2008 Election Primer Steve Okun Chairman October 14, 2008 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2008 Election Primer Steve Okun Chairman October 14, 2008

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RI-4. DC-3. DE-3. VT-3. ME-1. CA-55. NY-31. IL-21. PA-21. MI-17. NJ-15. WA-11. MD ... Day ... (Virginia, North Carolina or Florida) should mean an Obama victory. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: 2008 Election Primer Steve Okun Chairman October 14, 2008


1
2008 Election PrimerSteve OkunChairmanOctober
14, 2008
2
What Drives American Voters
  • Three indicators of the national political
    climate have accurately predicted the outcomes of
    presidential elections since the end of WWII
  • The incumbent president's approval rating at
    mid-year
  • The growth rate of the economy during the second
    quarter of the election year and,
  • The length of time the president's party has held
    the White House.
  • Larry J. Sabatos Crystal Ball 08, May 29, 2008
  • (source for 3 Electoral Barometer Slides)

3
Electoral Barometer Readings and Election Results
since World War II
  • Barometer Reading Year Election Result
    Popular Vote Margin
  • 82.5 1964 Won 22.6
  • 73.0 1972 Won 23.2
  • 71.0 1956 Won 15.4
  • 51.5 1984 Won 18.2
  • 43.5 1996 Won 8.5
  • 22.0 2000 Won 0.5
  • 13.0 2004 Won 2.5
  • 9.0 1988 Won 7.7
  • 4.5 1948 Won 4.5
  • 2.0 1968 Lost -0.7
  • -5.0 1960 Lost -0.2
  • -5.0 1976 Lost -2.1
  • -22.5 1992 Lost -5.6
  • -49.5 1952 Lost -10.9
  • -66.0 1980 Lost -9.7

4
2008 Electoral Barometer
  • Barometer Reading Year Election Result
    Popular Vote Margin
  • 82.5 1964 Won 22.6
  • 73.0 1972 Won 23.2
  • 71.0 1956 Won 15.4
  • 51.5 1984 Won 18.2
  • 43.5 1996 Won 8.5
  • 22.0 2000 Won 0.5
  • 13.0 2004 Won 2.5
  • 9.0 1988 Won 7.7
  • 4.5 1948 Won 4.5
  • 2.0 1968 Lost -0.7
  • -5.0 1960 Lost -0.2
  • -5.0 1976 Lost -2.1
  • -22.5 1992 Lost -5.6
  • -49.5 1952 Lost -10.9
  • -63.0 2008 ??? ???
  • -66.0 1980 Lost -9.7

5
Dem. or Rep. Plurality in Registration, 2000-08
  • FALL 00 FALL 04 SUMMER 08
  • CO 160,551 R 177,508 R 73,634 R
  • FL 372,843 D 368,757 D 498,124 D
  • IA 24,648 R 4,402 R 94,255 D
  • NV 838 R 4,431 R 61,705 D
  • NH 77,549 R 38,746 R 5,932 R
  • NJ 303,191 D 278,423 D 652,210 D
  • NM 190,132 D 190,956 D 202,186 D
  • NC 822,661 D 677,641 D 762,643 D
  • OR 70,016 D 67,480 D 216,221 D
  • PA 485,540 D 580,208 D 1,136,387 D
  • Source Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball, October
    2008 Update

6
How the United States Elects Its President The
Electoral College
Source The National Journal
7
John Kerrys 253 Electoral Votes
8
Obama Needs Kerry 17
9
Latest Battleground Pollshttp//www.politico.co
m/convention/swingstate.html, October 13, 2008
  • VA-13 50.6-44.3 MI-17 49.1-41.3
  • FL-27 48.7-44.9 CO-9 49.3-45.3
  • OH-20 48.5-44.8 NM-5 49.8-42.5
  • PA-21 53.6-39.8 NV-5 49.2-46.3
  • NH-4 52.0-44.6 IA-7 52.8-41.0

10
Election Day Tips
  • Keep in mind all Obama Needs is Kerry plus Iowa,
    Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado
  • Any early Bush state in the Obama column
    (Virginia, North Carolina or Florida) should mean
    an Obama victory.
  • Higher turnout should help the Democrats.

11
2008 Election Primer Steve Okun Chairman
American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore October
14, 2008
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