FROM OUR AGENDA TO THE NATIONS AGENDA: Roles for K16 Leaders in Ensuring that NCLB is More Than a Ho

1
FROM OUR AGENDA TO THE NATIONS AGENDARoles
for K-16 Leaders in Ensuring that NCLB is More
Than a Hollow PromiseWashington State Gear Up
ConferenceThe Education Trust, 2003

• NC Title 1 Conference
• Education Trust, 2003

2
Three Goals

• Where are we now?
• What are the lessons from high-performing
  high-poverty and high-minority schools?
• How do we TALK about what remains to be done?

3
What Do We Know About Student Achievement?
4
12th Grade Achievement In Math and Science is Up
Somewhat
5
High School Achievement Math and Science
Source NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress.
6
In Reading, 12th Grade Achievement is Headed
Downward
7
HIGH SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT READING AND WRITING
8
After Earlier Progress in Narrowing Gaps, Gaps
in the 90s Largely Unchanged
9
Gaps Narrow, Then Fairly Flat NAEP Reading
Scores, 17 Year-Olds
Source US Department of Education, National
Center for Education Statistics. NAEP 1999 Trends
in Academic Progress (p. 107) Washington, DC US
Department of Education, August 2000
10
Gaps Narrow, Then Hold Steady or Widen NAEP
Math Scores, 17 Year-Olds
Source US Department of Education, National
Center for Education Statistics. NAEP 1999 Trends
in Academic Progress (p. 108) Washington, DC US
Department of Education, August 2000
11
Students Make More Growth Grade 4 to 8 than
Grade 8 to 12
12
Academic GrowthGrades 4-8, 8-12
13
Value Added in High School Declined During the
Nineties
14
Value Added Declining in High School Math
Age 13-17 Growth
Source NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress
15
Value Added Declining in High School Science
Age 13-17 Growth
Source NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress
16
Reading Students Entering Better Prepared, But
Leaving Worse
Source NAEP 1996 Trends in Academic Progress
17
Hormones?
18
Students in Other Countries Gain far More in High
School
19
TIMSS
20
Source NCES 1999-081R, Highlights From TIMSS
21
Source NCES 1999-081R, Highlights From TIMSS
22
Average Advanced Mathematics Performance of
Advanced Mathematics Students in All Countries
U.S. students with pre-calculus, calculus,
analytic geometry or AP calculus instruction,
representing about 14 of the U.S. cohort. Of
the higher-performing countries, all but four
include more of their age cohort in this category.
Source NCES, TIMSS, Pursuing Excellence A
Study of U.S. Twelfth-Grade Mathematics and
Science Achievement in International Context,
1999.
23
PISA
24
US 15 Year-Olds Rank Near Middle Of The Pack
Among 32 Participating Countries
25
One measure on which we rank high?Inequality!
26
Performance Of U.S.15 Year-Olds Highly Variable
Of 27 OECD countries
Source OECD, Knowledge and Skills for Life
First Results From PISA 2000, 2001.
27
KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS AT END OF HIGH SCHOOL
28
NAEP Mathematics Performance 2000
29
12th Graders Performing Below Basic in
Mathematics 2000
30
NAEP Reading Performance 1998
31
12th Graders Reading Performance 1998
32
African American and Latino 17 Year Olds Do Math
at Same Levels As White 13 Year Olds
Source NAEP 1999 Long Term Trends Summary Tables
(online)
33
African American and Latino 17 Year Olds Read at
Same Levels as White 13 Year Olds
Source Source NAEP 1999 Long Term Trends
Summary Tables (online)
34
Not Surprisingly, These Patterns Also Clear in
Graduation and College Entry Rates
35
Students Graduate From High School At Different
Rates
Source US Bureau of Census, Current Population
Reports, Educational Attainment in the United
States March 1998 (p. 20-513), Detailed Tables
No. 2
36
Highest Achieving Low-Income Students Attend
Postsecondary at Same Rate as Bottom Achieving
High Income Students
Source NELS 88, Second (1992) and Third Follow
up (1994) in, USDOE, NCES, NCES Condition of
Education 1997 p. 64
37
Even so, there is more access than success
38
College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher,
Whites
19
10
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census, October Current Population Surveys,
1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of
Education 2002, p.166 and 174.
39
College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher,
Blacks
21
7
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census, October Current Population Surveys,
1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of
Education 2002, p.166 and 174.
40
College Going vs. Completion of BA or Higher,
Hispanics
?? !!!
Source US Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census, October Current Population Surveys,
1972-2000, in US DOE, NCES, The Condition of
Education 2002, p.166 and 174.
41
ADD IT ALL UP...
42
Of Every 100 White Kindergartners
(24 Year-Olds)
Source US Bureau of Census, Current Population
Reports, Educational Attainment in the United
States March 2000, Detailed Tables No. 2
43
Of Every 100 African American Kindergartners
(24 Year-Olds)
Source US Bureau of Census, Current Population
Reports, Educational Attainment in the United
States March 2000, Detailed Tables No. 2
44
Of Every 100 Latino Kindergartners
(24 Year-Olds)
Source US Bureau of Census, Current Population
Reports, Educational Attainment in the United
States March 2000, Detailed Tables No. 2
45
Of Every 100 American Indian/Alaskan Native
Kindergartners
(24 Year Olds)
46
College Graduates by Age 24
Source Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public
Policy Analysis of Opportunity for Post
Secondary, 1997.
47
WHY?
48
What We Hear Adults Say

