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Project Constellation Development Planning Task Team Workshop I Outbrief

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11. Conduct robotic exploration across solar system to search ... Apollo 11. Apollo. Schedule Driven. Competitive Environment. No Human Spaceflight Experience ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Project Constellation Development Planning Task Team Workshop I Outbrief


1
Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
Cost Estimating in the Vision for Space
Exploration
Frank A. (Andy) Prince Program Analysis
Evaluation April 12, 2005
2
Presentation Outline
  • The Vision for Space Exploration
  • The Affordability Challenge for Exploration
  • Cost Estimating to Meet the Challenge

3
The Vision for Space Exploration
THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE
U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST
THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM
Implement a sustained and affordable human and
robotic program to explore the solar system and
beyond Extend human presence across the solar
system, starting with a human return to the Moon
by the year 2020, in preparation for human
exploration of Mars and other destinations Develo
p the innovative technologies, knowledge, and
infrastructures both to explore and to support
decisions about the destinations for human
exploration and Promote international and
commercial participation in exploration to
further U.S. scientific, security, and economic
interests.
4
Realizing the Future Earth, Moon, Mars, and Beyond
  • Foster and sustain the exploration culture across
    generations
  • Open new frontiers
  • Continuing and inspiring
  • A constant impetus to educate and train
  • Identify, develop, and apply advanced
    technologies to…
  • Enable exploration and discovery
  • Allow the public to actively participate in the
    journey
  • Translate the benefits of these technologies to
    improve life on Earth
  • Harness the brain power
  • Engage the nations science and engineering
    assets
  • Motivate successive generations of students to
    pursue science, math, engineering and technology
  • Create the tools to facilitate broad national
    technical participation
  • International Cooperation
  • Promote common objectives and cooperative/compleme
    ntary efforts for space exploration
  • Utilize international capabilities to help close
    capability gaps and develop breakthrough
    technologies

5
Sustaining the Vision
  • How do you sustain the funding and support for
    the Vision during 30 budget cycles, 8
    presidential elections, and many congresses?
  • Have a united front from Internal NASA, Industry,
    Academia, Researcher, Scientific and Engineering
    Communities
  • Develop clear and consistent message
  • Engage broader communities
  • Deliver on commitments / responsible stewards of
    taxpayer money
  • Educate, inspire, and motivate the public

6
Vision for Space Exploration Key Presidential
Direction
  • 1. Return the Shuttle to safe flight as soon as
    practical, based on CAIB recommendations
  • 2. Use Shuttle to complete ISS assembly 
  • 3. Retire the Shuttle after assembly complete
    (2010 target) 
  • 4. Focus ISS research to support exploration
    goals understanding space environment and
    countermeasures 
  • 5. Meet foreign commitments 
  • 6. Undertake lunar exploration to support
    sustained human and robotic exploration of Mars
    and beyond
  • 7. Series of robotic missions to Moon by 2008 to
    prepare for human exploration
  • 8. Expedition to lunar surface as early as 2015
    but no later than 2020 
  • 9. Use lunar activities to further science, and
    test approaches (including lunar resources) for
    exploration to Mars  beyond
  • 10. Conduct robotic exploration of Mars to
    prepare for future expedition 
  • 11. Conduct robotic exploration across solar
    system to search for life, understand history of
    universe, search for resources
  • 12. Conduct advanced telescope searches for
    habitable environments around other stars
  • 13. Demonstrate power, propulsion, life support
    capabilities for long duration, more distant
    human and robotic missions
  • 14. Conduct human expeditions to Mars after
    acquiring adequate knowledge and capability
    demonstrations
  • 15. Develop a new Crew Exploration Vehicle
    flight test before end of decade human
    exploration capability by 2014
  • Separate cargo from crew as soon as practical to
    support ISS acquire crew transport to ISS after
    Shuttle retirement
  • Pursue international participation
  • Pursue commercial opportunity for transportation
    and other services

7
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8

Exploration Systems Implementation Key Objectives
Milestones
  • Objectives
  • Implement a sustained and affordable human and
    robotic program
  • Extend human presence across the solar system and
    beyond
  • Develop supporting innovative technologies,
    knowledge, and infrastructures
  • Promote international and commercial
    participation in exploration
  • Major Milestones
  • 2008 Initial flight test of CEV
  • 2008 Launch first lunar robotic orbiter
  • 2009-2010 Robotic mission to lunar surface
  • 2011 First Uncrewed CEV flight
  • 2014 First crewed CEV flight
  • 2012-2015 Jupiter Icy Moon Orbiter
    (JIMO)/Prometheus
  • 2015-2020 First human mission to the Moon

9
Preparing for Mars Exploration
  • Moon as a test bed to reduce risk for future
    human Mars missions
  • Technology advancement reduces mission costs and
    supports expanded human exploration
  • Systems testing and technology test beds to
    develop reliability in harsh environments.
  • Expand mission and science surface operations
    experience and techniques
  • Human and machine collaboration Machines serve
    as an extension of human explorers, together
    achieving more than either can do alone
  • Breaking the bonds of dependence on Earth
    (e.g./Life Science/Closed loop life support
    tests)
  • Power generation and propulsion development and
    testing
  • Common investments in hardware systems for Moon,
    Mars and other space objectives

10
Building on Lessons Learned
  • Task
  • Develop a consolidated database of lessons
    learned from human and robotic mission
    experience. Sample review areas
  • Space Station / Shuttle
  • CAIB / Challenger report
  • Previous NASA reviews
  • Etc.
  • Actions
  • Initiated task with Systems Management Office at
    Langley Research Center. Topic areas defined to
    include
  • Cultural Issues
  • Programmatic considerations
  • Technical/Engineering considerations
  • Communications
  • Ground Operations
  • Risk Assessment

