The Pandemic Problem

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The Pandemic Problem
Is It Real and What Can Be Done About It?

• Presented by
• Harlan Dolgin, Reuters
• Tim Woerther, ATT
• Co-Chairs, PandemicPrep.Org

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Identifying the Problem

• Pandemics are a reality that occur naturally 2-3
  times every century
• Pandemic occurs when a flu or other virus shifts
  into a new virus that our bodies are not able to
  fight off.
• H5N1, TB, Staff are all candidates

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Most likely to become a Pandemic

• H5N1 (Avian Flu or Bird Flu) is of great
  concern for a pandemic

• Mortality rate overall is gt 50
• Mortality rate for 2007 was gt 60

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Most Likely to become a Pandemic

• H5N1 strain could become communicable or Person
  to Person

• Anticipated mortality rate of 2 or higher
• Estimates that 100-600 million people could die
  worldwide

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History of Pandemics

• Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century
• 1918 - estimated 40-50 million people died
• 1957
• 1968
• H5N1 most closely resembles flu of 1918

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Seasonal vs. Avian Influenza

• Seasonal Influenza
• Occurs every Fall/Winter
• Approximately 35,000 people die in the U.S. every
  year
• Determination of strains for vaccine is 6 months
  before season begins

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Seasonal vs. Avian Influenza

• Avian Influenza, Bird Flu, or H5N1
• Begins as a virus in wild birds and mutates to a
  form that can infect pigs, humans or other
  species
• Usually does not turn into a pandemic, but has
  the potential

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Pandemic Influenza

• Occurs when a new virus mutates into a highly
  transmissible form
• Outbreaks can be any strain
• Occur naturally every 30-40 years
• Death rate varies in pandemics
• Highly probable that a pandemic will occur within
  the next 10 years

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Pandemic Risk

• Its hard to make predictions, especially about
  the future.
• -Yogi Berra

World Health Organization Levels
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Why Experts Are Concerned H5N1

• H5N1 is close to becoming transmissible from
  person to person, or H2H
• May kill as many as 100-600 million people
  worldwide with millions in the US
• Presently no vaccine effective against H5N1
• Vaccine development will take 6 months and
  productions in mass quantities will take longer

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Why Experts Are Concerned H5N1

• Humans can carry and transmit the disease for 1-2
  days before becoming sick themselves
• Containment is nearly impossible
• Economic impact worldwide trillions of dollars

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Why You Should Be Concerned

• Insufficient vaccine supplies until at least 1
  year into a pandemic
• 30-40 of population may become ill
• Closings of schools, day care, businesses and
  public gatherings
• Food and medicine may become scarce
• Imagine a Hurricane Katrina-type emergency
  worldwide

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Why There is Hope

• Communities that responded quickly to the 1918
  Pandemic had a much lower death rate than other
  communities
• Example Philadelphia had a death rate 5 times
  higher than the death rate in St. Louis in 1918
• Studies are under way of how successful
  communities combated the 1918 Pandemic

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Why There is Hope

• Science and medicine are trying to improve our
  capability to respond to a pandemic.
• Awareness and preparation are our best weapons
  against a pandemic.

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Working Together
Prevent the social collapse that could occur as
the result of a pandemic
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What Can You Do?
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Two Tiers of Preparation
Pharmaceutical Non-Pharmaceutical
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What Can Your Business Do?

• Discuss at management levels how a pandemic might
  impact your business overall
• How would your company handle a 30-40 reduction
  in staff?
• Create a pandemic plan

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What Can Your Business Do?

• Create a Pandemic Plan
• Identify critical and non-critical functions
• Determine how to staff critical functions with
  30-40 absenteeism
• Identify staff who can work from home
• Make sure staff knows and uses good hygiene
• Identify triggers for closing offices

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What Can Your Business Do?

• Review and modify HR policies
• Will staff get paid while they are ill or caring
  for sick family members for extended periods?
• Will they get paid while buildings are closed?
• Revise sick policies to prohibit ill people
  from coming to work
• Consider other staff policy issues

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What Can Your Business Do?

• Create a communications plan
• Consider legal issues
• Address IT solutions and limitations consider
  work-from-home policy
• Ensure employee personal preparedness
• Identify workplace modification opportunities
• Take advantage of educational opportunities Red
  Cross, health departments, PandemicPrep.Org

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What Can Your Business Do?

• Share Best Practices
• Ameren UE
• Mastercard
• Centene
• ATT
• Reuters
• Edward Jones

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What Can Your Community Do?

• Develop a plan for your community
• Consider when schools should be closed.
• Develop communications plan
• Talk to utilities and other infrastructure
• Consider impact of 30-40 loss of staff to
  critical services
• Police and Fire Departments
• Trash Pickup
• Communicate with other State and local agencies
  to coordinate responses

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What Can Your Family Do?

• Store at least 2-3 weeks of food, water and
  medicine for your family.
• Consider buying Personal Protective Equipment
  (PPE) masks and gloves
• Learn and utilize proper hygiene

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What Can Your Family Do?

• Plan for how a pandemic might impact your life
• How will it impact your job and your company?
• Will you be able to work from home?
• If you have young children, what will you do if
  schools and day cares close?
• Do you have money and food reserves to survive
  for a time on your own?

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Alternative Work Considerations

• An ability to perform job functions remotely will
  allow some level of business productivity
• This ability will be dependent on the employees
  ability to communicate

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What Should Your Organization Do?

• Review your remote access and network
  capabilities
• Analyze telecommuting capacity
• Understand each access method available (dial-up,
  private line, DSL, wireless broadband, cable and
  IP fiber)
• Each provides performance vs. price trade-offs
• Consider employing a mix, ensuring availability
  for critical business needs

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Connectivity Options

• Having alternatives will allow for ways to
  continue critical business functions
• Private Line Services
• Virtual Private Network Services
• DSL and High-Speed Cable
• Dial up Access
• WiFi

Bottom line if you dont have the expertise
seek it out to help evaluate and determine the
best option for your organization and employees
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PandemicPrep.Org Mission
Through education and planning, ensure St. Louis
area businesses, organizations and communities
are prepared to survive a pandemic
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PandemicPrep.Org Mission

• Educate individuals and regional businesses,
  schools, service organizations and governments
  about the dangers of a pandemic and the
  importance of advance planning
• Provide a clearinghouse for St. Louis area
  pandemic guidelines and resources
• Identify gaps in St. Louis area planning efforts
• Serve as a catalyst to help industries and local
  governments close those gaps
• Motivate area leaders, businesses and individuals
  to take decisive action now

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Since September 2006

• Quarterly Pandemic Conferences
• Website www.PandemicPrep.Org
• Pandemic Resource Guide on website
• Templates/Sample Plans
• Work from Home
• Employee Personal Preparedness
• HR Issues
• Legal Issues
• Workplace Modification
• Federal, State and Local summaries
• St. Louis Pandemic Network

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Whats Next

• Website enhancements
• Regular quarterly conferences
• March 4, 2008 Edward Jones
• Communications
• Workplace Modification
• Personal Protection Equipment
• Pandemic Plan Best Practices
• Outreach to more organizations
• Define the Ideally Prepared Community

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Resources

• World Health Organization http//www.who.int/csr/d
  isease/avian_influenza/en/index.html
• United States Center for Disease Control
  http//www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/
• International Society for Infectious Diseases
  http//www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p24001000
  
• Center for Infectious Disease Research Policy
  http//www.cidrap.umn.edu/
• PandemicPrep.Org
  www.PandemicPrep.Org