A new Telecom World unfolding The IPv6 factor Yves Poppe Director IP Strategy First Thailand IPv6 Su

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A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6
factorYves PoppeDirector IP StrategyFirst
Thailand IPv6 SummitMay 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok
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Agenda

• Why the acceleration?
• Some perceived drivers
• VSNL - Teleglobe and IPv6

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A View from the Top
With the internet and the proliferation of
semiconductors, youll end up with trillions of
things connected not just individuals but cars,
roads, homes, appliances, health-care data, and
pacemakers. All of these things are available
today that werent available in the past. In a
way, everybody needs a challenge or the threat to
get them going. The threat is that all these
competitors are coming on-line that have global
capabilities. Theyre all enabled by these
technologies  Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman
IBM, interviewed by Business Week - April 3th
2006 North-American issue, pp 52-53
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Why the Acceleration?

• A telecom Industry desperate for stability and
  renewed revenue growth
• Coming out of a major recession relentless
  technological change changing regulatory
  environments consolidation globalization.
• Consensus the next multibillion revenue
  opportunities imply IP based network
  convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always
  on, always p2p reachable, mobile and endowed with
  end to end security.
• Intense pressure on existing carrier business
  models with the advent of VoIP and new broadband
  wireless technologies
• Visions of ubiquitous communications between
  billions of devices ranging from home networks to
  global sensor and RFID networks.

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Convergence and disintermediation

• Multiplicity of convergences
• Network IP convergence
• Access Fixed and wireless convergence
• End device multimedia convergence
• Service provision convergence (triple, quad
  play)
• Disintermediation
• Applications, from voice to MP3 download to home
  security to TV distribution, independent of
  telecomm infrastructure provider
• Results in current debate on network neutrality

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Blurring distribution models

• The old order discrete and distinct
• Telecom voice, fixed and mobile, data, internet
• Broadcasters radio, TV
• Music industry
• Movie industry
• Print and publishing
• Advertising
• Gaming, gambling
• Home entertainment
• Production control, goods tracking
• Services banking, travel, auctions, sales of
  goods

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Some pitfalls of IP convergence

• The internet currently suffers from
• Uneven distribution looming shortage of IP
  addresses
• Inadequacy for mobile networking
• Unability for plug an play reconfiguration
• Elusive quality QoS not on par with TDM ATM
• Major network and user security issues
• Bad guy tricks phishing, pharming, bots,
  typosquatting
• Internet fraud complaints in the US from 48,252
  in 2002 to 207,449 in 2004()
• After Spam Spim (Instant messaging Spam) and
  Spit (Internet Telephony spam)
• () Internet Crime Complaint Center, as reported
  by BW May 30 2005 issue

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IP convergence the IPv6 factor

• Solves address shortage
• Restores p2p
• Mobility
• Better spectrum utilization
• Better battery life!
• Security
• Ipsec mandatory
• Multicast
• Better QoS (flow labels)

• Neighbour discovery
• Ad-Hoc networking
• Home networks
• Plug and play
• Auto configuration
• Permanent addresses
• Identity (CLID)
• Traceability (RFID)
• Sensors and monitoring

ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the
always-on
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IPv6 prerequisite for IP convergence

• To make a commercial reality of the IP
  convergence vision is impossible without moving
  to a new IP version
• The current one (IPv4) deployed on 01 /01/1983 is
  totally inadequate to meet current network
  needs.
• IPv6 is the only way out of current IP address
  shortage for major developing economies such as
  China and India.
• Essential for mobility, improved security and QoS
• Essential for plug and play home networking,
  mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs) and networks in
  motion (NEMOs)
• Critical component for session and event based
  billing in the 3G and B3G (Beyond 3G) world based
  on IMS and SIP.
• One of the building stones toward ITU-T defined
  NGN

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Some New Telecom World drivers

• Application domains
• Mobile IP
• Voice, radio, TV over IP
• Grid
• Massive multiplayer games
• RFID, control and sensor networks
• Microsoft
• Critical mass of
• digital communicating end-user devices
• high speed always on access
• National policies
• Research and Education networks
• National Defense
• National/regional policies and economic weight

Disruptive on most existing carrier business
models
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17 billion Networkable Devices!

• Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor
  and RFID networks the world could have a trillion
  communicating devices in a decade!

