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IEDC 2007 National Conference September 18, 2007

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Title: IEDC 2007 National Conference September 18, 2007


1
  • IEDC 2007 National Conference September 18, 2007

2
Who are the Baby Boomers?
3
This is the issue
  • Starting in five years and lasting for more than
    a decade, the nation, states, and localities
    will face a huge potential loss of their most
    productive and skilled workers due to
    retirement,
  • while…
  • the younger workforce
    will be too small,
    unskilled and
    inexperienced to fill the gap.

4
Unprecedented skills and workforce
shortages Declining labor productivity
Enormous health and services expenses Declining
revenues
5
In this session we will explore
6
The Speakers
The Situation George Robertson Americas
Communities Workforce 2010
Solutions Being Taken Bill Fredrick Public/Privat
e/Non-Profit Sector Efforts
7
AMERICAS COMMUNITIES WORKFORCE 2010
  • George Robertson
  • Cenla Advantage Partnership
  • September 18, 2007
  • IEDC Annual Conference

8
THE PERFECT STORM FOR A WORKFORCE DISASTER

9

ELEMENT ONE… TECHNOLOGY EXPLOSION
  • Growth of knowledge is exponential
  • Decade of the nineties…all knowledge on Planet
    Earth will double

10
3000 NEW BOOKS ARE PUBLISHED
  • DAILY

11
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB
  • 200 BILLION
  • DOUBLING EVERY 6 MONTHS

12
TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOW DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS
  • A student starting a four-year engineering degree
    last September…
  • Will have to re-learn as a junior what they were
    taught as a freshman, because it will be
    outdated.

13
2010 AMERICAN REALITY
  • An unprecedented number of baby boomers will
    retire in the U.S.
  • And be replaced by a smaller generation
  • …less well educated
  • …less prepared with specialized skills needed by
    a high-tech economy

14
TOO MANY WORKERS WITH THE WRONG SKILLS
  • Majority of parents, students, and educators
    have outdated at best and misinformed at worst
    knowledge of new career opportunities…
  • And they know even less about what education
    or specialized training is needed for these
    high-paying careers

15
GETTING THE WRONG DEGREES
  • More U.S. students degrees last year in Parks and
    Recreation
  • than in Electrical Engineering

16
ENGINEERING DEGREES
  • UNITED STATES
  • All Bachelor Degrees Engineering
  • 71,386
  • 65,195
  • Electrical
    Engineering
  • 1988
    24,367
  • 2001
    12,292
  • 60
    foreign students

17
THREATENED BY GLOBAL HIGHER EDUCATION TRENDS
  • U.S. college graduates with engineering/technology
    majors 17
  • China 52
  • Korea 34

18
ELEMENT TWO AN AGING WORKFORCE
  • 1976 60 U.S. workforce under 40….
  • 2006 52 over 40

19
THE US TALENT POOL OF SKILLED WORKERS…
will shrink by 6 during the 2010 decade
  • There has never been anything like todays aging
    population…the potential economic meltdown it
    might bring.
  • Edward E. Gordon
  • www.imperialcorp.com

20
OVER 50 OF ALL ENGINEERS IN THE UNITED STATES…
  • Are over age 40
  • Only 4 of NASA scientists and engineers are
    under 30

21
THREATENED BY GLOBAL COMPETITION …….
  • World population growing younger
  • World labor supply growing 80 faster than U.S.

22
THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE IN INDIA UNDER THE AGE OF 10
  • …than there are people in the United States

23
WHEN IT COMES TO WORKFORCE…
  • SIZE
  • MATTERS

24
IN THIRTY MINUTES OF THIS PRESENTATION
  • Babies born in the U.S.
  • 360
  • Babies born in China
  • 1,464
  • Babies born in India
  • 2,106

25
THE TOP 25 OF CHINAS STUDENTS…
  • are more than the entire student population
    of North America

26
WHERE ARE ALL THE SUPERVISORS AND MANAGERS?
  • Valley of the Baby Bust
  • Generation X

27
(No Transcript)
28
FOR RURAL AND SMALL-CITY AMERICA, AN EVEN GREATER
PROBLEM….
The young… the restless…
  • Generation Y larger but migratory…
  • The out-migration of our youth

