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Title: At the crossroads: The United States and Global Climate Change Presidential Climate Action Project W


1
At the crossroadsThe United States and Global
Climate ChangePresidential Climate Action
Project William Becker, Executive Director
2
What science is telling us
  • Global warming is real.
  • It is underway now.
  • It is caused mostly by human activities.
  • If allowed to go much farther, it will have
    disastrous consequences for our economy, health,
    security ecosystems.
  • We have the tools to prevent this.
  • We dont have much time.

3
How Far?
  • By 2015
  • Stabilize global
  • emissions (IPCC)
  • By 2020
  • Cut industrial nations
  • emissions 25-40 (Bali)
  • Cut 20-30 (EU)
  • Cut 30 (PCAP)
  • Cut to 1990 level (Obama/McCain)

4
How fast?
  • "If there's no action before 2012,
  • that's too late. What we do in
  • the next 2 to 3 years will
  • determine our future. This is the defining
  • moment. Rajendra Pachauri, IPCC
  • The next president and congress must define a
    course next year in which the United States
    exerts leadership commensurate with our
    responsibility for the present dangerous
    situation Dr. Jim Hansen, NASA

5
U.S. Moving in Wrong DirectionMcKinsey Company
2030 Reference Case
  • CO2e emissions increase 35
  • Carbon absorption declines 7
  • Carbon intensity
  • per capita emissions
  • improve
  • Growth factors
  • Population
  • Buildings appliances
  • More carbon-based power

6
World Moving in Wrong DirectionEnergy
Information Administration - 2007
7
Missed Opportunities
  • Presidents Science Advisory Panel
  • November 1965
  • By the year 2000 there will be about 25 more
    CO2 in the atmosphere than
  • at present. This will modify the
  • heat balance of the atmosphere
  • to such an extent that marked
  • changes in climate, not controllable
  • through local or even national
  • efforts, could occur.

8
Missed Opportunities

The earth's well-being is an issue important to
America...We recognize our responsibility and
will meet it -- at home, in our hemisphere, and
in the world - 2001

9
National Energy Policy
10
National Energy Policy
  • If were addicted to oil, why are we
  • subsidizing the drug?

11
Drill here, drill now?
  • We wont end our addiction by switching
    suppliers.

12
National Climate Policy
13
PCAP Poll
  • 66 want presidential climate action
  • 44 very important
  • 14 not at all important
  • 63 believe action is urgent
  • 41 want action immediately
  • 16 dont care
  • Strongest climate position?
  • 22 Obama
  • 21 Clinton
  • 8 McCain
  • 49 dont know

Online Poll Harris Interactive 2,092 likely
voters April 9-11, 2008
14
PCAP Mission
  • Provide the 44th President of the United States
    with a comprehensive plan to take bold action on
    climate change within 100 days.

15
Project Background
  • Location Wirth Chair, School of Public Affairs,
    University of Colorado Denver
  • Staff 3.5 FTE
  • Budget 2 million
  • Project period
  • Jan.1 07-Jan.31 09

16
Objectives
  • Set stage for federal action that is
  • Science-based
  • Transformative
  • Timely
  • Courageous
  • Build public mandate for boldness
  • Redefine whats politically possible
  • Chart reinvention of Federal Government
  • Do homework in advance of Inauguration
  • Help President create effective domestic program
    that allows U.S. to engage other nations with
    credibility

17
PCAP Advisory Committee
  • John Petersen, Arlington Institute
  • Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism Solutions
  • Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund
  • Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College
  • Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center
  • Larry Schweiger, President, National Wildlife
    Federation
  • Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife Federation
  • Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry
    Environmental Studies, Yale University
  • Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former NASA
    Administrator NREL Director
  • Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate Advisor,
    Colorado Governors Office
  • Ray Anderson, Founder CEO, Interface Inc.
  • Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA Administrator
  • Scott Bernstein, Center for Neighborhood
    Technologies
  • April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation
  • Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains Justice
  • Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save Energy
  • Boyd Gibbons, past president, Johnson Foundation
  • Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret)
  • Sheila Slocum Hollis, PartnerDuane Morris LLP
  • Van Jones, President Founder, Ella Baker Center
    for Human Rights

