Attacking the Centre of Gravity Military Approach to Business Planning

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Attacking the Centre of Gravity Military
Approach toBusiness Planning Graeme Davis
Consulting gldavis_at_ozemail.com.au
13 Aug 2003
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Mission
My mission here today is to overview the Military
Appreciation Process (MAP) in order to assist you
improve your business planning. Appreciation
- estimation, judgement Concise Oxford
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References

• Any good book store
• CNN/Fox
• Sun Tzu - The Art of War
• Clausewitz - On War
• www.dodccrp.org/Activities
• Australian Infantry Magazine - April 2003
• Moving Mountains - LTGEN Gus Pagonis
• Front Line Logistics - Supply Chain Review

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COMBINED AND JOINT No BSU is an Island
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The nicest thing about not planning is that
failure comes as a complete surprise thus
avoiding months of worry and angst.
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Some New Jargon

• Asymmetric Warfare
• Attritionist
• Centre of Gravity
• Commanders Intent
• Critical Vulnerability
• Decisive Events
• Directive Control

• End State
• Lines of Operation
• MAP
• Mission
• Situational Awareness
• SMEAC
• SNAFU

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Situational AwarenessEye on the Ball, Finger
on the Pulse
You must live and breath the Situation, plan
within it, and then, as changes occur, review
and modify the Plan as appropriate.
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PRODUCT
MEDIA
PERSONNEL
GLOBAL POLITICS
CLIMATE
RESOURCES
COMPETITOR
ECONOMY
CULTURE RELIGION
LEGAL
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
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Failures that plunged UK operations into crisis
AMP chief executive Andrew Mohl thought he
understood the depth of the problems in the UK
operations .. AFR 3 May 03
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Situational Awareness is not enough To achieve
the Mission you must have a Plan
Military planning previously only went to
H-Hour. Now it plans to End State.
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MILITARY APPRECIATION PROCESS
Individual - Field Commander
Staff - Headquarters
Joint - Army/Navy/Air Force
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HQ STAFF
Intelligence Personnel (HR) Current
Operations Logistics Future Operations Communicati
ons Civil Affairs Public Relations Training
Health Legal Chaplain Finance Discipline
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Military Appreciation Process
Commanders Intent

• Purpose
• Method
• End State

Mission
Courses of Action
Review Confirm
A
B
C
Analysis (eg Wargame)
Decision (Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans Prepared
Execution
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Centre of Gravity

• That characteristic, capability or locality
• from which a force, or nation derives
• its freedom of action, strength or
• will to fight
• Could include weapons (eg tanks,
• cargo ships, air force, satellites),
• leadership (eg Churchill, Gandhi) or
• national resolve (eg Viet Cong)
• Both Blue and Red forces have a COG

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Corporate Centre of Gravity

• What is your competitive strength ?
• What worries you about your competitor ?
• Could include
• key personnel (sales, IT, production)
• faster and less expensive equipment
• multiple sites
• prepared to accept reduced margin
• friendly banker

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Commanders Intent

• The Commander (Board/CEO) has a vision of where
  the force (business) will be in x
  weeks/months/years.
• The vision is expressed as Purpose, Method and
  End State.
• For the military it could be capture of City Y.
• For a business it could be to capture 30 of the
  widget market from competitor Z by designing a
  faster and cheaper widget.
• Commanders Intent leads to preparation of the
  Mission Statement.

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Mission StatementWho, What, Where, When, Whybut
not How!!

• Your mission Mr Phelps is to
• Military - B Company is to clear Hill 123 by
  1500 hours 14 August in order to protect the
  right flank of the Battalion advance.
• Corporate - The Marketing Department is to
  prepare and execute a plan that will increase
  revenue from Product AA by 15 in order for XYZ
  Ltd to achieve its 30 June profit projections.

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Critical Vulnerabilities

• Determine where the Red Force is vulnerable and
  then attack that point.
• Military example 1 The Afrika Corps had
  mobility, tanks and air superiority but relied on
  supplies (eg fuel) coming from Europe. The supply
  chain was critical in achieving Rommels Mission
  but it was vulnerable to attack.
• Military example 2 Night Vision Goggles enable
  24 x 7 combat. Blue Force has the advantage if
  Red Force does not have them.

