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2007 Georgia Hurricane Program Chris Walsh, Hurricane Program Manager Operations Division, GEMA July

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Title: 2007 Georgia Hurricane Program Chris Walsh, Hurricane Program Manager Operations Division, GEMA July


1
2007 Georgia Hurricane Program Chris Walsh,
Hurricane Program Manager Operations Division,
GEMA July 18, 2007
2
Hurricane Rita (2005) compared to Georgia
3
2007 Hurricane Season Forecast
  • Seasonal forecasts are produced by Dr. William
    Gray of Colorado State University
  • Seasonal forecast released in December and
    updated in April, June, September…
  • The Atlantic Hurricane Outlook is produced by the
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations
    (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Climate
    Prediction Center
  • Released in May and August

4
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
  • Lets put these numbers into perspective. What is
    an average year? During the years of 1851 2004,
    average is…

Named Storms Hurricanes Major
Hurricanes
NOAA 13 -17 7 - 10 3 - 5
Average 11 4 2
Dr. Gray 17 9 5
5
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
  • A word on the Atlantic Seasonal Outlooks released
    by Dr. Gray and NOAA…
  • Outlooks are the best scientific guess
  • They are good for determining above or below
    average activity and should not be taken as
    accurate numbers, but predictions for guidance

6
Atlantic Hurricane Activity
  • 2005 Tropical Cyclones
  • 28 Named Storms
  • 15 Hurricanes
  • 7 M. Hurricanes
  • 1992 Tropical Cyclones
  • 6 Named Storms
  • 4 Hurricanes
  • 1 M. Hurricanes

Why such a dramatic difference???
7
Seasonal Outlook - Causative Factors
  • Two factors are considered when making a seasonal
    hurricane forecast
  • Atlantic Multi-Decadal Cycle
  • Increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
  • Decreased Vertical Wind Shear
  • El Niño / La Niña

8
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Cycle
  • What is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Cycle???
  • Longer periods of time (roughly 20 30 years)
    with increased or decreased activity
  • Determined by looking at hurricane activity over
    the last 156 years (1851 2006)
  • We are currently in an increased period of
    activity that began in 1995
  • Expected to continue through 2020

9
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Cycle
  • INACTIVE YEAR CYCLES
  • 1903-1925
  • 1971-1994
  • 47 Year Total
  • ACTIVE YEAR CYCLES
  • 1926-1970
  • 1995-present

10
2007 Hurricane Season Forecast
  • Sea Surface Temperatures are above average…

11
2007 Hurricane Season Forecast
12
2007 Hurricane Season Forecast
  • El Niño / La Niña ???
  • What exactly is El Niño / La Niña and how do they
    affect Atlantic hurricane activity?
  • The El Niño / La Niña phenomena are collectively
    referred to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
    (ENSO)
  • Both are deviations from climatological average
    Sea Surface Temperatures in the Pacific
    Ocean…yes, the Pacific

13
El Niño
  • El Niño is an abnormal rise in Sea Surface
    Temperatures in the central and western
    equatorial Pacific

14
El Niño
  • Ok, so how does this affect hurricane activity in
    the Atlantic?
  • Through energy transfer modes known as
    teleconnections, global wind patterns are
    altered
  • In the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño creates Increased
    Vertical Wind Shear
  • Increased vertical wind shear produces an
    environment unfavorable for hurricane formation

15
La Niña
  • La Niña is an abnormal decrease in Sea Surface
    Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

16
La Niña
  • So how does La Niña affect hurricane activity?
  • Through energy transfer modes known as
    teleconnections, global wind patterns are
    altered
  • La Niña creates decreases in wind shear over the
    equatorial Atlantic Ocean
  • Decreased wind shear creates an environment
    highly favorable for hurricane formation

17
2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
  • The elevated numbers that are forecast for 2007
    are because
  • Since 1995, above average temperatures have been
    observed in the Atlantic Ocean
  • Current Sea Surface Temperatures in the Atlantic
    Ocean are above normal
  • The NWS Climate Prediction Center anticipates a
    transition to weak to moderate La Niña conditions
    within the next 3 months
  • Positive Multi-Decadal Cycle

18
Remember…
  • It only takes one Tropical Cyclone to create a
    catastrophic disaster!!
  • Remember
  • Hurricane Katrina (2005)
  • Hurricane Andrew (1992)
  • Hurricane Camille (1969)
  • Tropical Storm Alberto (1994)
  • Tropical Storm Allison (2001)