18
300 ideas/100 days
  • Economic Policy
  • Climate Policy
  • Energy Policy
  • National Security
  • Agriculture
  • Buildings
  • Mobility
  • Federal emissions
  • Natural resources
  • Ocean Ecology
  • Mitigation/adaptation
  • Public health/safety
  • International policy
  • Climate Leadership

Issued Dec. 4, 2007
19
Aggressive goals
  • Reduce federal emissions 30 by 2020, 80-90 by
    2050
  • Cut oil consumption in half by 2025
  • Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040
  • Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030
  • Reduce energy consumption 25 by 2020
  • Obtain 25 of electricity from renewables by 2025
  • Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20 by 2020, 50 by
    2050
  • De-carbonize federal subsidies
  • De-carbonize international aid trade
  • Form Organization of Petroleum Importing
    Countries (OPIC)
  • Make carbon visible in EISs, budget requests,
    consumer products

20
Doing the Homework
  • Analysis of Presidential authority
  • Boundaries
  • Responsibilities
  • Statutory basis
  • Whos Who in Climate Action
  • Climate Plum Book
  • Policy data base
  • Agency mission statements
  • White papers on key issues

21
Enhance national security
  • Cut oil consumption in half by 2020 offset all
    imports by 2040
  • Stop subsidizing carbon now
  • CAFE of 50 mpg by 2020 200 mpg by 2050
  • Create Organization of Petroleum Importing
    Countries (OPIC)
  • Avoid new security liabilities
  • LNG
  • Uranium

22
Unleash innovation
  • 1 billion in platinum carrot awards
  • 1 billion annually for State Energy Program
  • 2 billion annually in energy block grants
  • Redirect Rural Utility Service, etc., to spark
    rural renaissance
  • Promote deployment through small business
    development
  • Train 35,000 youth annually in green trades

23
Practice stewardship
  • Declare atmospheric commons
  • Cut GHG 30 below 1990 by 2020
  • Implement upstream cap auction
  • Regulate GHG under Clean Air Act
  • Make federal government carbon-neutral by 2050
  • Achieve zero-energy buildings by 2030
  • Cut VMT 20 by 2020 50 by 2050
  • Reduce energy demand 25 by 2020 50 by 2030
  • Obtain 25 of electricity from renewables by 2025

24
Prevent carbon lock-in
  • Ban construction of new coal plants without CCS
  • Disinvest in new high-carbon fuels
  • Liquid fuels from coal
  • Oil shale
  • Increase CAFÉ to 50mpg by 2020
  • Develop zero-carbon national model building code
    reward early adopters
  • Adaptive design
  • Zero net energy

25
Correct market signals
  • Price greenhouse gases
  • De-subsidize carbon
  • Create life-cycle, full-cost performance
    standards
  • Require utilities to disclose risks
  • Jump-start markets with government procurement

26
Maximize Energy Efficiency
  • Fix appliance efficiency standards
  • De-couple utility rates
  • Extend expand energy efficiency tax incentives
  • Ramp down mortgage interest deductions for
    MacMansions
  • Expand use of ESPCs

27
Deploy clean energy
  • Define clean to include life-cycle costs
  • Implement feed-in tariffs
  • Develop national smart grid
  • Expand distributed energy generation
  • Extend grids to stranded renewables
  • Redirect federal grant, loan loan guarantee
    programs to EERE projects
  • Triple RD, including energy storage
  • Extend PTC/ITC for 15 years

28
Fix incentives
  • Provide stable, long-term incentives
  • Make incentives big enough (5-10 of investment)
  • Provide privileged access to grid
  • Dont cap total amount of RE
  • Reduce transaction costs i.e., approval
    process, etc.
  • Reinforce market with government procurement

29
Address Equity
  • Launch national training for green jobs
  • Create Climate Enterprise Zones direct
    Empowerment Zone/Enterprise Community program to
    high-impact areas
  • Fund Weatherization Assistance Program at 2
    billion annually
  • Institute border adjustments for imports
  • Offer incentives for retooling carbon industries
  • Encourage oil companies to increase capital
    investment in renewables

