MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY GERALDO G. SERRA University of S

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MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY
GERALDO G. SERRA
University of São
Paulo

• SCIENTIFIC SESSIONENERGY CLIMATE INTERACTION
  ROME PONTIFICAL
  ACADEMY OF SCIENCES DECEMBER 20th, 2007

WORLD FEDERATION OF SCIENTISTS PMP LIMITS OF
DEVELOPMENT
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MEXICO

• Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human Settlements

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Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human
Settlements in Mexico
Destructive path of Gilbert (1988) that crossed
the Yucatan Peninsula and entered deep into the
Mexican and U.S. territories
Isidore over the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (2002)
Tropical storm tracks starting in the Atlantic
Ocean that reach the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of
Mexico (2005)
Source Alberto González-Pozo, Universidad
Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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Mitigation Programs for Coastal Human
Settlements in Mexico
Source Adapted from IPCC, 2001. Climate Change
2001. Working Group II Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Fig. 18.1 y 18.5.
Apud Towards a National Climate Change
Strategy, Executive Summary, Interministerial
Commission on Climate Change Marks by
Author
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USA

• Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban
  DevelopmentThe case of North Carolina Outer Banks

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Urban development x erosion and rising see level
Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban Development

• Huge demand for waterfront and near waterfront
  property
• 36 of entire U.S. property values are on the
  coastline
• Between 1980 and 2003
• 33 million moved to a coastal county
• Over 7 million in Florida
• 2.5 million in Texas
• Disappearing coastlines due to erosion and sea
  level rise

Source Jesse Saginor Chris Ellis, AM
University, USA Barrier Island Ecology of Cape
Lookout National Seashore and Vicinity, North
Carolina NPS Scientific Monograph No. 9
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Impact of Rising Sea Levels on Urban Development

• SEA LEVEL RISE COULD LEAD TO
• flooding of low-lying property
• loss of coastal wetlands
• erosion of beaches
• saltwater contamination of drinking water
• decreased longevity of low-lying roads,
  causeways, and bridges
• increase the vulnerability to storms and
  associated flooding

POSSIBLE ADAPTATIONS TO SEE LEVEL RISE -
(Planned) Retreat all natural system effects
are allowed to occur and human impacts are
minimized by pulling back from the coast -
Accommodation all natural system effects are
allowed to occur and human impacts are minimized
by adjusting human use of the coastal zone -
Protection natural system effects are
controlled by soft or hard engineering, reducing
human impacts in the zone.
Sources Robert J. Nicholls, Flood Hazard
Research Centre, Middlesex University, Enfield,
London EN3 4SF, United Kingdom and Richard J.T.
Klein, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research (PIK), P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam,
Germany ADAPTATION FRAMEWORKS FOR SEA-LEVEL RISE
IMPACTS EPA, Climate Change in North Carolina,
EPA 236-F-98-007q, September 1998
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EUROPE

• Climate change, consequences and countermeasures

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Climate Change- Consequences for Europe

• The global mean temperature should rise about 2-
  3 C by 2050.
• The Arctic Ocean should be ice-free by 2100
• This could imply extinction of 10 of all
  terrestrial species
• Sea level would probably rise about 0.20 m or
  more
• Flooding of areas in the Netherlands and North
  Germany may be possible
• Farming conditions should improve in northern
  Europe
• Flooding of rivers and heavy rains in central
  Europe will become common events
• Rainfall decrease in southern Europe (Spain,
  Italy and Greece)
• This should cause problems for farming and
  drinking water supply
• Could also imply more frequent forest fires and
  decline of vegetation
• Could also increase cases of verminosis, malaria,
  borreliosis and meningoencefalitis
• Tourism industry decreases in mountainous regions
  (especially 1200- 1500 m)
• Extreme weather conditions would be more frequent
• Climate change in Africa and Middle East could
  bring more immigrants to Europe

Source Hiltmar Schubert, Fraunhofer-Institut für
Chemische Technologie, Germany, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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Climate Change- Consequences for Europe

