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Steve Rayner

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Smoking gun Antarctic ozone hole. JamesMartinInstitute ... Initial permit allocation by auction. Trading in like-for-like gases (SO2) not divergent baskets ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Steve Rayner


1
Steve Rayner Gwyn Prins James Martin Institute
for Science and Civilization
  • THE WRONG TROUSERS
  • RADICALLY RETHINKING CLIMATE POLICY

2
THE WRONG TROUSERS
3
THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
  • Negative learning (Oppenheimer) - looking at
    consequences of organizing research around wrong
    scientific model
  • Technological lock-in (Arthur David) - looking
    at how early adoption decisions constrain
    subsequent developments
  • Wicked problems (Rittel Webber) - recognizing
    intractable, multi-attribute problems dangers
    of premature closure
  • Uncomfortable knowledge (Douglas, Ravetz) -
    highlighting problem of the social construction
    of ignorance arising from institutional
    commitments
  • Clumsy solutions (Shapiro) focusing on creating
    conditions for emergent solutions in face of
    contradictory certitudes

4
CLIMATE POLICY IN THE BEGINNING
  • Climate change will never be a major public
    policy issue 1986
  • Too far in future
  • Science too uncertain
  • No obvious villain
  • Sound diagnosis but wrong conclusion!
  • Something for everyone in climate change!

5
CLIMATE CHANGE THE EUROPEAN CONTEXT
  • 3 decades of the European project (climate as a
    handy external threat to all)
  • Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess out to get
    the miners
  • Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid
    disaster)
  • Focus on behavioural change
  • 70-90 of UK population sees climate as a
    significant problem
  • 70-90 sees the government as primarily
    responsible for action
  • Recent adoption of Europe-wide 2020 emissions
    reduction targets but how realistic are they?

6
CLIMATE CHANGE THE US CONTEXT
  • 3 decades of decentralization
  • George Bush Sr the Whitehouse effect
    highlighted (misrepresented) disagreement
  • Prevalence of proportional principle (benefits
    and costs)
  • Greater faith in technological change
  • 60 sees climate as a significant problem
  • Only 40 looks to the Federal government to lead
    response European failure to understand US
    political culture
  • New optimism about Federal leadership

7
GOVERNMENT POLICY CONFLICTS
  • Possible cautionary tale re new optimism in USA
  • The 3 major UK political parties are falling over
    each other to demonstrate their green credentials
  • UK government has set itself a target of 60
    emissions reductions by 2050
  • UK is falling well short of meeting its declared
    goals
  • Personal carbon credits and two new runways
    emergence of carbon governmentality and moral
    posturing who is toughest on profligacy

8
BUT AT LEAST EVERYBODY NOW AGREES…
  • But are they right? Or was Kyoto a case of the
    wrong trousers

9
THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
  • Important symbolic expression of global concern
  • But profoundly flawed as instrumental arrangement
    for achieving emissions reductions (as distinct
    from controls)
  • Was DOA in White House Clinton-Bush transition
    changed climate politics rather than policies
  • Was Bushs repudiation a case of the bad guy
    doing the right thing for the wrong reasons?

10
FAILURE OF THE KYOTO APPROACH
  • Represents 14 years of negotiation only game
    in town
  • 5 targets for industrialized countries have been
    watered down to about 2 in real terms, but are
    still falling short
  • Little realistic assessment of the politics of
    ramping up to 80
  • Has isolated and demonized the USA
  • No viable strategy for engaging India and China
  • Created CDM scams such as HFC combustion
  • No sign of stimulating fundamental technology
    transformation
  • Primarily addresses emissions mitigation not
    climate impacts

11
LIFE AFTER KYOTO?
  • Currently have important window to think about
    the future of climate policy after 2012
  • Increasing recognition of Kyoto shortcomings
  • Emerging new approaches and initiatives but
    could they be derailed?
  • But what can we learn from the history of the
    design of the current climate regime?