30
Support adaptation
  • Use auction revenues and/or redirected subsidies
    to fund local adaptation efforts
  • Focus federal climate research on local, social,
    economic climate impacts
  • Improve intergovernmental communications on
    disaster response, public health, etc.
  • Develop national water management strategy
  • Remap hazard areas prevent development
  • Require resilient building designs
  • Rapidly reforest areas destroyed by fire/pests
  • Fold adaptation into infrastructure projects
  • Seek preemptive emergency authority from
    Congress

31
Lead internationally
  • Decarbonize international aid trade
  • Design complementarity into trading regime
  • Allow climate policy to trump trade in WTO
  • Count leakage in US emissions
  • Promote universal but differentiated commitments
    to GHG reductions
  • Retool Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
    Technology Development and Climate
  • Seek early Executive Agreement with China

32
Lead by example
  • Biggest energy consumer
  • 18 billion annually, or 1.5 of U.S. total
  • 500,000 buildings
  • 630,000 vehicles worldwide
  • 5 billion miles annually
  • 350 million gallons gasoline equivalent each year
  • 1.6 of national CO2 emissions
  • Purchasing power Indirect impacts triple direct
    impacts
  • World-class laboratories
  • 700 RD facilities
  • 100,000 scientists engineers

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, CO.
33
Candidates Climate Positions
  • We have many advantages in the fight against
    global warming, but time is not one of them.
  • I dont believe that climate change is just an
    issue thats convenient to bring up during a
    campaign. I believe its one of the greatest
    moral challenges of our time.

34
Candidates Climate Positions
  • Obama
  • Reduce emissions 80 below 1990 by 2050 with a
    cap and trade system with 100 auction of
    allowances
  • 25 national RPS by 2025
  • Invest 150B over 10 years in bringing clean
    energy to market.
  • Establish a national low carbon fuel standard
  • Improve energy efficiency 50 by 2030
  • Restore US leadership on climate
  • McCain
  • Reduce carbon 60 below 1990 by 2050 using a cap
    and trade system.
  • Develop an adaptation plan based on national and
    regional climate impact models.
  • Engage with the UN to develop an international
    agreement on climate.
  • Ensure rapid technology introduction - wants to
    develop programs that accelerate development of
    technologies across the valley of death.

35
Policy Changes in the Air
  • Carbon pricing
  • Disappearing subsidies for fossil fuels
  • National RPS/EEPS
  • Moratorium on conventional coal plants
  • Investment in smart grid
  • Carbon reporting risk disclosure
  • Nuclear power, with conditions
  • Pressure for climate-friendly regulation
  • Decoupling
  • Interconnection standards
  • Feed-In Tariffs
  • Net metering
  • Climate action plans
  • Statewide goals for renewables efficiency

36
Carbon Pricing
  • Carbon tax vs. cap-and-auction
  • Upstream vs. downstream
  • When can we expect a bill?
  • PCAPs recommended criteria
  • Transparent
  • Low administrative costs
  • 100 auction
  • Works with international efforts
  • Flexible
  • Equitable
  • Economy-wide
  • Reductions measured in
  • absolute tons
  • 30 cut by 2020 80 by 2050

37
Subsidy reform
  • Case against subsidies
  • They distort market signals while carbon pricing
    tries to correct them
  • Classic corporate welfare
  • Money needed elsewhere

38
Renewable Portfolio Standards
  • 10 by 2015, 25 by 2025 (Obama)
  • 100 in 10 years (Gore)
  • 30 by 2020,
  • 50 by 2050
  • (PCAP)
  • No specific goal
  • (McCain)

39
Potential role of renewables
Source American Solar Energy Society
40
Energy efficiency goals
  • Reduce consumption 15 below projected demand by
    2020 (Obama)
  • Cut 25 by 2020
  • Cut 50 by 2050
  • (PCAP)
  • No specifics (McCain)

41
Coal-fired generation
  • Ban new conventional
  • plants (Obama PCAP)
  • 151 proposed by 2007
  • 87 stopped by 2008
  • Clean coal technology
  • Count life-cycle CO2
  • Count environmental
  • damage
  • Continue research
  • but dont wait

42
Smart Grid
  • Outdated grid inhibiting wind/solar
  • Private investment underway
  • Texas invests 4.9 billion
  • Excel pilots in Boulder
  • T. Boone Pickens plan
  • Philip Anshutz plans
  • 3 billion, 900-mile line
  • Policies
  • Overcome balkanization
  • Reduce red tape (McCain)
  • Make major investment
  • (Obama)