• Proposed adaptation measures
• In the next decades, plans for dam-building are
  available . But more research is needed for
  dam-raising after 2050.
• Larger artificial flooding areas along the rivers
  would be necessary
• Improvements in irrigation concepts and farming
  should be developed
• Water and sewage management should be improved
  and more reservoirs built
• Alternatives to winter sports should be devised
• Air-conditioning in residential, commercial and
  industrial buildings will require more energy
• More research is needed to understand immigration
  causes

• Proposed mitigation programs
• Saving forest areas
• Artificial storage of CO2
• Energy production with reduced or without GHG
• wind power,
• solar-energy,
• geothermal energy
• nuclear energy

Adaptation Barriers to shield Venice lagoon from
freak tides
Source Hiltmar Schubert, Fraunhofer-Institut für
Chemische Technologie, Germany, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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Climate Change- Consequences for EuropeFrance
The Grenelle Environment

• FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGES
• Modernizing buildings and cities (42.5 of energy
  and 23 of emissions)
• Improve the efficiency of energy and carbon
• 2020 20 renewable, 20 efficiency 10
  biofuels
• 2050 reduction of 75 of emission,
• 2020 increase of 20.106 Mtoe production of
  renewable energy
• 2020 decrease of 38 energy consumption of
  buildings
• Town planning and territorial governance
• Mobility and transportation 2020 decrease in
  20 transportation energy consumption

• PRACTICES, GENETIC MODIFYED ORGANISMS
• Ecological and productive agriculture
• Valorization of forest resources
• Continue with researches into GMO
• To stop biodiversity loss
• Preserve ecological quality of water
• Biofuels
• Overseas

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Source Bertil Galand, Switzerland , 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
http//www.legrenelle-environnement.fr/grenelle-en
vironnement/
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West and Central AFRICA

• Climate change impacts and countermeasures

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Climate change impacts and countermeasures
Source Mbareck Diop, Science Technology
Advisor to the President, Senegal, 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
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Climate change impacts and countermeasures

• Agriculture and Food Security
• Global mean temperature
• increase gt 1ºC Decreases in crop yields
  estimated at up to 10
• Increase 2 to 3C African Great Lakes
  ecosystems collapse
• CO2 up to 12 Decrease 2.5-5 in cereal crop
  yields
• Reductions in rainfall 20 May impact pastures
  in semi-arid regions
• Increases in rainfall Increase productive
  rangelands and disruption to fisheries in
  Sahel and Sahara
• By 2080s up to 40 of sub-Saharan countries
  should lose considerable agricultural resources
• Water
• Global mean temperature increases gt 1C
• Increases in runoff around 30 in central
  eastern Sahel and Sahara
• More people living in watersheds with increasing
  water stress by 2050s
• Water stress likely to increase from 47 in 2000
  to 65 in 2025

Source Mbareck Diop, Science Technology
Advisor to the President, Senegal, 38ª WFS
General Assembly, Erice
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Climate change impacts and countermeasures
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa
(CCAA) International Development Research Centre
(IDRC), Canada Department for International
Development (DFID), UK

• Advance Capacity to Support Climate Change
  Adaptation
• Reduce vulnerability of poor populations in
  sub-Saharan Africa to climate change by
  mobilizing scientists and all the other important
  players in political decision-making.
• Strengthen the Capacity to Adapt to
  ClimateChange in Rural Benin
• Support surveillance committees in 35
  communesand foster farmer experimentation in two
  field-schools in each commune .
• Strengthening the Capacity of Smallholder
  Farmers to Adapt to Climate Change through
  Radio Drama (Nigeria)
• Support production and test of a 26-episode
  radio drama featuring climate adaptation content

Source Climate Change Adaptation in Africa (CCAA)
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BRAZIL

• The PROALCOOL Program

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The PROALCOOL Program
Factors contributing to Brazils position
include a relatively warm climate, a high rate of
ethanol use for transportation and ample
hydropower capacity for electricity
generation.(Source IEA Agriculture Economy
Institute)
Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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The PROALCOOL Program