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Corporate Vulnerabilities

• Through situational awareness you identified your
  competitors COG and where he is vulnerable.
• Vulnerabilities could include
• dissatisfied key personnel (poaching)
• major clients who would transfer their business
• negative cashflow/profitability (sustainability)
• shareholders - are they happy with the dividend ?
• obsolete infrastructure (competitiveness)
• environmental constraints eg labour
  availability/cost

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The Plan

• You have received Guidance from the Commander and
  you know what is happening in the marketplace
  because of your Situational Awareness
• All you have to do is prepare and execute a Plan
• Lets quickly revise the MAP

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Military Appreciation Process
Commanders Intent
Mission
Courses of Action
Review Confirm
WE ARE AT THIS STAGE
A
B
C
Analysis (eg Wargame)
Decision (Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans Prepared
Execution
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COURSES of ACTION (1)

• You move from Current State to End State by
  striking at the enemies (competitors) COG while
  at the same time protecting your own COG.
• Determine Courses of Action (COA) - options
• COA should be significantly different
• Each COA consists of co-ordinated and sequenced
  decisive events (milestones) that progress
  towards the enemys COG by the destruction or
  neutralisation of their critical vulnerabilities

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AFRIKA CORPS

• COG was mobility, armour and air superiority
• Critical Vulnerability was the supply chain -
  without fuel they were immobile
• The Allied plan was to disrupt the supply chain
  by using the Navy to attack convoys in the
  Mediterranean and Special Forces in the desert to
  blow up fuel dumps and parked aircraft

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SECOND GULF WAR

• The sea port near Basra was closed to shipping
  due to a few WW1 vintage mines - Coalition supply
  chain was impacted.
• Coalition road convoys were attacked.
• Severe dust storms restricted visibility,
  movement and targeting.
• Did the Coalition think the fighting would end
  when the Regime (COG) was beaten ?
• With the benefit of hindsight perhaps the
  Coalitions End State was poorly defined.

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USS COLE

• Two (2) terrorists in a rubber boat loaded with
  400-700kg of explosive
• 17 deaths and 39 injuries
• 240M repair bill
• 14 months out of service
• Example of Asymmetric Warfare where an adversary
  pits strength against a weakness, sometimes in an
  unconventional manner

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Corporate Asymmetric Warfare

ASK YOURSELF If I want to obtain a larger share
of the market do I attack head on (Attritionist)
or should I adopt Asymmetric tactics?
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COURSES of ACTION (2)

• Having developed COA they need to be
• Tested - eg Wargame, Monte Carlo simulations,
  third party/due diligence reviews, pilot launch
• Modified if the situation has changed or a better
  way is identified
• Select the one most likely to succeed
• Obtain stakeholder (Commander) sign-off

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SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
PRODUCT
MEDIA
PERSONNEL
POLITICS
CLIMATE
RESOURCES
COMPETITOR
ECONOMY
CULTURE RELIGION
LEGAL
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Military Appreciation Process
Commanders Intent
Mission
Courses of Action
Review Confirm
A
B
C
Analysis (eg Wargame)
WE ARE AT THIS STAGE
Decision (Best/Modified)
Detailed Plans Prepared
Execution
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Detailed Planning Execution

• Military precision went like clock-work timed
  to the minute or SNAFU ?
• A detailed project plan needs to be prepared,
  communicated and controlled.
• In the first Gulf War 75 of containers had to be
  opened on the wharf as their manifests were
  unreliable
• Lack of asset tracking meant that they could not
• find a misplaced dozer blade
• Different religions have different Holy Days -
  this has to be respected and factored into the
  plan

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2003 Gulf WarNew Approach to Logistics

• New technology and logistics capability allowed
  our forces to move further and faster.. with very
  deadly effectiveness
• Weve gotten out of the business of warehousing
  huge mountains of inventories, but we still
  manage small hills of critical and high-demand
  items
• RFID and tracking technology meant the forces
  could advance much faster and further along much
  thinner supply lines

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Presenting and Selling the Plan

• SMEAC
• Situation
• Mission
• Execution
• Administration
• Control

I took the chart I had been briefing
(Schwarzkopf) and wrote - Logisticians will not
let you or our soldiers down. LTGEN William G
Pagonis, 29 Dec 1990
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COMPETITOR REACTION !
No plan survives the first shot. US Defence
Secretary Rumsfeld
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ART SCIENCE

• The MAP is a proven technique but for best
  results it requires practitioners to use
• both sides of their brain
• Left - Sequential Analysis
• Creative Solutions - Right

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Go to Whoa
Situational Awareness
Commanders Intent
Mission
Courses of Action Identified
Courses of Action Analysed
Decision
Detailed Plan (Orders) Prepared
Execution
Current State
End State
Decisive Events
Enemy Centre of Gravity
Contingency
Lines of Operation
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With apologies to General George Patton
It is better to develop and execute a workable
plan in a timely manner as opposed to continuing
to develop the perfect plan on the way to the
PW cage - or bankruptcy!
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