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Mobile communications What a market!

• As reported by 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org 2
  billion devices was reached sometime mid 2005!

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IPv6 prerequisite for IP convergence

• After the European bidding excesses and initial
  equipment delays 3G finally take off
• Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 35 million by mid
  2005 50 million units were forecasted by end
  2005 !
• Saturation in mobile voice stimulates interest
  in  rich media  high speed applications,
  seamless wireless mobility, location based
  services information. The MNO dilemma is the risk
  of becoming a bit pipe implied by the move to
  data.
• IMS (Internet Multimedia subsystem) is key to the
  billing of these new services services and IPv6
  essential for a scaleable IMS approach.

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Mobile Japan shows the way
Graph by CIAJ (Communication Information
Association of Japan)
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IPv6 prerequisite for IP convergence

• Disruptive effect of the Skype phenomenon
  150 million
  downloads, 8 billion plus minutes, 1.5
  million users on-line after two years.
• In North-America 400 providers
• Japans Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider
• Market will really explode with dual
  wi-fi/cellphone end-devices
• What role for Google, Microsoft, E-Bay, Apple
  iPhone?
• Enterprise VoIP
• Q1 05 PBX shipments 15 pure IP (rev. 36) ,
  57 hybrid, 28 TDM 2008 forecast 28
  IP, 67 hybrid, 8 TDM (Infonetics)
• IP centrex market starts to take off perfect
  match for IPv6

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Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV

• Other neologisms podcast(ing) and mobisodes.
• Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones.
• HD-Radio CD quality sound digital plus data
  alongside
  existing AM or FM channels.
• Barriers to entry to a 21 billion industry (in
  the US) go down XM, Sirius,
  Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting.
• Mobile TV Qualcomm MediaFlo vs. Modeo Consortium
• Mobile broadcast Potentially 270 million subs
  worldwide by 2009 (Visiongain)
• Forecasts of 200 million digital TVs worldwide
  by 2007 and 20 million IPTV subscribers by 2008
  (IPTV News)

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Grids

• Going mainstream
• IBM 11 datacenters around the world as
  computing grid
• Sun Microsystems grid on demand service
• Globus Consortium with IBM, Sun, Intel etc
  promote de facto standard
• numerous trials in the RE world

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Multiplayer games

• On-line gaming
• More than 5 million subscribers for most popular
  titles
• Average 20 hours/week on-line! Monthly fee 10 to
  15US
• Sales of virtual goods reached US200 million!
• Japan on-line gaming to reach 93.8 billion yen
  end 2005!
• Multiplayer cellphone gaming takes of
  exponentially
• On-line gambling
• Virtual poker tables, tournaments etc.
• Partygaming IPO US 9 billion valuation June
  2005

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RFIDs

• January 2005 The bandwagon started rolling
• Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory
  RFID support programs started.
• Generalized RFID implies terabytes of traffic
  daily.
• RFID for authentication and for traceability
  drugs, passports, banknotes, secure papers,
  concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags
  .
• 3.1 billion tags for palletscases in 2006 by
  2008 a US7.26B market with 15.3 billion tags for
  pallets cases and 6.8 for non retail item level
  (luggage etc) 48 Asia, 32 North America by
  2010 (source IDTechEx analysis).

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Sensor networks

• Self organizing sensor networks
• Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up
  projects
• Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc.
• Habitat, waterpollution levels, structural
  integrity, biomedical
• Intels vision
• Intel Deep Networking projects Locally
  networking billions of embedded nodes, driving
  computing deeper into the infrastructure that
  surrounds us.
• Intel Mote Motes are tiny, self-contained,
  battery-powered computers with radio links, which
  enable them to communicate and exchange data with
  one another, and to self-organize into ad hoc
  networks. Motes form the building blocks of
  wireless sensor networks

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Microsoft

• Motivation expand application domains and
  revenue sources
• Multiplayer games (Xbox on-line)
• Peer 2 peer ( end of NAT issues)
• Mobility (session continuity , mobile VPN, VoIP)
• End to end security temporary addresses and
  Ipsec
• Secure neighbor discovery
• Plug and play (instant network)
• Microsoft and IPv6 support
• Windows XP SP1, PocketPC, CE.NET have an IPv6
  stack
• Messenger, Windows Media Player, Direct Play,
  Threedegrees
• Windows Vista will have IPv6 as default protocol.
  Revised release date Q1 2007