• Theyre poor
• Their parents dont care
• They come to schools without breakfast
• Not enough books
• Not enough parents . . .

49
But if theyre right, then why are poor and
minority children performing so high in...
50
Some schools...
51
Wrigley Elementary

• 78 Low-Income
• 3rd Highest Performing in State in Reading
• 6th Highest Performing in State in Writing

KENTUCKY
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Mount Royal Elementary/Middle, Baltimore, MD

• 99 African American
• 73 Low-Income
• Highest Performing in State on states 5th grade
  Math test.
• Top 10 of state in 5th grade reading.

MARYLAND
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Pimlico Elementary, Baltimore, MD

• 100 African American
• 94 Low-Income
• Top 1 in improvement on the states 5th grade
  Math test.

Maryland
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Hambrick Middle School,Aldine, TX

• 94 African American and Latino (state 56)
• 85 low-income (state 50)
• Has performed in the top fifth of all Texas
  middle schools in both reading and math in both
  7th and 8th grades over a 3-year period.

55
Prince Edward County High, Farmville VA
(715 students 55 African American and Latino)
Sources Virginia Department of Education Web
site, http//www.pen.k12.va.us/VDOE/Assessment/200
2SOLpassrates.html.
56
Norview High School, Norfolk, VA
(1,560 students 70 African American and Latino)
Sources Virginia Department of Education Web
site, http//www.pen.k12.va.us/VDOE/Assessment/200
2SOLpassrates.html.
57
Dispelling the Myth
58
Dispelling the Myth
59
Dispelling the Myth
60
Some districts...
61
Aldine, TX Raising Achievement for All While
Narrowing Gaps
Source Texas Education Agency-Academic
Excellence Indicator System Report 1994 through
2001.
62
Aldine, TX Raising Achievement for All While
Narrowing Gaps
Source Texas Education Agency-Academic
Excellence Indicator System Report 1994 through
2001.
63
And some entire states...
64
4th Grade Math African American Gains Between
1992 and 2000
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP) Summary Data Tables
65
4th Grade Math Latino Gains Between 1992 and 2000
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP) Summary Data Tables
66
Connecticut Gains in Grade 4 Reading Outpace the
Nation, 1994-98
Source USDOE, NCES, National Assessment of
Educational Progress (NAEP) Summary Data Tables
67
Differences among states so large that minority
and/or poor students in some states outperforming
white and/or non-poor students in others.
68
8th Grade Writing African Americans in Texas
Perform as Well or Better Than Whites in 7 States
Source NCES, National Assessment of Educational
Progress
69
Patterns Much the Same in Washington
70
NAEP READINGWashingon 4th Graders (1998)
71
WASL MATH7th and 8th Graders (2002)
72
WA A Look at the Education Pipeline
73
What We Hear Students SayWe CAN Learn, But

• some teachers dont know their subjects
• counselors underestimate our potential
• principals dismiss concerns
• curriculum and expectations are low

74
SO, WHAT DO WE DO?
75
Small and personal for both students and teachers
will help. Indeed, given the clarity of the
research, it is unthinkable NOT to act.
76
META-ANALYSIS OF RESEARCH ON SIZE

