Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in Higher Education

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Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in
Higher Education

• Curt Bonk, Professor
• Indiana University
• cjbonk_at_indiana.edu
• http//php.indiana.edu/cjbonk

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I Tried Getting Inspiration
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What about the Catalog of Tomorrow?
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Thirty-two Trends Affecting Distance
EducationAn Informed Foundation for Strategic
Planning (Howell, Williams, Lindsay, 2003,
Online Journal of Distance Learning
Administration, 6(3), Fall, 2003
Could I steal some ideas?

• Student and Faculty Issues
• Students want qualifications, small modules,
  programs
• Faculty roles are shifting (more nontenure-track
  in DE).
• Faculty support for DE is a key issue.
• Many want reduced workload or increased .
• Most DE is now Web-based increases 40 per year
• Instruction is becoming more learner-centered
  (SDL)

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Might I borrow a timeline?The End of the PC Era,
Newsweek, Nov 24, 2003, p. 57
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How about creating a survey?

• Sent to MERLOT.org members on last week of
  November, 2003
• Received 355 responses
• 55 female
• 70 lecturers and professors
• 20 administrators or tech support
• 50 public colleges 16 private 23 community
  colleges 4 online colleges

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Ten Trends for Educa Berlin

1. Blended Learning is All Learning
2. Enrollments in Certificates Short Programs
3. Inc. Focus on Instructor Training Rewards
4. Demand for Freelance Instructors Grows
5. Course Interactivity Performance are Vital to
   Accreditation
6. Reality Teaching Learning, Not Reality TV
7. Course Quality Issues Become Pervasive
8. The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go Away
9. Novel Educational Partnerships Emerge
10. Educational Technology Outpaces Theory

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Trend 1. Blended Learning is All Learning
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The Sloan Consortium(2003). Sizing the
Opportunity The Quality and Extent of Online
Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http//www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportuni
ty.pdf
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Why the term blended?(Osguthorpe Graham, 2003,
Blended Learning Environments Definitions and
Directions)

• Hybrid is the interbreeding of two different
  species of animals or plants to create a new
  species (i.e., a mongrel)
• Blended focuses on the mingling together in ways
  that lead to a well-balanced combination (i.e.,
  to mix)

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Blended Learning Defined The Sloan
Consortium(2003). Sizing the Opportunity The
Quality and Extent of Online Education in the
U.S., 2002 and 2003 http//www.sloan-c.org/resour
ces/sizing_opportunity.pdf
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Indiana Univ (8 campuses) Fall 2003Students
99,693 loaded 77,407 logged inFaculty 7,461
loaded 5,532 logged inCourses 22,974 loaded
7332 active
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Illinois Virtual Campus (Fall 2003
Newsletter)Ivan Lach, istovall_at_uillinois.edu
http//www.ivc.illinois.edu/Newsletter/03_10/enrol
lment.htm

• 68 Illinois institutions (public and private,
  2-year and 4-year)
• 3,951 course sections in spr 03
• 50,125 students, spring 03 (24 inc.)
• 125,074 online students during year (54
  increase)
• 34,399 for summer 04 (45 increase)

http//www.ivc.illinois.edu/ (Oakley, 2003)
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Karen Lazenby (2003), Univ of Pretoria
Per Herman van der Merwe, Dec 2, 2003, this will
likely grow to 20,000 this year.
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Trend 2. Enrollments in Certificates and Short
Programs
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SUNY Learning Network(Burks Oakley, 2003)
Growth in online degree and certificate programs
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Trend 3 Increased Focus on Teacher Training and
Rewards
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Online Teaching Certificates

• University of Wisconsin
• 12-18 month self-paced certificate program, 20
  CEUs, 2,500-3,185
• Integrates into practical experiences
• Cater to busy working professionals
• Open enrollment and self-paced
• Illinois Online Networks (ION) Master Online
  Teacher
• 4 core courses, 1 elective course, plus a
  supervised practicum

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Trend 4 Greater Reliance on Freelance Instructors
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Global Professor Ratings
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Trend 5 Course Interactivity Performance are
Vital to Accreditation
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Online Performances
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Simulatives, Narratives, etc.
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Are Diverse Student Needs Being Met?
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Trend 6 Reality Teaching and Learning (Andrew
Revkin, New York Times, May 25, 2003)
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7. Course Quality Issues Become Pervasive (need
for quality control police)
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Concerns About Legitimate Degrees
Increase(7-30/page, http//www.syllabus.com/
January, 2002, Phillip Long, Plagiarism
IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)

• http//www.fakedegrees.com/
• http//www.myodegrees.com/
• http//www.boxfreeconcepts.com/magicmill/
• http//www.blackmarket-press.com/
• http//www.bogusphd.com/
• http//www.coastal-retreat.com/degrees/funny.html
• www.counterfeitlibrary.com/cl/qual.asp

