Migration, Resilience and Global Change in the Coastal Zone POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMUNAL TRENDS

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Migration, Resilience and Global Change in the
Coastal ZonePOLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMUNAL
TRENDS1Nguyen Huu Ninh, 1Luong Quang Huy and
2Mick Kelly(1) Centre for Environment
Research, Education and Development(2) School of
Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
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Objectives

• To study the link between migration, resilience
  and global environmental change in the coastal
  zone of Vietnam.
• Resilience is the ability of the community to
  cope with, recover from and if necessary adapt to
  the impact of environmental stress.
• In particular, to analyze the effects on levels
  of vulnerability and resilience of doi moi -
  the process of economic renovation since the late
  1980s.
• We look at two aspects - the rapid development of
  aquaculture and the increase in spontaneous
  migration.
• Develop the possible future socio-economic
  scenario based on local sensitivity, resilience
  and overall vulnerability.
• Based on projects funded by the Netherlands
  Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical
  Research (WOTRO), and the MacArthur Foundation,
  United States.
• Executed by the Center for Environmental
  Research, Education and Development (CERED),
  Hanoi, Vietnam

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Case study

• Study site coastal district of the Red River
  Delta in the North of Vietnam - Giao Thuy
  district
• Data sources household surveys (56 hhs) of whole
  district in 1995 and 2000 to study trends over
  time and in-depth survey of one commune (171 hhs)
  - Giao An commune - in 2000. Covering income
  sources, household structure, migration aspects,
  etc.
• Interviews with local government and important
  stakeholders (district, commune committees, local
  organizations, etc).
• Secondary data archival district statistics on
  socio-economic conditions, etc.

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Giao Thuy district
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Why choose Giao Thuy?

• Giao Thuy is considered as a typical sample in
  the socio-economic assessments and analyses when
  global change events have been affecting the
  whole Southeast Asia region. With its own
  multifarious history in both natural conditions
  and socio-economics, Giao Thuy has become a
  priority in sample collection of the Red River
  Delta/ Global Change Programme.
• It has the following properties

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Giao Thuys properties

• Irrigation and flood prevention system was formed
  with a very complicated dike and channel system.
• It has experienced the basic renovations in
  administrative and institutional system and is
  playing an important role in economic reforms to
  be multi-sectoral economics from subsidy and
  bureaucracy system.
• Covering the first RAMSAR site in Vietnam with an
  area of 12,000 ha that includes the mudflat,
  Ngan, Lu and Xanh islands located in the altitude
  of 0-1.2 meters above the sea level.

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Giao Thuys properties (2)

• Having complicated socio-economic conditions with
  appearances of both Buddhism and Christian.
• The difference between the rich and the poor has
  been revealed increasingly and clearly in the
  last decade due to the development of major
  productions of aquaculture and breeding in the
  district.
• Trading activities of which the main products are
  foodstuff, food grain, agricultural, aquacultural
  and breeding materials take a considerable part
  in GDP of the district while handicraft and
  industry make up a small portion and are almost
  not developed in the region.

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Giao Thuy is one of the most sensitive areas in
the Red River Delta.

• The area is suffering from increasing impacts of
  human activities and natural disasters from
  upstream area and coastal zone.
• Degradations of soil, fresh water reserves,
  bio-diversity, yield of marine products and
  environmental quality in the recent time.
• It has been suffering from the impact of global
  change process of which climate-related disasters
  have been directly effecting on socio-economic
  development of the region.

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Aquaculture

• Aquacultural development - extensive and
  semi-intensive shrimp farming - has expanded
  rapidly during doi moi and represents a
  significant investment opportunity.
• Despite vulnerable nature of the coastal
  ecosystem and often unsustainable methods, the
  rewards can be considerable.
• We first look at the effects of aquacultural
  development on income inequality in the local
  community.
• Neil Adger and his colleagues at CERED/UEA have
  argued that aquaculture has increased inequality,
  damaging resilience by denying the poorer members
  of the community access to resources in the
  general sense (cf. Sen).

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Analyses of Inequality

• All analyses are based on general survey for the
  whole district conducted in 1995 and 2000 and an
  in-depth commune sample survey carried out in
  2000.
• Lorenz curves which show the distribution of
  cumulative income within the community
• Analyses of Gini coefficients - measures of
  departure between observed income distribution
  from equal distribution across the community -
  and contribution to inequality.

