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MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY GERALDO G. SERRA University of S

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Title: MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY GERALDO G. SERRA University of S


1
MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY
GERALDO G. SERRA
University of São
Paulo
  • SCIENTIFIC SESSION ENERGY CLIMATE INTERACTION
    ROME PONTIFICAL
    ACADEMY OF SCIENCES DECEMBER 20th, 2007

WORLD FEDERATION OF SCIENTISTS PMP LIMITS OF
DEVELOPMENT
2
MEXICO
  • Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human Settlements

3
Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human
Settlements in Mexico
Destructive path of Gilbert (1988) that crossed
the Yucatan Peninsula and entered deep into the
Mexican and U.S. territories
Isidore over the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (2002)
Tropical storm tracks starting in the Atlantic
Ocean that reach the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of
Mexico (2005)
Source Alberto González-Pozo, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
4
Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human
Settlements in Mexico
Source Adapted from IPCC, 2001. Climate Change
2001. Working Group II Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Fig. 18.1 y 18.5.
Apud Towards a National Climate Change
Strategy, Executive Summary, Interministerial
Commission on Climate Change Marks by
Author
5
USA
  • Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban
    Development The case of North Carolina Outer Banks

6
Urban development x erosion and rising see level
Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban Development
  • Huge demand for waterfront and near waterfront
    property
  • 36 of entire U.S. property values are on the
    coastline
  • Between 1980 and 2003
  • 33 million moved to a coastal county
  • Over 7 million in Florida
  • 2.5 million in Texas
  • Disappearing coastlines due to erosion and sea
    level rise

Source Jesse Saginor Chris Ellis, AM
University, USA Barrier Island Ecology of Cape
Lookout National Seashore and Vicinity, North
Carolina NPS Scientific Monograph No. 9
7
Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban Development
  • SEA LEVEL RISE COULD LEAD TO
  • flooding of low-lying property
  • loss of coastal wetlands
  • erosion of beaches
  • saltwater contamination of drinking water
  • decreased longevity of low-lying roads,
    causeways, and bridges
  • increase the vulnerability to storms and
    associated flooding

POSSIBLE ADAPTATIONS TO SEE LEVEL RISE -
(Planned) Retreat all natural system effects
are allowed to occur and human impacts are
minimized by pulling back from the coast -
Accommodation all natural system effects are
allowed to occur and human impacts are minimized
by adjusting human use of the coastal zone -
Protection natural system effects are
controlled by soft or hard engineering, reducing
human impacts in the zone.
Sources Robert J. Nicholls, Flood Hazard
Research Centre, Middlesex University, Enfield,
London EN3 4SF, United Kingdom and Richard J.T.
Klein, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam,
Germany ADAPTATION FRAMEWORKS FOR SEA-LEVEL RISE
IMPACTS EPA, Climate Change in North Carolina,
EPA 236-F-98-007q, September 1998
8
EUROPE
  • Climate change, consequences and countermeasures

9
Climate Change- Consequences for Europe
  • The global mean temperature should rise about 2-
    3 C by 2050.
  • The Arctic Ocean should be ice-free by 2100
  • This could imply extinction of 10 of all
    terrestrial species
  • Sea level would probably rise about 0.20 m or
    more
  • Flooding of areas in the Netherlands and North
    Germany may be possible
  • Farming conditions should improve in northern
    Europe
  • Flooding of rivers and heavy rains in central
    Europe will become common events
  • Rainfall decrease in southern Europe (Spain,
    Italy and Greece)
  • This should cause problems for farming and
    drinking water supply
  • Could also imply more frequent forest fires and
    decline of vegetation
  • Could also increase cases of verminosis, malaria,
    borreliosis and meningoencefalitis
  • Tourism industry decreases in mountainous regions
    (especially 1200- 1500 m)
  • Extreme weather conditions would be more frequent
  • Climate change in Africa and Middle East could
    bring more immigrants to Europe

