Title: Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied Palestinian Territory oPt
1Demographic and Health Prospects in the Occupied
Palestinian Territory (oPt)
- Allan G. Hill PhD
- Andelot Professor of Demography
- Harvard School of Public Health
2Main points
- Everywhere there are close links between
population and politics but these reach extreme
levels in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian
Territory (oPt) - Special features of the demography of the oPt
include a) relative high fertility and hence
growth rates and b) high density and thus
propensities to migrate high - Intense competition for resources in crowded,
rapidly growing communities exacerbated by
absence of a strong state and institutions able
to referee attempts by sub-groups to seize
power/resources by force
3The area of Israel the oPt is very small
4Politics and population
- Rights to the small territory of pre-1948
Palestine has been disputed for generations - Israels growth and security has been built on
immigration, never more rapid than in the 1990s - Longer term displacement of the Palestinian
population well established but now more recently
replaced by enclosure
5Immigration to Israel was very high in 1990-91,
sustaining growth in many development towns
putting pressure on resources for all
Source Aliya and Klita Dept, Jewish Agency for
Israel Ministry of Immigration Absorption.
6Population in Thousands
Source S DellaPergola American Jewish Year
Book, 103, 2003, 3-68 and Statistical Abstract of
Palestine no. 6
7Source Statistical Abstract of Palestine 2005
8Population density in the oPt is already much
higher than elsewhere in the region
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
9Mortality levels in the oPt are good as measured
by the under 5 mortality rate
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
10Fertility trends and projections for the oPt are
higher than neighboring Arab countries
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
11The percentage of the population under age 15 is
second only to Yemen
Source UN World Population Prospects 2004
Revision
12Balkanisation of the oPt prevents development
13Bethlehem and Jerusalem cut off from each other
by the Wall, new settlement in background
14(No Transcript)
15Gaza Strip Shrinking Resources
- Environment
- 50 land habitable
- 38.5 agricultural
- Security zone 17
- Primary Water Source
- Coastal aquifer wasted in next 10 years
- Net annual deficit 31 million m3
- Three wastewater treatment plants
- Two functioning partly
- 70-80 domestic wastewater discharged into
environment untreated - Projected wastewater to increase fourfold between
by 2025
16Gaza Strip Increasing pressure on employment
and poverty
- 159,000 new jobs required by 2010
- Assuming current labor force participation rate
36.5 - Household poverty increasing
- 75 (2001) 79 (2006)
- Definition Below the poverty line based on
- reported income taking into consideration family
size - Unemployment increasing
- 17 (1999) 36 (2006)
- ILO Definition
17Special Challenges for Gaza Strip
- Lack of clarity of the residual status of the
Gaza Strip disputed territory, foreign
territory, entity, occupied territory,
treated as international border by Israeli
domestic law - Question of the status of the Oslo agreements and
its impact on the unity of the Gaza Strip and
West Bank - Lack of clarity within international donor
community and humanitarian organizations (efforts
by international community to increase passage of
goods and people through Rafah Crossing and Karni
Crossing) - Proliferation of agreements and coordination
mechanisms - Lack of clear legal framework for governance,
internal security, donor development schemes,
trade and foreign relations - Absence of clarity of the responsibilities of the
international community for the welfare of the
population of Gaza
18The Population Politics Framework
- Constant deterioration
- Human security undermined further by population
pressure - Key rules disputed, consistent policies lacking
- Legitimacy of authority contested
- Constant low-level violence
- Competing frames of reference
- Multiplicity and simultaneity of different
initiatives ambitions - Obstruction by local, regional, and international
actors - Breakdown of conflict resolution efforts
- Paralysis of local policy practice and
initiatives - Self-imposed constraints on international and
multilateral action - Denial of the socio-economic impact of
demographic challenges
19Conclusions and recommendations
- Given past growth, even with a sudden drop in
fertility, rapid rates of natural increase for
years to come - Immigration to Israel and possible return
migration of Palestinian exiles only adds to
these pressures - Closure and other barriers to emigration and
migration exacerbate already dire situation - No amount of development assistance can create
development without addressing basic human
security issues and normal pre-conditions for
development - Absence of clear boundaries for both Israel and
Palestine with communication between them
produces instability - State monopoly of power the missing essential
precursor for development
20Some useful sources
- Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict
Research, Harvard University www.hpcr.org - UN Office for the Co-Ordination of Humanitarian
Affairs www.ochaopt.org - AG Hill, CJ Clark, I Lubbad, C Bruderlein. Hope
and despair over health in Gaza.
BMJ 2006333845-846 (21 October) - S DellaPergola. Demographic Trends in Israel and
Palestine Prospects and Policy Implications.
American Jewish Year Book, 103, 2003, 3-68. - J Pederson, S Randall and M Khawaja. Growing
fast the Palestinian population in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip. Oslo FAFO, 2001. - Roy, Sara M. Failing peace Gaza and the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Ann Arbor, MI
Pluto, 2007.