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Why Hybrid Vehicles?


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Title: Why Hybrid Vehicles?

Why Hybrid Vehicles?
  • If you want a CD or handout of this lecture
  • L. David Roper
  • Professor Emeritus of Physics
  • Virginia Polytechnic Inst. St. Univ.
  • roperld_at_vt.edu
  • http//arts.bev.net/roperldavid

http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10642724 http//www.hy
Why Hybrid Vehicles?
  • Emissions from vehicles is causing global warming
    and human sickness.
  • Oil extraction peaked in the U.S. in the early
  • Oil extraction is peaking for the world about
  • Natural gas extraction peaked in the U.S. in the
    late 1970s.
  • Natural gas extraction for the world will peak
    within a decade or two.
  • Hybrid vehicles produce much less emissions and
    use about 50 less fuel than the average new
    vehicle in the same class. (Partial-Zero
  • Plug-in Hybrid vehicles eventually will be
    charged at parking locations using renewable
    energy. They will use at least half as much fuel
    as do hybrids.

U.S. Oil Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as
1.5 times 2003 proven reserves.
Alaska increment
My birth.
It will mostly be gone when I am 100 years old.
Note the desperation jitter that occurs near an
extraction peak. U.S. oil discoveries peaked
about 1930.
Watch this grow in the future!
From International Energy Agency. ROW Rest of
the World. It is easy to see why the U.S. starts
wars for oil.
U. S. Oil Consumption and Imports
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is estimated
to contain 7x109 barrels of oil about one year's
supply for the U.S., a mere blip on Alaska
Alaska extraction peaked in 1988 about 10 years
after it started.
(No Transcript)
Natural Gas Facts
  • The main component is methane (CH4).
  • Natural Gas burns cleaner than gasoline or
    diesel. (I used butane/propane _at_ 0.17/gallon in
    my vehicle while in college 1954-8.)
  • Power companies prefer natural gas rather than
    coal as a fuel because it is cleaner burning and
    easier to transport by pipelines.
  • 33 of U.S. energy comes from natural gas.
  • 95 of nitrogen fertilizer used by U.S. farmers
    is made from natural gas. Increasingly being
    imported because of high prices for U.S. natural
  • Natural gas can be made from sewage and
    extracted from land fills. Future power stations
    need to be located at land fills and sewage
    plants and/or where the heat generated can be
    used (co-generation).

U.S. Natural Gas Extraction
This fit to the data gives future reserves as 5
times 2003 proven reserves.
About 15 of consumption imported, mostly from
Canada. Largest reserves are in Russia, Iran and
Note the desperation jitter.
World Oil Discoveries
http//www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html from
World Oil Extraction
Note the desperation jitter. World oil
discoveries peaked about 1965.
World Oil Extraction Per Capita
Barrels of crude oil per capita per year for the
World. The prediction is calculated using fits to
World petroleum extraction rates and population.
The fit is to the data after Jan 2002.
http//www.eia.doe.gov Daily prices
A World economic slump or collapse will probably
keep oil prices from rising this rapidly.
  • Eventually the price of oil will approach some
    asymptote after only the dregs are left to be
    extracted from the Earth and after humans quit
    burning it and recycle it instead.

The fit is to the data after Jan 1999.
http//www.eia.doe.gov Daily prices
What about Using Ethanol and/or Biodiesel for
Farmers must use biofuels to produce biofuels,
not petrofuels!
Closed carbon dioxide greenhouse gas cycle for
biofuels. Ethanol biodiesel are sustainable
forms of solar energy.
What if biodiesel were made from biowaste?
It takes 10 more energy to make gasoline than
gasoline yields as a fuel.
Current disagreement
Need to use ethanol to produce ethanol!
Ethanol as a Fuel
  • Two mixtures of gasoline and alcohol are
    available at a few fuel stations in the United
    States E1010 ethanol (101 octane) by volume
    and E8585 ethanol (105 octane) by volume.
    Unfortunately, World production of ethanol for
    fuel has not been increasing very rapidly.
  • All vehicles since the 1970s are capable of
    burning E10, but filling stations are not widely
  • One could create E10 at E85 filling stations by
    putting in about 8.35 of gasoline for each gallon
    of E85, as calculated from0.1 0.85e/(g
  • where e amount of E85
  • and g amount of gasoline.
  • A list of Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV) can be
    found at http//www.e85fuel.com/e85101/flexfuelveh
    icles.php .l
  • In 2006 General Motors made 6 FFVs, Daimler
    Chrysler made 5, Ford made 5 and Nissan made 1.
    General Motors and Ford Motor Company are
    promising more in the future
  • http//www.gm.com/company/gmability/environment/e
    85/index.html http//media.ford.com/newsroom/featu

