Title: Project Constellation Development Planning Task Team Workshop I Outbrief
1Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
Cost Estimating in the Vision for Space
Exploration
Frank A. (Andy) Prince Program Analysis
Evaluation April 12, 2005
2Presentation Outline
- The Vision for Space Exploration
- The Affordability Challenge for Exploration
- Cost Estimating to Meet the Challenge
3The Vision for Space Exploration
THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE
U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST
THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM
Implement a sustained and affordable human and
robotic program to explore the solar system and
beyond Extend human presence across the solar
system, starting with a human return to the Moon
by the year 2020, in preparation for human
exploration of Mars and other destinations Develo
p the innovative technologies, knowledge, and
infrastructures both to explore and to support
decisions about the destinations for human
exploration and Promote international and
commercial participation in exploration to
further U.S. scientific, security, and economic
interests.
4Realizing the Future Earth, Moon, Mars, and Beyond
- Foster and sustain the exploration culture across
generations - Open new frontiers
- Continuing and inspiring
- A constant impetus to educate and train
- Identify, develop, and apply advanced
technologies to - Enable exploration and discovery
- Allow the public to actively participate in the
journey - Translate the benefits of these technologies to
improve life on Earth - Harness the brain power
- Engage the nations science and engineering
assets - Motivate successive generations of students to
pursue science, math, engineering and technology - Create the tools to facilitate broad national
technical participation - International Cooperation
- Promote common objectives and cooperative/compleme
ntary efforts for space exploration - Utilize international capabilities to help close
capability gaps and develop breakthrough
technologies
5Sustaining the Vision
- How do you sustain the funding and support for
the Vision during 30 budget cycles, 8
presidential elections, and many congresses? - Have a united front from Internal NASA, Industry,
Academia, Researcher, Scientific and Engineering
Communities - Develop clear and consistent message
- Engage broader communities
- Deliver on commitments / responsible stewards of
taxpayer money - Educate, inspire, and motivate the public
6Vision for Space ExplorationKey Presidential
Direction
- 1. Return the Shuttle to safe flight as soon as
practical, based on CAIB recommendations - 2. Use Shuttle to complete ISS assembly
- 3. Retire the Shuttle after assembly complete
(2010 target) - 4. Focus ISS research to support exploration
goals understanding space environment and
countermeasures - 5. Meet foreign commitments
- 6. Undertake lunar exploration to support
sustained human and robotic exploration of Mars
and beyond - 7. Series of robotic missions to Moon by 2008 to
prepare for human exploration - 8. Expedition to lunar surface as early as 2015
but no later than 2020 - 9. Use lunar activities to further science, and
test approaches (including lunar resources) for
exploration to Mars beyond - 10. Conduct robotic exploration of Mars to
prepare for future expedition - 11. Conduct robotic exploration across solar
system to search for life, understand history of
universe, search for resources - 12. Conduct advanced telescope searches for
habitable environments around other stars - 13. Demonstrate power, propulsion, life support
capabilities for long duration, more distant
human and robotic missions - 14. Conduct human expeditions to Mars after
acquiring adequate knowledge and capability
demonstrations - 15. Develop a new Crew Exploration Vehicle
flight test before end of decade human
exploration capability by 2014 - Separate cargo from crew as soon as practical to
support ISS acquire crew transport to ISS after
Shuttle retirement - Pursue international participation
- Pursue commercial opportunity for transportation
and other services
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8 Exploration Systems ImplementationKey Objectives
Milestones
- Objectives
- Implement a sustained and affordable human and
robotic program - Extend human presence across the solar system and
beyond - Develop supporting innovative technologies,
knowledge, and infrastructures - Promote international and commercial
participation in exploration - Major Milestones
- 2008 Initial flight test of CEV
- 2008 Launch first lunar robotic orbiter
- 2009-2010 Robotic mission to lunar surface
- 2011 First Uncrewed CEV flight
- 2014 First crewed CEV flight
- 2012-2015 Jupiter Icy Moon Orbiter
(JIMO)/Prometheus - 2015-2020 First human mission to the Moon
9Preparing for Mars Exploration
- Moon as a test bed to reduce risk for future
human Mars missions - Technology advancement reduces mission costs and
supportsexpanded human exploration - Systems testing and technology test beds to
develop reliability in harsh environments. - Expand mission and science surface operations
experience and techniques - Human and machine collaboration Machines serve
as an extension of human explorers, together
achieving more than either can do alone - Breaking the bonds of dependence on Earth
(e.g./Life Science/Closed loop life support
tests) - Power generation and propulsion development and
testing - Common investments in hardware systems for Moon,
Mars and other space objectives
10Building on Lessons Learned
- Task
- Develop a consolidated database of lessons
learned from human and robotic mission
experience. Sample review areas - Space Station / Shuttle
- CAIB / Challenger report
- Previous NASA reviews
- Etc.