• AVERAGE ACHIEVEMENT IS HIGHER IN SMALL HIGH
  SCHOOLS
• MORE STUDENTS PASS COURSES AND GO ON TO COLLEGE
• EFFECTS ARE LARGEST FOR LOW-INCOME AND MINORITY
  STUDENTS
• Source Small Schools, Big Imaginations 1998

77
Recent 4-State StudySmall Schools Reduce
Power of Poverty by 30-50Source Rural
Community Education Trust, 2/2000
78
But real change also requires at least five
critical elements

• Get the goals right
• Get all students in a curriculum lined up with
  those goals
• Make certain that all students are genuinely
  STRETCHED
• Provide extra instruction for students who arrive
  behind
• TEACHER QUALITY MATTERS.

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Element 1 Goals
80
Education PaysAnnual Earnings of 25-34 yr-olds
by Attainment, 2001
Source US bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau
of the Census, Current Population Survey, March
2002
81
Its Not Just Degrees, But Also Skills That
Matter--for All Groups Prose
Source Andrew Sum, Literacy in the Labor
Force, NCES, September 1999
82
Students seem to get all this, but
83
How Expectations Differ Plans For Students After
High School
SourceMetropolitan Life, Survey of the American
Teacher 2000 Are We Preparing Students for the
21st Century?, September 2000.
84
To break through these old attitudes, cannot
equivocate.

• ALL students must graduate from high school ready
  for postsecondary education.

85
Element 2 All Students in Curriculum Lined Up
With Those Goals
86
Immediate college-going increasing
87
Most High School Grads Go On To Postsecondary
Within 2 Years
Source NELS 88, Second (1992) and Third (1994)
Follow up in, USDOE, NCES, Access to
Postsecondary Education for the 1992 High School
Graduates, 1998, Table 2.
88
College Freshmen Not Returning for Sophomore Year
Source Tom Mortensen, Postsecondary Opportunity,
No. 89, November 1999
89
Transcript Study single biggest predictor of
college success isQUALITY AND INTENSITY OF HIGH
SCHOOL CURRICULUM

• Cliff Adelman, Answers in the Tool Box, U.S.
  Department of Education.

90
But college prep curriculum has benefits far
beyond college.
91
Students of all sorts will learn more...
92
A Rigorous Math Curriculum Improves Scores For
All Students
Source National Assessment of Educational
Progress, 1992 Mathematics Trend Assessment,
National Center for Education Statistics. NAEP
1992 Trends in Academic Progress (p 113).
Washington, DC US Department of Education. 1994
93
Vocational Students Taking High-Level English
Courses Score Higher
Source Bottoms, Gene. Report of the SREB, High
Schools That Work 1998 Secondary Teacher Survey,
SREB, 1998, NAEP Scores.
94
Low Quartile Students Gain More From College Prep
Courses
Grade 8-grade 12 test score gains based on 8th
grade achievement.
Source USDOE, NCES, Vocational Education in the
United States Toward the Year 2000, in Issue
Brief Students Who Prepare for College and
Vocation
95
They will also fail less often...
96
Challenging Curriculum Results in Lower Failure
Rates, Even for Lowest Achievers
Ninth-grade English performance, by high/low
level course, and eighth-grade reading
achievement quartiles
Source SREB, Middle Grades to High School
Mending a Weak Link. Unpublished Draft, 2002.
97
Students of All Abilities Are Generally More
Likely to Fail Low-Level Mathematics
Courses9th-graders earning Ds or Fs by 8th grade
achievement course assignment
Source Sondra Cooney Gene Bottoms, Middle
Grades to High School Mending a Weak Link,
SREB, 2002
98
And theyll be better prepared for the workplace.
99
Take Manufacturing, for example
100
Requirements forTool and Die Makers

• Four or five years of apprenticeship and/or
  postsecondary training
• Algebra, geometry, trigonometry and statistics
• Average earnings 40,000 per year.

101
Requirements forSheet Metal Workers

• Four or five years of apprenticeship
• Algebra, geometry, trigonometry and technical
  reading

102
Requirements for Avionics Technicians

• postsecondary training
• Physics, chemistry, advanced mathematics,
  computers, electronics
• Average earnings 40,000 per year.

103
American Diploma Project Interviews with
Employers

• Mostly want same as what higher education wants!

