Alex%20Burns%20([e-mail])

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Communication Futures

• Alex Burns (aburns_at_swin.edu.au)
• 20 April 2006
• Smart Internet Technology CRC

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Agenda

• Part 1 Communication Futures (CF)
• History
• Discourse Futures Studies (FS) and Applied
  Foresight (AF)
• Contexts and Frameworks
• Part 2 Methodologies
• Individual methodologies and practices
• Part 3 Applications
• Part 4 Professional Development
• Professional Development issues

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Part 1 Foundations
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Why Study The Future?

• Foreseeable Dangers and Mega-Events
• Challenger space shuttle disaster (Roger
  Boisjoly)
• Enron and corporate governance (Sherron Watkins)
• September 11 and counter-terrorism (John ONeill)
• Cassandra Archetype early warnings yet ignored
• ICT History and Future Visions
• J.C.R. Licklider and human-machine symbiosis
• Doug Engelbart and interface design (GUI)
• Ted Nelson and Xanadu
• Tim Berners-Lee and the Semantic Web

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Challenger Launch Decision

• Roger Boisjoly discovers leaks in primary seals.
  Morton Thiokol pressure about O-ring warning
  (Jan. 1986)
• NASA and Morton Thiokol engineers discuss
  temperature forecasts. NASA over-rides no
  launch decision (27 Jan. 1986)
• At T73 seconds Challenger explodeskilling all 7
  crew members (28 Jan. 1986)

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Sherron Watkins Enron

• Warned Enrons Kenneth Lay of an elaborate
  accounting hoax (15 Aug. 2001)
• Enron files for Chapter 11 (2 Dec. 2001)
• Individual investors lose millions, Arthur
  Andersen collapses
• Corporate Governance and Triple Bottom Line (TBL)
• The Smartest Guys In The Room (2005) book and
  film
• A Conspiracy of Fools (2005)

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John ONeill Al Qaeda

• FBI began tracking Al Qaeda in mid-1990s
• Investigated first WTC (1993) and USS Cole (2000)
  bombings
• Warned US Government of global terror networks
• May have prevented September 11 terrorist attacks
  on United States
• PBS Frontline episode The Man Who Knew

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Anticipatory Not Predictive

• Futures Studies is popularly believed to be about
  prediction
• Retro-causal (what if?) rather than predictive
  (this will happen by x)
• The cause lies in the future Heinz von
  Foerster
• Future possibility space to consider
  implications for now
• Conjectural thinking about evaluated
  possibilities (Bertrand de Jouvenal)
• The sense of context to model different choices
  (Mihai Nadin) our sixth sense (Kees van der
  Heijden)
• Epistemology (ways of knowing) becomes crucial

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Strategic Foresight and Futures Studies

• Strategic Foresight
• The ability to create and maintain a
  high-quality, coherent, and viable forward view
  whose insights can be used in organizationally
  useful ways. (Richard Slaughter, Swinburne
  University)
• Critical Futures Studies
• The attempt to generate new knowledge about the
  construction of human futures. (Richard
  Slaughter, Swinburne University)
• A type of transdisciplinary strategic thinking
  rather than traditional strategic planning (links
  with Governance and Knowledge Management)
• Futures Studies is not crystal ball-gazing, pop
  imagery or linear extrapolations
• Goes beyond future of . . . studies and
  single-point forecasts

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Futures Studies Introductory Examples

• The following are introduced early on in
  Swinburne Universitys Strategic Foresight
  program
• The 200-Year Present (Elise Boulding)
• The Futures Cone possible, probable and
  preferable futures
• The Clock of the Long Now (Stewart Brand)
• The Calvert-Henderson indicators (Hazel
  Henderson)
• Tsunamis of Change (Jim Dator)
• Mindsets open versus closed thinking (Milton
  Rokeach)
• The sustainability ethic as an FS practical realm

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Futures Studies Key Texts

• The following are often used in Swinburne
  Universitys Strategic Foresight program
• Richard Slaughters Futures Beyond Dystopia
  (2004) and Futures for the Third Millennium
  (1999)
• The multi-volume Knowledge Base of Futures
  Studies (3rd edition on CD in 2005) edited by
  Slaughter, Sohail Inyatullah Jose M. Ramos
• Sohail Inayatullahs Questioning The Future (2nd
  edition, 2005)
• Peter Schwartzs The Art of the Long View (1991)
  on scenarios
• Peter Senges The Fifth Discipline (1990) on
  systems thinking
• Ken Wilbers A Theory of Everything (2001)

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Communication Futures Definition