Source Hiltmar Schubert, Fraunhofer-Institut für
Chemische Technologie, Germany, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
10
Climate Change- Consequences for Europe
  • Proposed adaptation measures
  • In the next decades, plans for dam-building are
    available . But more research is needed for
    dam-raising after 2050.
  • Larger artificial flooding areas along the rivers
    would be necessary
  • Improvements in irrigation concepts and farming
    should be developed
  • Water and sewage management should be improved
    and more reservoirs built
  • Alternatives to winter sports should be devised
  • Air-conditioning in residential, commercial and
    industrial buildings will require more energy
  • More research is needed to understand immigration
    causes
  • Proposed mitigation programs
  • Saving forest areas
  • Artificial storage of CO2
  • Energy production with reduced or without GHG
  • wind power,
  • solar-energy,
  • geothermal energy
  • nuclear energy

Adaptation Barriers to shield Venice lagoon from
freak tides
Source Hiltmar Schubert, Fraunhofer-Institut für
Chemische Technologie, Germany, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
11
Climate Change- Consequences for Europe France
The Grenelle Environment
  • FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGES
  • Modernizing buildings and cities (42.5 of energy
    and 23 of emissions)
  • Improve the efficiency of energy and carbon
  • 2020 20 renewable, 20 efficiency 10
    biofuels
  • 2050 reduction of 75 of emission,
  • 2020 increase of 20.106 Mtoe production of
    renewable energy
  • 2020 decrease of 38 energy consumption of
    buildings
  • Town planning and territorial governance
  • Mobility and transportation 2020 decrease in
    20 transportation energy consumption
  • PRACTICES, GENETIC MODIFYED ORGANISMS
  • Ecological and productive agriculture
  • Valorization of forest resources
  • Continue with researches into GMO
  • To stop biodiversity loss
  • Preserve ecological quality of water
  • Biofuels
  • Overseas

11
Source Bertil Galand, Switzerland , 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
http//www.legrenelle-environnement.fr/grenelle-en
vironnement/
12
West and Central AFRICA
  • Climate change impacts and countermeasures

13
Climate change impacts and countermeasures
Source Mbareck Diop, Science Technology
Advisor to the President, Senegal, 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
14
Climate change impacts and countermeasures
  • Agriculture and Food Security
  • Global mean temperature
  • increase gt 1ºC Decreases in crop yields
    estimated at up to 10
  • Increase 2 to 3C African Great Lakes
    ecosystems collapse
  • CO2 up to 12 Decrease 2.5-5 in cereal crop
    yields
  • Reductions in rainfall 20 May impact pastures
    in semi-arid regions
  • Increases in rainfall Increase productive
    rangelands and disruption to fisheries in
    Sahel and Sahara
  • By 2080s up to 40 of sub-Saharan countries
    should lose considerable agricultural resources
  • Water
  • Global mean temperature increases gt 1C
  • Increases in runoff around 30 in central
    eastern Sahel and Sahara
  • More people living in watersheds with increasing
    water stress by 2050s
  • Water stress likely to increase from 47 in 2000
    to 65 in 2025

Source Mbareck Diop, Science Technology
Advisor to the President, Senegal, 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
15
Climate change impacts and countermeasures
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
(CCAA) International Development Research Centre
(IDRC), Canada Department for International
Development (DFID), UK
  • Advance Capacity to Support Climate Change
    Adaptation
  • Reduce vulnerability of poor populations in
    sub-Saharan Africa to climate change by
    mobilizing scientists and all the other important
    players in political decision-making.
  • Strengthen the Capacity to Adapt to
    Climate Change in Rural Benin
  • Support surveillance committees in 35
    communes and foster farmer experimentation in two
    field-schools in each commune .
  • Strengthening the Capacity of Smallholder
    Farmers to Adapt to Climate Change through
    Radio Drama (Nigeria)
  • Support production and test of a 26-episode
    radio drama featuring climate adaptation content

Source Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA)
16
BRAZIL
  • The PROALCOOL Program