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The battle for the communicating living-room

• Consumer Electronic Show Vegas January 2004 and
  January 2005
• First serious salvos in a titanic battle between
  the computer industry (Intel, Microsoft) and the
  electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba,
  Panasonic..)
• The essence of the battle is a kind of a home
   mediacenter  with all devices connected in a
  plug and play mode, preferably wireless.
• Consumer Electronic Show january 2006
• CEA press-release jan 8th
• Convergence was a big trend on the show floor in
  2006 as traditional product categories merged
  together to create unique, multi-functional
  digital devices.
• Huge stakes 135 billion consumer electronics
  market
  in the US alone for 2006 (Consumer
  Electronics Association)

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Prevalence of fast digital access

• 150.6 million subscribers end 2004
• up 26.5 million lines in 6 months (source Point
  Topic)
• 200 million were estimated end 2005
• DSL dominates except in North America
• Growth continues unabated
• FT end Q2 2005 6.4 subscribers 80 in 1
  year
• Telefonica end Q2 2005 4 subs 56 in 1 year
• UK high speed internet connections overtake
  dial-up (June 05)
• It took mobile phones 5.5 years to go from 10 to
  100 million subscribers worldwide Broadband
  achieved this in 3.5 years.
• It took mobile 5.5 years to grow from 10 to 100m
  worldwide Broadband achieved same growth in 3.5
  years

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BB Again, Japan shows the way
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Powerline Communication

• Utilities are showing a growing interest
• Associations in North-America, Europe and Asia
• Standardization process accelerates
• Products are coming on the market after
  
  around 100 trials in 40 countries
• Opens the way to networking for the myriad
  
  home appliances all the way to the
  individual
  lightbulbs

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Software Defined Radio

• SDR promises seamless interoperability across
  virtually
  any wireless standard
• Makes software control of operating frequencies
  and output power possible..
• Allows for multimode, multiband, multifunctional
  devices to be adapted, updated or enhanced by
  software
• Mandated by the US DoD under JTRS (Joint Tactical
  Radio System) program
• European Union formed a very active SDR group
  E2R (End 2 End Reconfigurability)
• Seen as essential for B3G (Beyond 3G)
• Standard disputes underway

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Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband.

• Disruptive even if a fraction
  
  of these market
  projections
  
  are achieved
• Constant re-evaluation of
  
  current business models
  both
  
  for access and service
  
  revenues is
  essential.

Business Week, April 26th 2004
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Wi-Fi and Wi-Max

• Wi-FI
• 120 million Wi-Fi chipsets shipped in 2005
• 100,000 public hotspots reached, 37K in the USA
  
  (Jiwire study, reported in
  Computerworld January 23, 2006)
• Wi-Max
• Potentially disruptive rival for fixed BB and
  3G?
• Intel Wi-Max ready chipset started shipping
• We want to enable the next billion broadband
  users
  (Ron Peck, Intel director marketing
  WiMax, quoted in Cnet apr 18th)
• 250 per access down to 50 by 2008 price
  level needed for generalized inclusion in
  laptops, cellphones etc.
• Deployments announced and starting
• Clearwire, Speakeasy, ATT, Qwest, Koreas Wibro
  
• Jan 2006 first WiMax Forum certified products

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RE networking

• RE networks broke the IPv6 chicken and egg
  dilemma
• All major RE networks are dual stack
• Next frontier ultra high bandwidth
  communication
  with projects such as GLIF

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National Defense

• US DoD decision to mandate IPv6 support was major
  catalyst in the US
• Resulted in Moonv6 test network
• Australian, Canadian, German,Japanese, UK and
  other defense ministries plan for IPv6
• NATO Interoperable Networks for Secure
  Communication (INSC) project has IPv6
  focus
• Defense mobile networking needs adhoc networks
  (MANET), networks in motion (NEMO) and end
  system mobility are just not achievable without
  IPv6

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IPv6 deployment The China factor