19
Major Hurricanes within 65 nmi of Coastal
Georgia 1800-1899
1893
1885
1896
1893
1804
1854
1824
1898
1813
Year Category - Landfall 1804 Est. Cat. 4
Glynn 1813 Est. Cat. 3 Camden 1824 Est.
Cat. 3 Glynn 1854 Cat. 3 Liberty/Bryan 1885
Cat. 3 Offshore 1893 Cat. 3
Bryan/Chatham 1893 Cat. 3 Offshore 1896 Cat
.3 Cedar Key, Fl. 1898 Cat .4 Camden
1896
Graphic by Al Sandrik NWS WFO Jacksonville
1885
1824
1813
1898
1893
1804
20
OPCONs
  • Georgia Hurricane Plan utilizes Operating
    Conditions (OPCON)
  • More coincident with other states and local
    emergency operations plans
  • There are 5 levels of OPCONs that dictate
    different levels of coordination, preparedness,
    and response actions

21
State Operations Center Activation Levels
22
OPCON 5
  • December 1 May 31
  • Day-to-day operating level of the State
    Operations Center (SOC) Activation Level 3
    (Green)
  • Review/update of operations plans, training,
    conducting exercises, public outreach and
    education
  • Reviewing previous hurricane seasons and
    incorporating lessons learned
  • June 1 November 30 (Hurricane Season)
  • Monitoring the Atlantic Basin via the National
    Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts to determine the
    threat/existence/status of tropical cyclones
  • When a tropical cyclone threatens another state,
    coordination efforts are undertaken

23
OPCON 4
  • The transition from OPCON 5 to OPCON 4 occurs
    when a tropical cyclone is identified that poses
    a threat to the State of Georgia
  • Possible impacts in Georgia within 120-72 hours
    (arrival of tropical storm force winds)
  • May include a Level 2 (Yellow) - Partial
    Activation of the SOC
  • Information dissemination about the threat to
    GEMA staff, key state departments/agencies and
    local Emergency Management Agencies (EMA)
  • Regional conference calls are held with
    threatened areas briefings to the Governors
    Office coordination with FEMA, NHC, NWS, and
    other State EMAs

24
OPCON 3
The transition from OPCON 4 to OPCON 3 is
initiated when the threat of a tropical cyclone
becomes significant
  • Possible impacts in Georgia within 72 hours
  • Will include a Level 2 (Yellow) - Partial
    Activation of the SOC and possibly a Level 1
    (Red) Full Activation
  • Communication and coordination with Federal,
    State, local, volunteer, and private sector
    partners
  • Key state agencies prepare for evacuations
  • Forward Staging Areas (FSA), Logistics Staging
    Area (LSA), Evacuation and Re-entry Branch (ERB)
    are placed on stand-by
  • Regional conference calls are held to discuss
    state-level protective actions

25
OPCON 2
The transition from OPCON 3 to OPCON 2 occurs
when the threat of a tropical cyclone affecting
Georgia appears imminent
  • Possible impacts in Georgia within 48-24 hours
  • Likely a Level 1 (Red) Full Activation of the
    SOC
  • Dependant on the severity of the tropical cyclone
    and the forecasted degree of impacts to Georgia
  • Deployment of commodities to the LSA
  • Deployment Re-entry Task Force Teams to FSA/s
  • Initiation of the Evacuation and Re-entry Branch
    (ERB)
  • Statewide conference calls are held to discuss
    state-level protective actions and the
    coordination of mandatory evacuation orders

26
OPCON 1
The transition from OPCON 2 to OPCON 1 initiated
when the threat of a land-falling tropical
cyclone is imminent and evacuation orders are
issued or when an influx of evacuees from other
states impact Georgia
  • This transition to OPCON 1 will typically occur
    36-24 hours in advance of the arrival of tropical
    storm force winds, but may occur upwards of 72
    hours
  • OPCON 1 may be triggered when evacuations affect
    the state either from the Georgia coast or from
    neighboring states
  • Level 1 (RED) - Full activation of the SOC will
    continue past the arrival of a hurricane and into
    response and recovery operations

27
Re-entry - Definition
  • Re-entry is defined as the Transition from a
    response phase (evacuations…) to a recovery
    phase
  • After the storm has moved away, re-entry and
    clean-up will be time consuming and dangerous
    since extensive flooding, extremely heavy rains,
    and high winds will have ravaged the southeastern
    portions of Georgia
  • Georgia DOT Coastal Hurricane Evacuation
    Plan