The availability of E85 filling stations in 35
states in the United States. http//www.e85fuel.co
Virginia is way behind!
Flexible Fuel Vehicles can burn gasoline and E85
or diesel and biodiesel.
It costs 100 extra to make a vehicle FFV. Ford
plans to market a FFV version of the Escape
You get more than ethanol out of the process!
Brazil and Ethanolwww.khoslaventures.com/presenta
E85 or gasoline
Ethanol (Brazil) versus Gasoline
Prices(1980-gt2002 US/GigaJoule)
Ethanol in Brazil
Gasoline in Rotterdam
Brazil sugar-cane/ethanol learning curve Liters
of ethanol produced per hectare between 1975 to
2004 www.khoslaventures.com/presentations/Biofuel
Methanol Economy
  • New efficient ways to create methanol ( dimethyl
    ether) from methane 2CH4O2-gt2CH3OH
  • Create methanol from CO2 at power plants and from
  • Use methanol (dimethyl ether) as replacements for
    gasoline (diesel) and in fuel cells.
  • Use methanol as replacement for petroleum for
    hydrocarbon products.
  • Beyond Oil and Gas The Methanol Economy by Olah,
    Goeppert Prakash.

Problem Easier to capture CO2 at power plant
than from millions of vehicles!
Biodiesel Versus Diesel
  • Both are 15-20 more efficient fuels than
  • Diesel emits more pollutants than gasoline
    because each molecule has about 5 to 7 more
    methane units. They can be eliminated by
    catalytic converters, as they have been in German
  • See http//www.whpubs.com/epa.pdf
  • Biodiesel
  • Can be used in diesel engines.
  • Emits 50 less carbon monoxide and 78 less
    carbon dioxide than diesel.
  • Contains no sulfur.
  • Emits 75 less particulates than diesel.
  • Emits more nitrous oxides (smog) than diesel, but
    they can be removed by catalytic converters.
  • Ignites more readily in an engine but less
    readily in the atmosphere than does diesel.
  • Biodiesel may be the transport fuel of the
  • See Biodiesel by Greg Pahl and
    http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel and
  • http//hybridiesel.blogspot.com/2005/02/good-di

Biodiesel from Algae
  • Over 50 of algae mass is oil. Over 30 times more
    oil per area than other fuel plants (e.g.
  • Both fresh-water and salt-water algae.
  • Most efficient photoreceptors of all plants.
  • Liquid environment allows better access to carbon
    dioxide, nitrogen and minerals needed for growth.
  • Arid zones are ideal because of high solar
  • Locate beside power plants to absorb the carbon
    dioxide produced.
  • Commercial bioreactors for producing oil from
    algae are expected soon.

World Biodiesel Production
Curve is 73 growth. Growth is faster.
Biodiesel Growing A New Energy Economy by Greg
Comparison of Biodiesel to Petroleum
A 73 rate of growth in World biodiesel
production would equal World petroleum extraction
by about 2022.
Comparison of Vehicle Emissions for Renewable
versus Nonrenewable Sources of Energy
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Decreasing emissions
Final Goal for Vehicles!
What about Coal?
  • Can we extract and use coal for fuel without
    further destroying the environment?
  • Can we learn how to store the carbon to use it
    later to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice
    age? (More about this later.)
  • Can we get liquid and/or gas for transport fuel
    out of coal competitive to bioliquid and biogas?
  • Can we use coal to build the infrastructure for
    sustainable energy sources?
  • The U.S. national electric grid is 45 powered
    by coal. (Most of the rest is natural gas.)
  • Full Electric vehicles reduce greenhouse
    emissions by 67, even though much of their power
    is produced by coal power plants.
  • Most coal reserves are in Russia, China U.S.