11
Building on Past Findings
  • Packard Commission Findings
  • Get operators and technologists together to
    enable the leveraging of cost-performance trades
  • Apply technology to lower cost of system, not
    just to increase its performance
  • Mature technology prior to entering engineering
    and systems development
  • Partnerships with Industry to identify innovative
    solutions
  • Report of the DSB/AFSAB (Young Report)
  • Requirements definition and control are dominant
    drivers of cost, schedule, and risk in space
    systems development programs

12
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13
NASA Transformation
  • Presidents Commission on Space Exploration
    Policy
  • NASA needs to transform itself into a leaner,
    more focused agency…
  • Administrator OKeefe Announces New Organization
    Structure
  • …align Headquarters to eliminate stove pipes,
    promote synergy across the agency and support the
    long term exploration vision in a way thats
    sustainable and affordable.
  • Transforms Strategic Enterprises into Mission
    Directorates
  • Aeronautics Research Research and develop
    aeronautical technologies for safe, reliable and
    efficient aviation systems
  • Science Carry out the scientific exploration of
    the Earth, Moon, Mars and beyond chart the best
    route of discovery and reap the benefits of
    Earth and space exploration for society
  • Space Operations Direct space flight
    operations, space launches and space
    communications, as well as the operation of
    integrated systems in low-Earth orbit and beyond
  • Exploration Systems Develops capabilities and
    supporting research and technology that enable
    sustained and affordable human and robotic
    exploration includes the biological and physical
    research necessary to ensure the health and
    safety of crew during long duration space flight

14
CEV Development Acquisition
An Illustration of Transformation
NASA Concept Exploration Requirements
Development
  • Level 1 Requirements
  • Technical Solutions
  • Technology Gaps
  • Cost Estimates
  • Risks
  • Sustainability Issues
  • etc.

Andrews Space
Boeing
Draper Labs
CEV Concept Exploration and Refinement
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Orbital Sciences
Schafer
t-Space
Risk Reduction Demo
1st Human Flt
PDR
SRR
CDR
Study
Request for Proposal
Design
Design
Build, Test Launch
Study
Design
2014
2008
2005
2006
Test Flights
Technology Infusion
15
The Affordability Challenge
  • Apollo
  • Schedule Driven
  • Competitive Environment
  • No Human Spaceflight Experience
  • Need Driven Technology Push
  • Exploration Vision
  • Schedule Flexibility
  • Sustain/Educate/Deliver
  • 40 Years of Human Spaceflight
  • Technology Enables Affordability

Key Differences
Apollo 11
1st Lunar Mission
1st Human Flight
Risk Reduction Demo
CEV Demo
16
Response to the Challenge
ESMD Estimating Needs
ESMD Acquisition Process
Requirements Development
Concept Exploration
Performance Management
Budget Formulation
Current State of the Practice
Simulation Based Acquisition
Analysis of Alternatives
Policy and Processes Personnel Development Capabil
ity Improvement
Communicate! Communicate! Communicate!
Are We Having The Desired Effect?
  • Stakeholders
  • ESMD Management
  • Cost Estimating Community

Feedback
  • Implementation

17
Personnel Development
  • NASA Cost Estimator Career Plan
  • Training
  • Knowledge
  • Experience
  • Working Jointly with OCFO Cost Analysis Division,
    OCE, and others to Develop Plan Qualification
    Process
  • Schedule Currently being Revised
  • Competency Levels
  • Entry
  • Journey
  • Senior
  • Executive

18
Capability Improvement
ESMD Cost Estimating Needs and Requirements
Inventory Current Tools, Models, and Data Bases
This is where we are Today
Implement and Validate
Identify Gaps and Weaknesses
  • Technomics Study
  • Cost IDT Assessment
  • Simulation Based Acquisition

Define and Procure Necessary Resources
Translate into Strategy and Requirements
19
Status of NASA Tools Models
Note Capability as Measured Against ESMD
Estimating Needs
20
ESMD Capability Improvement Initiatives
Note ESMD is Partnering with the OCFO Cost
Analysis Div.
  • Addressing Gaps
  • Lead Systems Integrator Cost Model
  • Mission Operations Cost Model
  • Improving Existing Capabilities
  • Hardware Model Improvements
  • Software Data Collection Modeling
  • Data Collection Analysis
  • ISS Data Collection
  • Inventory of NASA Data

Funding is Available and Procurements are being
Initiated
21
ESMD Cost Policy Process
  • Goal Credible Total Ownership Cost Estimates
  • Support Requirements Development, Acquisition
    Milestones, Estimates at Completion, etc.
  • Validated by Independent, Outside Estimates i.e.
    DOD CAIG
  • Create a Learning Culture
  • Policy Process Documented in Program Management
    Handbook
  • Policy Supports Acquisition Milestones, EVM
    Implementation, and 7120.5c
  • Forming Outside Review Panel
  • Experts from Aerospace, RAND, DOD CAIG, etc.
  • Independent Check on Estimates, Processes, and
    Improvement Initiatives

22
ESMD Hot Cost Activities
  • Spiral 1 Milestone A Independent Cost Assessment
  • Spiral 1 Concept Review
  • Launch Vehicle/Lunar Mission Architecture
    Analysis of Alternatives
  • SEI RFP Independent Government Cost Estimate
  • Simulation Based Acquisition Cost Estimating and
    Analysis Strategy

23
Summary
  • The Vision for Space Exploration is NASAs Future
  • ESMD is Substantially Changing the Way NASA Does
    Business by Infusing Management Rigor,
    Consistency of Purpose, and Disciplined Processes
  • Key Implementation Challenges
  • Sustainability
  • Affordability
  • ESMD is Transforming NASA Cost Estimating to Meet
    the Challenge
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