28
Re-entry
  • So, Re-entry is…
  • Gaining initial access into impacted areas
  • Restricting public access to impacted areas until
    areas are deemed safe by local officials
  • Re-entry Task Force Teams gain access to impacted
    areas to make them accessible for
  • Search and Rescue
  • Damage Assessments
  • Infrastructure Restoration
  • Hazardous Materials Cleanup
  • Commodities Distribution

29
Re-entry Timeline
  • 72 48 hours Re-entry partners are notified of
    the threat and requested to have teams placed on
    stand-by
  • 48 24 hours Re-entry Task Force Teams are
    deployed to Forward Staging Areas and Base Camps
  • Times are referenced to the arrival of tropical
    storm force winds

30
Re-entry Timeline
  • Once a hurricane has affected the state and
    tropical storm force winds have subsided (39 mph
    and higher), re-entry operations will begin
  • Equipment and personnel will be deployed from
    Forward Staging Areas (FSA)
  • Commodities will be distributed from a Logistics
    Staging Area (LSA) to Points of Distribution
    (POD) for recovery

31
Forward Staging Areas
  • Equipment for re-entry will be pre-staged at 1 or
    2 of the these staging areas
  • Waycross Ware County Exchange Club
  • Metter Georgia National Guard Armory
  • Dublin Civitan Fairgrounds
  • Tifton GDOT District 4 Maintenance Office

32
Evacuation and Re-entry Branch
  • The Evacuation and Re-entry Branch (ERB) is a
    Forward Operations Center tasked with
    coordinating the State-level response for
    evacuations and with tactical control of Re-entry
    Operations
  • Comprised of partners from
  • GEMA
  • Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT)
  • Georgia State Patrol (GSP)
  • Georgia Forestry Commission (GFC)
  • Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
  • Georgia Department of Defense (DOD)
  • Utilities companies represented by
  • Georgia Power Corporation (GPC)
  • Georgia Electric Membership Corporations (EMC)
    along the coast
  • Georgia Transmission Corporation (GTC)

33
Re-entry Phases
  • Re-entry operations are conducted using a phased
    approach
  • Phase 1 State and Local Authorized Re-entry
  • Includes two response levels
  • Phase 2 Limited Public Re-entry
  • Phase 3 General Public Re-entry

34
Re-entry Phase 1
Phase 1 - Response Level 1 Emergency Crew Entry
  • Re-entry Task Force Teams will deploy from the
    Forward Staging Area/s along pre-designated
    re-entry routes and clear a path into impacted
    areas
  • GDOT will conduct damage assessments of roads and
    bridges
  • DNR and others will assist with damage
    assessments of other facilities
  • Other State and Local agencies will be involved
    as necessary

35
Re-entry Phase 1
Phase 1 - Response Level 2 Critical Work Force
Entry
  • Once access into impacted areas is gained,
    Response Level 2 is initiated
  • Traffic Control Points (TCP) are initiated to
    limit access into impacted areas that are
    dangerous
  • Critical Work Force Crews will enter these areas
    to respond to dangerous conditions

36
Re-entry Phase 1
Phase 1 - Response Level 2 Critical Work Force
Entry
  • Re-entry passes are distributed by the coastal
    Emergency Management Agencies to critical work
    force personnel within their county
  • A Work ID is Required
  • Re-entry passes are not required for everyone
    Military, Utilities workers…

37
Re-entry Phase 2
Phase 2 Limited Public Entry
  • Once certain impacted areas are deemed safe for
    the public, Phase 2 is initiated
  • Who is allowed in?
  • Citizens who own property in impacted areas
  • Citizens who live in impacted areas
  • Citizens who own a business in impacted areas

38
Re-entry Phase 3
Phase 3 General Public Entry
  • Phase 3 occurs when the general public is allowed
    access into impacted areas
  • This is a local decision
  • Phase 2 may by bypassed if deemed appropriate

39
2006 / 2007 Accomplishments
  • Multiple hurricane preparedness efforts have been
    conducted during this past year to include
  • Hurricane Exercises
  • Special Needs Population Evacuations
  • Hurricane Post-landfall Re-entry
  • Private Sector Partnerships
  • Air Support Operations Center
  • Logistics
  • Fuel Planning

40
Hurricane Exercises
  • July 18, 2006 GEMA Hurricane Omni Exercise
    HURREX 1
  • Focused on pre-landfall actions
  • Full day functional exercise involving all ESFs
    in the SOC