• With the support from the Chinese government,
  Chinas five major Carriers started to build the
  CNGI China Next Generation Internet
• Objective stated in 2004 " It will become one of
  the largest IPv6 networks in the world by the
  year of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 RD in China
  and providing tremendous business opportunities
  for industry global wide. "
• CERnet2, Chinas new RE network is IPv6 only and
  connect 20 cities at speeds of 2.5 and 10 gigabit
  per second. Became operational in Dec-04.
• Chinese officials restated that they want the
  Chinese internet to be completely IPv6 in time
  for the 2008 Olympics
• China 2005 IPv6 Summit Theme was IPv6
  CNGI---Innovation in Action, Connecting
  EverythingChina 2006 IPv6 Summit Theme is
  IPv6 The New Internet-The Future is Here
• 2008 will be showcase for the IP converged
  Olympics with full deployment completed in time
  for the Shanghai 2010 Worldfair

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Chinas Next Gen Internet

• CNGI fund of 1.4 billion Yuan (US169 million)
  provided by the NDRC (National Development Reform
  Commission) to support six next generation
  networks

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Koreas u-IT839

• U-IT839
• Announced feb 8th 2006
• Successor to IT839
• Emphasis on ubiquity and on convergence
• Mobile communications and telematics
• RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network)
• T-DMB(Digital Multimedia broadcasting) and DTV
• BCN (Broadband Converged Network) includes IPv6
• Some of the 2006 objectives
• Commercialization of HSDPA and Wibro
• Nation wide DMB and DTV services
• BB internet and WLAN controlled household robot
• Motivation grow IT from 13.3 of GDP in 2006 to
  21.8 in 2010

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Malaysias MyICMS 886 blueprint

• Launched December 19, 2005
• 8 Services
• Broadband, 3G, Mobile TV, digital multimedia
  
  broadcasting, digital home, RFID, VoIP, universal
  service provisioning
• 8 Infrastructures
• Three hard Multi service convergence network, 3G
  telegram network, satellite
• 5 soft IPv6, Information and network security,
  PC and internet adoption, computer development
  and product design and manufacturing
• 6 Growth areas
• Content development, ICT education, set talk
  boxes, digital radio receivers, VoIP phones and
  overseas investment consultancy
• Motivation grow CM from 9.7 of GDP

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Indias 10 point agenda

• Declared by the Honourable Minister Maran
• Convergence of technologies
• E-Governance
• Broadband connectivity
• Next Mobile Wireless
• National Internet exchange Indian Domain Name
• IPv6
• Security digital signature
• Media Lab Asia seamless communication to rural
  areas
• Language computing given Indias multilingual
  nature
• Outsourcing skilled manpower and RD thrust
• Will help grow IT share from current 4.8 of GDP

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A high stakes game Internet Governance!

• The internet juggernaut of the last decade took
  governments, regulators and carriers by surprise
• The looming IP convergence and an era of
  ubiquitous communications raises growing concerns
  about national interests, security, privacy and
  control
• IPv6 is a once in a generation opportunity to
  influence governance and control of
  telecommunications
• For the first time since IPv4 was introduced in
  jan1983, the internet is moving to a new
  protocol version and address scheme
• At stake a more regulated structured growth
  versus a liberal highly creative, competitive
  more chaotic growth.
• July 14th 2005 impasse between the U.N. and the
  USA.
  The U.N. panel presents 4 options including
  status-quo.
• November 2005 WSIS conference in Tunis
  compromise reached

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VSNL IPv6
Home Carrieror ISP
Foreign Carrieror ISP
Global Carrieror ISP
IP Convergence requires seamless connectivity
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Wholesale Data Global Footprint
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Wholesale Data IP Backbone
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Sambhalpur
Tirupathy
Vishakapatnam
Warangal
Medak
Vijaywadai
Samathanagar
Rajamundry
VSNL India 114 POPs IPv6 ready
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Some concluding thoughts

• What will the new telecom world we are creating
  bring?
• Homes on-line triple or quad play home gateways
  for work, entertainment, security and monitoring.
• Goods on-line tagging of practically everything
  
• Revenues on-line whole industries attracted by
  the vortex
• Nations on-line prerequisite to compete and
  generate wealth in a
  increasingly global economy.
• Humans on-line we will be networks in motion
  moving around carrying some terabytes of
  information and communicating with the rest of
  the world at gigabit speeds
• Our brains on-line?
• IPv6 will be a small but essential cog in this
  big wheel.

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Thank You!
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