Nuclear Proliferation and US Foreign Policy

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Nuclear Proliferation and US Foreign Policy
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Proliferation- Spread of Weapons of Mass
Destruction
Horizontal vs Vertical Proliferation
Vertical- Spread within states that already have
Nuclear Weapons
Horizontal- Spread to states that do not have them
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States that are suspected of having India,
Pakistan,Israel
States that might be able to produce Iran, North
Korea, and Terrorists
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Importance of Proliferation 1) Jeopardizes US
and interests
2) threatens US allies
3) Widespread proliferation and dangers
4) Accidents
5) Environment
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Current Policy -- Prevention and Defense
Prevention- Treaties- Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT)
Negotiated in the 1960s, came into force March
1970
Most states are a member.
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Key Holdouts Cuba, India, Israel, and Pakistan
NPT- distinction between NWS (US, GB, FRG, CHN,
RUS) and NNWS
NNWS Pledge 1) Not Proliferate
2) Accept IAEA safeguards
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NWS pledge 1) Not help proliferators
2) Nuclear Disarm
3) Assist in Peaceful Spread Nuclear Energy
Key Concerns 1) Proliferating States outside the
Treaty
2) NWS not disarming, no CTBT, etc.
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1995- NPT extended indefinitely
MTCR- Missile Technology Control Regime
Reduction in US nuclear weapons 1966 (high)
32,000 warheadsbombs 2007- 9,000 (only half
are active) New START- 1550 active
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Obama CTBT (Ratification failed once) Weapons
grade fissile material ban These are proposed
(see alternatives)
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DEFENSE- COUNTER-PROLIFERATION 1) Sanctions
2) Force- Targeted or Broader (Clinton- 1994
Threat to NK, Bush- Threat to Iran, Used against
Iraq, Obama-?)
3) ABM and ATBM (ABM less emphasized?)
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Alternatives 1) All Prevention- CTBT, NFU, no
ABM
Advs 1) addresses hypocrisy and criticism
CTBT Advs 1) Commitment
2) restraints others
3) US not need
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Advs of Prevention 2) others restrain
Problems with Prevention 1) Too Late 2) Too Little
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Managed Proliferation (Like Dealing with Teenage
Sex)
US Policy 1) Defense 2) Safeguards
Advs 1) reality
2) No accidents
3) Deterrence
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Problems 1) kills NPT 2) encourages
Proliferation 3) Unstable
3) Resolve Conflicts Instead
Advs- solves reasons, prevents war
Problems- US in the Conflict, cant resolve