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Effects of SeaLevel Rise on Florida

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... sea-level rise? Brought on by melting of ice sheets think ice in cup. Not a theory already happening (i.e., Tuvalu) Heavily correlated to global warming ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Effects of SeaLevel Rise on Florida


1
Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Florida

Adam Harpool GLY 1073 November 16, 2006
2
What causes sea-level rise?
  • Brought on by melting of ice sheets think ice
    in cup
  • Not a theory already happening (i.e., Tuvalu)
  • Heavily correlated to global warming

3
Has it happened?
  • In last century
  • 10 20 cm rise
  • (about 6-8 in)
  • About 2-3 mm
  • per year along US
  • Atlantic Coast

4
Range of Future Scenarios
5
Best case vs. worst case
  • Best case Rise of only .09 m
  • Worst case Rise of .88 m just over 1 m
  • Similar to Stella scenarios rapid reduction vs.
    BaU
  • But in any event, levels are now rising 50
    faster than past century

6
How vulnerable is Florida?
  • Only DE (60 ft.) has a lower mean elevation than
    FL (100 ft.)

7
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10
Similar to Al Gores scenario
11
Most Vulnerable Counties
12
The Real Problem Coastal Development
13
What will the effects be?
  • Florida GSP 500 billion 4th largest in USA
    richest Southern state after TX
  • Over 110 billion/year from real estate tourism
    brings 60 billion/year
  • A 1 m rise would necessitate spending 8 billion
    to temporarily restore lost beaches
  • South Florida, Cape Coral Area, Sarasota and
    Tampa/St. Pete alone count for 57 of personal
    income in FL
  • Millions would have to relocate to where?

14
Another problem Water Supply
  • Our most urgent short-term problem?
  • Triple Threat Low water table elevation sea
    rise (saltwater) Increased water usage
  • In Hollywood, saltwater intrusion into Biscayne
    Aquifer

15
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16
Long-Term
  • Over hundreds of years, melting will act as an
    auto-catalytic cycle
  • Over 2-3 hundred years, Antarctica Greenland
    40 feet (12 meters) sea level rise
  • Florida no longer exists as we know it

17
Florida long-term BaU
18
Mitigation
  • Minimize coastal development (zoning, impact
    fees, etc.)
  • Swamp/marsh restoration projects (aquifer
    health)
  • (Of course) Minimize greenhouse gas emissions
    (Florida ranks 5th in USA)

19
Conclusion
  • Without action, sea levels likely to rise 1 m in
    next 100-150 years
  • In Florida, a 1 m sea level rise will displace
    millions and cause billions in damage
  • In short term, damage to aquifer through
    saltwater intrusion should be our main concern
  • Floridas 10 most vulnerable counties have 46
    of states population, 57 of personal income
  • Easy fix less coastal development
  • Ultimate fix stop/reverse global warming

20
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21
Simulate Sea-Level Rise
  • http//www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/cl
    imate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_leve
    l_rise.htm

22
References/Works Cited
  • Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Hassol, Susan J,
    Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Group,
    Cambridge University Press, 2004
  • Costal Zones and Sea Level Rise, Environment
    Protection Agency, http//epa.gov/climatechange/e
    ffects/coastal/index.html, 2006 Oct. 19
  • Saving Floridas Vanishing Shores, Florida
    Environment Protection Agency, March 2002
  • Climate Change and Sea Level, Weiss and
    Overpeck, Department of Geosciences, University
    of Arizona http//www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/re
    search/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/
    sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm
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