Area between red curve and data area between
black and red curves.
Oil Extraction started.
In about 200 years we will be very low in coal
The red curve is a fit using known 2003
recoverable reserves. The drawn black curve is a
rough optimistic guess about the future.
World will have coal to use about 100 years
longer than the U.S.
Eventual amount extracted 100,248x106 Short
Tons http//www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0701.html
What about Uranium?
  • 15 of U.S. electrical energy is produced from
    nuclear power plants. In France it is 77.
  • We will probably run short within the next
  • http//afr.com/articles/2005/06/23/1119321845502.
  • Safe storage of radioactive waste for tens of
    thousands of years (well into the next Major Ice
    Age) is a major problem. See Deep Time by G.
  • Use of uranium for Weapons of Mass Destruction,
    for radioactive terrorism and in warheads of
    standard weapons (Used extensively in the Gulf
    War, Bosnia War, Kosovo War Bush Iraq War) are
    major problems. See
  • http//arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/Weapo

Fit to data using known reserves
Fit using 1.5 times reserves
Will run out sooner than coal.
Energy Returned over Energy Invested
Energy Source ERoEI (approximate)
Early U.S. oil 20
Early Middle East oil 30
Old oil fields 3-10
Hydropower 10
Coal 3-10
Nuclear 0-4
Wind 10-50
Solar 5-15
Geothermal 13
Tar sands 2
Biofuels lt 1? (current farming practices)
Environmental costs are not considered in
calculating these numbers!
http//www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html htt
A linear fit to the world energy consumption to
allow projection into the future.
Since World population is projected to start
leveling off, a constant increase in energy use
allows a modest increase in energy per capita.
The recent downturn in energy use per capita may
be why population growth is slowing.
Wind and Solar Energy Power History
39,300 MegaWatts in 2004 Growing at
25/year. Would take about 25 years to equal
total world power.
1,050 MegaWatts in 2004 Growing at
30/year. Would take about 35 years to equal
total world power.
World power used in 2004 15,000,000 MegaWatts
15 TeraWatts
Wind and photovoltaic power would have to grow at
70 per year to supply all world power in about
10 years!
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm, California
Exponential Fit to World Wind Power
A 25 rate of growth would make World wind power
equal to World total power by 2030. As the Earth
moves into the next Major Ice Age within a few
thousand years, winds will increase greatly, so
much more wind power will be available.
Exponential Fit to World Photovoltaic Power
A 31 rate of growth would make World
photovoltaic power equal to World total power by
2037. As the Earth moves into the next Major Ice
Age within a few thousand years, cloudiness will
decrease greatly, so more solar power may be
available even though insolation will be smaller.
  • We are like tenant farmers chopping down the
    fence around our house for fuel when we should be
    using nature's inexhaustible sources of energy -
    sun, wind and tide. I'd put my money on the sun
    and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope
    we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out
    before we tackle that.
  • -- Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)

2006 Federal Tax Credits for Home Solar Energy
  • Photovoltaic system or solar hot-water heater
    (not for swimming pool or hot tub).
  • Federal tax credit equal to 30 of the systems'
    cost, up to a credit of 2,000 per system.
  • Must be installed from Jan. 1, 2006 through Dec.
    31, 2007.
  • A two-kilowatt photovoltaic system that meets
    most of the needs of a highly energy-efficient
    home should cost 16,000 to 20,000 installed.
  • A five-kilowatt photovoltaic system for a more
    typical home should cost twice that it would
    eliminate the homes electricity bills.
  • The Bible The Solar Electric House by Steven
    J. Strong and William G. Scheller, 1993.
  • http//moneycentral.msn.com/content/Savinganddebt

Conservation as a Vehicle Fuel
  • Using proven technologies to improve vehicle
    efficiency can save half of projected 2025 use of
    oil in the U.S.
  • The other half might be replaced by biofuels and
    saved natural gas (more efficient use of
  • A 2025 vehicle fleet as efficient as the best
    hybrid vehicles now available would save
    one-sixth of projected oil use.
  • See http//www.oilendgame.com and Winning the Oil
    End Game by Amory Lovins.