• Interdisciplinary discourse to examine ICT
  strategic landscape
• A strategic context and problem domain that draws
  on Futures Studies (theory) and Applied/Strategic
  Foresight (application)
• Places activities in forward-looking context
• Inputs to corporate strategy and policymaking
  cycles
• Major themes
• The evolution of socio-technical systems
• Technology trajectories and their social impacts
• Responses by societies, culture and political
  actors

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Communication Futures Key Studies

• Influential CF Studies
• SIT CRCs Smart Internet 2010 report (2005)
• ACAs Vision 2020 scenarios exercise (2004)
• Networking the Nation (1997)
• Networking Australias Future (1994)
• Telecom Australias Telecom 2000 Report (1975)
• Policy Briefs (Communication Futures Futures
  Studies)
• DCITAs Digital Action Plan for Australia (2006)
• Communications Policy Research Forum
• Australian Treasurys Inter-generational Report
  (2002-2003)
• CSIRO National Energy Scenarios

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Technology Foresight

• Technology Foresight
• Domain application of national Science
  Technology Foresight
• Mobilisation for ICT sectoral development
• Builds collective vision and social imaging for
  growth
• Regional trade blocs and comparative advantage
  (David Ricardo)
• Battelle Science Technology
• Singapore Infocomm Foresight 2015
• Malaysia Multimedia Corridor
• OECD Foresight Forum

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Major Institutions

• Big Science Bell Laboratories, NASA space
  program, Atlas rockets, ARPANET, Human Genome
  Project
• Defence and Civil Society Planning RAND and
  Hudson Institutes (Herman Kahn on nuclear war
  thinking about the unthinkable), Arlington
  Institute, Institute for the Future, Global
  Business Network
• Technology Research Xerox PARC, MIT Media Lab,
  ATT Labs, Microsoft Research, BT, Google Labs
• Thomas P. Hughes Rescuing Cassandra (1998) as
  key study
• Stewart Brands The Media Lab (1987) on MITs
  initiatives
• Michael Hiltziks Dealers of Lightning (1999) on
  Xerox PARC

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Contexts and Frameworks Overview

• Three introductory paradigms
• Normative pragmatic, goal-directed, conventional
  planning
• Critical evaluates agendas, norms, values and
  worldviews
• Emancipatory idealist and identity, oppositional
  to normative
• Three CF outlooks (Warren Wagar)
• Techno-liberal (libertarian and free
  enterprise)
• Radicals (Democratic Left and Social Marxist)
• Countercultural (New Age and Eco-feminist)
• Each gives a true but partial map of reality
  (Ken Wilber) however, the map is not the
  territory (Alfred Korzybski)

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Framework 1 Pragmatic Futures

• Dominant context in Western Futures Studies work
• The norm for business and commercial applications
• Timeframe 3-5 years
• Knowledge Interests Technical-Instrumental
• Discourses Methodologies Trends, Environmental
  Scanning, Scenario Planning, Business
  Intelligence
• Example Book Gary Hamel and C.K. Prahalads
  Competing for the Future (1995)

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Framework 2 Progressive Futures

• Emerged in late 1960s and early 1970s in the West
• The norm for academic applications in
  arts/humanities and post-normal science (Jerry
  Ravetz)
• Timeframe 20-50 years and longer
• Knowledge Interests Emancipatory
• Discourses Methodologies Critical Futures
  Studies, Science Technology Studies,
  Simulations, Systems Thinking
• Example Book Hazel Hendersons Building A
  Win-Win World Life Beyond Global Economic
  Warfare (1996)

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Framework 3 Alternative Global Futures

• Emerged in late 1970s and 1980s in the West
• Anthropological, cross-cultural, post-colonial
  and postmodernist
• Timeframe 50-100 years and longer
• Knowledge Interests Emancipatory, Multitude
• Discourses Methodologies Causal Layered
  Analysis, Anticipatory Action Research and
  Anthroplogy, Post-Colonial Studies
• Example Book Ziauddin Sardars Rescuing All Our
  Futures The Future of Futures Studies anthology
  (1999)

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Framework 4 Civilisational Futures

• Cyclical themes from 1960s to present
• Deals with civilisations, cultural scripts,
  social imaging
• Timeframe 100 years, cyclical/spiral models of
  temporality
• Knowledge Interests Deep Time, Gaian,
  Macrohistorical, Dominator/Partnership paradigm
  (Riane Eisler)
• Discourses Methodologies Causal Layered
  Analysis, Social Imaging, Macrohistorical, Peace
  Studies, Deep Ecology
• Example Book Johan Galtung and Sohail
  Inayatullahs Macrohistory and Macrohistorians
  (1997)

