • Absence of clear boundaries for both Israel and
    Palestine with communication between them
    produces instability
  • State monopoly of power the missing essential
    precursor for development

20

Some useful sources
  • Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict
    Research, Harvard University www.hpcr.org
  • UN Office for the Co-Ordination of Humanitarian
    Affairs www.ochaopt.org
  • AG Hill, CJ Clark, I Lubbad, C Bruderlein. Hope
    and despair over health in Gaza.
    BMJ  2006333845-846 (21 October)
  • S DellaPergola. Demographic Trends in Israel and
    Palestine Prospects and Policy Implications.
    American Jewish Year Book, 103, 2003, 3-68.
  • J Pederson, S Randall and M Khawaja. Growing
    fast the Palestinian population in the West Bank
    and Gaza Strip. Oslo FAFO, 2001.
  • Roy, Sara M. Failing peace Gaza and the
    Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Ann Arbor, MI
     Pluto, 2007.
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