12
THREE AVAILABLE MODELS
  • Stratospheric ozone regime
  • Strategic arms reduction treaty
  • EPA Acid Rain Program
  • The first two are typical products of summitry

13
STRATOSPHERIC OZONE REGIME 1985-7
  • Reducing emissions of gases from industrial
    activity
  • Convention protocols approach
  • Targets and timetables
  • Production controls
  • Advised by Ozone Trends Panel scientists
  • But possible dis-analogies include
  • Small number of chemically related gases
  • Handful of producers
  • Availability of technical alternatives
  • Smoking gun Antarctic ozone hole

14
ALTERNATIVE LESSONS FROM THE OZONE REGIME
  • Initial failure of aerosol protocol at Vienna
    led to more rigorous regime simple
    self-interest or science advisory processes?
  • Was Kyoto the necessary analogue of the failed
    aerosol protocol or an avoidable distraction?
  • Kyoto instituted production controls NOT
    emissions controls
  • Cross-national consensus built at
    non-governmental levels UNEP, environmental
    groups, scientific organizations, firms, etc
  • BUT Governments had negative reaction asserted
    top-down control
  • Government fingerprints
  • Intergovernmental not International Panel on
    Climate Change

15
STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATY 1982-91
  • Gore was known primarily as national security
    wonk
  • Problem framed as mutually assured reductions
  • Targets and timetables
  • Monitoring and compliance (harder for adaptation)
  • But possible dis-analogies include
  • Focus on single technology nuclear weapons
  • Warheads under direct government control
  • Only two parties
  • No obvious conflict with economic development
    goals

16
EPA ACID RAIN PROGRAM 1993
  • Tradable SO2 allowances
  • Offered economic efficiencies
  • Required monitoring and compliance
  • But possible dis-analogies include
  • Response to very specific issue of coal
    transportation costs
  • Initial permit allocation by auction
  • Trading in like-for-like gases (SO2) not
    divergent baskets
  • Legally enforceable contracts under one national
    authority

17
THE THREE MODELS COMBINED TO REINFORCE A NARROW
PROBLEM FRAMING
  • Climate change is essentially a problem of
    limiting emissions adaptation has been
    consistent poor cousin
  • Emissions mitigation is a global commons problem
    requiring consensus among 170 countries too
    many cooks!
  • Climate change is a discrete problem that can be
    solved independently of broader development
    imperatives
  • Climate policies should not disrupt economic
    assumptions either development (China) or
    competitiveness (USA)
  • Improvements in scientific understanding will
    lead to policy consensus underestimates role of
    values

18
WICKED PROBLEMS
  • Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as
    characterizing social problems
  • Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public
    health engineering in late 19th early 20th
    centuries with late 20th century urban planning
  • Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics
    natural science with complexities of social
    policy
  • Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity
    value conflicts in modern society

19
CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS
  • Symptoms of deeper problems
  • Little room for trial error learning
  • Lack a clear set of alternative solutions
  • Characterized by contradictory certitudes
  • Involve entrenched interests
  • Persistent insoluble
  • Coping not solving
  • Feasibility not optimality

20
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM
  • UN FCCC objective is to stabilize atmospheric
    greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that
    would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
    interference with the climate system
  • No agreement on meaning of dangerous or
    interference
  • Climate change is a symptom rather than a problem
  • Product of massively overdetermined energy
    industrial system
  • Industrialized world can protect itself through
    adaptation
  • Richer is safer! California earthquakes and
    Florida hurricanes no barrier to migration
  • Poor in marginal environments will suffer first
    more concern with future than present

21
SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY
  • Idea that science compels agreement on action
  • Leads to unattainable expectations of science
    (The Platinum Standard)
  • But, The data never speak they mumble
  • Surfeit of science is indeterminate (eg, US NAPAP)

22
THE REDUCTIONIST TRAP
  • Climate debate is latest manifestation of
    long-running clash of world views
  • Reduces What kind of world do we want? to
    climate climate to CO2 and CO2 to just one
    number 450ppm
  • Carbon pricing becomes the silver bullet