29
CREATIVE CLASS… A PARADIGM SWITCH
  • Magnet centers….These places are talent magnets
    and talent aggregators. Their key function is to
    provide a regional talent pool into which firms
    can dip as needed and from which new ideas and
    firms bubble up…..places have replaced companies
    as the key organizing units in our economy.
  • Richard Florida
  • The Rise of the Creative Class

30
THE MAGNET CENTERS KEEP EXPANDING
  • 88 Largest MSAs (over 500,000 population)
    represent as of 2005 63 of US population

31
BABY BOOMERS 79 MILLION STRONG
  • Have long distorted U.S. population balance
  • 70 million will exit labor force in next 18
    years
  • TO BE REPLACED BY
  • 40 MILLION WORKERS

32
BOOMER RETIRMENT ….at-risk industries…Illinois
Study
  • Education 17.8
  • Manufacturing 16.4
  • Mining 16.2
  • Other Services 16.2
  • Transport/warehouse 16.2
  • Healthcare 15.5
  • Finance 14.9

33
AGING WORKFORCE US DOL STUDYING 30 STATES
  • IST state report Iowa 2000-2004
  • Manufacturing 18.3 over 55 22.4 in rural
    areas
  • 15 workers statewide over 55
  • 99 Counties 15 had 20 of workforce over 55
  • 99 Counties 95 had increase in older workers
  • MSAs 13.8 rural 16.5
  • 55 industry sectors mining 23, education 22,
    real estate 21, utilities 20
  • Oldest industry agriculture 7.4 over 65

34
...BOOMERS BY SELECTED OCCUPATION IMPACT
(BLS,1998,0ver 45yrs)
  • Farmers 68.5
  • Clergy 56.9
  • Millwrights 56.6
  • Dentists 51.3
  • Teachers 50.3
  • Telecom Installers 49.0
  • Tool and Die Makers 46.7

35
NURSING ALREADY IN CRISIS
  • 80 Master-level nurses retiring next 5 years
  • 38 US Nursing Schools report current faculty
    shortages
  • USDHHS NURSING SHORTAGES PROJ.
  • 2008 450,000
  • 2020 808,000

36
WHY ARENT WE TALKING ABOUT?
  • 85 Science/math teachers K-12 retiring next 5
    years
  • Average age of a plumber in America 58 years
  • Machinists/millwrights old and older

37
WHAT WILL BABY BOOMERS DO?
  • WHY?
  • Money
  • Health Insurance
  • Boredom
  • BUT…
  • A significant number will change career fields
  • 50 say they will work into their 70s

38
WILL BOOMERS REALLY RETIRE?
  • Labor-force participation of those over 55 has
    to increase by 25 starting in 2011 to maintain
    current levels of U.S. productivity
  • BOOMERS 55-64
  • MALES 68 currently working
  • FEMALES 77 currently working

39
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE STUDY 2007 ON LEADING-EDGE
BOOMERS
  • More bad news for rural and small-city America…
  • BOOMERS ARE ON THE MOVE, ALSO

40
PRE-SENIORS AGE 55-64 GROWING-ON THE MOVE
  • World War II generation (over 65 years)
  • Continues to move West, with the exception of
    California and the addition of Florida
  • Leading-edge boomers
  • MOVING
  • Southwest, Southeast, and Northwest

41
LEADING-EDGE BOOMERS FASTEST GROWTH
  • Large MSAs
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Austin, TX
  • Raleigh, NC
  • Atlanta, GA
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Portland, OR
  • Albuquerque, NM
  • Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
  • Orlando, FL
  • Jacksonville, FL
  • Small SMAs
  • Santa Fe, NM
  • Anchorage, AK
  • Bend, OR
  • Coeur dAlene, ID
  • Boise City, ID
  • St. George, UT
  • Fairbanks, AK
  • Flagstaff, AZ
  • Olympia, WA
  • Ft. Collins, CO

42
U.S. CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND GLOBAL STUDIES
  • Countries will have to race against time to
    ensure their economic and social fabric against
    the shock of global aging.