- Actions
- Initiated task with Systems Management Office at
Langley Research Center. Topic areas defined to
include - Cultural Issues
- Programmatic considerations
- Technical/Engineering considerations
- Communications
- Ground Operations
- Risk Assessment
11Building on Past Findings
- Packard Commission Findings
- Get operators and technologists together to
enable the leveraging of cost-performance trades - Apply technology to lower cost of system, not
just to increase its performance - Mature technology prior to entering engineering
and systems development - Partnerships with Industry to identify innovative
solutions - Report of the DSB/AFSAB (Young Report)
- Requirements definition and control are dominant
drivers of cost, schedule, and risk in space
systems development programs
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13NASA Transformation
- Presidents Commission on Space Exploration
Policy - NASA needs to transform itself into a leaner,
more focused agency - Administrator OKeefe Announces New Organization
Structure - align Headquarters to eliminate stove pipes,
promote synergy across the agency and support the
long term exploration vision in a way thats
sustainable and affordable. - Transforms Strategic Enterprises into Mission
Directorates - Aeronautics Research Research and develop
aeronautical technologies for safe, reliable and
efficient aviation systems - Science Carry out the scientific exploration of
the Earth, Moon, Mars and beyond chart the best
route of discovery and reap the benefits of
Earth and space exploration for society - Space Operations Direct space flight
operations, space launches and space
communications, as well as the operation of
integrated systems in low-Earth orbit and beyond - Exploration Systems Develops capabilities and
supporting research and technology that enable
sustained and affordable human and robotic
exploration includes the biological and physical
research necessary to ensure the health and
safety of crew during long duration space flight
14CEV Development Acquisition
An Illustration of Transformation
NASA Concept Exploration Requirements
Development
- Level 1 Requirements
- Technical Solutions
- Technology Gaps
- Cost Estimates
- Risks
- Sustainability Issues
- etc.
Andrews Space
Boeing
Draper Labs
CEV Concept Exploration and Refinement
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Orbital Sciences
Schafer
t-Space
Risk Reduction Demo
1st Human Flt
PDR
SRR
CDR
Study
Request for Proposal
Design
Design
Build, Test Launch
Study
Design
2014
2008
2005
2006
Test Flights
Technology Infusion
15The Affordability Challenge
- Apollo
- Schedule Driven
- Competitive Environment
- No Human Spaceflight Experience
- Need Driven Technology Push
- Exploration Vision
- Schedule Flexibility
- Sustain/Educate/Deliver
- 40 Years of Human Spaceflight
- Technology Enables Affordability
Key Differences
Apollo 11
1st Lunar Mission
1st Human Flight
Risk Reduction Demo
CEV Demo
16Response to the Challenge
ESMD Estimating Needs
ESMD Acquisition Process
Requirements Development
Concept Exploration
Performance Management
Budget Formulation
Current State of the Practice
Simulation Based Acquisition
Analysis of Alternatives
Policy and Processes Personnel Development Capabil
ity Improvement
Communicate! Communicate! Communicate!
Are We Having The Desired Effect?
- Stakeholders
- ESMD Management
- Cost Estimating Community
Feedback
17Personnel Development
- NASA Cost Estimator Career Plan
- Training
- Knowledge
- Experience
- Working Jointly with OCFO Cost Analysis Division,
OCE, and others to Develop Plan Qualification
Process - Schedule Currently being Revised
- Competency Levels
- Entry
- Journey
- Senior
- Executive
18Capability Improvement
ESMD Cost Estimating Needs and Requirements
Inventory Current Tools, Models, and Data Bases
This is where we are Today
Implement and Validate
Identify Gaps and Weaknesses
- Technomics Study
- Cost IDT Assessment
- Simulation Based Acquisition
Define and Procure Necessary Resources
Translate into Strategy and Requirements
19Status of NASA Tools Models
Note Capability as Measured Against ESMD
Estimating Needs
20ESMD Capability Improvement Initiatives
Note ESMD is Partnering with the OCFO Cost
Analysis Div.
- Addressing Gaps
- Lead Systems Integrator Cost Model
- Mission Operations Cost Model
- Improving Existing Capabilities
- Hardware Model Improvements
- Software Data Collection Modeling
- Data Collection Analysis
- ISS Data Collection
- Inventory of NASA Data
Funding is Available and Procurements are being
Initiated
21ESMD Cost Policy Process
- Goal Credible Total Ownership Cost Estimates
- Support Requirements Development, Acquisition
Milestones, Estimates at Completion, etc. - Validated by Independent, Outside Estimates i.e.
DOD CAIG - Create a Learning Culture
- Policy Process Documented in Program Management
Handbook - Policy Supports Acquisition Milestones, EVM
Implementation, and 7120.5c - Forming Outside Review Panel
- Experts from Aerospace, RAND, DOD CAIG, etc.
- Independent Check on Estimates, Processes, and
Improvement Initiatives
22ESMD Hot Cost Activities
- Spiral 1 Milestone A Independent Cost Assessment
- Spiral 1 Concept Review
- Launch Vehicle/Lunar Mission Architecture
Analysis of Alternatives - SEI RFP Independent Government Cost Estimate
- Simulation Based Acquisition Cost Estimating and
Analysis Strategy
23Summary
- The Vision for Space Exploration is NASAs Future
- ESMD is Substantially Changing the Way NASA Does
Business by Infusing Management Rigor,
Consistency of Purpose, and Disciplined Processes - Key Implementation Challenges
- Sustainability
- Affordability
- ESMD is Transforming NASA Cost Estimating to Meet
the Challenge