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The Demography of Aging

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Title: The Demography of Aging


1
The Demography of Aging
2
contents
  • Number and proportion of the elderly
  • Aging and the older population
  • The Demographic Transition
  • The Dependency Ratio
  • Sex, Race, and Ethnic Composition

3
Assessing the circumstances of the old people in
the United States (p. 42)
  • Requires an understanding
  • How this group is currently constituted
  • How the elderly population has changed
  • from the past,
  • How it may change in the future.

4
Demography of Aging (p. 42)
  • The scientific study of population attributes or
    materials.
  • Population attributes fertility, mortality,
  • and migration
  • Population attributes influence and are
    influenced by social and economic conditions.

5
The reasons increasing the old population in the
USA (p. 42)
  • High birthrates
  • progress in public health and medicine
  • immigration to the USA

6
What does the older population be defined?
  • Definition The elderly as those 65 years of age
    and older
  • This definition is a useful designation for
    gerontologists.

7
Neugartens distinction about the older (p. 42-53)
  • The young-old (55 to74 years of age)
  • The old-old (75 years of age and older)
  • The very old or the oldest-old (85 years of age
    and older)

8
Differences between different old aged (p. 43)
  • The young-old are healthier, wealthier, and
    better educated than the old-old, and their
    family and career experiences and expectations
    are quite different.

9
  • Number and proportion of the elderly in the USA
  • (p. 43-44)

10
p. 43
11
Average life expectancy at birth in the USA
  • Data from the Census Bureau
  • The middle series of population projection the
    life expectancy in the year 2050 is 82 years
  • The highest series of population projection the
    life expectancy in the year 2050 is 89.4 years

12
The proportion of older people in the total
population (p. 44 above)
  • In the future the The proportion of older people
    in the total population in the USA will be
    determined in great part by the fertility rate
    (birthrate)
  • The middle series of population projections by
    the Census Bureau assumes the lifetimes births
    per woman is 2.25.
  • The elderly are expected to constitute about
    16.5 percent of the total U.S population by the
    year 2020 and 20 percent by 2050.

13
  • Aging of the older population
  • (p. 44-45)

14
proportion of older people in the total
population in the USA (p. 44)
  • Not only did the older population of the United
    States grow in absolute size and in its
    proportion of the total population during 20th
    century but it also aged.
  • The median age of the 65-and-over population in
    the USA. See the table 3.2 below?

15
p.44
16
the most rapidly growing elderly age group. (p.44)
  • The oldest-old, those 85 years of age and over,
    are the most rapidly growing elderly age group.
  • Now 4 million or 12.3 percent of the elderly
  • Thanks to expected high rates of survivorship
    among the Baby Boom generation, it is expected
    that the oldest-old will number over 18 million
    in 2050, or 23.1 percent of elderly Americans and
    about 5 percent of all Americans.

17
Implication of the Aging population (p. 45)
  • The aging of the older population that is
    expected to occur over the next two decades or so
    has important policy implication for local,
    State, and federal agencies.
  • One example involves the question of whether
    quality health service will be available to the
    growing population of elderly and very old people
    at an affordable cost.

18
  • The Demographic Transition theory

19
The Demographic Transition theory (p. 45)
  • This theory is concerned with the relationship
    between birthrates and death rates (as well as
    migration rates) and the resulting effects on the
    age composition of population.
  • It allows one to understand and predict changes
    in the age composition of a society.
  • This theory describes a three-stage process
    whereby a population moves from high fertility
    and high mortality to low fertility and low
    mortality.
  • Most industrialized societies today have gone
    through the entire process of the demographic
    transition

20
The first stage of demographic transition (p. 45)
  • The first stage of the demographic transition is
    characterized by high birthrates and high death
    rates. Example
  • preindustrial societies.
  • Life expectancy is no more than 35 or 40 years.
  • Fertility and mortality rates was also high

21
The second stage of demographic transition (p. 45)
  • The second stages is sometimes called
    transitional growth.
  • Is characterized by continued high birthrates but
    a declining mortality.
  • The population grows very rapidly and undergoes
    changes in age composition.
  • The declining death rates are due to
    technological changes and reduced vulnerability
    to crop failures and famine..

22
The second stage of demographic transition (p. 45)
  • The age composition changes usually involve a
    slightly increased proportion of the elderly and
    a marked increase in the proportion of the young.
  • Today, the less-industrialized countries of the
    world are in the middle stage of the demographic
    transition. Their death rates have fallen, but
    their birthrates remain high.

23
The third stage of demographic transition (p. 46)
  • It is characterized by low mortality and low or
    controlled fertility.
  • It is most often descriptive of modern Western
    societies.
  • The falling of birthrates in these countries are
    due to social and economic changes.
  • It is also resulted from the improving of the
    birth-control techniques
  • The decline in mortality

24
The Population Pyramid (p. 46-47)
  • The Population Pyramid is a special type of bar
    graph, with the various bars representing
    successive age categories, from the lowest at the
    bottom to the highest at the top.
  • The population represented in this graphic device
    is usually broken down into 5-10 year intervals,
    with each bar divided between males at the left
    and females the the right.
  • The length of the bar represents the population
    either in absolute figures or as a percentage.

