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The World Bank and Adaptation: Asia

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Opportunities for additional carbon finance through CDM. Much of climate change activity ... Kiribati. Spans cabinet planning to community decision making ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The World Bank and Adaptation: Asia


1
The World Bank and Adaptation Asia the
Pacific AIACC Workshop Philippines Nov 2004
  • Ian Noble
  • The World Bank

2
Adaptation and the World Bank
  • Bank has focused more on mitigation than
    adaptation
  • Why?
  • Opportunities for additional carbon finance
    through CDM
  • Much of climate change activity relies on GEF
    funding until now mostly mitigation
  • Strong synergies with other goals especially
    air quality (indoor outdoor) off grid
    electrification etc
  • Actions
  • Series of reports, culmination in Look Before
    You Leap (Ian Burton Maarten van Aalst)

3
Core Principles
  • Climate risk management approach means that the
    Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon,
    the threats and opportunities that result from
    both existing and future climate variability,
    including those deriving from climate change, in
    all project and country level activities.
  • A Development Perspective on Adaptation means
    that adaptation to climate change is recognized
    as part of the development process and not
    separated from it.
  • The process is country driven and focuses on
    national needs and local priorities.
  • It does not seek to factor benefits into global
    and local,
  • Nor does it seek precise breakdowns of costs into
    baseline and incremental.

4
Adaptation Projects
  • Africa Ecological Systems
  • Analytical methods
  • Cross country comparisons
  • Identify options
  • Near completion
  • Colombia
  • Improving knowledge bases
  • Assessing impacts and options
  • Identifying measures
  • Just starting
  • GEF Special Priority for Adaptation

5
Caribbean Projects
  • CPACC
  • Stage I
  • Capacity Building
  • Instrumentation Monitoring
  • Sharing data information
  • Assessment of current planning
  • MACC
  • Stage II
  • Institution Building
  • Modeling monitoring
  • CIDA activity
  • Initial steps in incorporating adaptation into
    national planning in two countries
  • Current Plans - SPA
  • Tackle interlinkages between the three MEAs
    including adaptation issues
  • Develop institutions, planning and legal
    processes based on sustainable development ideas
    that include adaptation

6
Adaptation Projects
  • Kiribati
  • Spans cabinet planning to community decision
    making
  • Community agreed options priorities
  • Goal an adaptation-aware structural adjustment
    operation
  • India / South Asia
  • National and regional vulnerability assessment
    down to local vulnerability (state and sub-state)
  • Enhanced modelling of impacts
  • Identification of options leading to government
    and local actions
  • Close cooperation with governments of India and
    Second National assessment

7
Models of Adaptation
8
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
9
The conventional view of adaptation
  • Adaptation is an additional cost and thus should
    be funded by those responsible
  • There is a high degree of uncertainty in climate
    projections
  • Form collaborative links with international
    organisations
  • Improve our projections of climate change
  • Identify hot spots
  • Understand traditional coping strategies
  • Build capacity in all sectors
  • Mainstream adaptation into the development
    process

10
Current Adaptation Projects
  • Usual outcome
  • Assess literature
  • Assess current and future vulnerability
  • Increase local forecasting capacity (downscaling)
  • Assess institutional structures
  • Develop adaptation options
  • Costing and prioritizing
  • Implement priorities
  • Monitor and assess outcomes
  • Compare lessons learnt

11
We need to rethink our message
Get on with it!
12
A restated message
  • Based on these major points
  • Urgency - climate change is occurring now
  • Climate variability and change is currently a
    threat to development
  • We know enough about the nature of climate change
    to take sensible decisions about adaptation now
  • A climate risk development perspective approach
  • Can we assess the costs of adaptation?
  • What are the critical next steps?

13
Restated message
  • Urgency message for all governments and all
    sectors
  • Climate change is occurring now
  • We are all affected
  • Early action can avoid many of the impacts
  • The poor are currently, and in the future will
    remain, the most severely affected
  • Why are the poor most vulnerable?
  • Least resources to cope
  • Least resources to adapt and
  • Often live in marginal areas

14
Climate change is a threat to development
  • Improved conditions in some places
  • But for the bulk of the worlds poor, climate
    change will make the daily task of survival even
    more difficult
  • The most important adaptive action is to improve
    the livelihoods of the poor
  • Provide better capacity to cope with current
    pressures not just climate
  • Look ahead at the way that all pressures will
    change in the future
  • Climate change will be an important component of
    those pressures

15
Distribution of cultivated land according to
climate impact on cereal production
capacity, ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple cropping
DEVELOPED
DEVELOPING
Vertical percent of cultivated land Horizontal
cereal impact (percent)
Source Fischer et al., 2002
16
We can act now
  • We will never be able to predict climate with the
    precision that we would like
  • But, we already know enough about the core
    climate trends to make sensible decisions about
    adaptive measures
  • Most actions have to start with current coping
    (in)capacities with current climate variability

17
What will it cost?
  • Adaptation should be only a small part of the
    total development budget,
  • But a part that should largely be paid by the
    developed world.
  • However, if progress on adaptation was to falter
    over prolonged negotiations to identify and fund
    incrementality in adaptation, we will be doing
    the whole development task a great disservice.
  • Beware the quagmire of cost benefit analyses of
    adaptation versus mitigation