41
Hurricane Exercises
  • December 13, 2006 GEMA Hurricane Sierra Exercise
    HURREX 2
  • Focused on post-landfall actions during the first
    24 hours after landfall
  • Full day functional exercise involving all ESFs
    in the SOC

42
Hurricane Exercises
  • May 26 June 1, 2007 NWS Tri-State Hurricane
    Amy Exercise
  • Included participation by AL, FL, and GA
  • Focused on both pre- and post-landfall landfall
    actions
  • SOC and local EMA participation
  • Tri-State and local EMA coordination efforts
    exercised

43
Special Needs
  • A State sheltering plan is in final development
  • Every State Public Health District has a plan in
    place for sheltering Special Needs Populations
  • Triage locations have been identified for
    State-assisted evacuations in coastal counties
  • Several ongoing efforts to ensure adequate
    coastal evacuations
  • Planning has included
  • GEMA
  • DHR Division of Public Health and the Division
    of Family and Children Services, Office of EMS,
    Office of Regulatory Services
  • Department of Community Health
  • Department of Transportation
  • University of Georgia and Medical College of
    Central Georgia
  • Georgia State Patrol
  • Georgia Healthcare Association
  • Georgia Hospital Association

44
Re-entry
  • The development 32 of Re-entry Task Force Teams
  • Teams will be comprised of personnel from
  • Georgia Forestry Commission (GFC)
  • Georgia Department of Transportation (GDOT)
  • Georgia Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
  • Georgia Department of Public Safety Georgia
    State Patrol (GSP)
  • Georgia Electric Membership Corporation (GEMC)
  • Georgia Electric Membership Cooperatives (EMC)
  • Georgia Power Corporation (GPC)
  • Georgia Transmission Corporation (GTC)
  • Georgia Department of Defense Georgia Army
    National Guard (DOD)

45
Re-entry
  • Development of Support Strike Teams
  • Law Enforcement
  • Bridge Inspection
  • Deep Water Bridge Inspection
  • Further Support Strike Teams are being developed
  • Fire Suppression
  • Medical Support

46
Private Sector Partnerships
  • The Business Executives for National Security
    (BENS) Georgia Business Force and GEMA have
    established the Business Operations Center (BOC)
  • The BOC is a virtual operations center that links
    private sector partners that have a role in
    disaster response with GEMA in the SOC
  • The BOC will effect a higher level of
    preparedness and response through joint
    utilization of resources

47
Air Support Operations Center
  • Hurricane Katrina demonstrated the need to
    coordinate aerial response operations
  • Through efforts made by the Georgia State Patrol
    and the Georgia Air National Guard (DOD), an Air
    Support Operations Center (ASOC) has been
    developed
  • The ASOC will be deployed to one of two airports
    along the coast and will commence operations upon
    passage of the hurricane

48
Logistics
  • Re-entry operations will be conducted using a
    Forward Staging Area (FSA) and Base Camp concept
  • FSAs will be used for operational purposes only
    deployment of Re-entry Task Force Teams and
    Support Strike Teams
  • Base Camps will provide basic life support
    services meals, sleeping quarters…

49
Fuel Planning
  • Currently working with the Department of
    Agriculture and the Georgia Environmental
    Facilities Authority to develop a fuel plan for
    Georgia
  • Planning for augmenting fuel supplies during
    evacuations to support evacuees
  • Pre-positioning fuel for a post-landfall response
  • Planning for providing fuel for responding
    entities

50
  • Any Questions?

51
ESF 1 - Transportation Primary Agencies
  • Department of Transportation
  • Department of Public Safety

Scope To provide coordination of state ground,
air and water transportation resources in order
to assist state agencies, local jurisdictions and
volunteer organizations with evacuation and
transport of supplies and equipment during an
emergency or disaster
52
ESF 2 - Communications Primary Agency
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Scope To provide communications and warnings to
state agencies, first responders and the
public Describes the communications,
surveillance and warning systems that will be
utilized by federal, state and local agencies and
organizations in the event of an emergency
53
ESF 3 - Public Works Engineering Primary
Agencies
  • Department of Natural Resources
  • Department of Transportation

Scope To establish priorities for the control of
water resources and use of sewer facilities and
provide for coordination of engineering resources
and expertise in an emergency or disaster.
54
ESF 4 - Firefighting Primary Agency
  • Georgia Forestry Commission

