Secretariat of State of Environment and Natural Resources Under Secretariat of Environment Management National Office of Climate Change CGE Hands on training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Latin America and the Caribbean

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Secretariat of State of Environment and Natural
ResourcesUnder Secretariat of Environment
ManagementNational Office of Climate ChangeCGE
Hands on training Workshop on Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessments for Latin America and the
Caribbean RegionAsuncion, Paraguay14-18 August
2006

• Experience of the Dominican Republic
• In Assessing the Impact of Climate Change in the
  Water Sector.
• Juan Mancebo
• Climate change coordinator

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17 36 19 58 latitud Norte 68 19 72
01 longitud Oeste 8.562.541 habitantes
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INTRODUCTION

• The Vulnerability of the Caribbean Countries to
  the effect of the Climate Changes had been
  appreciated for all of us for differed way
• The incidence of hurricane each time with more
  intensity
• Large period of draught
• Currently flows
• Or one beach that disappear

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• Raining season of the Dominican Republic

• Frontal season (November April),
• Convective season (May July)
• Cyclonic season (August October)
• The spatial distribution result in a rain
  system very complex according to the geography
  relief

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Monthly distribution of the rainfall. Base Line
1961 - 1990
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Spatial distribution of the lamina of rainfall in
the base line .
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The annual rainfall and the middle infiltration
for time series 1961 - 1990
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Temporal annual Series of the lamina of rainfall
for the period 1961-1990.
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Climate Scenery
For the future climate change we used the General
Circulation Model that permit the consideration
of more uncertainties, (MAGIC/ SCENGEN) The
temporal Horizon was of fourth period 2010,
2030, 2050, 2100 and as Emission Scenery

• IS92c, with climate sensibility low (?T1.5ºC)
• IS92a, ) with climate sensibility middle
  (?T2.5ºC)
• IS92f. With climate sensibility high (?T4.5ºC).

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Temperature and rainfall value for the year 2100.
Model HADCM2, and emission scenery IS92f
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VULNERABILITY IMPACTHYDROLOGY SECTOR
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Subdivision of watersheds and hydrological areas
of the Dominican Republic (according to OAS,
1967).
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General hydrological data
Hydrological balance in Dominican Republic
(values in thousands of millions m3

• The annual rainfall for the country averaged
  1,500 mm distributed in approximately 110 days,
  with spatial variations from 2,700 mm in some
  areas of the Northeast to 450 mm in the Neiba
  Valley.
• The rains produce an annual volume of 73 thousand
  millions of m3
• 51 thousand millions of m3 are lost by
  evaporation and transpiration.
• The remaining 22 thousand millions of m3 refill
  the rivers, streams and lagoons and infiltrates
  into the underground
• The average final available volume averages
  yearly of 15 to 20 thousand millions of m3
  available for different uses.
• The potential of underground water has been
  estimated annually in 1,500 to 1,600 millions of
  m3
• Historically the exploitation of the water
  resource has centered more in the superficial
  waters due to its abundance. The total demand of
  water is from 8,000 to 9,000 millions of m3/año.

B
Rainfall (73)
Evaporation and transpiration (51)
Superficial water (15-20)
Underground water (1-2)
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OBJECTIVE OF THE EVALUATION OF VA
-To establish a hydrology base line for the
Dominican Republic-To establish hydrology
scenarios-To make recommendations for
adaptation measurement -The global hydrology
balance for the country was made for the yeas
2010 2030 2050 2100-For the underground
water the rate of the sea level was taking into
consideration using the climate models-The
deterioration of the hydrological reservation of
underground water was only made for year 2100
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• The global Hydrological balances for the country
  select regions ware made for the years 2010,
  2030, 2050, 2100.
• For the undergrowth water we take into
  consideration the increase of the sea level that
  was obtained with the climate models used.
• The deterioration of the undergrowth hydrology
  reserve only take into consideration the year
  2100 for the best appreciation of the climate
  change impact, for be it a slowing and complex
  process.

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Methodology use for the Evaluation of Impact for
the rain variable calculation and the evaporation
and transpiration

• Expert juice

Statistical

1. Thornthwaite

2. Turc I, II
3. Perman,
4. Total flow

• Marine saline trespass
• (that use the model Ghyben Herzberg)

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Hydrology balance for the sceneries of Climate
Change

• CSRT (emission scenery IS92c)
• ECH4 (emission scenery IS92a)
• HADM2 (emission scenery IS92f).

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Estimate hydrology balance for climate scenery
for model HADCM2, with emission scenery IS92f
Year P T C Ep Er Q W
2010 1277 25.0 1706 1022 255 12334
2030 1137 25.7 1791 960 177 8570
2050 976 26.5 1889 867 109 5287
2100 543 28.6 2186 526 17 806
Unit mm, Wmillion M3, temp inc. 4.2 C
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The Model HADCM2 show the scenery more drastic
for water supply if we dont reduce significantly
the green house gases emission. In this climate
scenerya) Temperature increase 4.2 0C b) The
rainfall decrease approximately 60 for the next
100 years. C) The volume of draining will be
reduce in a 95 for the year 2100. The critic
situation described with the model had a great
coincidence with results obtained by meteorology
Office of united Kingdom in 1998, when pointed
that the East Caribbean will be the more dry zone
in each scenery and model use.
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Evaluation of water supply for development -Index
of water Availability (IWA) -Index of scarcity of
water Classification of the availability of water
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Evolution of the IWA according with the tree
sceneries
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-The actual exploitation of water resources is
about 3,000 millions of M3-Using the model
(CSRT) for the scenery more favorable in the year
2030 the IWA will be below the critical level
about 1,000 millions of M3.
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Measurement of adaptation for the hydrology sector

• Build new dam and improvement of the existent
  capacity
• -Increase of the efficiency of water management
  and protect this resources from contamination
• Give a special importance to underground water
  for the fragility of this resourcesTo increase
  the hydraulics infrastructure

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Measurement of adaptation for the hydrology sector

• Build new dam and improvement of the existent
  capacity
• -Increase of the efficiency of water management
  and protect this resources from contamination
• Give a special importance to underground water
  for the fragility of this resourcesTo increase
  the hydraulics infrastructure

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Thank for you attention