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Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure

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Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure Ted Devens, PE NC Department of Transportation Contributors: Brian Yamamoto PE, Dave Henderson PE – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure


1
Climate Change Effects on Transportation
Infrastructure
  • Ted Devens, PE
  • NC Department of Transportation
  • Contributors Brian Yamamoto PE, Dave Henderson
    PE

2
Outline
  • The Current Condition
  • Infrastructure Challenges Ahead
  • Changing Ecosystems
  • Management Models
  • NCDOT Considerations

3
The Current Condition
4
NCDOT monitors Climate Change initiatives at all
levels
5
World Stage United Nations
  • 1988 IPCC Created
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • 1990 First IPCC Report
  • 1992 Earth Summit at Rio de Janiero
  • 1995 2nd IPCC Report
  • Kyoto Protocol (183 nations signed)
  • Reduce GHG emissions
  • 2001 3rd IPCC Report
  • 2006 An Inconvenient Truth Nobel Prize
  • 2007 4th IPCC Report

6
National Stage
  • National Research Council Responses to
    Changes in Sea Level Engineering
    Considerations
  • 2001 TRB Global Climate Change and
    Transportation
  • USDOT Impacts of Climate Change on Transp.
  • 2005 USDOT 1st Workshop on Impacts of
    Climate Change
  • 2006 USDOT 2nd Workshop on Impacts of
    Climate Change
  • 2007 ICF International Potential Impacts of
    SLR on Trans.
  • AASHTO Primer on Transportation and Climate
    Change
  • 2008 TRB Potential Impacts of Climate Change
    on US Transp.
  • USDOT Impacts of Climate Change Gulf Coast
    Study
  • 2008 FHWA Information on Climate Change and
    Transp.
  • EPA, USGS, NOAA, USDOT Coastal Sensitivity
    to Sea Level Rise A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic
    Region
  • 2009 TRB Planning for CC Impacts _at_ US Ports
  • 2009 TRB Factors Affecting Airport and the
    Impact of CC
  • 2009 USACE Incorporating Sea-Level Change
    Considerations in Civil Works Programs

7
North Carolina Stage
  • 2005
  • Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change
  • 2007
  • Monitor NOAA and Sea Grant research (local)
  • 2009
  • DEM - SLR Risk Management Study
  • 2009
  • DCM - SLR Planning (Rulemaking) Initiative

8
Sea Level Rise (SLR)
9
Oregon Inlet, NC
Empirical Rate 11 inches / Century
10
Beaufort, NC
Empirical Rate 10 inches / Century
11
Wilmington, NC
Empirical Rate 8.2 inches / Century
12
NRC SLR Prediction (1987)
6 ft
3.3 ft
1.6 ft
13
IPCC SLR Prediction (2001)
2.9 ft
2.3 ft
1.5 ft
0.7 ft
14
IPCC SLR Prediction (2007)
15
Climate Change Summary
  • Climatologically, the world is NOT STATIC.
  • Empirical Data Suggests that
  • Sea Level IS rising.
  • Rainfall intensity IS increasing.

16
Climate Change Summary
  • The BIG question for Engineers
  • When and at what amplitude will the geological
    peak occur?
  • Long-standing engineering assumptions may need to
    change.

17
Challenges to Transportation Infrastructure
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20
Roadway Elevation and Width
  • Drainage
  • Geotechnical Stability
  • Safety Functionality
  • - Shoulders, Guardrails, Median
  • Erosion Resistance
  • - Future Armoring?

21
Bathymetry
22
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23
Bathymetric ApproachOK
Existing
24
Bathymetric Approach Not OK
SLR
Existing
25
NC 12 on the Outer Banks

26
NC Hurricane Landfalls Since 1950
27
Hurricane Frequency Intensity
28
Hurricane Frequency Intensity
29
Warmer Waters?
30
Hurricane Frequency Intensity
31
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
32
Signs
33
Increasing Wind Larger Waves
  • Wind Fetch Distance gt Wave Height

34
Storm Surge Katrina
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36
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37
Navigable Clearance
38
Navigable Clearance
39
Navigable Clearance
40
Structures
  • Storm Surge Wave Energy
  • Scour
  • Wind Loads
  • Deck Height
  • Navigable Clearance
  • Storm Surge susceptibility
  • Temperature effect on expansion joints

41
Hydraulics
  • Drainage Double-Whammy to Highways
  • Rising Sea Level?
  • Additional Rainfall Intensity?

42
Rainfall Intensity
43
Rainfall Intensity
?
?
44
Existing Drainage Condition
45
Potential Drainage Concern after Sea Level Rise
46
Potential Drainage Concern after SLR ?
Rainfall Intensity
Also Fill and Slope Stability Concerns
47
Open Channels
48
Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
Normal Water Elevation
49
Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
Available Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation
50
Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
RAISED Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level
Rise
51
Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
REDUCED Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level Rise
52
Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
ADDITIONAL Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level Rise
53
Floodplains Floodways
  • New FEMA Floodplains to consider?