43
A thought..do our communities realize they are in
a race against time?
  • If everything seems under control, youre just
    not going fast enough.
  • Mario Andretti

44
A THOUGHT FOR COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
POLICY
  • Without the workforce of the future…
  • YOU HAVE NO FUTURE

45
A FINAL THOUGHT….
  • When the rate of change on the outside exceeds
    the rate of change on the inside, the end is in
    sight!!
  • Jack Welch, former CEO, General Electric

46
  • GEORGE L. ROBERTSON, PRESIDENT
  • P.O. BOX 465
  • ALEXANDRIA LA. 71309
  • 1-318-767-3001
  • WWW. CAPCENLA.ORG

47
(No Transcript)
48
The Need to Retain
  • Increasing US labor participation needed among
    55 year-olds for 2 annual economic growth
  • 2003 77.6
  • 2010 90.4
  • 2020 91.6
  • (Source Strategies to Retain Older Workers,
    Pension Research Council Working Paper,
    The Wharton School, 2004)

49
National Governors Association
  • Recognized the issue of massive Boomer retirement
    and its broad-based threat
  • State-based strategy taken one-year, 8-state
    Policy Academy
  • Arizona as mentor
  • Interact with peers and national experts
  • Next 2 years in planning stage RFPs

50
National Governors Association
GOAL
  • Ensure states are providing employment and
    volunteer options to future and new retirees,
    including baby boomers

51
National Governors Association
  • Policy Academy Objectives
  • Position states as role models
  • Identify needs of the labor market
  • Review current state policies affecting older
    adults
  • Develop new information tools
  • Enhance training and educational opportunities

52
State Initiatives
  • Wyoming
  • Boomers and Business Initiative
  • New York
  • Project 2015
  • Utah
  • Aging Initiative
  • (Source NGA Center for Best Practices)

53
State Efforts
  • Iowa, Mississippi, Pennsylvania
  • modified unemployment compensation policies
  • California, Florida, Kansas, and West Virginia
  • higher-ed phased retirement options
  • Iowa
  • phased retirement for state employees a model
    for the private sector
  • Wisconsin
  • employer assessment toolkit to evaluate
    mature-worker friendliness
  • (Source NGA Center for Best Practices)

54
AARP Aging Workforce Advisory Council
  • Serve as a think tank
  • Provide understanding of the effects of the
    global aging of the workforce
  • Be a sounding board and implementation vehicle
    for targeted industry groups

55
AARP Aging Workforce Advisory Council
  • Share information on workplace best-practices re
    mature workers
  • recruitment
  • retention
  • and (re)-training
  • Annual workforce summits and position papers on
    the issue

56
Private-Sector Actions
  • For employers…
  • …the impending large Boomer retirement is more an
    operational issue than an HR issue

57
Private-Sector Actions
  • Employer options
  • Recruit younger workers
  • Become more involved in workforce development and
    training consortia, partnerships
  • Greater use of apprenticeships, internships
  • Outsource work (domestic, foreign)

58
Private-Sector Actions
  • Employer options
  • Hire recruiters, contractors, staffing services
  • Import foreign labor (H1-B, H2-B, TN, L-1 visas)
  • Adapt innovative flexible HR policies for
    not-employed and a multi-generational and diverse
    workforce employer-of-choice policies
  • Improve productivity
  • Keep employees past age 65
  • Downsize, close or relocate

59
Private-Sector Actions
  • Retaining mature workers frequently makes the
    best business case
  • Cost effective
  • Knowledge retention
  • Operating efficiency
  • Quality workers
  • …but all workforce-related efforts would be
    needed or considered

60
Private-Sector Actions
  • How employers are preparing to keep mature
    workers
  • (Source Older Workers Survey, Society for Human
    Resource Management 2003)

61
Private-Sector Actions
  • Incentives being used to retain mature employees
  • Flexible work arrangements
  • Training to upgrade skills
  • Time off for volunteerism
  • Phased retirement
  • Reduced shift work
  • Job rotation
  • Sabbaticals
  • Reduced responsibility
  • Mentoring as a primary job
  • (Source Valuing Experience How to Motivate and
    Retain Mature Workers, The Conference
    Board, 2003)

62
Private-Sector Actions
  • IBM
  • Transition to Teaching aims to help older
    employees transition into second careers as math
    and science teachers
  • Pilot program in New York and North Carolina
  • (Source NGA Center for Best Practices)