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The Sloan Consortium Institution Portion(2003).
Sizing the Opportunity The Quality and Extent of
Online Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http//www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportuni
ty.pdf

• 60 of academic leaders agree that faculty will
  accept the legitimacy of online education
• 57 believe learning outcomes same or better than
  FTF
• 75 expect to be as good in next 3 yrs 1/3 think
  better
• Everyone thinking the quality is on the rise

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Trend 8. The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go
Away(7-30/page, http//www.syllabus.com/
January, 2002, Phillip Long, Plagiarism
IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)

• http//www.turnitin.com/ (software, 100, free 30
  day demo/trial)
• http//www.copycatch.freeserve.co.uk/ (free in
  UK)
• http//www.canexus.com/ (Eve2 software essay
  verification engine, 19.95)
• http//www.plagiarism.org/ (resource)
• http//www.academicintegrity.org/ (assoc.)
• http//sja.ucdavis.edu/avoid.htm (guide)

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Plagiarizing Plagiarism(June 8, 2003 Dartmouth
Review)

• Michael Heberlingan author at the Chronicle and
  president of Baker College for Graduate
  Studiesread an article written in Syllabus
  magazine that looked remarkably like his own
  piece. The subject of the plagiarists piece
  plagiarism.
• the offending author, a graduate student,
  apologized for any passages accidentally
  cut-and-pasted into her own article. Her excuse
  deadline pressure.

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NSSE The College Student Report (National Survey
of Student Engagement (2003, Nov).  Converting
data into action Expanding the boundaries of
institutional improvement.  Bloomington, IN
Indiana University Center for Postsecondary
Research.

• 83 of HE students frequently use Web for their
  classes
• 80 of HE student instructors report that
  instructors often require computer conferencing
• 87 of peers cut and pasted from Web without
  citations

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Trend 9 Many Novel Forms of Online Ed
Partnerships

• An Internet gateway through which learners,
  employers, and learning providers are drawn
  together into a dynamic partnership that creates
  value for learners, enhances economic
  development, and engages institutions in meeting
  the lifelong learning needs of twenty-first
  century learners (2001, xvii).

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Possible Priorities

1. Address a clear learner need
2. Leverage resources share infrastructure
3. Respond to new markets improve competitiveness
4. Enhance access and pedagogy of learning

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Center for Ed Tech Interoperability Standards,
Nov. 24, 2003http//www.cetis.ac.uk/content2/2003
1124150257http//www.sakaiproject.org/sakaiprojec
t/
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Trend 10 Technology Continues to Outpace
TheoryKevin Kluse, November 2003, CLO, Tech
Trends Impacting E-Learning

• Trend 1 More for less (low end PC in 2017 will
  cost 150 and come with 8 GB of RAM and 1.8
  Terabytes of storage space)
• Trend 2 Broadband (from 25 to 68 million in U.S.
  by 2008)
• Trend 3 Wireless Access (time and place of need
  instead of time and desk)
• Trend 4 soon have in palms a supercomputer that
  can make phone calls and surfs the Web at very
  high speeds

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A Brain Charger the Ultimate PDA AccessoryBy
Michael Kanellos, Staff Writer, CNET News.comNov
19, 2003
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E-Learning Technologies of the Future?

1. Assistive Technologies Talking Computers
2. Blogs and Online Diaries
3. Digital Portfolios
4. Electronic Books
5. Online Communities and Learning Portals
6. Intelligent Agents
7. Online Exams and Assessment
8. Online Games and Simulations (Massive Multiplayer
   Gaming)

1. Online Translation Tools Language Lrng
2. Pedagogical Courseware
3. Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
4. Reusable Learning Objects
5. Videostreaming, IP Videoconferencing
6. Virtual Worlds/Reality
7. Wearable Computing
8. Wireless Tech Tablet PCs, Handheld Devices

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• Journal
• Repository
• Place to keep notes
• Practice another language
• And Wiki programs allow for comments

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5. Instructor/Trainer Portals
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8. Simulations Virtual University Administrator
and SimuLearn)
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14. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality

• Avatars--representations of people
• Objects--representations of objects
• Maps--the landscape which can be explored
• Bots--artificial intelligence

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15. Wearable Computing
Memory Glasses!!!
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16. Wireless Technology
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How will additional bandwidth help?
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16. Tablet PCs Finally Taking Off  (Wired News,
Sept 28, 2003)

• And while Promisel said there will be a consumer
  market for tablet PCs -- such as college students
  taking them to class for note-taking -- what
  really needs to happen for the tablet PC to take
  off is the development of new software
  applications for corporate customers. predicts
  that in 2003, a total of 500,000 tablet PCs will
  be sold around the globe, which represents about
  1 percent of the total portable PC marketBut, by
  2007, IDC forecasts that the tablet PC could
  account for well over 20 percent of the portable
  market.

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So, which direction should you go?