25
Figure 3.1 Age Distribution of the U.S
Population 1995,2010,2030

p. 48
26

  • p. 47
  • The 1995 pyramid is somewhat bottom-heavy, with
    the largest age groups being 30 to 34 and 35 to
    39 years of age and birthrates somewhat lower
    since 1967.
  • The narrowness of the top of the 1995 pyramid is
    a result of lower birthrates during the
    Depression and deaths.
  • The large Baby Boom cohorts are all over age 35.
  • The pyramid of 2010 reflects continuing
    expectation of lower birthrates into the first
    decade of the twenty-first century.
  • The pyramid would come to look like a rectangle
    turned on its end.(see pyramid 2030)

27
The Dependency Ratio (p. 47-49)
  • Arithmetically, the ratio represents the number
    or proportion of individuals in the dependent
    segment of the population divided by the number
    or proportion of individuals in the supportive or
    working population.
  • Old-age dependency ratio is defined 65/18-64
  • This is also what we call societal old age
    dependency ratio.

28
p.49
29
Familiar old-age dependency ratios (p. 50)
  • It can be used to illustrate the shifts in the
    ratio of elderly parents to children who would
    support them.
  • The ratio is also defined in simply demographic
    terms
  • Population aged 65 to 84 /population aged 45
    to 54.

30
p. 50
31
familial old-age dependency ratios for the United
States. P. 50 50)
  • Table 3.4
  • Changes in the familial old-age dependency ratio
    results mainly from past trends in fertility.
  • The relative high ratio in 1990 reflects the
    combination of high fertility and reduced
    birthrates during the 1930s and 1940s.
  • The higher ratio expected in 2020 and 2030
    results from high fertility during the post-World
    War II Baby Boom years and the low birthrates of
    the 1970s and early 1980s.

32
p.51
33
Figure 3.2 Total Dependency Ratio, Actual and
Projected, Specified
Countrt 1880-2050
p. 53
34
p.53
???
Ratio of persons ages 0 to 14 and 65 to those
ages 15 to 64
35
Old-and Young-Age Dependency Ratios (p. 51-52)
  • The total dependency ratio
  • From 1870 to 1986 population growth has shown a
    downward trend in most industrialized countries.

36
Geographic distribution (p. 57)
p.58
37
Residential mobility (p. 58-59)
  • Some of the growth in state elderly population is
    due to natural increase. But some is the result
    of interstate migration.
  • But the elderly are much less likely to be
    residential mobility.
  • The proportion of women movers is comparable to
    those of men for all elderly age groups and
    mobility types.

38
Two age-based patterns of elderly migration (p.
59)
  • Rogers identification in the study of selected
    developed countries, including the USA.
  • Intercommunity amenity-motivated, long-
  • distance migration
  • Intracommunity assistance-motivated,
  • short-distance moves.

39
Move patterns according to Study result of the
U.S Census Bureau (p. 59)
  • In the 1985-1990 period, those 85 years of age
    and older were more likely to have moved within
    the USA than those age 65 to 84 years.
  • The move of the oldest-old may be related to
    health problems perhaps nursing homes or
    residence of near relatives.
  • Most elderly migrants who move to a different
    county stay in the same region of the country as
    where they previously lived.
  • Longino (1995) Interstate migration of persons
    60 years of age and over tends to be concentrated
    among relatively few origin and destination
    states.

40
Geographic patterns of residential mobility in
the USA (p. 59)
  • The U.S Census Bureaus data
  • The 13 states with the highest net elderly
    inmigration rates are in the South and Southwest,
    the so-called Sunbelt.
  • Like Florida and Arizona

41
Economic implication of the elderly interstate
migration (p. 59)
  • Substantial amounts of retirement income may be
    transferred between states as a result of
    retirement migration.
  • 1990 Census data, the Sunbelt states like
    Florida, California and Arizona would be expected
    to benefit from interstate migration of the aged.
  • Frostbelt states in the Midwest lose as a result
    of elderly interstate income transfers.

42
Elderly move (p. 59)
  • The first elderly move the retirement move
  • The second elderly move
  • is motivated by the disability and widowhood.
  • represents an effort to move closer to the
    supportive efforts of adult children and other
    relatives.
  • The second elderly move may represent a double
    whammy in income transfer for many Midwest and
    Northeast sending states.

43
Residential Concentration (p. 60)
  • Increasing, the elderly have become an urbanized
    population, locating in central cities or in
    places that structurally and functionally are
    parts of larger metropolitan areas.
  • 1990, only 26.4 percent of the elderly in the USA
    lived outside of large metropolitan areas.
  • Frey(1992) said that the growth in the urban
    elderly population is largely the result of
    younger cohorts aging in place and of
    residential relocations made earlier in the life
    span, rather than of relocation made after
    retirement.

44
Residential Concentration (p. 60)
  • In 1990, 79 percent of the U.S. population
    resided within a metropolitan area.
  • About 74 percent for the population age 65 years
    and over resided within a metropolitan area.
  • Metropolitan population growth in the USA has
    been a function of the growth of suburbs.

45
Racial difference of elderly residents (p.60)
  • Elderly American Indians, Eskimos and Aleuts were
    the only racial group which are more likely to
    live outside metropolitan areas.
  • Elderly Asian Americans were most likely to live
    inside metropolitan areas (13 inside to1
    outside), followed by elderly Latinos (about 8
    to1) , elderly African Americans (about 4 to 1),
    elderly whites (about 3 to 1)
  • In each of the racial groups, the oldest-old were
    somewhat more likely to be found residing outside
    metropolitan areas.
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