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Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020: Implications for Tourism Management


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Title: Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020: Implications for Tourism Management

Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020Implications
for Tourism Management
  • Paolo Grigolli
  • Bucharest, 5 JUNE 2012

Issues supporting Sustainable Tourism
  • What form will tourism take in the future?
  • What will be the implications for tourism

  • identify the major economic, political, social,
    environmental, and technological forces driving
    global change to 2020
  • explore the implications for managers in the
    private and public sectors to develop tourism in
    a sustainable way

World Tourism Organisation Tourism Forecasts to
  • International tourism will continue to boom in
    the 21st century
  • increasing to almost 1.6 billion in 2020
  • this is 2.5 times the volume recorded in the late
  • Annual average growth rate in international
    tourist arrivals is 4.1 per cent a year
  • well above the maximum probable expansion of
    around 3 per cent per year in the worlds wealth

Emerging Destinations and Origins
  • Principal new international destinations include
  • China, Vietnam and Mekong River countries
  • the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and
    Latin America
  • Emerging Origin markets include
  • the new economic powerhouses of Asia (China,
    Korea, Taiwan, India and Malaysia)
  • large population countries - Indonesia, Brazil,
    Argentina, Mexico, and, to some extent, the
    Eastern European countries
  • Domestic tourism is playing a predominant role.
  • for the OECD area, domestic tourism consumption
    accounts for about 75 of tourism consumption
    within the zone

OECD Countries
  • In 2009, OECD countries still accounted for 57
    of international tourist arrivals and for 67 of
    the corresponding travel receipts. However, OECD
    countries are losing market share
  • During the last 20 years, the growth rate of
    tourism arrivals in OECD countries has averaged
    2.8 per year, well ahead of the GDP growth rate
    of 2.4 for the zone
  • In the OECD area, the employment growth rate in
    the tourism industry exceeded 2 per year between
    2000 and 2009, more than a percentage point ahead
    of the total employment growth rate

Global Trends Affecting Tourism
  • We identify 5 key global trends
  • Globalization and long term economic trends
  • Political trends
  • Social trends
  • Environment, Resources and Energy Trends
  • Changes in Technology

Influence of Megatrends on Tourism
Globalization and Long term Economic Trends
  • six factors that drive globalization, economic
    dynamism and growth
  • political pressures for higher living standards
  • improved macroeconomic policies
  • deregulation/liberalisation of international
  • rising trade and investment
  • diffusion of information technology
  • increasingly dynamic private sectors

Trends and opportunities
  • Leisure and vacation travel dominates
  • Leisure is by far the most important purpose of
    visit (gt50 of arrivals).
  • Tendency towards shorter stays
  • The shrinking duration of tourist trips is
    closely linked to changing lifestyles and
    developments in the means of transport.
  • Online reservations continue to rise
  • In many countries more than 25 of individuals
    have booked travel or accommodation on the
  • SMEs play an important role
  • In the hotel, restaurant and travel agencies
    sectors, SMEs are responsible for at least 70 of
    employment in nearly all OECD countries.

Political Trends
  • the gap between the haves and have-nots will
    widen unless the have-not countries pursue
    policies that support application of new
  • good governance
  • universal education
  • market reforms

Some Political Influences
  • Destinations that are perceived to be less safe
    and secure will be avoided by tourists
  • Enclave tourism strategies need to be re-examined
    (risk management)
  • Globalisation Vs Localisation
  • Modernity Vs Identity

Environment, Resources, Energy Trends
  • climate change
  • higher temperatures
  • ozone depletion
  • sea level rise
  • loss of snow cover and permafrost
  • glacial melt in the polar regions
  • extreme weather events, precipitation and
    hydrological changes
  • natural resource depletion (energy, water)
  • land-use changes (deforestation and
    desertification, salinity)
  • changes in biodiversity (species loss)

Some Environmental Influences on Tourism
  • Tourism both contributes to and is affected by
    climate change
  • Natural environments and climate will influence
    which destinations will be preferred by tourists
  • Climate change impacts on the profitability of
    the industry through increasing temperatures,
    energy and water use and increasing needs for
  • Government policies will affect operator costs
  • Long haul destinations are particularly affected
  • Diminishing supplies of energy will impact on
    fuel costs, affecting transport costs and tourism

Social Trends
  • Population and Ageing
  • Urbanisation
  • Changing Social Structures
  • Health
  • Aspirations and Expectations
  • Values and Lifestyles
  • Changing Work Patterns
  • Gender
  • Education

Social Influences on Tourism
  • Money rich-time poor. Leisure time has become an
    increasingly scarce commodity
  • Individualism. Tourist behavior is becoming
    driven by a desire for customisation (hedonism)
  • Self improvement. As more material needs are
    satisfied tourists seek newer, richer, deeper,
    authentic experiences
  • Seeking value for money. The internet has lead to
    more knowledgeable consumers who seek best value
    for money and time

Social Influences on Tourism
  • Experimental. New tourists are extremely
    experimental, willing to try new products, foods
    and attractions, but too impatient to give a
    second chance to products or service that fail to
    satisfy initially
  • Safety conscious. Safety issues are becoming
    increasingly important
  • Social and Environmental Concern. Tourists are
    becoming more aware of political, social and
    environmental issues for different destinations
    (tipping points)
  • Good service. The tourist marketing battle is
    shifting from competitive pricing to service

Technological Change
  • Two areas of change IT and Transport
  • Technology is the foremost management tool for
    successful performance and competitive advantage
    in the new business operating environment

Technological Influences
  • Database management systems allow response to
    individual preferences to stimulate tourism
  • New technologies give tourists more control over
    how they spend their time and money
  • New technology is improving the speed and comfort
    and reducing the real cost of travel
  • All aspects of tourism and hospitality
    organizations in all sectors are being
    dramatically changed by new technology
  • The tourism industry generally has not taken an
    active role in developing or adapting new
  • Despite the proliferation of new technology, the
    industry is often reluctant to adopt new methods
    and tools

  • Taken together, these drivers and trends set the
    context in which the global tourism industry may
    be expected to develop to 2020
  • No single driver or trend will dominate the
    global future
  • Each driver will have varying impacts in
    different regions and countries
  • In some cases, these trends work at

  • Integrate tourism into wider development strategy
  • Raise participation of local citizens and private
    decision makers in tourism development
  • Better define and promote competitive tourism
  • Improve internal mobility and external
  • Better define tourist targets new products for
    specific niches
  • Better branding of Rumania and its region
  • Foster education and training for the tourism
  • Foster the introduction and use of ICT in the
  • Develop an evaluation framework of tourism and
    local development policy

Trends Influencing Tourism to 2020Implications
for Tourism Management
  • Multumesc!
  • Paolo Grigolli