17
The PROALCOOL Program
Factors contributing to Brazils position
include a relatively warm climate, a high rate of
ethanol use for transportation and ample
hydropower capacity for electricity
generation. (Source IEA Agriculture Economy
Institute)
Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
18
The PROALCOOL Program
  • The PROALCOOL program was created by the
    Federal Government on 14 November 1975.
  • This was done after the development at ITA
    (Aeronautics Institute of Technology), at the
    beginning of the same year, of the first motor
    using ethanol as fuel.
  • At the time, its aim was the reduction of oil
    imports. Improvement of urban air quality and
    decrease of GHG emissions were pointed out as no
    more than a bonus.
  • Besides the ethanol motors, it was decided to
    add 20 ethanol to gasoline. This addition was
    decided after agreement with the automakers to
    adapt motors

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
19
The PROALCOOL Program
  • After the program implementation the improvement
    of air quality was perceived by the urban public
    not as a bonus but as the best part of it.
  • During the 1970s sugar prices were falling on the
    international market and oil prices were rising.
    This greatly contributed to the programs initial
    success.
  • In the 1990s oil prices were falling and sugar
    prices were rising, thus the industry preferred
    to make sugar instead of ethanol, and an ethanol
    shortage occurred.
  • Government and Petrobras tried to reduce the
    percentage of the addition of ethanol to gasoline
    to avoid ethanol importation.

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
20
The PROALCOOL Program
  • The population of big cities public, like São
    Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte,
    protested, and the percentage was maintained at
    this moment the PROALCOOL could be understood
    more as a program to improve air quality and less
    to reduce oil imports.
  • The consequence of this situation was the
    development of flex motors, allowing the consumer
    decide what is better for him/her.
  • As oil prices increased again Brazilian deep
    offshore oil wells became economically feasible,
    and oil imports is no longer a concern.
  • But now PROALCOOL is already established as a
    GHG reduction program, with more than a million
    rural jobs besides the industrial ones.

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
21
The PROALCOOL Program
ETHANOL PRODUCTION Year Billions
liters 2007 15.2 2010 26 (projected) 2015 36
(projected) (Source IEA Agriculture Economy
Institute)
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE (2007) Land suitable for
agriculture is around 140 million ha. Harvested
area is 58 million ha. 11.5 Sugar
cane 23,8 Corn 35,3 Soy Beans 29,4 Other
cultures (SourceIBGE Brazilian Institute for
Geography and Statistics)
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS LOCALIZATION
Northeastern 87
The total area occupied by sugar cane is 6.7
million ha (1 of the national territory.) (2007)
Southeastern/Centralwestern 217
Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
22
Conclusions
  • WITH CURRENT LEVELS OF GHG EMISSIONS, DEVELOPMENT
    IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.
  • THESE EMISSIONS AND THEIR STEADY INCREASE ARE OUR
    RESPONSIBILITY.
  • ALTHOUGH EVERYBODY WANTS TO FOLLOW DEVELOPING,
    NOBODY LIKES TO BREATHE POLLUTED AIR AND MOST
    PEOPLE ARE DEMANDING ABOUT CLEAN AIR,
    PARTICULARLY IN BIG CITIES, WHERE MOST PEOPLE
    WILL LIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 21ST CENTURY.
  • MANY GOVERNMENTS DONT SHOW MUCH INTEREST IN
    PROGRAMS FOR THE REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND
    SEEM TO PREFER ADAPTATION MEASURES.
  • HOWEVER, ADAPTATION MEASURES HAVE A COST AND
    OFTEN A VERY HIGH COST AND IN MANY CASES ARE MORE
    SURVIVAL DEVICES THAN SOLUTIONS.
  • IT IS VITAL TO SHOW TO DECISION MAKERS THAT GHG
    REDUCTION PROGRAMS COULD PROVIDE GOOD BUSINESS
    OPPORTUNITIES AND ARE NOT CHARITY CAMPAIGNS.
  • MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED, WHICH IMPLIES MORE
    RESOURCES FOR INVESTIGATION ON CONSEQUENCES OF
    GHG EMISSIONS COUNTERMEASURES ON DEVELOPMENT.

23
SCIENTIFIC SESSION ENERGY CLIMATE INTERACTION
ROME PONTIFICAL
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES DECEMBER 20th, 2007
THANK YOU!
MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY
GERALDO G. SERRA
University of São
Paulo
WORLD FEDERATION OF SCIENTISTS PMP LIMITS OF
DEVELOPMENT
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