Economic and Mortgage Market Update

1
Economic and Mortgage Market Update

• Conference of State Bank Supervisors
• Norfolk, VA
• May 19, 2006
• Mike Fratantoni, Senior Director
• Single Family Research and Economics
• Mortgage Bankers Association

2
Global Capital
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
3
Global Capital
Source U.S. Department of Treasury.
4
Global Capital
Source Federal Reserve Board
5
International Rates Are Rising
Source Financial Times
6
Real GDP growth
3.5
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
7
Unemployment rate
Mar 2006 4.7
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
Inflation - CPI
Percent change, Year-over-Year
March 3.42 2.10
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Unit Labor CostsBusiness Sector
Year over year percent change
.
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Target Federal Funds Rate
Percent, End of month
Source Federal Reserve Board.
11
10 year treasury at constant maturity
Percent, by quarter
Source Federal Reserve Board
12
Treasury yield curve
Percent
Dec-00
Apr-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Source Federal Reserve Board
13
Total home sales
Millions of homes
The sum of existing home sales (including
condos) and new home sales F Forecast
Source National Association of Realtors, Census
Bureau, and MBA Forecast
14
Home sales by region
Thousands, SAAR
South
West
Midwest
Northeast
Source National Association of Realtors
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
Median one-family home prices
Year over year percent change
10.3
2.0
Source National Association of Realtors and
Census Bureau.
18
Condo median price and inventory
Source National Association of Realtors
19
Growing Debt and Equity
Source Federal Reserve Board, Z.1 Flow of Funds
20
Total Credit Outstanding in the United States as
of 2005Q4 ( billion percent of total)
Source Federal Reserve Board, Z.1 Flow of Funds
21
Share of Outstanding Loans by Loan Type,
1988-Present
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
22
Yield Spread30-Year Fixed Mortgages and
10-Year Treasuries
Basis Points
Source Federal Reserve Board
23
2002-6 Purchase Index Four Week Moving Average,
S.A.
Source Mortgage Bankers Association
24
2002-06 Refinance Index Four Week Moving
Average, S.A.
Source Mortgage Bankers Association
25
Average Price of Mortgages
Source UBS Mortgage Strategist
26
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market
Source MBA 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey
27
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market

• Source MBA 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

28
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market

• Source MBA 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

29
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market

• Source MBA 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

30
U.S. Real Estate Finance Market

• Source MBA 2005 Mortgage Originations Survey

31
U.S. Real Estate Finance MarketARM Market Share
Source MBA Weekly Application Survey
32
RMBS Issuance Volumes
Source Calculations based on data from Inside
MBS ABS
33
Non-agency MBS Issuance
34
Residential Delinquency Rate(Percent, Seasonally
Adjusted)
2005 Q4 4.70
1980-89 5.29
1972-79 4.35
1990-99 4.38
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
35
Total Delinquencies1979-Present
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
36
Seriously Delinquent Rate
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
37
Foreclosure Inventory Rate
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
38
Katrina Damage Study
Source Brinkmann and Ragas, February 2006
39
Delinquency statistics with and without the
impact of Hurricane Katrina
Source MBA National Delinquency Survey
40
Annual mortgage production
Billions of Dollars
forecast
Source Mortgage Bankers Association and
Department of Housing and Urban Development
41
Trends in Industry Employment
Thousands
Index 1990 100
Average monthly purchase application index
Source Mortgage Bankers Association and the
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42
Contact Information/Resources
Mike Fratantoni mfratantoni_at_mortgagebankers.org 1
919 Pennsylvania Ave - Washington, DC
20006 202-557-2818

• MBA Homepage www.mortgagebankers.org
• Forecasts http//www.mortgagebankers.org/marketda
  ta/forecasts/index.html
• Research data http//www.mortgagebankers.org/mark
  etdata/
• RIHA http//www.housingamerica.org/sitemap.html

• White Paper Series http//www.mortgagebankers.org
  /news/2005/MBA_Monograph_No1.pdf
• MBA Newslink http//www.mortgagebankers.org/MBANe
  wsLink/
• Home Loan Learning Center http//www.homeloanlear
  ningcenter.com