International Political Science Association 20th World Congress Fukuoka, July 9 - 13, 2006

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International Political Science Association20th
World Congress Fukuoka, July 9 - 13, 2006

• Political Atlas of the World
• AN EXPERIMENT WITH 5 INDICES
• Andrei Melville, Yuri Polunin, Mikhail Ilyin,
• Mikhail Mironyuk, Elena Meleshkina, Ivan Timofeev
• Moscow State Institute of International Relations
  (MGIMO-University), Institute for Public
  Programming, Expert magazine
• Please do not quote without permission of the
  authors

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DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
EVALUATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND REGIMES

• Ted Robert Gurr et al. POLITY II, POLITY III,
  POLITY IV (Indicators of Democracy and Autocracy)
• Tatu Vanhanen Index of Democratization
  (Competition Participation)
• Freedom House Political Rights Civil Liberties
• Bertelsmann Stiftung BTI Board Bertelsmann
  Transformation Index
• Transparency International Corruption Perception
  Index, Global Corruption Barometer
• A.T. Kearney Foreign Policy Magazine
  Globalization Index
• The Fund for Peace Foreign Policy Magazine
  Failed States Index
• Journalists without Borders Press Freedom Index
• Cato Institute Economic Freedom of the World
• UNDP Human Development Report
• World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness
  Report
• World Bank research projects
• etc.

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POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD

• Project of MGIMO-University and Expert magazine
• Director of the project - Andrei Melville
• Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) - Yuri
  Polunin
• Consultants - Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina,
  Tatyana Alexeeva, Victor Sergeev, Oxana
  Kharitonova
• Deputy Director - Mikhail Mironyuk
• Deputy Co-Director (mathematics and statistics)
  
• Ivan Timofeev
• 50 country experts, assistants, editors, etc.

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• STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT 3
  tracks(1) Encyclopedia of Political Systems of
  the World(2) Multi-dimensional Indices and
  Ratings of 192 () countries
  (3) Multi-dimensional classification of
  192 () countries and analytical reports

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ASSUMPTIONS

• Multi-dimensional comparative analysis and
  evaluation vs. one-dimensional
• Complex variables
• Statistical databases (UN, UNESCO, World Bank,
  WTO, International Health Organization, SIPRI,
  Inter-Parliamentary Union, national statistics,
  national constitutions and laws, etc.)
• Quantification of qualitative information
• Statistical analysis (regression, correlation,
  factorial, discriminant, etc. types of analysis)

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5 INDICES

• Index of state consistency
• Index of international influence
• Index of national threats
• Index of institutional foundations of democracy
• Quality of life index

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SOURCES OF DATA

• UN, UNDP, UNESCO, FAO, WHO, UNAIDS
• World Bank (World Development Indicators)
• IMF
• WTO
• WIPO
• SIPRI
• Inter-Parliamentary Union
• National Constitutions and Laws
• Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict
  Research
• Center for Systemic Peace
• Federation of American Scientists
• Political Handbook of the World (Congressional
  Quarterly Press)
• Encyclopaedia Britannica
• National statistics, etc.

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SPSS data base(for multi-dimensional indices and
ratings)

• 192 countries ()
• 70 variables
• 13,400 figures

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INDEX OF STATE CONSISTENCY

• Duration of sovereign stateness
• Foreign aid, of GNI
• Indebtedness
• Foreign military presence/deployment in the
  country
• Casualties of internal conflicts
• Regions involved in internal conflicts
• Intensity of internal conflicts
• Applications for patents by residents vs.
  applications by non-residents
• Ethnic composition (share of ethnic majority)
• Exchange rate regimes

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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE

• Share of world GDP
• Share of world goods and services exports
• Contribution to the UN regular budget
• IMF members voting power
• Membership in the Paris club (official creditors)
• Permanent membership in the UN Security Council
• Share of world population
• Nobel prize winners

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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE (cont.)

• Military expenditure (in constant US dollars)
• Armed forces personnel
• Nuclear weapons
• Advanced military systems
• Military deployments abroad

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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS

• Threats of external aggression
• Terrorist threats (from abroad or within)
• Territorial disputes
• Separatist and/or antigovernment activities
• Nonviolent secessionist movements
• Military governments or attempts of military coups

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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS (cont.)

• Undiversified exports (one or two primary export
  commodities)
• Constant trade deficit
• Dependence on fuel imports
• Probability of natural disasters
• Water shortage
• Undernourishment and famine
• Depopulation
• Excessive migration
• HIV/AIDS epidemic

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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY

• Parliamentary elections competition
• Head of the executive elections competition
• Duration of an uninterrupted minimal competition
  tradition (since 1945)
• Electoral inclusiveness (share of registered
  voters to total population)
• Share of women in parliament (lower chamber)

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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY
(cont.)