• The PROALCOOL program was created by the
  Federal Government on 14 November 1975.
• This was done after the development at ITA
  (Aeronautics Institute of Technology), at the
  beginning of the same year, of the first motor
  using ethanol as fuel.
• At the time, its aim was the reduction of oil
  imports. Improvement of urban air quality and
  decrease of GHG emissions were pointed out as no
  more than a bonus.
• Besides the ethanol motors, it was decided to
  add 20 ethanol to gasoline. This addition was
  decided after agreement with the automakers to
  adapt motors

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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The PROALCOOL Program

• After the program implementation the improvement
  of air quality was perceived by the urban public
  not as a bonus but as the best part of it.
• During the 1970s sugar prices were falling on the
  international market and oil prices were rising.
  This greatly contributed to the programs initial
  success.
• In the 1990s oil prices were falling and sugar
  prices were rising, thus the industry preferred
  to make sugar instead of ethanol, and an ethanol
  shortage occurred.
• Government and Petrobras tried to reduce the
  percentage of the addition of ethanol to gasoline
  to avoid ethanol importation.

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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The PROALCOOL Program

• The population of big cities public, like São
  Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte,
  protested, and the percentage was maintained at
  this moment the PROALCOOL could be understood
  more as a program to improve air quality and less
  to reduce oil imports.
• The consequence of this situation was the
  development of flex motors, allowing the consumer
  decide what is better for him/her.
• As oil prices increased again Brazilian deep
  offshore oil wells became economically feasible,
  and oil imports is no longer a concern.
• But now PROALCOOL is already established as a
  GHG reduction program, with more than a million
  rural jobs besides the industrial ones.

Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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The PROALCOOL Program
ETHANOL PRODUCTION Year Billions
liters 2007 15.2 2010 26 (projected) 2015 36
(projected)(Source IEA Agriculture Economy
Institute)
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE (2007) Land suitable for
agriculture is around 140 million ha. Harvested
area is 58 million ha. 11.5 Sugar
cane 23,8 Corn 35,3 Soy Beans 29,4 Other
cultures (SourceIBGE Brazilian Institute for
Geography and Statistics)
INDUSTRIAL PLANTSLOCALIZATION
Northeastern 87
The total area occupied by sugar cane is 6.7
million ha (1 of the national territory.) (2007)
Southeastern/Centralwestern 217
Source Geraldo G. Serra, University of São
Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil, 38ª WFS General
Assembly, Erice
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Conclusions

• WITH CURRENT LEVELS OF GHG EMISSIONS, DEVELOPMENT
  IS NOT SUSTAINABLE.
• THESE EMISSIONS AND THEIR STEADY INCREASE ARE OUR
  RESPONSIBILITY.
• ALTHOUGH EVERYBODY WANTS TO FOLLOW DEVELOPING,
  NOBODY LIKES TO BREATHE POLLUTED AIR AND MOST
  PEOPLE ARE DEMANDING ABOUT CLEAN AIR,
  PARTICULARLY IN BIG CITIES, WHERE MOST PEOPLE
  WILL LIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 21ST CENTURY.
• MANY GOVERNMENTS DONT SHOW MUCH INTEREST IN
  PROGRAMS FOR THE REDUCTION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND
  SEEM TO PREFER ADAPTATION MEASURES.
• HOWEVER, ADAPTATION MEASURES HAVE A COST AND
  OFTEN A VERY HIGH COST AND IN MANY CASES ARE MORE
  SURVIVAL DEVICES THAN SOLUTIONS.
• IT IS VITAL TO SHOW TO DECISION MAKERS THAT GHG
  REDUCTION PROGRAMS COULD PROVIDE GOOD BUSINESS
  OPPORTUNITIES AND ARE NOT CHARITY CAMPAIGNS.
• MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED, WHICH IMPLIES MORE
  RESOURCES FOR INVESTIGATION ON CONSEQUENCES OF
  GHG EMISSIONS COUNTERMEASURES ON DEVELOPMENT.

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SCIENTIFIC SESSIONENERGY CLIMATE INTERACTION
ROME PONTIFICAL
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES DECEMBER 20th, 2007
THANK YOU!
MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABILITY
GERALDO G. SERRA
University of São
Paulo
WORLD FEDERATION OF SCIENTISTS PMP LIMITS OF
DEVELOPMENT