The Role of Science and Technology in Counter Terrorism

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The Role of Science and Technology in Counter
Terrorism

• Jay Davis
• National Security Fellow
• Center for Global Security Research
• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• DOE/OBES Workshop
• Gaithersburg, February 28, 2002

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My perspective on counter terrorism comes from
career experiences

• Having my own laboratory bombed when I was at
  Wisconsin
• A basic research career in nuclear physics and in
  managing basic research in the broad geosciences,
  toxicology, nutritional science and combustion
  research
• Applied experiences in arms control, the NEST
  program and as an inspector in Iraq
• Three years as the founding director of the
  Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a DoD combat
  support agency with counter terrorism as a major
  focus
• Thirty years as an organization builder and
  strategic planner

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Let me begin with the dilemmas of counter
terrorism

• There is no central ownership of this mission and
  it is almost no ones first mission
• The technological and the sociological quickly
  become combined
• One is seeking resources to invest against rare
  events with high consequences
• The ultimate customer is not one having great
  familiarity with the ST community

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What is the narrow role of science and technology
in national security?

• To assure that we have the weapons and knowledge
  to deter those with evil intent
• To assure that if war, terrorism or conflict
  come, our doctrine, people and equipment are
  superior to any
• To assure that we fight our battle, preferably
  one that the enemy does not expect, rather than
  their battle

Note that the social sciences play a large role
in these desires
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What is the broad role of science and technology
in national security?

• To assure that we can anticipate and cope with
  surprise in any discipline
• To assure that the American economy can compete
  on all levels and support the worlds best
  defense system
• in both people and equipment
• To explain honestly what is and is not possible
  in defense.

Basic scientists have a large role in these
matters
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How does DoD look at solving a problem?

• Is there a solution in doctrine, operations or in
  technology?
• Who will provide the logistics and training
  support for a twenty year system lifetime?
• How is the system, gadget or widget compatible
  with existing doctrine, operations or training?
• Can I get promoted if I sponsor this?

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Where in counter terrorism do ST have the most
leverage?

• Deterrence
• Detection
• Response
• Recovery
• Forensics and Attribution

Note that the first and last couple together --
and may offer our highest and most cost effective
opportunities
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What are the strengths of the basic ST community?

• Knowledge of the future of your fields
• particularly important in the post-nuclear and
  post-physics world
• Potentially higher credibility with the new
  funders and the general public
• Potentially lower operational burdens than the
  rules and inhibitions of the national security
  organizations that handle classified and/or
  controlled materials
• Cost, cost, cost

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What are the grand technical challenges in
counter terrorism?

• Forensics for attribution and deterrence
• Technologies for detection of agents and rapid
  diagnosis of infection or insult
• Integration of sparse and uncertain data into
  predictive models for event management
• this has enormous political importance
• Integrated models that span dispersion to
  morbidity and mortality
• for both low level and acute exposure
• for address-based triage
• Education on risk and risk tradeoff

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What are the critical tests of you and your ideas?

• Can you work as a subcontractor?
• Anything important will be a team activity -- you
  are an unlikely leader
• Who will deliver and sustain your technology in
  production and operation?
• A real government agency contribution could be to
  select the production operational contractors
• Does this product deliver incremental improvement
  in existing systems without excessive opportunity
  cost in their present configuration?
• Is the first responder willing to use this?

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What are the grand contributions you can make?

• Service in a mission-driven agency
• they need your perspectives and knowledge
• Support to the intelligence and security
  communities in predicting future threats
• and the capabilities to counter them
• Work in the international communities to
  establish norms of transparency and ethics
• and the penalties for failure in these
• Education and support of both the local and
  national communities in determining what is
  possible
• expectations management is vital

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You might ask yourself the following questions

• What new contexts do I need to master?
• Where or by what extrapolation does my currently
  funded work or capability contribute?
• What new relationships do I need?
• What are my responsibilities beyond the
  laboratory?

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Understand the political and operational
difficulties of counter terrorism

• This is no ones first job -- except for Governor
  Ridge
• Authority and resource needs are determined by
  the event
• an anathema for political systems
• The first responders are the most important
  players
• and are poorly coupled to our communities
• There will be no silver bullets
• either technical or political

However, I am optimistic because we as a nation
are now fully engaged with this topic