• Performance of democratic institutions
• - no military coups or unconstitutional regime
  changes
• - not more than two terms held by the head of
  state/executive (former and acting)
• - no referendum to extend term for the head of
  state/executive
• - competitive elections without interruption
• - influence of parliament on the appointment of
  the government

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QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX

• Life expectancy at birth
• Death rate (combined)
• Infant mortality
• GDP per capita
• Combined gross enrolment ratio for primary,
  secondary and tertiary schools
• Public health expenditure per capita

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5 indicesan experiment with discriminant
analysis

• Samples of countries for discriminant analysis
• Countries rankings

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Index of state consistencyCountries in the
sample for discriminant analysis

• Sufficient state consistency
• Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China,
  Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Iran, Italy,
  Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa,
  Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA
• Insufficient state consistency
• Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
  Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, the
  Democratic Republic Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia,
  Haiti, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Moldova,
  Nepal, Rwanda, Serbia and Montenegro (prior to
  dissolution), Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan

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Index of state consistency (0 - 10) examples
Country Group Index Rank
USA Sufficient state consistency 10 1
Japan Sufficient state consistency 9,34 2
Germany Sufficient state consistency 8,93 4
Korea (South) Sufficient state consistency 8,53 8
China Sufficient state consistency 8,24 12
Argentina Sufficient state consistency 8,07 17
Russia Sufficient state consistency 7,5 27
South Africa Sufficient state consistency 7,35 30
Saudi Arabia Sufficient state consistency 6,99 41
Iran Sufficient state consistency 6,97 43
Hungary Sufficient state consistency 6,88 45
Indonesia Sufficient state consistency 5,84 67
India Sufficient state consistency 5,42 81
Korea (North) Insufficient state consistency 5,01 98
Ukraine Insufficient state consistency 4,35 113
Ethiopia Insufficient state consistency 2,66 154
Central African Republic Insufficient state consistency 0,81 188
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Index of international influenceCountries in the
sample for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high influence
• Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China,
  France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel,
  Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Pakistan,
  Russia, South Africa, Turkey, UK
• Relatively low influence
• Afghanistan, Bolivia, Botswana, Congo, Estonia,
  Georgia, Iceland, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Liberia,
  Malawi, Mongolia, Namibia, Paraguay, Rwanda,
  Slovenia, Somalia, Uruguay, the Zambia

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Index of international influence (0 - 10)
examples
Country Group Index Rank
USA Relatively high influence 10,00 1
China Relatively high influence 3,93 2
Japan Relatively high influence 3,25 3
Germany Relatively high influence 3,24 4
Russia Relatively high influence 2,60 7
India Relatively high influence 2,28 8
Saudi Arabia Relatively high influence 1,69 10
Korea (North) Relatively high influence 1,25 12
Korea (South) Relatively high influence 1,02 16
Iran Relatively low influence 0,83 20
Indonesia Relatively low influence 0,81 22
Ukraine Relatively low influence 0,59 29
Argentina Relatively low influence 0,56 31
South Africa Relatively low influence 0,49 34
Hungary Relatively low influence 0,29 53
Ethiopia Relatively low influence 0,22 62
Central African Republic Relatively low influence 0,02 160
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Index of national threats Countries in the
sample for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high level of threats
• Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina-Faso,
  Cambodia, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
  Ethiopia, Georgia, India, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon,
  Liberia, Myanmar, Niger, Philippines, Somalia,
  Tajikistan, the Zambia.
• Relatively low level of threats
• Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada,
  the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany,
  Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar,
  Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK,
  the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay.

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Index of national threats (0 - 10) examples
Country Group Index Rank
Ethiopia Relatively high threats 10,00 1
Central African Republic Relatively high threats 7,57 10
India Relatively high threats 5,99 44
Indonesia Relatively high threats 5,99 45
Iran Relatively high threats 5,34 57
Korea (North) Relatively high threats 4,89 68
China Relatively high threats 4,48 78
Russia Relatively high threats 4,34 81
Korea (South) Relatively high threats 4,28 82
Japan Relatively low threats 4,03 87
Saudi Arabia Relatively low threats 3,63 101
USA Relatively low threats 3,06 118
South Africa Relatively low threats 2,37 136
Ukraine Relatively low threats 2,27 141
Argentina Relatively low threats 2,07 146
Hungary Relatively low threats 1,02 172
Germany Relatively low threats 0,77 181
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Index of institutional foundations of democracy
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Sufficient institutional foundations
• Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile,
  Costa-Rica, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark,
  Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland,
  Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New
  Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia,
  Slovenia, Switzerland, UK, USA.
• Insufficient institutional foundations
• Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Cameroon, China,
  Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti,
  Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Korea (North), Laos,
  Libya, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Somalia,
  Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, the United Arab
  Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe.