43
Carbon reporting
  • Excel agrees to disclose risks to investors
  • Carbon pricing
  • Climate impacts (drought, etc.)
  • Lawsuits/court decisions
  • Legislation
  • Utility lobbies have read the writing on the
    wall Justin McCann, Standard Poors

Excel CEO Dick Kelly
44
Nuclear power
  • McCain 45 plants now, 100 long-term
  • Obama Solve storage, proliferation, safety
    problems
  • PCAP Same as Obama

45
Federal vs. State regulation
  • Provide incentives to states (Obama, McCain,
    PCAP)
  • PCAP 1 billion/year, divided among states that
  • Decouple rates
  • Map renewables extend grid
  • Promote distributed power co-generation
  • Create interconnection standards
  • Implement net metering
  • Use feed-in tariffs
  • Implement climate action plans
  • Establish RPSs

46
New Frames
  • You cant solve a problem by thinking the way
    you did when you created it.

47
Frame No.1
  • Politics is the art of compromise.
    Unfortunately, the atmosphere has stopped
    negotiating.

48
48
49
49
50
Changes in climate are already causing harm
Major floods per decade, 1950-2000
Theres a consistent 50-year upward trend in
every region except Oceania.
51
Harm is already occurring (continued)
Major wildfires by decade, 1950-2000
The trend has been sharply upward everywhere.
52
Harm is already occurring (continued) WHO
estimates climate change already causing 150,000
premature deaths/yr in 2000
53
Spaceship Earth is becoming Greenhouse Earth
54
Frame No. 2
  • Climate change is not an environmental issue. It
    involves
  • Economic stability
  • Energy security
  • Public health safety
  • Health care costs
  • Housing costs
  • Cost of government
  • National security

55
Frame No. 2, cont.
  • We wont fight climate change to save the
    environment. Well fight climate change to save
    prosperity.

Randy Udall, Founder Association for the Study of
Peak Oil
56
Frame No. 3
  • Theres a difference between problem solving and
    problem switching.

57
Frame No. 4
  • The abundance of a resource is not a mandate to
    consume it.

58
Frame No. 4, cont.
  • If cheap and plentiful are our criteria, choose
    the ultimate power plant sunlight.
  • Price 0.00
  • Supply 5 billion yrs
  • Delivery 8 minutes

Sun at X-ray wavelengths from Japans Yohkoh
Satellite
59
Frame No. 5
  • Smart technologies can only go so far
  • to accommodate stupid behavior.

Can 55,000 orbiting space-based mirrors, each 100
square meters, reflect sunlight to offset half
our growth in CO2?
60
Frame No. 6
  • Its time to
  • redefine
  • national
  • security.

61
Frame No. 6, cont.
A PV panel is as important as an M-16 rifle a
plug-in hybrid is as important as a tank.
A 21st Century Weapons System
62
Frame No. 6, cont.
21st Century Weapons System (deployed)
63
Frame No. 6, cont.
21st Century Air Force
64
Frame No. 7
  • Baby steps arent enough.

Incrementalism is innovations worst enemy. We
dont want continuous improvement, we want
radical change. Sam Walton
65
Frame No. 8
  • We suffer from the myth of separation.
  • Conservation and biology are not hobbies they
    are a survival practice.

Harvard Biologist Edward O. Wilson
66
Frame No. 8, cont.
Earth Rise Apollo 8, Christmas Eve 1968
67
Frame No. 9
  • We are the invasive species.

Clear-cutting in Washington State
68
Frame No. 9, cont.
  • We have learned to walk on the Moon

69
Frame No. 9, cont.
  • but we havent learned to walk on the Earth

70
Frame No. 9, cont.
  • Even on the Moon, we could not get along without
    a car.

71
Frame No. 10
  • If we insist on ruining the planet,
  • we have to stop calling ourselves
  • the most intelligent species

72
The 2008 Election
  • Americans can always be counted on to do the
    right thing...after they have exhausted all other
    possibilities. Sir Winston Churchill

(We now have exhausted all other possibilities.)
73
Wanted A Uniter
  • We need a little less Pluribus and a little more
    Unum. Ken Burns

74
bill.becker_at_cudenver.edu www.climateactionprojec
t.com
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