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Lorenz curves for measurement and decomposition
of inequality in Giao Thuy
Note Lorenz curves were drawn with basis of
total income of different decomposed communities.
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Decomposition of per-capita income inequality
decomposed by aquaculture and non-aquaculture
Note Aquaculture stands for the
households who involve to aquacultural
activities, in this case, they
are shrimp farming and oyster farming as
characteristics of the district.
Non-aquaculture is for the households who
neither involve to shrimp farming nor
oyster farming. () Income source contributes
more to inequality than share of income (-)
Income source contributes less to inequality than
share of income
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Decomposition of per-capita income inequality by
different components of income
Note Inequality effect() Income source
contributes more to inequality than share of
income(-) Income source contributes less to
inequality than share of income
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Aquaculture and migration

• Aquacultural development means the rich become
  richer and the poor become relatively poorer.
• The community on the whole does become richer
  because of aquaculture but the important point is
  who benefits?
• The trend toward inequality amplifies the
  pressure on poorer households caused by
  population growth / land limitation, the rising
  cost of living and other factors such as loss of
  jobs caused by agricultural mechanization.
• The response of many households is spontaneous
  migration, only possible since the start of doi
  moi.

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Spontaneous migration

• The doi moi process has increased benefits in
  urban areas. This has attracted rural laborers to
  the cities to work on various services.
• Spontaneous migrants in the district have been
  distributed evenly in terms of labor age (from 16
  to 35).
• There are two patterns of spontaneous migration
  (i) short distance/ term and (ii) long
  distance/term
• Spontaneous migrants are involving to different
  jobs, mostly service industry (rural-urban
  migration) and cultivation of industrial crops
  (rural-rural migration)

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Jobs of migrants are men in urban

• Construction workers for construction works,
  construction material production and exploitation
  (sand, gravel, brick, etc)
• Carpentry mainly employed by carpentry workshops
  and enterprises in the local region,
• Sawing miller supplying materials for carpentry
  workshops and enterprises in the local region and
  coastal provinces,
• Aquaculture working for shrimp ponds in the
  district or other coastal provinces
• Transportation (passenger bike, cyclo, tractor,
  etc) mainly concentrated in big urban areas, this
  is the most popular occupation of the migrant in
  Giao Thuy and
• Employees mostly concentrated in the local
  region and the neighbour districts, some went to
  big cities in the whole country serving in
  restaurants, hotels, etc.

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Jobs of young women in urban areas

• Waste collection and recycling that is mostly
  concentrated on the urban areas, working in
  interval time between crops
• Small trading centred on the province and the
  vicinity, marine products and consuming goods are
  the main products and as the men migrants,
• Employees for restaurants, hotels, barbers', etc.
  in the townships and cities in the north.

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Immediate effects of migration

• Changing gender roles - women more responsible to
  manage agricultural land.
• Some loss of skills in agricultural workforce.
• Weakening family structure because key members of
  the family are absent.
• Loss of social capital as members of community
  are absent.
• BUT increase remittance income.

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Labour force allocation in relation with
spontaneous migration
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Summary statistics of family membership, rice
cultivated land and income sources of decomposed
groups in the community.
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Amount and number of households in use of
remittance income
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Discussions on Migration and Resilience

• Remittance income from spontaneous migration is
  having complex and often opposing effects on the
  resilience of the poorer members of the
  community.
• It is limiting the loss of resilience caused by
  aquaculture development and other trends but it
  is not enhancing resilience by diversifying
  livelihoods in the local community - it is being
  invested in existing agricultural activities.
• Because of effects on gender roles, skills in the
  agricultural workforce, etc, it has negative
  effects on resilience.
• However, because migration livelihoods are less
  dependent on the environment, there is increased
  resilience to current environmental stress and
  long-term global environmental change compared to
  local livelihoods such as agriculture and
  fishing.
• It is important to separate out these different
  effects rather than simply saying migration or
  aquaculture is good or bad.

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Policy implications

• Policy intervention should support trends that
  increase resilience and counter trends that
  damage resilience and enhance vulnerability.
• Poverty reduction must be a priority to protect
  the disadvantaged.
• Creation of local employment is important - but
  profits from aquaculture are rarely invested in
  local community.
• The loss of common property resources such as the
  mangrove denies local people benefit from this
  resource.
• Some banks are now stopping loans for aquaculture
  because of the risks. This highlights the
  possible role of policy and regulation in
  steering investment towards activities that
  enhance resilience.
• Agricultural extension workers should address the
  change in gender roles and changing skills in the
  workforce caused by migration.

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From the past to the future

• Have been describing situation in recent past and
  focusing on trends over time - What of the
  future?
• Are changes in society likely to increase
  resiience and decrease vulnerability? Or the
  opposite? Will environmental stress increase or
  decrease?
• To address these questions,we are working on a
  scenario approach.

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• Thank you for your attention