18
Adaptation and incrementality (simplified)
GEF Core operations
Current Development current status of the
country Country Responsibility actions required
as part of normal development process Adaptation
Increment additional actions necessitated by
climate change
GEF
Adaptation Increment
Country responsibility
Current Development
19
What are the critical next steps?
  • First, we can always benefit from better
    projections of climate change, but lets not
    allow them be a rationale for inaction in other
    areas

20
What are the critical next steps?
  • We do need capacity building both within
    developing country institutions, but just as much
    in institutions in the developed world and
    especially development agencies
  • But again do not let capacity building become a
    diversion i.e. busy work to keep the work
    programs flowing

21
What are the critical next steps?
  • One of the core capacity building issues is,
    whose capacity?
  • Limited value in training the local
    meteorological department nominee as the climate
    change contact point if,
  • (1) they have little influence beyond their
    department and
  • (2) they will probably rotate out of their
    position within two years. (And I am not just
    talking about developing countries here).

22
What are the critical next steps?
  • Lets be realistic. We are not going to solve
    the whole development conundrum through the
    vehicle of adaptation to climate change.
  • There is an adaptation deficit. Many groups
    are not sufficiently adapted to current climates
    so we start from a long way behind.
  • So focus on a climate risk approach.

23
What are the critical next steps?
  • There is a second adaptation deficit among the
    scientific and technical communities.
  • It is knowledge of how institutions, communities
    and individuals use new information and, in
    particular, forecasts.
  • And especially, how do they respond to
    information forecasts
  • And especially forecasts that will not
    necessarily always be correct and where error
    poses a significant risk,
  • whether it be to your career path within the WB,
    the Indian Civil Service or your life.

24
India South Asia Project
25
We are putting a major effort into India. Why?
  • India matters
  • The number of people in poverty
  • The emissions and future emissions
  • India and China will be major determinants of
    future climate change.
  • India has huge scientific and technical capacity
  • There are huge payoffs for the Bank and GoI in
    getting our respective roles right

26
Have I been able to follow my own advice in India?
  • Extensive consultations with governments and
    other stakeholders (academic, NGOs)
  • Could still do more
  • Build upon the Initial National Assessment and
    feed into Second
  • Focus on agriculture and water sectors
  • Is this too narrow? Too wide?
  • Four components
  • Complete by end 2005

27
India Current coping strategies
  • Component 1 What are the coping strategies of
    populations most affected by current climate
    variability and extremes, how effective are they,
    how are these affected by government policies and
    programs, and can current coping strategies and
    policies be strengthened?
  • Select three areas (c. State size) drought and
    flood affected
  • Review scoping of questions
  • Advisory group and expert panels
  • Case studies and surveys

28
India Tool box
  • Component 2 How is climate projected to change
    at the regional level and what are the projected
    impacts on water resources and agriculture? Which
    regions and community groups are most vulnerable
    to climate induced changes in water resources and
    agriculture, and which coping strategies might
    need to be enhanced or modified to deal with
    projected changes?
  • Revised projections well under way
  • Extension of existing hydrological modelling to
    better deal with human interventions
  • New agricultural modelling

29
Projected impact of climate change on
agricultural outputs (IIASA)
30
India Explore some response options
  • Component 3 What are the most important response
    options available to all institutions, including
    the GoI and the WB but also state regional and
    local institutions, to reduce the vulnerability
    of communities to climate variability and change?
  • Stakeholder consultation to select the range of
    response options to explore
  • Explore them drawing upon the toolbox and the
    expertise built up in developing it
  • Will we have the capacity to consider the
    multiple pressures?
  • Some exploratory costbenefit analysis

31
India Begin to develop good practice guidance
  • Component 4 How and where does climate
    variability and change propose a threat (or
    opportunity) to Bank and other development
    projects, and what constitutes good practice in
    managing these threats and opportunities?
  • Look back of past Bank projects where has
    adaptation been considered/missed
  • Look ahead at pipeline of projects where should
    adaptation be taken into account
  • Indian governments and stakeholders engaged in a
    similar process
  • Begin to build up a body of best practice
    guidance
  • Develop screening and design tool
  • Synthesis of where we have got to short,
    technical and non-technical versions

32
Summary
33
A restated message
  • Based on these major points
  • Urgency - climate change is occurring now
  • Climate change is a threat to development
  • We know enough about the nature of climate change
    to take sensible decisions about adaptation now
  • A climate risk management development
    perspective approach
  • Can we assess the costs of adaptation?
  • What are the critical next steps?

34
Core Principles
  • Climate risk management approach means that the
    Bank should assess, and where necessary act upon,
    the threats and opportunities that result from
    both existing and future climate variability,
    including those deriving from climate change, in
    all project and country level activities.
  • A Development Perspective on Adaptation means
    that adaptation to climate change is recognized
    as part of the development process and not
    separated from it.
  • The process is country driven and focuses on
    national needs and local priorities.
  • It does not seek to factor benefits into global
    and local,
  • Nor does it seek precise breakdowns of costs into
    baseline and incremental.

35
Will it work?
36
What would be the measures of it working?
  • We dont aim to have adaptation projects on the
    ground
  • We do aim to influence existing development plans
  • But can that be demonstrated?
  • And, if we do have that influence, was it a
    useful one?
  • And if it was useful, was it the best we could
    have done?

37
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