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Framework 4 Integral Futures

• Cyclical themes from 1960s to present
• Breadth and depth, different ways of knowing,
  transcend yet include, All quadrants all levels
  (AQAL)
• Timeframe The extended Now
• Knowledge Interests Transpersonal, Integrative,
  Pluralistic
• Discourses Methodologies Transpersonal and
  Integral Psychology, Integral Methodological
  Pluralism, Metascanning, Contemplative/Meditative
  practices
• Example Book Ken Wilbers Sex Ecology
  Spirituality (1995) and Integral Psychology (1998)

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Framework 5 Embodied Foresight

• Has emerged over 2003-2006 as novelty and
  synthesis
• Meta-methodology Individual practitioner as
  holonomic
• Timeframe Self-reflexive awareness of the
  Aion/Aeon
• Knowledge Interests Anticipatory, Enactive,
  Self-Reflexive
• Discourses Methodologies Anticipatory Action
  Learning, Enactive Cognition, Integral Futures,
  Self-Reflexive methods, Trialogues, Presence
• Example Book Senge, Scharmer, Jaworski and
  Flowers Presence Human Purpose and the Field of
  the Future (2004)

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Part 2 Methodologies
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Methodology History

• 1950s Forecasts Trends Analysis
• 1960s Delphi Method Social Indicators
• 1970s Global Forecasts Systems Models
• 1980s Scenarios Risk Management
• 1990s Layered Depth Methods
• 2000s Integral, Multi-Civilizational Embodied

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Strategic Landscape

• Defined by critical uncertainties, compounded
  risks and systemic crises (Ulrich Beck, Anthony
  Giddens, Zygmunt Bauman, Arjun Appuradai)
• Risk as defining factor in globalisation (Beck)
• Structuration model of agency-structure debate
  (Giddens)
• Liquid modernity and reconnaissance zones
  (Bauman)
• Socio-, techno- flows (Appuradai)
• Neo-liberal globalization, deregulation and
  privatization
• Information is bound up in uncertainty (Norbert
  Wiener)
• Knowns, known unknowns unknown unknowns
  (Donald Rumsfeld on the 2003 Iraq War and WMD
  debate)
• Hardin Tibbs model of business insight and
  competition

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Taxonomy of Futures Methods

• Predictive (expertise and colonization)
• Forecasting (linear/extrapolative), Trends,
  Data-Mining, Simulations, Delphi Method, Social
  Indicators, Inevitable Surprises (Ageing,
  Demographics, the Realist tradition in
  Geopolitics), Technology Mapping, Pattern
  Recognition
• Interpretative (agency, structure,
  relationship)
• Environmental Scanning, Scenarios
  (technology/user), Technology Assessment,
  Strategic Anticipation, National Science
  Technology exercises, Business Intelligence,
  Blind-Spot Analysis, Wild Cards (high impact low
  probability events), Visioning
• Critical (undefining the future by questioning
  assumptions)
• Causal Layered Analysis, Critical Futures
  Studies, T-Cycle, Macrohistory, Integral Studies,
  Action Learning

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Methodological Issues

• Futures Studies has a transdisciplinary knowledge
  base
• Potentially an infinite toolkit of resources
  (Richard Slaughter)
• Integral Methodological Pluralism as framework
  (Ken Wilber)
• The emergence of meta-methodologies
• Methodological renewal as an imperative
  (Richard Slaughter)
• Challenges
• Difference between method, methodology, process,
  and practice
• Role of commercial interests and secrecy
• Cultural transmission of methodologies between
  practitioners
• True Believer (Eric Hoffer) interpretation that
  frames specific methodologies as the solution to
  problem domain

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Creativity Techniques

• Problem domain application of Applied Foresight
• Synergies with humour, pattern recognition,
  visualisation
• Lateral Thinking, Six Thinking Hats, Po (Edward
  de Bono)
• Mind Mapping (Tony and Barry Buzan)
• Synectics (William J.J. Gordon)
• Brainstorming and Concept Mapping
• Multiple Intelligences (Howard Gardner)
• Flow states of optimal psychology (Mihaly
  Csikzentmihalyi)

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Forecasting and Trends

• Forecasting developed in 1940s and 1950s
• Econometrics linear, extrapolative, time-series,
  statistical
• Trends developed in 1950s and 1960s
• 3-5 year time-span rather than fads
• Social Indicators movement in 1960s sociology
• Cross-impacts, social impacts
• Applications
• Demographic/psychographic profiling and
  data-mining
• SRIs Values and Lifestyles monitor (VALS II)
• John Naisbitts Megatrends (1982)
• Alvin Tofflers Future Shock (1970) and The Third
  Wave (1980)

