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Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in Higher Education

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Title: Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in Higher Education


1
Predictions of the Future of Online Learning in
Higher Education
  • Curt Bonk, Professor
  • Indiana University
  • cjbonk_at_indiana.edu
  • http//php.indiana.edu/cjbonk

2
I Tried Getting Inspiration
3
What about the Catalog of Tomorrow?
4
Thirty-two Trends Affecting Distance
EducationAn Informed Foundation for Strategic
Planning (Howell, Williams, Lindsay, 2003,
Online Journal of Distance Learning
Administration, 6(3), Fall, 2003
Could I steal some ideas?
  • Student and Faculty Issues
  • Students want qualifications, small modules,
    programs
  • Faculty roles are shifting (more nontenure-track
    in DE).
  • Faculty support for DE is a key issue.
  • Many want reduced workload or increased .
  • Most DE is now Web-based increases 40 per year
  • Instruction is becoming more learner-centered
    (SDL)

5
Might I borrow a timeline?The End of the PC Era,
Newsweek, Nov 24, 2003, p. 57
6
How about creating a survey?
  • Sent to MERLOT.org members on last week of
    November, 2003
  • Received 355 responses
  • 55 female
  • 70 lecturers and professors
  • 20 administrators or tech support
  • 50 public colleges 16 private 23 community
    colleges 4 online colleges

7
Ten Trends for Educa Berlin
  • Blended Learning is All Learning
  • Enrollments in Certificates Short Programs
  • Inc. Focus on Instructor Training Rewards
  • Demand for Freelance Instructors Grows
  • Course Interactivity Performance are Vital to
    Accreditation
  • Reality Teaching Learning, Not Reality TV
  • Course Quality Issues Become Pervasive
  • The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go Away
  • Novel Educational Partnerships Emerge
  • Educational Technology Outpaces Theory

8
Trend 1. Blended Learning is All Learning
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The Sloan Consortium(2003). Sizing the
Opportunity The Quality and Extent of Online
Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http//www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportuni
ty.pdf
12
Why the term blended?(Osguthorpe Graham, 2003,
Blended Learning Environments Definitions and
Directions)
  • Hybrid is the interbreeding of two different
    species of animals or plants to create a new
    species (i.e., a mongrel)
  • Blended focuses on the mingling together in ways
    that lead to a well-balanced combination (i.e.,
    to mix)

13
Blended Learning Defined The Sloan
Consortium(2003). Sizing the Opportunity The
Quality and Extent of Online Education in the
U.S., 2002 and 2003 http//www.sloan-c.org/resour
ces/sizing_opportunity.pdf
14
Indiana Univ (8 campuses) Fall 2003Students
99,693 loaded 77,407 logged inFaculty 7,461
loaded 5,532 logged inCourses 22,974 loaded
7332 active
15
Illinois Virtual Campus (Fall 2003
Newsletter)Ivan Lach, istovall_at_uillinois.edu
http//www.ivc.illinois.edu/Newsletter/03_10/enrol
lment.htm
  • 68 Illinois institutions (public and private,
    2-year and 4-year)
  • 3,951 course sections in spr 03
  • 50,125 students, spring 03 (24 inc.)
  • 125,074 online students during year (54
    increase)
  • 34,399 for summer 04 (45 increase)

http//www.ivc.illinois.edu/ (Oakley, 2003)
16
Karen Lazenby (2003), Univ of Pretoria
Per Herman van der Merwe, Dec 2, 2003, this will
likely grow to 20,000 this year.
17
Trend 2. Enrollments in Certificates and Short
Programs
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19
SUNY Learning Network(Burks Oakley, 2003)
Growth in online degree and certificate programs
20
Trend 3 Increased Focus on Teacher Training and
Rewards
21
Online Teaching Certificates
  • University of Wisconsin
  • 12-18 month self-paced certificate program, 20
    CEUs, 2,500-3,185
  • Integrates into practical experiences
  • Cater to busy working professionals
  • Open enrollment and self-paced
  • Illinois Online Networks (ION) Master Online
    Teacher
  • 4 core courses, 1 elective course, plus a
    supervised practicum

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Trend 4 Greater Reliance on Freelance Instructors
28
Global Professor Ratings
29
Trend 5 Course Interactivity Performance are
Vital to Accreditation
30
Online Performances
31
Simulatives, Narratives, etc.
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Are Diverse Student Needs Being Met?
34
Trend 6 Reality Teaching and Learning (Andrew
Revkin, New York Times, May 25, 2003)
35
7. Course Quality Issues Become Pervasive (need
for quality control police)
36
Concerns About Legitimate Degrees
Increase(7-30/page, http//www.syllabus.com/
January, 2002, Phillip Long, Plagiarism
IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)
  • http//www.fakedegrees.com/
  • http//www.myodegrees.com/
  • http//www.boxfreeconcepts.com/magicmill/
  • http//www.blackmarket-press.com/
  • http//www.bogusphd.com/
  • http//www.coastal-retreat.com/degrees/funny.html
  • www.counterfeitlibrary.com/cl/qual.asp

