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Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge

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Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge ASES Forum Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm Ron Swenson Swenson s Law Roscoe Bartlett ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge


1
Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge
  • ASES Forum
  • Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy
  • Thursday 1030am to 1200pm
  • Ron Swenson

2
Swensons Law
3
Roscoe Bartlett
  • It might seem possible to fill the gap in the
    short term. However, in the long term, this will
    be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the
    exhaustion of other finite resources. That will
    make the inevitable transition to renewable
    sources more difficult and more painful.

4
Energy Scoreboard
  • Primary challenges are
  • EROEI
  • Global Warming
  • Scalability
  • Timing

5
Why leave out Economics?
  • Economics is an instrument of policy.
  • Its the last step in the process
  • First figure out what works
  • Then create incentives.

6
EROEI
  • Energy Returned On Energy Invested
  • ERoEI(field) gtgt ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

7
EROEI for PV
  • EPBT 5 years
  • Life 50 years
  • Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROEI  10?30 electric
8
EROEI for Thin Film PV
  • EPBT 6 months
  • Life 20 years

EROEI  40?120 electric
9
EROEI for Wind
  • EPBT 3 months
  • Life 20 years

EROEI  80?240 electric
10
Global Warming
  • Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short!

11
Atmospheric CO2
12
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse
  • Feb-Mar 2002
  • In about 35 days
  • Larger than Rhode Island
  • Totally baffled scientists
  • 1 down, 4 to go

13
EROEI for Tar Sands
  • Plus
  • Ravaged land
  • Water contamination
  • Extraction uses natural gas
  • Low EROEI ? Greenhouse gases

EROEI  3?
14
EROEI for Nuclear
  • Plus
  • Terrorism
  • Waste guarded for 10,000 years
  • Depletion ? low grade ores ? Greenhouse gases

How do we value a 1,000 year wasteland?
EROEI  4? 12 electric
15
EROEI for Hydrogen
  • Am I missing something?!

EROEI  -½
16
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17
Scalability
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts) 178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
18
Renewable Energy
  • Solar
  • 1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface
  • 600 TW practical

Wind 2-4 TW extractable
Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not
used for food
Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW
economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity
12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable
19
There is no Silver Bullet.
  • Why Silver in the first place?
  • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that
    silver, like life, was precious and should not be
    wasted.
  • Specific gravity of Pb 11.35
  • Specific gravity of Ag 10.50

Ag
Ag
20
There is no Ag Bullet.
  • Now I think I follow what you mean.
  • Lets find out why.

21
Corn Ethanol
22
Corn Ethanol
  • Energy content 75 from fossil fuels
  • Coal (electricity) gt 40
  • Natural gas (to heat mash) gt 30
  • Not to mention fertilizer, tractor truck fuel
  • Photosynthesis 5- 26
  • Depletes soil and water supplies
  • Competes with food resources
  • Not carbon-neutral

23
Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil)
  • Meets 40 of demand
  • Brazil per capita use is 10 of US ?
  • 40 x 10 4
  • Many sugar cane workers are slaves
  • Produces aldehydes in exhaust
  • Soil and water conditions very different

24
Cellulosic Ethanol
PhotosynthesisSunlight 0.25
PhotosynthesisPV (or STE) 0.5 - 2
USA PV on all paved land 0.1 m km2 11 Gb/yr (150)
USA Cellulose from all forests 3 m km2 6 Gb/yr (80)
USA Cellulose from all ag land 1.5 m km2 3 Gb/yr (40)
25
Cellulosic Ethanol
Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km2
Global forests 40 m km2
  • All we need to do is change the make-up of 25
    of present wooded land space.

26
Forest Facts
  • Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40
    million km2 or 30 of the total land area
  • Global deforestation 13 million hectares
  • Net loss of forests 7.3 million hectares
  • 36 of the forest area has had little or no human
    impact
  • Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares
    and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year

27
Without Cellulosic Ethanol
28
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
29
Ethanol Scorecard
EROEI D
Global Warming D
Scalability D
Timing C
30
But renewables make electricity, not liquid
fuels!?
  • How do we handle transportation after peak oil?

31
(No Transcript)
32
Timing
  • Application Technology PRT
  • Note distinction between application technology
    and generation technology.
  • In relationship to peak oil and climate change,
    uses of energy are as critical as sources of
    energy.

33
Freeway at Capacity
34
Vehicles Removed
35
PRT Passengers
36
PRT System
37
Solar PRT
38
Solar PRT
  • 10 kw _at_ 100 mph
  • 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval ?
  • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch ?
  • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun
  • 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun ?
  • 720 kw / mile ?
  • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

39
Solar PRT Capacity
  • Skytran Two people every second
  • 7,200 passengers per hour
  • 72,000 passengers per day
  • Rail
  • About 8,000 passengers per hour
  • 60,000 passengers per day
  • Washington, DC 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile
  • Highway 1.2 average occupancy
  • 2400 persons per lane / hour

40
Solar PRT Scorecard
EROEI A
Global Warming A
Scalability B-
Timing D
41
PV The Growth Industry
Oil declines at 4/yr(?) PV increases at 50/yr
?
42
Wake Up!!!
43
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