104
How close are we?
105
Algebra 2 1982 vs. 1998
106
Chemistry 1982 vs. 1998
107
High-performing minority students often excluded
from higher-rigor courses
Source The Achievement Council and the Education
Trust West analysis of unpublished CA district
data, 2001.
108
Why not make college prep curriculum the default
curriculum for all students?

• The Experience in Houston, El Paso, San Jose

109
Element 3 Working on the Rigor Part
110
What Teenagers Say About School Rigor

• Fewer Than 3 in 10 Think Their School is Very
  Academically Rigorous

Source 1998 Annual Survey from Whos Who Among
American High School Students 2000 by The
Education Trust, Inc.
111
There remains a troubling gap between course
names and gradesand results on assessments.
112
Quality of Mathematical Content of 8th Grade
Lessons
Source TIMSS unpublished tabulations,
Videotape Classroom Study, UCLA, 1996, in
Pursuing Excellence A Study of US Eigth-Grade
Mathematics and Science Teaching, Learning,
Curriculum and Achievement in International
Context, 1997.
113
Algebra in 8th Grade Text Books of space
devoted to algebra in 8th grade mathematics
textbooks
Source NCES, Pursuing Excellence A Study of
U.S. Eighth-Grade Mathematics and Science
Teaching, Learning, Curriculum, and Achievement
in International Context, 1997.
114

• A full one-third of American Algebra 1 courses
  use textbooks with very little Algebra in them.
• Willam Schmidtt

115
Students can do no better than the assignments
they are given...
116
Grade 10 Writing Assignment
A frequent theme in literature is the conflict
between the individual and society. From
literature you have read, select a character who
struggled with society. In a well-developed
essay, identify the character and explain why
this characters conflict with society is
important.
117
Grade 10 Writing Assignment
Write a composition of at least 4 paragraphs on
Martin Luther Kings most important contribution
to this society. Illustrate your work with a
neat cover page. Neatness counts.
118
14 SC High Schools CalibratedGaps Between
Standards and Assignments Largest in Upper Grades
119
A Work in Poor Schools Would Earn Cs in
Affluent Schools
Source Prospects (ABT Associates, 1993), in
Prospects Final Report on Student Outcomes,
PES, DOE, 1997.
120
End of Course Exams Can Help, but teachers need

• Help in designing powerful lessons, units
• Help in developing consistent understanding of
  what quality work looks like
• Help with more regular assessments (e.g., 9
  weeks) of student progress.

121
Element Four Provide extra instruction for
students who arrive behind
122
When Kids Are Behind, Schools Must Provide More
Instruction and Support

• Kentucky provides extra time for struggling
  students in high-poverty schools
• Maryland offers extra dollars for 7th and 8th
  graders who need more support

123
And if you dont live in a smart state?

• Many schools, districts finding ways to double,
  even triple, amount of time spent on literacy,
  math.

124
Element Five Teachers Matter Big Time
125
Too Many High School Teachers Dont Have
Background in Subject They are Teaching
Source Ingersoll, Richard. American Educational
Researcher, The Problem of Underqualified
Teacher in American Secondary Schools, vol. 28,
no. 2, March 1999, p. 29.
126
Classes in High Poverty High Schools More Often
Taught by Underqualified Teachers
Teachers who lack a major or minor in the
field Source National Commission on Teaching and
Americas Future, What Matters Most Teaching for
Americas Future (p.16) 1996.
127
Math Science Classes With a High Percentage of
Minority Students Are More Often Taught by
Underqualified Teachers
Source Jeannie Oakes. Multiplying Inequalities
The Effects of Race, Social Class, and Tracking
on Opportunities to Learn Mathematics and Science
(Rand 1990)
1998 by The Education Trust, Inc.
128
Poor and Minority Students Get More
Inexperienced Teachers
Teachers with 3 or fewer years of experience.
High and low refer to top and bottom
quartiles. Source National Center for Education
Statistics, Monitoring Quality An Indicators
Report, December 2000.
129
High-Poverty Schools Get More Low-Scoring
Teachers
Teachers scoring in the bottom quartile on on
SAT/ACT. High-poverty schools have 2/3 or more
students eligible for reduced-price
lunch. Source Education Week, Quality Counts
2001, January 2001.
130
Even Within Schools, Often Big
Differences
131
Students in Low Track Classes Are More Often
Taught by Underqualified Teachers
Source Ingersoll, The Problem of Underqualified
Teachers in American Secondary Schools
Educational Researcher, Vol. 28, No 2 (March
1999) pp. 26-37
132
Regular Team Sample
133
Pre-IB Team Sample
134
11-12 IB/AP Teacher Sample
135
Impact?
136
1998 by The Education Trust, Inc.
137
1998 by The Education Trust, Inc.
138
1998 by The Education Trust, Inc.
139
If we had the courage and creativity to change
these patterns?
140
By our estimates from Texas schools, having an
above average teacher for five years running can
completely close the average gap between
low-income students and others. John Kain and
Eric Hanushek
141
FINALLY, A FEW WORDS ABOUT HOW WE TALK ABOUT
GAP-CLOSING AND NCLB
142
Statement of Purpose
Closing the achievement gap between high- and
low-performing children, especially the
achievement gaps between minority and nonminority
students, and between disadvantaged children and
their more advantaged peers. 20 U.S.C. 6301
143
Some leaders are talking about the challenges in
the new law one way
144
The federal government has put us in a bind . .
. Were never going to be able to meet the 100
mark. -Kerry Mazzoni, Californias secretary of
education Los Angeles Times September 25, 2002
145