Scope To provide comprehensive fire suppression
services and assist local governments in their
efforts to control rural and wildland/urban
interface fires.
55
ESF 5 - Emergency Management Primary Agency
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Scope To provide assistance to local governments
for evacuation procedures and facilitate the
assessment of total damages including a
formulated estimate of initial government
expenditures resulting from an emergency or
disaster.
56
ESF 6 Mass Care, Housing and Human
Services Primary Agencies
  • Department of Human Resources
  • Principal Voluntary Agency - ARC

Scope To provide a coordinated approach for
collection, analysis and dissemination of
information in order to facilitate the overall
provision of services and resources during an
emergency or disaster. This includes a
coordinated effort to provide mass care services
such as shelter, food and first aid.
57
ESF 7- Resource Support Primary Agency
  • Department of Administrative Services

Scope To provide an expedient approval and
purchase of supplies and equipment essential to
emergency or disaster operations
58
ESF 8 - Public Health Medical Primary Agency
  • Department of Human Resources

Scope To coordinate and/or deliver public
health, environmental health, medical services
and mental health services to facilitate the
provision of support and services by private
resources and to coordinate the supplementation
of disrupted or overburdened service resources
and personnel to relieve suffering and/or trauma
of victims.
59
ESF 9 - Search Rescue Primary Agency
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Scope To provide coordination of state resources
for search and rescue operations during an
emergency or disaster that is beyond the
capabilities of local governments within the
affected areas.
60
ESF 10 - Hazardous Materials Primary Agencies
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency
  • Department of Natural Resources

Scope To provide a coordinated response by
local, state and federal resources to minimize
adverse effects on the population and environment
resulting from the release of or exposure to
hazardous or radiological materials.
61
ESF 11 - Agriculture Natural Resources Primary
Agencies
  • Georgia Department of Agriculture
  • Department of Natural Resources
  • Scope
  • Identify, secure and distribute food, bottled
    beverages, and supplies, and support the
    provision for sanitary food storage, distribution
    and preparation during emergency or disaster
  • Provide for mitigation, response and recovery to
    natural disasters and/or acts of terrorism
    affecting animals, production agriculture, and
    the food sector
  • Assist agriculture in an outbreak of a highly
    infectious/contagious or economically devastating
    animal/zoonotic disease, or a highly infective
    exotic plant disease or an economically
    devastating plant pest infestation
  • Assist production agriculture, animal industry,
    aquaculture, the seafood industry, and wildlife
    adversely affected by a disaster, either natural
    or man-made
  • Conserve, rehabilitate, recover, and restore
    natural, cultural, and historic properties to,
    during, and after a man-made or natural disaster

62
ESF 12 - Energy Primary Agencies
  • Georgia Department of Agriculture
  • Public Service Commission

Scope To coordinate the provision of emergency
power and fuel for support of immediate response
operations and restoration of electric and fuel
supply to normal after an emergency or disaster
63
ESF 13 - Public Safety Security Primary Agencies
  • Department of Public Safety
  • Georgia Bureau of Investigation
  • Office of Consumer Affairs

Scope To provide coordination of state resources
to maintain law and order during and emergency or
disaster, including traffic and crowd control.
Law enforcement supervises the search and rescue
operations as well as deceased identification
during and emergency or a disaster that are
beyond capabilities of local governments within
affected areas. In addition, law enforcement
investigates criminal allegations relating to
consumer complaints of fraud and price gouging.
64
ESF 14 - Long Term Recovery Mitigation Primary
Agency
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Scope To provide the implementation procedures
for public assistance and hazard mitigation
following a presidential declaration of an
emergency or major disaster in Georgia. This
includes the ongoing effort to lessen the impact
disasters have on peoples lives and property
through such items as damage prevention and flood
insurance.
65
ESF 15 - External Affairs Primary Agencies
  • Georgia Emergency Management Agency
  • Office of the Governor

Scope To provide a coordinated approach for
collection, analysis and dissemination of
information in order to facilitate the overall
provision of services and resources during an
emergency or disaster. This includes providing
communications to inform news media about
emergency preparedness and response for
distribution to the public, to assure appropriate
agency and organization preparedness and response
for protection of life and property and to convey
additional information including restrictions and
limitations due to an emergency or disaster.
66
SOC Staff Development
  • The Department of Homeland Security has stated
    that for full compliance not only should GEMA
    staff be trained, but also those personnel that
    respond to GEMA in times of need.
  • Staff Development Database
  • Individual assignments
  • Required training
  • Independent Study
  • SOC courses
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