54
Geotechnical
  • Soil Saturation Capillary Rise
  • Load Transfer Fill-slope Stability

55
Transportation Issues
  • Underground Utilities
  • Subject to Inundation
  • Pavement Design Maintenance
  • High groundwater tables
  • Increased flooding
  • Temperature Extremes

56
Changing Ecosystems
57
Shoreline Transition
2050
2025
2100
2075
2000
58
Wetland Transition
2100
2000
TIDAL MARSH
COASTAL MARSH
TIDAL MARSH
59
Ecological Planning
  • Changing Wetland Locations
  • Todays tidal marsh drowned in 30 years
  • Salt marsh today Tidal Marsh
  • Swamp forest or farm fields Salt Marsh
  • Wetland Mitigation
  • Creation, Restoration, Preservation
  • Restore wetlands that will be inundated?
  • What does In Perpetuity mean?

60
Ecological Planning
  • Changing Habitats
  • Endangered Species Protection Mitigation
  • Will habitat exist in the future?
  • What is Best for Environmental Stewardship?
  • Plan for Existing Conditions. or Future?

61
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62
Red Wolf Mitigation Plan?
63
Ecological Issues
  • Significant engagement is necessary to address
    environmental laws that
  • assume STATIC conditions.
  • EPA
  • NOAA Fisheries
  • USFWS Regulatory
  • USACE Regulatory
  • Appropriate State Agencies

64
Coastal Communities
65
Examples of Existing Regulatory Models that
consider Climate Change
66
Policy Rulemaking by Others
  • United Kingdom
  • US Army Corps of Engineers (July 2009)
  • Council on Environmental Quality
  • - may require NEPA to consider Climate Change
  • Climate Change Adaptation Plans
  • - by other states or localities

67
US Army Corps of Engineers
July 2009 - USACE Circular 1165-2-211 Requires
consideration of Sea Level Rise when
planning/designing Civil Works programs. Planni
ng studies and engineering designs should
consider alternatives that are developed and
assessed for the entire range of possible future
rates of sea-level change. Low rate
Empirical data trend Intermediate
rate Modified NRC Curve I High rate Modified
NRC Curve III
68
4.5 ft
1.6 ft
69
US Army Corps of Engineers
For each sea-level scenario, determine Sensitiv
ity of plans designs Degree of Risk Human
health and safety Economic costs and
benefits Environmental Impacts Strategies to
minimize adverse consequences Make a decision
70
What if the Corps of Engineers was planning a
highway? Hypothetical Application of the Corps
Model
71
Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
72
Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
73
Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at significant SLR
Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
74
NCDOT Considerations
75
Where is the State of NC?
  • Education Continued Research
  • Public
  • Decision-Makers
  • Platform for Decision-Making
  • Public Policy
  • Land Use Planning
  • Engineering Design Criteria
  • Ecosystem Management
  • Spinoff Research - Adaptation
  • Risk Management Cost Effectiveness

NC is transitioning
76
Planning Considerations
Potentially more issues to consider Potential
changes in land use City County plans CAMA
land use plans Ecologic foresight Future
changes in Design Criteria may generate a wider
roadway footprint right-of-way
77
Current NCDOT Thoughts
  • SLR prediction models still vary substantially
  • Money is tight and must be spent wisely
  • Closely Monitor Research at all levels
  • Closely monitor NC initiatives provide input
  • DEM SLR Risk Management Study
  • DCM Rules Development
  • Legislative committees

78
Current NCDOT Thoughts
  • Implement new NEPA planning considerations as CEQ
    requirements change
  • Consider programmatic pre-authorizations
  • Ex Roadway armoring, Tidal flapgates
  • For now
  • Address Climate Change issues on a
    project-by-project basis.
  • Later On
  • Consider risk management models as appropriate.
    Perhaps similar to USACE model perhaps not.

79
Similar Issues
  • NCDOT
  • Railroads
  • Aviation
  • Ferry Division
  • Public Transportation
  • NC Port Authority

80
NCDOT is willing to partner as we think ahead
about our changing world
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84
Questions Were Asking Ourselves
  • What is the actual risk presented by each Climate
    Change aspect?
  • What is the Cost vs. Benefit to address?
  • Are systemic risk management models appropriate?
  • How can we productively partner with other
    entities to think ahead?
  • Will other entities share cost and/or risk?

85
Risk Assessments
  • USDOT (w/ Federal Highway Administration)
  • EPA / NOAA / USGS
  • Transportation Review Board (TRB)
  • AASHTO
  • NC DEM - SLR Risk Management Study

86
Specific Climate Change Concerns
  • Wind Water
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Increasing Rainfall Intensity
  • Hurricanes Storms
  • Storm Surge
  • Wave Energy
  • Wind
  • Bathymetry
  • Temperature Extremes
  • Fog

87
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89
Rising Normal Water Level
  • Tidal ebb and flood
  • Higher tailwater elevations
  • Raise pipe outlets?
  • Design for outlet control? (larger pipe size)
  • Retrofits to existing highway ditches?
  • Flap gates
  • Wider ditches / canals

90
Increasing Wind Loads?
  • Increased lateral loads
  • Increased lift in negative pressure zones
  • Wind Erosion and Accretion
  • Vehicular safety on bridges

91
Hypothetical Example of Environmental Stewardship
  • Scientists are very concerned about wetlands
    ability to migrate with SLR
  • Will substrate development keep up with SLR?
  • Vertical barriers threaten migration
  • Existing roadways are potential barriers
  • Possible consideration w/ new roads retrofits
  • Build Permeable Roads w/ Equalizer Pipes
  • Allows transfer of water, nutrients, seeds
  • Allows passage of aquatic species reptiles

92
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