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Environmental Scanning

• Environmental Scanning developed in 1960s and
  1970s
• Links to business strategy, portfolio management,
  competitive intelligence and media monitoring
• Organisational ability to track external signals
  and hits
• Swinburne Foresight Planning Review (FPR)
• Established in 2000 to conduct university-wide ES
• 15 to 20-year timeframe long-term trends and
  impacts
• Maree Conway (www.universityfutures.org) was FPR
  head
• Major scenario planning exercise (2002) on higher
  education
• Prospect bulletin, scanning hits database and
  workshops
• Replaced by Strategic Planning and Quality (SPQ)
  Unit in 2005
• Statement of Direction 2015 (Swinburne)

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Wild Cards

• High impact low probability events (i.e. deals
  with blind-spots, warning signals)
• Can be foreseen pre-September 11 intelligence
  hearings
• Surfaces blind-spots and assumptions in trends
  analysis
• Popularised by Arlington Institute and John
  Petersens Out of the Blue (1999)
• Links to Becks risk sociology, chaos/complexity
  sciences, simulations and systems thinking
• Used to test decision-making under stress and in
  high-velocity environments (Cass R. Sunstein)

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Scenario Planning

• Different models in early 1960s, early 1970s and
  1980s
• Synonymous with Futures Studies and Visioning for
  many
• Key figures Herman Kahn, Pierre Wack, Peter
  Schwartz
• Popularised by the Global Business Network, Royal
  Dutch Shells unit and Schwartzs Art of the Long
  View (1991)
• Extended by Art Kleiner, Stewart Brand and Jay
  Ogilvy
• Different traditions Prospective (France), ICT
  Use Cases
• Problems GBNs scenario logics deal with 2-3 key
  factors, chaos/complexity models are a challenge,
  groupthink (Irving Janis), mirroring, ethical
  dimensions in application

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GBNs Scenario Planning Process

• 1. Identify the focal issue or decision
• 2. Identify key forces, trends and scanning
  hits
• 3. List the driving forces
• 4. Rank key factors driving forces by
  importance and uncertainty (choose 2 or 3 that
  will form 2x2 axis)
• 5. Select scenario logics create axes for key
  factors
• 6. Flesh out the scenarios narratives
• 7. Explore implications, assumptions, blind-spots
• 8. Select leading indicators and signposts

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Causal Layered Analysis

• Developed by Sohail Inayatullah in the
  early-to-mid 1990s
• Post-structuralist theory of knowledge (Michel
  Foucault, William Irwin Thompson, P.R. Sarkar,
  Fred Polak and others)
• Useful to surface hidden assumptions and
  current frameworks
• Can be used to evaluate and validate scenario
  logics and narratives provides vertical depth
  to horizontal tools
• Four layers
• Pop litany, sound-bites, media imagery
• Social Causes problem-oriented analysis and
  policy
• Epistemes/Worldviews ways of knowing, truth and
  values
• Myth/Metaphor Deep symbols, narratives and
  structures

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Simulations

• Developed with computers in 1960s and 1970s
• Jay Forresters work on systems dynamics as
  pivotal influence
• Donella and Dennis Meadows World-3 model in The
  Limits To Growth (1972) created controversy for
  The Club of Rome
• Domain applications in econometric modelling,
  environmental sustainability, financial services
• Adopted by business for innovation and war games
• Michael Schrages Serious Play (2000) on
  innovation cases
• Videogame designers Will Wright (Sim City and
  The Sims), Sid Meier (Civilization), Peter
  Molyneux (Black White)

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Systems Thinking

• Deals with large-scale complexity, emergent
  behaviour, interdependencies, whole-systems
  views, cybernetics
• Links with action learning and simulations
• Surfaces assumptions, mental models and
  cause-effect relationships (balancing and
  reinforcing loops)
• Ludwig van Bertalanffys General Systems Thinking
  (1968)
• Popularised by Peter Senges The Fifth Discipline
  (1990) which also dealt with action learning and
  organisations
• Systems archetypes such as overshoot and
  collapse, shifting the burden, fixes that
  fail, escalation, accidental adversaries and
  Tragedy of the Commons

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Action Learning

• Has evolved from anthropology, cybernetics,
  education
• Adopted in MBA and postgraduate programs as
  pedagogy
• Concerned with learning how to learn and
  knowledge transfer
• Theory Action Review cycles (aka Kolb learning
  loop)
• Skills unconscious incompetence, conscious
  incompetence and conscious competence (Argyris)
• Key figures David Kolb, Donald Schon, Chris
  Argyris, Humberto Maturana, Francisco Varela,
  Peter Senge, Otto Scharmer
• Enactive Cognition consciousness model (Maturana
  Varela) All knowing is doing and all doing is
  knowing