63
Private-Sector Actions
  • CVS Pharmacy
  • Mentoring program for senior pharmacists to high
    school students and apprentice pharmacist
    technicians
  • Training opportunities for mature workers at the
    company
  • (Source NGA Center for Best Practices)

64
Private-Sector Actions
  • Prudential Financial
  • Programs and policies for Boomers as caregivers
    for elderly parents
  • (Source NGA Center for Best Practices)

65
Local Boomer Impact
  • The local Boomer impact …
  • …will vary significantly by location.
  • Impact factors include labor-force dynamics and
    the size of the Boomer population.
  • WDGs Boomer Stress Index shows considerable
    impact variations among the 362 metro areas.

66
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • For every complex, difficult problem, there is a
    simple, easy solution… and it is wrong.
  • H.L. Mencken

67
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • First
  • For this complex situation, avoid the
    single-solution approach
  • Use a full-solution approach

68
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Second
  • Identify the issues
  • Recognize how your area will be affected and know
    your assets/ challenges
  • Create a plan, segment tasks, and activate
  • Promote public recognition of the issue

69
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Identify stakeholders, build alliances, leverage
    work, coordinate, and share resources and tasks
    with…

70
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • …SHRM/employers
  • …Workforce Boards
  • …Universities/colleges/tech, public schools
  • …State/local AARP office
  • …Government officials
  • …Residential developers and realtors
  • …Unions
  • …Intra-state alliances

71
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Serve as a catalyst for educator-training
    programs
  • Match needs of employers
  • Adult, non-credit
  • For-credit
  • Employer customized
  • Work for improved public schools, basic skills,
    housing

72
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Serve as a catalyst for employer action…
  • …Retain and hire employees 55 as policy
  • …Knowledge retention
  • …HR/management policies for mature workers
  • …Multi-generational, diverse workforce management
  • …Training programs
  • …Consortia development for training academies
  • …Career planning for X and Y generations

73
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Promote the value of the mature workforce
  • Promote the business case for mature workers
  • Provide new information tools and improve
    existing systems that connect 55 workers to
    employment opportunities
  • Job, career counseling for Boomers, 65
  • Y generation basic skills, career planning, STEM
    careers (America Competes Act)

74
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Retain and recruit skilled Boomers
  • Retain and recruit Xers and Yers
  • Retain college/university students
  • Institute Come Home programs
  • Labor-law lobbying for 65 workforce regulations
  • Understand QOL and career issues, and other needs
    for each group

75
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Collect and publicize employer best-practices
  • Provide immigrant workforce recruiting assistance
  • Visa information
  • Recruiter, labor broker coordination
  • National immigration policy lobbying
  • Be creative
  • With partners collaborate, innovate, advocate

76
  • 505 Morris Avenue, Suite 102
  • Springfield, NJ 07081
  • 973-379-7700
  • wfredrick_at_wadley-donovan.com
  • www.wadley-donovan.com

77
  • Sharon Younger, President
  • Younger Associates

78
Summary
  • In five years, we will see the frontal wave of
    Boomer retirements…..
  • …….which will grow in intensity and last for over
    10 years, likely creating significant economic
    and workforce impacts, including large scale
    across the board labor shortages
  • …….and the X and Y generations will not be able
    to fill the void under current conditions
  • …….while impact intensity will vary geographically

79
Summary
But corrective action has started and something
can be done…
  • …by local and state EDOs
  • …by employers
  • …by educators
  • …by WIBs
  • …by governments
  • …by non-profits
  • …by others

80
Summary
  • This action must be comprehensive and
    collaborative, but new models and mindsets are
    needed.

We have some time!
81
Follow-up
  • For copies of this presentation and reference
    material from the National Governors
    Association, the Arizona Mature Workforce
    Initiative, the WDG Boomer MSA Stress Index, the
    WDG MSA Talented-Young Index, and other resources
    and sources used in this presentation, visit
  • www.wadley-donovan.com/workforce

82
  • THANK YOU!

www.wadley-donovan.com/workforce
Background Image credit NASA, ESA, and the
Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble
Collaboration
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