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Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Handson Training Workshop for LAC Asuncion, Paraguay, 1418,


1
Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training
Workshop for LACAsuncion, Paraguay, 14-18,
August, 2006
Integration of VA Analysis by Vute Wangwacharakul
2
Outline
  • Introduction
  • Integration of results
  • Cross sector and multi-sector integration
  • Setting priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation
  • Examples
  • Conclusions

3
Introduction
  • Commitments
  • Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should
    develop and publish their national
    communications.
  • Guidelines
  • Parties should communicate to the COP a general
    description of programs containing measures to
    facilitate adequate adaptation, etc. (decision
    17/CP.8)

4
Reporting Components
  • The following categories of impacts/vulnerability
    are expected to be reported agriculture,
    tourism, health, forests, water resources,
    infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions,
    ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries
    and the economy.

5
  • Para. 34 of the Guidelines
  • Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide
    information on their vulnerability to the impacts
    of, and their adaptation to, climate change in
    key vulnerable areas. Information should include
    key findings, and direct and indirect effects
    arising from climate change, allowing for an
    integrated analysis of the countrys
    vulnerability to climate change.

6
an integrated analysis
  • Two possible interpretations
  • Information provided in SNC should allow for
    communicating national vulnerability to climate
    change in an integrated manner
  • Integrated analysis of VA is encouraged,
    particularly in the key vulnerable areas
  • We emphasize the second one

7
Integrated Assessment
  • Integrated Assessment can be defined an
    interdisciplinary process of combining,
    interpreting and communicating knowledge from
    diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that
    the whole set cause-effect interactions of a
    problem can be evaluated.

8
Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation
  • Vulnerability is a function of the character,
    magnitude and rate of climate change and
    variation, to which a system is exposed, its
    sensitivity and its adaptive capacity Summary
    for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)
  • Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to
    adjust to climate change (including climate
    variability and extremes) to moderate potential
    damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to
    cope with the consequences Summary for Policy
    Makers (IPCC WG II

9
Why is Integration Important?
  • Impacts do not happen in isolation
  • Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
    affect another
  • Some sectors are affected directly and/or
    indirectly
  • Sector linkages could reduce the extent of the
    impacts of climate change
  • The issues addressed are dynamic in nature
  • Integration is necessary for ranking
    vulnerabilities and adaptations

10
Main Types of Integration of Results
  • Cross-sector integration
  • Link related sectors (I-V-A in selected sectors
    qualitative or quantitative)
  • Multi-sector integration (System approach
    quantitative)
  • Economy or system wide models
  • Integrated assessment models
  • Economy-wide models (mathematic or econometric
    models)

11
Some Integrated Assessment Models
  • IMAGE
  • ICLIPS
  • CLIMPACTS
  • MIASMA
  • AIM

12
Cross-sector models
  • CC - water resources - agriculture
  • CC - temperature - mosquitoes - health
  • CC - temperature - heat wave - health
  • CC - rainfall - flood/drought - agriculture etc.
  • mostly quantitative

13
Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop
water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
14
An Example
  • IAM in Cuba
  • Agriculture and water resources (considered
    demographic, technology, food consumption)
  • Potato yield would be dropped and worsen by water
    problem and population
  • Technology only marginally reduced the effects.
  • Changing sowing date could be good adaptation
    measure for maize

15
Multi-sector Integration Modeling
16
IMAGE Model
17
Regional/National Economic Models
  • Quantitative way to examine climate change market
    impacts throughout an economy
  • Problem with non-market impacts
  • Mostly macroeconomic models or general
    equilibrium models
  • Require much data
  • Complex and can be expensive
  • Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

18
An Example of a Regional Model
19
Asia Integrated Model
20
A More Simple Approach
  • Add up results sector by sector
  • Limited by what is known within sectors
  • Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
    points
  • Impacts may be measured with different metrics
  • Need to account for many sectors
  • Does not capture sectoral interactions

21
Estimates of Damages for India
22
Can Also Measure Number of People Affected
  • Millions at Risk study did this
  • Global burden of disease

23
Millions at Risk Study
24
At a Minimum
  • Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
    and possible direction of impacts
  • If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
    identify how change in water supply could affect
    agricultural production

25
Integration through Setting Priorities
  • Vulnerability
  • Adaptation

26
Prioritization of Vulnerabilities
  • It can be quite useful for
  • Focusing adaptation measures
  • Monitoring
  • Adaptation

27
Examples of Adaptation Integration
  • Caribbean (CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA)
  • Integration of adaptation into national policies
    dealing with risk management and into their
    Environment Impact Assessment procedures.
  • Mozambique (World Bank)
  • Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks
    into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction
  • Bangladesh (CARE-CIDA)
  • Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into
    sustainable development planning

28
Example of Adaptation Integration
  • China (ADB, World Bank)
  • helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions-
    government undertook integrated ecosystems
    management-house-level eco-farming integrated
    renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard
    cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand
    and providing forage.

29
Process is as Important as Outcome
  • This is an expression of values, not a purely
    analytic exercise
  • Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
  • The following are tools that can be useful in
    setting priorities
  • Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
    approach, the important thing is learning-by-doing

30
NAPA Process
31
Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
32
OECD Method
33
Ranking Adaptations
  • Screening
  • Multicriteria assessment
  • Benefit-cost analysis

34
Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
35
Multicriteria Assessment
36
Benefit-Cost Analysis
  • Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
    metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
  • Monetary values often used
  • Difficulty what to do about non-market benefits
    or uncertainties
  • Difficulty requires much data and analysis

37
BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
38
What to Use
39
Conclusions
  • Integration is important to at least identify
    related impacts
  • Analysis is desirable because there can be
    surprises
  • Integration can also be useful for examining
    total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities
  • It is interdisciplinary process

40
Conclusions
  • There should be involvement of local
    stakeholders, the private sector, individuals,
    the research community and different levels of
    government.
  • Awareness raising and capacity building also
    essential.
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