• Requiring every group of students in every
  school to be proficient within 12 years, is like
  asking every kid to jump the Grand Canyon.
• educator, Connecticut
• June 10, 2002
• Associated Press

146
"It is so inflexible. If any group of kids fails
to meet the standard, the whole school is labeled
as failing. suburban superintendent (used to
doing extremely well under old system of
averages)
147
These are what statisticians call
outliersunexplained exceptions in any field
that do not provide models that can be
successfully emulated. Michael Jordan, for
example, is an outlier that he can play at such
a level does not mean that any basketball player
with good training can do so. -Richard
Rothstein The New York Times April 10, 2002
148

• "I have difficulty with the standards because
  they're so unattainable for so many of our
  students . . . We just don't have the same kids
  they have on Long Island or Orchard Park.
• Superintendent, New York October 21, 2002, The
  Buffalo News

149
They may as well have decreed that pigs can fly
. . . I think the State Board of Education is
dealing with reality, not myth. Some of these
politicians just have their heads in the
sand. -Wayne Johnson, CTA President Los Angeles
Times August 6, 2002
150
Think about the messages in what they say

• To parentsabout whose kids matter
• To studentsabout how much educators think they
  can learn and,
• To teachersabout whether they even have to try.

151
Other leaders are talking about the challenge in
very different ways.
152

• "We know the bar will always be raised. I call it
  a forklift, not a cart, because it's going
  forward and going up. But we are here to educate
  children, and we should have our standards
  raised."
• Martha Stone, assistant superintendent of
  curriculum and instruction, Irving School
  District, TX

153
"Neither poverty nor race is an excuse. All
children can rise to the standards and there are
many schools in the data that you have to prove
it. Rick Mills, Commissioner of Education,
New York. March 28, 2002, New York Times
154
With proper instruction, students here can blow
other kids away in the humanities. The more you
challenge them, the better they'll do.
Dolores Edwards Sullivan, an English teacher
in the predominantly African American Roosevelt
school district, whose 11th graders are starting
to earn higher marks on state Regents exams.
155
Yes, parents may have the greatest impact on how
their children come to us. But we have the
greatest impact on how they leave
us. Superintendent, North Carolina
156

• "If you love children, you can't say this law is
  a waste. . . It has to come down to someone
  making sure these kids are getting an education.
• Denise Allen, Kentucky
• November 13, 2002, Lexington Herald Leader

157
"We have shown our children can achieve
academically just like anyone else if we give
them the tools. Yes, it's more difficult here
because they come in with fewer skills. But they
don't come in any less intelligent."

• Cindy Chafee, Principal
• Centralia Elementary School, Anaheim

158
"At the end of the day, we are responsible for
every child. Will we do it? Certainly. Will we
look good early on? I doubt it." Superintendent
, Wake CountyJune 2, 2002 News and Observer (NC)
159
Yes, this is going to be hard. But how we
communicate will play a large role in whether
people will even try.
160
The Education Trust

• For More Information . . .
• www.edtrust.org
• DC 202-293-1217
• Oakland 510-465-6444

161
The Education Trust

• For More Information . . .
• www.edtrust.org
• DC 202-293-1217
• Oakland 510-465-6444