Global Warming next
Last Major Ice Age (120,000 years long)
Last Interglacial
Homo sapiens evolved in Africa.
Current Interglacial (more about this later)
Previous Glacial Maximum Only Neanderthals in
Glacial Maximum
Last Neanderthal in Europe
(103 years)
  • Until about 10,000 years ago the earth was in a
    long ice age for about 120,000 years, with
    several extreme variations in temperature on a
    10,000 year time scale. (There have been eight
    of these ice ages in the last one million years.)
  • Human beings evolved into intelligent animals
    due to the extreme climate stresses.
  • Why has it been so uniformly warm over the last
    10,000 years? (Compare to the last interglacial
    130,000 years ago.)

North-Pole Summer Insolation
Insolation solar energy striking the top of
Earths atmosphere. It has been declining for the
last 11,000 years so why has the temperature
remained so high?
North-Pole summer insolation is an important
factor because accumulation of ice in the Arctic
region is crucial to the Major Ice Ages and
summer is when the ice can melt. Note that it
peaked 11,000 years ago and will be at a minimum
in about 500 years.
Neolithic Global Warming due to Carbon Dioxide
Caused by the onset of intensive
agriculture. (William F. Ruddiman, Scientific
American Mar 2005, p.34. Plows, Plagues and
Petroleum How Humans Took Control of Climate by
W. F. Ruddiman)
Neolithic Global Warming due to Methane Release
Caused by the onset of intensive rice farming in
Anthropogenic Global Warming History and Future
Future Global Warming
Normal Interglacial
Plunge into next ice Age.
Modern Global Warming
I call this Neolithic global warming.
Why is Global Warming Bad?
The fast rise in temperature may trigger the next
major ice sooner than it would otherwise occur,
due to switching off Atlantic Ocean currents.
Neolithic Global Warming
Future Global Warming
Plunge into ice Age.
Modern Global Warming
  • Rapid changes in temperature cause agriculture
    possibilities to switch from one area of the
    world to another. Thus, many people will die due
    to lack of food.
  • Rapid increases in temperature cause more severe
    weather to occur, such as hurricanes. Thus, many
    people will die (have already died!).
  • Rapid increases in temperature cause the glacial
    ice at the North and South Poles to melt, raising
    sea levels which will flood many major cities of
    the world.

Hurricane Power Dissipated (PDI) vsSea Surface
Temperature (SST) in North Atlantic
Obvious connection between high ocean surface
temperature and hurricane power.
1 http//zfacts.com/p/49.html
Global Warming Turning off North Atlantic Ocean
  • In tropics warm water evaporates, leaving greater
    salt concentration in the surface water.
  • Salty water travels north and becomes cooler.
  • At some point the salty cool surface water
    becomes more dense than the water underneath it,
    so it sinks rapidly.
  • When the northern ice caps melt by global warming
    or otherwise, they supply fresh water into the
    North Atlantic.
  • At some point the water ceases to be salty enough
    to sink at a specific location.
  • The sinking of cold salty water is what drives
    the North Atlantic Ocean Currents.

Atlantic Ocean Currents
  • Brazilian coastline deflects most of the South
    Equatorial Current into the northern hemisphere.
  • Results in a large transfer of heat from the
    tropics into the far northern hemisphere.
  • Note the several different North Atlantic Ocean
  • The Isthmus of Panama keeps the Atlantic Ocean
    currents from going into the Pacific Ocean. It
    closed about 4 million years ago.