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Macrohistory

• Histories of social systems, patterns of change
  (nomothetic, diachronic) individual, social,
  civilisational, world-systems
• Deep structure models of what changes and what
  doesnt
• Linear, cyclical and spiral metaphors/models of
  temporality
• Johan Galtung and Sohail Inayatullahs
  Macrohistory and Macrohistorians (1997) compares
  20 macrohistorians
• Exploration of different cultural-historical
  epistemes
• Each can be used to isolate key variables for
  discussion
• Imposes limits on what can be created in the
  future

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Part 3 Applications
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Yourdon, Edward. Death March (2nd ed.), Prentice
Hall PTR, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2003.
Death March projects The norm for IT not the
exception High-profile BHAG projects Budget,
resource estimation limits Unrealistic
deadlines by 2x or more Critical Chain and
Systems Thinking Project flight simulators
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Disruptive Technologies

• Professor at Harvard University and founder of
  the consulting firm Innosight LLC
• Thought leader on Disruptive Innovation
• Promoted by Intels Andrew S. Grove
• Author of The Innovators Dilemma (1999), The
  Innovators Solution (2003), and Seeing Whats
  Next (2004)
• Focuses on industry and market analysis
• Disruptive vs. Sustaining Technologies
• Applies insights to e-health, financial services,
  and telecommunications domains
• Deals with firm resources allocation and
  decision-making, not just killer app
  technologies

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Pattern Recognition

• Mercers Adrian Slywotzky has collated over 20
  generic patterns in Value Migration (1996),
  Profit Patterns (1998) and subsequent books
• Pattern Recognition and learning how to learn
• Business Designs a totality of customer
  selection, market positioning, business processes
  and profit capture
• Challenges the idea that markets/industries are
  caught in macro patterns such as
  Disintermediation value networks are fluid,
  signalling, counter-moves
• Provides a context to integrate environmental
  scanning and organisational learning
• Applied in financial services as Strategic
  Anticipation

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Augustine, Sanjiv. Managing Agile Projects,
Addison Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005.

• Agile Project Management rules
• Organic Teams
• Guiding Vision
• Simple Rules
• Open Information
• Light Touch
• Adaptive Leadership

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Cockburn, Alistair. Crystal Clear, Addison
Wesley, Upper Saddle River NJ, 2005.

• A methodology for small teams
• Frequent Delivery
• Reflective Improvement
• Osmotic Communication
• Personal Safety
• Focus
• Easy Access to Expert Users
• A Technical Environment with Automated Tests,
  Configuration Management, and Frequent Integration

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Part 4 Professional Development
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University Postgraduate Courses

• Postgraduate programs
• Swinburne University of Technology
• Sunshine Coast University
• Central Queensland University
• Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of
  Sydney
• Tamkang University (Taiwan)
• University of Houston, Clear Lake (US)
• Manoa school at University of Hawaii (US)
• Survey of Futures in Higher Education (2003) by
  Jose M. Ramos (Swinburne University alumnus, WFSF)

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Professional Organisations

• Futures Studies has several professional
  organisations
• World Future Society (WFS) US-based, pragmatic,
  technology, 50,000 members at peak in late 1980s
• World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) diverse
  global membership, critical/emancipatory and
  civilisational, several hundred members
• Association of Professional Futurists (APF)
  US-based, spearheaded by Dows Andy Hines,
  professional development
• Swinburne Universitys AFI Alumni group

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Professional Models

• Professional certification in specific methods
• Proprietary-based, e.g. GBNs scenarios
  methodology
• European classical model of study with Teacher
• Access to domain experience and insights
• Often reflects the Critical/Emancipatory
  tradition in FS
• Medieval Guild model of professional development
• Closer to an artistic craft than an empirical
  science
• Novice, Journeyman and Master phases
• Links to Action and Self-Reflexive modes of
  research

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Professional Qualities

• Communications Futures practitioners will
  hopefully develop the following professional
  qualities
• Cognitive complexity and pattern recognition
• Insights grounded in both intellectual inquiry
  and practice
• Appreciative inquiry, multiple intelligences,
  ways of knowing
• Radical doubt and conscientization (Paulo Freire)
• Can deal with ambiguous information without
  polarisation
• Self-reflexive awareness of biases and
  blind-spots
• Awareness of the knowing-doing gap, groupthink,
  mirroring

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Questions?