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Climate System Social System Interactions in the Northern Atlantic

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Faroe Islands, Northeast Atlantic. Faroese landings of demersal fish from home waters, 1961-2000 ... Faroe Islands cod catch and net migration 1980-2000 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate System Social System Interactions in the Northern Atlantic


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Climate System Social System Interactions in
the Northern Atlantic
  • North Atlantic Arc project NAArc
  • NSF Arctic Social Sciences and ARCSS

3
Influences, feedbacks and interactions among
systems
Physical system change
Physical/social interactions affect biological
system
Biological system change
Human activities
Biological changes affect humans
4
Three case studies
  • Major changes have affected fisheries across the
    Northern Atlantic.
  • Interactions between physical, biological and
    human systems.
  • Despite local differences, strong patterns
    emerge.
  • Such patterns provide empirical models of human
    response to large environmental change.

5
Siglufjörður, North Iceland
Traditional
196566
After Vilhjalmsson 1997
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  • The herring years were special, indescribable.
    And they will never come again.
    Siglufjörður resident

8
Siglufjörður in March 2003
9
Herring catch and salinity, 19052000
Late-1960s herring collapse coincided with
arrival of an Arctic-origin Great Salinity
Anomaly GSA70s
10
Biomass, catch and mortality, 19502000
Herring biomass was declining from overfishing
before GSA70s
11
Population of Siglufjörður, 18902000
Siglufjörður population declined as N Iceland
herring declined and the fishery needed less
labor.
12
Faroe Islands, Northeast Atlantic
13
Faroese landings of demersal fish from home
waters, 1961-2000
Fisheries crisis ca. 1985-95. Overfishing
plus physical change (GSA80s?).
14
Faroe Islands total population 1970-2000
Faroes population 13 lower than pre-crisis trend
15
Faroe Islands cod catch and net migration
1980-2000
Net migration follows cod catches, with lag of
1-2 years, 1982-96
16
Net migration by sex and age group, crisis years
1989-95
Crisis-years net migration more men than women
leaving, ages 25 and higher. More women than men
leaving, ages 15-24.
17
  • Newfoundland, showing Northern Peninsula and
    northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

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Winners and losers from ecological change
Landings value in 3 regions, 1986-98
20
Integrating time series across disciplines
Newfoundlands Northern Peninsula and the
northern Gulf of St. Lawrence
21
General patterns
  • Dramatic spikes followed by steep declines often
    characterize modern fisheries.
  • Declines reflect interaction between fishing
    pressure and climate.
  • Long-lived species have adapted to decadal-scale
    climatic variations.
  • Fisheries remove predators and larger fish,
    leaving less robust ecosystems behind.
  • Invertebrates become more abundant.
  • Outmigration reshapes human populations, and
    affects prospects for sustainable development.

22
Small places see outmigration and demographic
change.
  • Net migration is a sensitive indicator.
  • Young adults first to leave.
  • Older, less educated population remains.
  • Transfer-payment dependency grows.
  • Regional centers expand.

23
Social factors influence the differential
outcomes among people and places.
  • Economic diversification is a difficult goal.
  • New fisheries risk depletion, like the old.
  • Tourism is Plan B everywhere.
  • Government investments are vital, but often
    fail.
  • Some communities are more cohesive, effective
    than others.

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THE END
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