10 Security Implications of Climate Change

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10 Security Implications of Climate Change
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Water and Food Scarcity cause instability and
loss of livelihoods forcing migration
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More Intense and Frequent Disasters create chaos
and instability
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Disease Vectors Expandcausing health disasters,
interrupt livelihoods, and can lead to chaos and
instability
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Sea Level Rise displaces millions of people,
forcing migration
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Mega-Project Mitigation and Adaptation
Developments cause chaos and conflict with
displaced people
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Efforts to build dams or irrigation projects to
address water shortages caused by climate change
are now leading to conflict with groups already
living on land used for these mega-projects.
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Access to Oilin Melting Northdrives new
international conflict
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Military Preparedness Hamperedby possibility of
multiple, severe storms and crises paired with
energy scarcity
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State Instability and Terrorismincrease as
Fragile States are incapable of responding to
climate crises
Climate change weakens political systems,
exacerbates resource scarcity causing food,
shelter and income shortages, and increases
migration. Failed states unable to provide
basic services can lead to turmoil, extremism,
and terrorism when governments do not have the
capacity to cope with large scale disasters.
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Instability is the chief threat to US national
security interests as defined by the Department
of Defense. Military experts identify climate
change as a threat multiplier for instability
in some of the most volatile regions of the
world. According to Admiral T. Joseph Lopez,
Climate change will provide the conditions that
will extend the war on terror.
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Mass Migrationsof people in search of new homes
and livelihoods leads to conflict in receiving
areas
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Rising sea levels could flood millions of people
each year, with millions more displaced by
flooding and drought.Migration can lead to
increased competition and conflict in receiving
regions.
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Global Antagonism and Warsover water, oil,
resource scarcity
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• While rich countries have historically been the
  chief consumers and polluters driving climate
  change, poor countries will suffer the worst
  consequences of it. Poor countries are at most
  risk from sea-level rise, increased droughts,
  floods and extreme weather. Some African and
  Latin American leaders call climate change an
  act of aggression by the rich against the poor
  and blame industrial countries for looming
  environmental disasters in their countries.
• Global antagonism over specific countries or
  corporations unwilling to limit their carbon
  emissions may also lead to conflict.

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Preparing for an Increase in Conflict and
Instability due to Climate Change

• Climate change demands greater prevention efforts
  to help people adapt locally to prevent mass
  migration and instability.
• Development is the foundation of security by
  fostering sustainable livelihoods that prevent
  conflicts over resources.
• Diplomacy to address deep-rooted conflict through
  negotiation and conflict resolution at all levels
  of society.
• Most Americans believe military defense should
  only be used as a last resort.

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Sustainable Development

• Development programs can help make communities
  more resilient to climate shocks.
• Good development will help communities adapt and
  mitigate the impacts of climate change.
• Sustainable development prevents instability,
  migration, humanitarian crises and the spread of
  terrorist ideologies.
• Development solutions will evolve from
  partnerships between local people and their
  technical and funding partners.

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Multi-Track Diplomacy Preparation

• Create vast infrastructure of people trained in
  principled negotiation to handle increased number
  of conflicts over environment
• Increase diplomatic efforts for multi-lateral
  engagement, cooperation, and tension reduction on
  common threats related to climate change.
• The Madrid Peace Process for the Middle East used
  water, migration, and other environmental issues
  to foster multilateral engagement between Israel
  and regional states.

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Defense Preparation

• Military officials recognize the danger of seeing
  DOD as the solution to the security implications
  of climate change. Because of chronic
  under-funding for State Department and USAID
  program, there is a risk of securitization and
  militarization of environmental challenges.
• The Department of Defense can urge for greater
  resources for the State Department, USAID, US
  Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection
  Agency and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  Administration so they can properly execute these
  climate change missions. Until they are
  resourced, DOD will have no choice but to
  assume these stability missions.