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Index of institutional foundations of democracy
(0-10) examples
Country Group Index Rank
Austria Sufficient institutional foundations 8,09 9
India Sufficient institutional foundations 7,35 16
USA Sufficient institutional foundations 7,3 18
Hungary Sufficient institutional foundations 6,94 28
Argentina Sufficient institutional foundations 6,91 29
Korea (South) Sufficient institutional foundations 6,62 34
Ukraine Sufficient institutional foundations 6,46 42
Japan Sufficient institutional foundations 6,46 43
Indonesia Sufficient institutional foundations 5,44 86
Russia Sufficient institutional foundations 5,24 93
South Africa Sufficient institutional foundations 5,23 94
Ethiopia Insufficient institutional foundations 4,03 124
Central African Republic Insufficient institutional foundations 3,2 139
Iran Insufficient institutional foundations 1,76 161
China Insufficient institutional foundations 0,69 178
Korea (North) Insufficient institutional foundations 0,68 179
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Quality of life index Countries in the sample
for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high quality of life
• Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark,
  Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland,
  Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
  Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA.
• Relatively low quality of life
• Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, the
  Central African Republic, Chad, Dominican
  Republic, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory
  Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda,
  Sierra Leone, Tanzania, the Zambia, Zimbabwe.

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Quality of life index (0 - 10) examples
Country Group Index Rank
USA Relatively high quality 6,53 5
Japan Relatively high quality 6,05 14
Germany Relatively high quality 5,55 22
Korea (South) Relatively high quality 4,66 33
Hungary Relatively high quality 3,80 43
Argentina Relatively high quality 3,58 46
Saudi Arabia Relatively low quality 3,21 56
Russia Relatively low quality 2,68 73
Iran Relatively low quality 2,49 85
China Relatively low quality 2,35 95
Ukraine Relatively low quality 2,20 101
South Africa Relatively low quality 2,00 111
Indonesia Relatively low quality 1,86 116
India Relatively low quality 1,60 125
Korea (North) Relatively low quality 1,46 131
Ethiopia Relatively low quality 0,33 186
Central African Republic Relatively low quality 0,00 192
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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES

• General trends
• Deviations
• Anomalies

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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES
Index of state consistency Index of national threats Index of institutional foundations of democracy Quality of life index Index of international influence
Index of state consistency 1,000 -0,627 0,465 0,761 0,581
Index of national threats -0,627 1,000 -0,534 -0,813 -0,166
Index of institutional foundations of democracy 0,465 -0,534 1,000 0,570 0,156
Quality of life index 0,761 -0,813 0,570 1,000 0,321
Influence and involvement index 0,581 -0,166 0,156 0,321 1,000
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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES
Index of Institutional foundations of democracy Polity IV ID (Vanhanen) Political rights (FH) Civil liberties (FH)
Index of Institutional foundations of democracy 1,000 0,844 0,839 -0,817 -0,810
Polity IV 0,844 1,000 0,813 -0,903 -0,885
ID (Vanhanen) 0,839 0,813 1,000 -0,803 -0,801
Political rights (FH) -0,817 -0,903 -0,803 1,000 0,951
Civil liberties (FH) -0,810 -0,885 -0,801 0,951 1,000
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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES (cont.)
HDI
Quality of life index 0,931
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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

• 1. Considerable level of state consistency
• Russia is in 27 rank of the State consistency
  index after China (12), Italy (18), Belgium (25).
• Leaders are USA (1), Japan (2), Germany (4),
  France (7).

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

• 2. Profound international influence
• Russia is 7 (after USA, China, Japan, Germany,
  France and UK and ahead of India, Italy, Canada,
  Brazil).
• 11 leaders of the rating are G8 China and India

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

• 3. Moderate national threats
• Russia is in 81 rank of the national threats
  index together with Israel and South Korea.
• Russia faces a variety of national threats
  (terrorism, territorial disputes, undiversified
  exports, depopulation, HIV/AIDS epidemic, etc.)
• Russia is surrounded by a wide zone of countries
  with grave national threats (Afghanistan, Iran,
  Iraq, North Korea, Azerbaijan, India, etc.)

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

• 4. Fairly average institutional foundations of
  democracy
• Russia is 93 (lower than Peru but higher than
  South Africa)
• Leaders of the rating are Switzerland, Canada,
  Netherlands, Denmark and Norway USA are 18.

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

• 5. Average quality of life
• Russia is 73 (Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico, etc.)
• Leaders of the rating are Luxembourg, Ireland,
  Norway, USA, Iceland, Australia, etc.)

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An experiment with factor analysis

• Searching for the principle components
• Presentation of countries in the components
  space
• Analysis of structures, composed by countries in
  the components space

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Principle components and their explanatory
potential
Component Cumulative
1 55,366
2 81,752
3 93,039
4 100,000
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5 indices in the components space (components 1
and 2)
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Countries in the components space (components 1
and 2)
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• to be continued