These North Atlantic surface Ocean Currents are
what make Interglacials warm. Notice that there
are several components.
Can We Control Global Warming to Ameliorate Entry
into the Ice Age?
Controlled entry into next ice age by slowing the
rate of burning fossil fuels and/or storing the
carbon dioxide to be released later more
slowly. This would give more time for developing
the infrastructure needed for humans to survive
in the next ice age.
Neolithic Global Warming
  • World population would be reduced either
    intentionally or otherwise.
  • Can humans cooperate enough worldwide to
    peacefully reduce population, control the rate of
    burning fossil fuels and store carbon dioxide in
    the earth to be released at a controlled rate
  • See http//www.arts.bev.net/roperldavid/Ameliorate

Last 1000 Years Earth Temperature Data
Oil Age
The slight drop in temperature until 150 years
ago is due to solar insolation decreasing. The
rapid rise in temperature during the last 150
years is due to burning fossil fuels. This is
expected to continue for several hundred more
years if we continue to burn fossil fuels unless
the Atlantic Ocean current(s) are turned off by
the rapid rise in temperature.
Last 200 Years Earth Temperature and Population
The rapid temperature increase is very similar to
the rapid world population increase. Carbon
dioxide increase behaves similarly. Oceans
contain unbalanced heat energy, which will cause
atmospheric temperatures to rise for another
century even if we quit putting CO2 into the
2005 virtually tied 1998 as the warmest year on
record! http//www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/scien
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Predictions for Next Two Major Ice Ages
Current Interglacial
Next Interglacial 115,000 years from now
Temperature will drop 3 to 4 degrees C in the
next 10,000 years.
Temperature will drop about 7 degrees C in the
next 50,000 years.
There will be shorter time fluctuations not
represented by the model.
The different predictions are for different
models of the climate.
Arctic temperature variations are larger than
temperate and tropics variations.
The next ice age will occur no matter whether we
quickly burn up all the fossil fuels or not.
Human beings will undoubtedly evolve greatly over
the next major ice age of about 110,000 years
duration, due to the extreme stresses of cold
climate, as they did during the last major ice
age. See http//www.roperld.com/science/tempsolins
Triple Threats for the Human Future
  • (Threat 1) Global warming unchecked will cause
    great troubles.
  • (Threat 2) World Petroleum extraction is peaking.
  • (Threat 3) Inevitable next ice age has been
    temporarily ameliorated by Anthropogenic Global
  • Future global warming may trigger the next ice
    age sooner than with only modern global warming
    by turning off Atlantic ocean current(s).
  • The Human Future will be much worse than the news
    media and governments have been telling you!
  • It is interesting that the onset of intensive
    agriculture that led to industrialization was
    possible only in the interglacial just before the
    next ice age.

Troubles Ahead
  • Rich nations will probably not give up their
    dependency on using more than their share of the
    worlds resources. Rich nations may continue
    their killing of people in poor nations to try to
    maintain the high standard of living.
  • Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass
    destruction may be used if the rich nations deem
    it necessary to guarantee their access to the
    remaining resources of the world.
  • Suburban life will become difficult because of
    the difficulty and expense of traveling large
    distances for necessities. City life will become
    difficult because of the energy required to bring
    in necessities. Mostly self sufficient
    communities with surrounding farm lands are the
    best bet for survival (for example Blacksburg
  • Starvation will be widespread. Mass migrations
    from poorer nations to richer nations will
    probably occur.
  • Much knowledge may be lost about how to survive
    in a less energy-intensive world and about how to
    create better living conditions.

How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from
  • Eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of
    mass destruction by all countries, including the
    United States (This implies a high degree of
    world cooperation, not go-it-alone)
  • Emphasize pre-conception birth control to try to
    stabilize and peacefully bring down world
  • Safely store knowledge for future use.
  • Use energy and materials much more efficiently.
  • Change from non-renewable to renewable energy
  • Use the remaining fossil fuels to develop
    infrastructure needed to use renewable energy
  • Depend more on local sources of energy, food and
  • Recycle materials to a high degree.
  • Live closer together in self-sufficient
  • Move from individual transportation to shared
    transportation (e.g., railroads instead of
  • Store carbon dioxide now in a way so that we can
    recover it later to release into the atmosphere
    to ameliorate the plunge into the next ice. See
  • Are humans informed and intelligent enough to
    realize these huge problems and to do these
    things quickly enough?
  • See The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler

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