37
The Sloan Consortium Institution Portion(2003).
Sizing the Opportunity The Quality and Extent of
Online Education in the U.S., 2002 and 2003
http//www.sloan-c.org/resources/sizing_opportuni
ty.pdf
  • 60 of academic leaders agree that faculty will
    accept the legitimacy of online education
  • 57 believe learning outcomes same or better than
    FTF
  • 75 expect to be as good in next 3 yrs 1/3 think
    better
  • Everyone thinking the quality is on the rise

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41
Trend 8. The Evil House of Cheat Will Not Go
Away(7-30/page, http//www.syllabus.com/
January, 2002, Phillip Long, Plagiarism
IT-Enabled Tools for Deceit?)
  • http//www.turnitin.com/ (software, 100, free 30
    day demo/trial)
  • http//www.copycatch.freeserve.co.uk/ (free in
    UK)
  • http//www.canexus.com/ (Eve2 software essay
    verification engine, 19.95)
  • http//www.plagiarism.org/ (resource)
  • http//www.academicintegrity.org/ (assoc.)
  • http//sja.ucdavis.edu/avoid.htm (guide)

42
Plagiarizing Plagiarism(June 8, 2003 Dartmouth
Review)
  • Michael Heberlingan author at the Chronicle and
    president of Baker College for Graduate
    Studiesread an article written in Syllabus
    magazine that looked remarkably like his own
    piece. The subject of the plagiarists piece
    plagiarism.
  • the offending author, a graduate student,
    apologized for any passages accidentally
    cut-and-pasted into her own article. Her excuse
    deadline pressure.

43
NSSE The College Student Report (National Survey
of Student Engagement (2003, Nov).  Converting
data into action Expanding the boundaries of
institutional improvement.  Bloomington, IN
Indiana University Center for Postsecondary
Research.
  • 83 of HE students frequently use Web for their
    classes
  • 80 of HE student instructors report that
    instructors often require computer conferencing
  • 87 of peers cut and pasted from Web without
    citations

44
Trend 9 Many Novel Forms of Online Ed
Partnerships
  • An Internet gateway through which learners,
    employers, and learning providers are drawn
    together into a dynamic partnership that creates
    value for learners, enhances economic
    development, and engages institutions in meeting
    the lifelong learning needs of twenty-first
    century learners (2001, xvii).

45
Possible Priorities
  • Address a clear learner need
  • Leverage resources share infrastructure
  • Respond to new markets improve competitiveness
  • Enhance access and pedagogy of learning

46
Center for Ed Tech Interoperability Standards,
Nov. 24, 2003http//www.cetis.ac.uk/content2/2003
1124150257http//www.sakaiproject.org/sakaiprojec
t/
47
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48
Trend 10 Technology Continues to Outpace
TheoryKevin Kluse, November 2003, CLO, Tech
Trends Impacting E-Learning
  • Trend 1 More for less (low end PC in 2017 will
    cost 150 and come with 8 GB of RAM and 1.8
    Terabytes of storage space)
  • Trend 2 Broadband (from 25 to 68 million in U.S.
    by 2008)
  • Trend 3 Wireless Access (time and place of need
    instead of time and desk)
  • Trend 4 soon have in palms a supercomputer that
    can make phone calls and surfs the Web at very
    high speeds

49
A Brain Charger the Ultimate PDA AccessoryBy
Michael Kanellos, Staff Writer, CNET News.comNov
19, 2003
50
E-Learning Technologies of the Future?
  • Assistive Technologies Talking Computers
  • Blogs and Online Diaries
  • Digital Portfolios
  • Electronic Books
  • Online Communities and Learning Portals
  • Intelligent Agents
  • Online Exams and Assessment
  • Online Games and Simulations (Massive Multiplayer
    Gaming)
  • Online Translation Tools Language Lrng
  • Pedagogical Courseware
  • Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
  • Reusable Learning Objects
  • Videostreaming, IP Videoconferencing
  • Virtual Worlds/Reality
  • Wearable Computing
  • Wireless Tech Tablet PCs, Handheld Devices

51
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  • Journal
  • Repository
  • Place to keep notes
  • Practice another language
  • And Wiki programs allow for comments

54
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5. Instructor/Trainer Portals
56
8. Simulations Virtual University Administrator
and SimuLearn)
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14. Virtual Worlds/Virtual Reality
  • Avatars--representations of people
  • Objects--representations of objects
  • Maps--the landscape which can be explored
  • Bots--artificial intelligence

59
15. Wearable Computing
Memory Glasses!!!
60
16. Wireless Technology
61
How will additional bandwidth help?
62
16. Tablet PCs Finally Taking Off  (Wired News,
Sept 28, 2003)
  • And while Promisel said there will be a consumer
    market for tablet PCs -- such as college students
    taking them to class for note-taking -- what
    really needs to happen for the tablet PC to take
    off is the development of new software
    applications for corporate customers. predicts
    that in 2003, a total of 500,000 tablet PCs will
    be sold around the globe, which represents about
    1 percent of the total portable PC marketBut, by
    2007, IDC forecasts that the tablet PC could
    account for well over 20 percent of the portable
    market.

63
So, which direction should you go?
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