23
ITS THE DEVELOPMENT PATH STUPID… (OH! MIND
THE GAPS!)
24
UNCOMFORTABLE KNOWLEDGE
25
CONFIDENCE IN MODELING
26
ITS STILL THE DEVELOPMENT PATH STUPID…
27
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
  • Kept off climate policy agenda by US China
  • Requires diversified approach by multiple actors
  • Emphasises benefits rather than restraints
  • Focuses on building resilience rather than
    economic efficiency

28
NO TECHNOLOGICAL FIX BUT NO FIX WITHOUT TECHNOLOGY
  • Assumption behind trading is that new energy
    technologies will become more competitive as
    fossil prices rise but where will new
    technologies come from?
  • Reverse global collapse of energy RD funding
    10 countries fund 95 of RD, (new UK government
    investments)
  • Create conditions for accelerated capital
    turnover in energy
  • Focus on energy modernization benefits health
    economic - rather than fossil fuel limitation
    (China EU)
  • Consider benefits of international competition as
    well as cooperation and coercion (EU and USA)
  • Expand technological options including
    geo-engineering the next taboo for climate
    puritans Branson initiatives recognize lack of
    options for aircraft

29
ZEN AND THE ART OF CARBON CYCLE MAINTENANCE
(Rayner Malone 1997)
  • Emphasized importance of learning to manage under
    conditions of ignorance and unpredictability
  • Suggested that diversified strategies would be
    necessary to alter overdetermination of energy
    and industrial systems
  • Specifically
  • Design policy instruments for real world
    conditions rather than make world conform to
    idealized model (a global carbon market)
  • Incorporate climate thinking into routine
    decision processes (now called mainstreaming)
  • Take a regional and local approach to climate
    policy making and implementation (emerging
    bottom-up initiatives)
  • Use a pluralistic approach to decision making
    (most policy thinking still focuses on national
    governments)
  • Direct resources to protect the most vulnerable
    (adaptation still resisted)

30
LIFTING THE TABOO ON ADAPTATION (Pielke, Prins,
Rayner Sarewitz 2007)
  • Unacceptable topic for many years
  • Vulnerability to climate impacts are increasing
    for reasons unrelated to greenhouse gas emissions
  • Present arrangements under Kyoto frame adaptation
    expenditures as costs of failed mitigation
  • Rich countries can avoid paying costs of
    adaptation in poor countries by enhanced
    mitigation efforts
  • Available level of MAFs are desultory
  • Adaptation in developed countries could be part
    of public mobilization strategy

31
TIME TO DITCH KYOTO (Prins Rayner 2007)
  • Clumsy solution using silver buckshot
  • Abandon universalism and focus mitigation efforts
    on the big emitters (Gleneagles Climate Process)
  • Allow genuine emissions markets to evolve from
    the bottom up
  • Make wartime levels of public investment in
    energy technology RDD - 80bn/year for USA
  • Increase investments in adaptation comparable
    to mitigation efforts
  • Work the problem at the appropriate scales
    provinces, states, cities
  • Confront the object and draw nigh obliquely
    Montreal Protocol has had more impact on climate
    than fully implemented Kyoto

32
RAISING CARBOBN COSTS VERSUS LOWERING TECHNOLOGY
COSTS
33
CONCLUSIONS
  • Significant opportunities are opening up for a
    more diversified approach
  • Essential to learn the lessons of premature
    closure
  • Science cannot cut through Gordian policy knots
  • Carbon trading is probably part of the solution,
    but will likely be through bottom-up linking of
    national/regional systems
  • A diversified strategy is desirable to find
    leverage points to change complex overdetermined
    energy/industrial systems
  • Significant new investment in energy and other
    technologies is required
  • A new emphasis on adaptation and geo-engineering
    is essential

34
THE ALTERNATIVE…
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